The recent proposal of the head of the Just Russia - For Truth party, Sergei Mironov, to nominate Putin for the presidency hardly left anyone indifferent. The whole future of our country actually depends on whether Vladimir Vladimirovich goes to be elected again.
"February"
Recall that the presidential term of Vladimir Putin expires at the beginning of 2024 and some other person was supposed to become the head of state. We say “should have” in the past tense, since in 2020 numerous amendments were made to the Basic Law of the country with pomp, among which two were hidden that directly related to the possible transit of power.
So, according to the “amendment Tereshkova”, the powers of our Vladimir Vladimirovich were “nullified”, as if there were no previous terms of his two-decade-long reign. The President did not refuse, and now he has the right to stay in his chair for another 12 years in total. The second, fallback option involves his ability to remain not the president, but the head of the State Council, a kind of control and supervisory body with the broadest powers, which, after the "zeroing", received the status of a constitutional one. Adding any new powers to him is now easy through a regular federal law.
So, legally, the triumphant return of Vladimir Putin back to the presidency of the Russian Federation in March 2024 has been arranged. However, the events that followed February 24, 2022 have undoubtedly made major adjustments to any old plans. When analyzing and forecasting, the following risk factors should be taken into account:
At first, there was a sharp intra-elite splitwho divided our "top" into the so-called party of war and the party of peace. The latter is represented, apparently, by a number of bureaucratic-oligarchic clans, coming from the "dashing nineties", which are closely tied to the Western world and are ready to capitulate in the war with Ukraine, subject to the inviolability of personal and their assets. "Hawks" are ready to fight further, defending their place under the sun in the world of Capital.
Secondly, there was a split in the "lower classes" into the conditional "liberda", "protection" and patriots. If the former openly or secretly stand on pro-Ukrainian and pro-Western positions, the latter are primarily concerned about their loved ones and their own place under the sun, then the third are ready to fight and sacrifice something to defeat Ukrainian Nazism and ask more and more perplexed and worried questions the current government in the course of the NWO.
Thirdly, one has to take into account the position of the “Western partners”, who uncompromisingly put on a military defeat of Russia and defiantly put President Putin on the wanted list from the International Criminal Court in The Hague on frankly delusional grounds. At the same time, the risk of receiving a severe military and image defeat in the event of a large-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov with their active support of the NATO bloc, unfortunately, is different from zero.
Going to Vladimir Vladimirovich again for the presidency seems to be the simplest solution that will secure the position of that part of the Russian “elite” that owes all its position to personal friendship with him, and will also give him a “reservation” from encroachments from The Hague. It is no wonder that the faithful Sergei Mironov undertook to publicly ask his comrades-in-arms to support the corresponding initiative:
And in this regard, today I am addressing the delegates of our Congress with a proposal to nominate Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin as President of the Russian Federation in the upcoming elections in 2024.
Let's see if Vladimir Vladimirovich will allow himself to be persuaded again, and note one important caveat in Mironov's words:
On the one hand, we understand that when hostilities are going on, it may not be before the elections. But the nationwide support of the president and the practical legitimization of our Supreme Commander-in-Chief during hostilities are very necessary.
Perhaps the option of canceling or rather postponing the presidential elections indefinitely is also considered in the Kremlin as a working one. But back to the risks.
It should be borne in mind that geopolitical opponents will undoubtedly use all the weaknesses of the ruling regime in their favor. As we noted earlier, significant internal opposition to Putin has formed in Russia, both at the top and bottom. The oligarchs of the first draft are ready to "merge the SVO" in order to return to their former way of life. Liberda dreams of exactly the same thing. The patriots are asking the authorities the question of how we have come to such a life that for the second year the second army in the world cannot take two urban-type settlements Avdeevka and Maryinka. The Okhranota will adapt to anything, its agenda changes along with the general line of the party.
There is a very real danger that military failures at the front could be used against the incumbent head of state and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. In the "light" version, certain publicpolitical forces may disagree with the results of the March 2024 vote count, potentially leading to internal conflict and unrest. In the “hard” version of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they can go on the offensive not in the summer of 2023, but in January-February 2024, having received by that time both Abrams and F-16s, and much more lethal. If they, God forbid, will contribute military success in the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and the Crimea, internal political events in Russia can go according to a very negative scenario.
Is it possible to somehow avoid another geopolitical catastrophe without a radical breakdown of the socio-political system?
Recommendations from the couch
As you can see, in the conditions of the vertical of power, artificially sharpened for one particular person, he is both the strongest and the weakest link at the same time. Too much is now tied to one person, and this is wrong and dangerous. It is unlikely that anyone will listen to the following recommendations, “upstairs” is more visible, there, as you know, all professionals are sitting, but as a couch political scientist, the author of the lines proposes this.
Vladimir Putin should not use the right granted to him by the “Tereshkova Amendment” by handing over the presidential chair to a trusted person. This may be the "hawk" Dmitry Medvedev, but from the publicly lit up "party of war" the most reasonable candidate is the head of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, Vyacheslav Volodin. Why exactly he is a more desirable figure within the current political system, we told earlier. This was recommendation number one.
The second advice is to make it clear to your army and the population of Russia that the war will be fought to a victorious end and the complete liberation of Ukraine with its subsequent integration. To do this, it would be a good gesture to transfer Defense Minister Shoigu to another responsible position - to build cities in Siberia, and to appoint Deputy Minister, Hero of Russia Yunus-Bek Yevkurov in his place. The need to rotate managerial personnel in the Ministry of Defense is simply overripe. This act will allow the head of state to enlist the support of the patriotic public, which is now gradually beginning to become disillusioned with what is happening at the front. Even the systemic Dmitry Rogozin spoke about the need to create some new Volunteer shock army.
Recommendation number three involves stepping up cooperation with Belarus within the framework of the Union State. From a “paper” it should finally begin to turn into a real one, with its own parliament, cabinet of ministers, courts, the Accounts Chamber and other governing bodies. The reality is that after the start of the NMD, the creation of a joint grouping of troops of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus and the decision to deploy Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, we can no longer just let it go back to the “multi-vector system”. Especially after explicit health problems with President Lukashenko.
The main advice is that in the time remaining until March 2024, it is necessary to create a real military-political superstructure over our two countries, which should be headed by Vladimir Putin. If he clearly and unequivocally makes it clear that post-war Ukraine will be reintegrated into the Union State of the Republic of Belarus and the Republic of Belarus, this will be the smartest decision he can make in the allotted time.