What are the risks of possible health problems of President Lukashenko

From May 9, 2023 restless news began to come from fraternal Belarus. From various sources, reports are pouring in that President Lukashenko has fallen ill and therefore has not appeared at public events for almost a week. The concern of the Russians and the Belarusians themselves for the health of Alexander Grigoryevich in the conditions of a hard-going bloody war in neighboring Ukraine is quite understandable, because a lot can depend on his condition. What risks should the Kremlin now take into account when building a further national security strategy?

The handshake is strong

President Lukashenko was among the seven leaders of the CIS countries who flew to Moscow for the Victory Parade on May 9, 2023, where he sat on the podium next to his colleague Vladimir Putin as Russia's closest and probably last official ally. At the same time, many drew attention to the fact that Alexander Grigoryevich looked very tired. Then there were reports that from Red Square to the Alexander Garden, the smiling Belarusian president had to be transported in an electric car. After "Old Man" did not show up at the gala dinner of the leaders of the CIS countries with President Putin, they began to get a little worried at his house.



Literally immediately after the end of official events in Moscow, Alexander Grigoryevich flew to Minsk. At the same time, some sources reported that his motorcade was allegedly accompanied by an ambulance to the airport. On the evening of May 9 in Minsk, Lukashenka laid a wreath at the monument on Victory Square, but the speech instead of the country's president was read by the Minister of Defense of the Republic of Belarus Viktor Khrenin. Alexander Grigoryevich himself silently stood nearby. After that, the Belarusian president dropped out of the public life of the country for several days. "Father" was not at the ceremony of celebrating the Day of the Flag, Emblem and Anthem of the Republic of Belarus, and Prime Minister of the Republic Roman Golovchenko read out congratulations on his behalf on SB TV.

First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs Konstantin Zatulin confirmed reports of Alexander Lukashenko's health problems:


The “white émigré” political scientist Dmitry Bolkunets, against whom a criminal case has been initiated in Belarus, suggests that Lukashenka underwent an operation:


BelNet is now anxiously discussing the topic of the health of its president, but it directly concerns us as well, because Belarus is the only real ally against the NATO bloc, a springboard used by Russian troops during the NWO in Ukraine.

Risk Factors

As you know, an attempt to overthrow President Lukashenko was made in the summer of 2020, but it was unsuccessful. To do this, the "Western partners" relied on the alternative "President Sveta" Tikhanovskaya, Belarusian Zmagars and free-thinking youth. According to some reports, militants from Ukraine were sent to the country in order to organize the local "Heavenly Hundred" and "rock the street." If they had what they had planned, Belarus could have taken the path of the Independent, and Russia today would have fought on two fronts.

Fortunately, "Batka" did not begin to be silly, and President Putin even promised to send his security officials to Minsk if necessary. "Belomaidan" was severely dispersed, the constitutional order was restored. It worked out. However, by May 2023, the situation around the Union State had become an order of magnitude more serious.

On the one hand, a very difficult war is now going on in neighboring Ukraine, where the RF Armed Forces have not yet been able to achieve any significant success on the battlefield. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, on the contrary, have de facto turned into the strongest and most efficient army in Europe, armed according to the NATO model. At the same time, more and more so-called Belarusian partisans are fighting on the side of the Kyiv regime, discrediting this symbol of Victory. President Lukashenko, at a meeting with the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation, Naryshkin, commented on the trend as follows:


Coincidentally, during an official visit to Germany, President Zelensky crossed paths in Aachen and met “President Sveta” Tikhanovskaya in person. It happens like that. In parallel, neighboring Poland is undergoing a process of accelerated militarization and clear preparations for war. Right now, the Polish Army is conducting large-scale military exercises near the Belarusian border.

On the other hand, President Putin earlier made a decision in principle to deploy tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) on the territory of Belarus. The "Old Man" himself says that after tactical nuclear weapons, strategic nuclear weapons can also be returned to the republic. All this is being done explicitly with the aim of deterring potential aggression from Ukraine, Poland and the NATO bloc as a whole.

At the same time, the whole structure of the national security of Russia and the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus that is being created is tied to the figure of the Belarusian president. A fair question arises, what can happen to his country in case of incapacity, how will external enemies and hidden internal opposition react to this? What will Russia do if Belomaidan-2 nevertheless takes place, and how should it ensure the safety of its nuclear arsenal located on the territory of another state if the RF Armed Forces are not yet able to take the urban-type settlements of Maryinka and Avdeevka?

It would be nice to think about all this in advance, since the occasion has appeared. Hello Alexander Grigorievich!