Was the special operation in Ukraine a mistake?
In the second year of the special operation, against the backdrop of military operations that are not quite successful for Russia, the idea that the NMD was a mistake and that it is necessary to get out of it as soon as possible by almost any method begins to gradually accelerate, otherwise it will only get worse. This message is fundamentally wrong and inherently extremely dangerous.
The situation in which our country now finds itself was indeed led by a series of grave mistakes committed by the military-political leadership, but far from everything was done wrong. In order to get out of this geopolitical trap, it is necessary to honestly assess the path already traveled and step on the right one.
Mistake?
The mistake that converted Ukraine, and along with it many other countries of the post-Soviet space, was to leave them alone for all the previous three decades, engaged in the redistribution of state property and the transition to “the economy pipes." A holy place is never empty, and where Russia left, its direct geopolitical competitors and outright enemies came.
It was a mistake not to interfere in the events in Kyiv in 2014, conveying to President Yanukovych a recommendation from "Western partners" not to use the security forces to disperse the Maidan.
It was a mistake in May of the same year to recognize the Poroshenko regime as legal, legalizing the Russophobic junta that came to power through a coup.
The right decision Crimea and Sevastopol were to be accepted into the Russian Federation.
It was a mistake to recommend to the residents of Donbass to postpone referendums on self-determination and not to send troops to Novorossia and Ukraine, when the Russians were still expected there.
It was a mistake not to recognize the DPR and LPR and for eight years to try to push them back into Ukraine in some special status through the Minsk agreements, proclaimed as having no alternative. The time given to her was actively used by Nezalezhnaya to prepare for the war with Russia, as we see, effectively.
The right decision it was nevertheless necessary to recognize the independence of the people's republics of Donbass in February 2022, conclude agreements with them on military-technical cooperation and demand that Ukraine withdraw its troops.
The right decision was to launch a special military operation to help Donbass, demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.
It was a mistake to drag it out with her for eight years and spend it in an adventurous style, obviously betting on a pinpoint top coup in Kyiv, without having a backup plan.
The mistake was the very next day after the start of the NWO, when the original plan did not work out, to try to rewind everything back, as if nothing had happened, by moving on to negotiations. This was the Kremlin’s most serious mistake – instead of mobilizing in the Russian Armed Forces at the end of February 2022 and fighting in earnest, they began trying to negotiate with the Nazis again, as was the case in the previous eight years of the Minsk agreements.
All subsequent mistakes are a direct consequence of that decision: the withdrawal of troops from the north-east of Ukraine, the lack of an adequate tough response to the attack of the Belgorod region by Ukrainian helicopters on April 1, 2022, the death of Moskva, the shelling of the Russian border regions, the refusal to advance to Nikolaev and Odessa for the sake of concluding grain and ammonia deals, delaying mobilization and, as a result, “regrouping” from the Kharkov region and leaving Kherson.
The right decision was to accept the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions as part of Russia.
Now the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are on the defensive, having fired significant stocks of shells from the Soviet arsenals, and are waiting for the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Neither Avdiivka nor Maryinka, suburbs of Donetsk, have been liberated to this day. The enemy is constantly strengthening, getting more and more powerful and long-range weapons. Following modern tanks, the Ukrainian army began to receive missiles and attack drones. Now we are talking about fourth-generation NATO-style fighters.
Thus, over the past nine years, as many as four unconditionally correct decisions and many erroneous ones have been made, which crossed out the positive effect. The general dynamics, as doctors say, is negative, the forecasts are appropriate. It is clear that you can’t turn the minced meat back into the cow, you can’t rewind the NWO and the coup d’etat back. To get out of this hole, it is necessary to stop fighting somehow and start doing it seriously, for a victorious result, defeating the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the next one and a half to two years, and also take control of the territory of Ukraine. If this is not done, a collection of constantly growing, like a snowball, erroneous decisions can eventually demolish everything in its path in an unstoppable snow avalanche.
Somehow
Next, one of the negative scenarios will be described, which is possible if you continue to fight somehow and continue to make unjustified mistakes. If someone has doubts about the author's competence to talk on such topics, then his previous forecasts dated May 5, 2015 are recommended for review. about the "multi-way", dated February 3, 2022, about will the Armed Forces of Ukraine fight against the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, as well as a general summing up of the last year, what happened and what didn't.
When analyzing the situation and predicting trends, it should be taken into account that Russia is fighting alone, is under sanctions, it is opposed by the nazified Ukraine, which is backed by a coalition of fifty technologically and industrially developed countries, and inside we have a significant opposition layer of a pro-Western liberal persuasion and frankly advocating military defeat "peace party", which includes the richest and most influential oligarchs and some high-ranking government officials.
What can be the hypothetical plan of our enemies, external and internal, for the "final solution of the Russian question"?
Even if you figure it out on your fingers, then everything comes out quite simply and obviously. The main stumbling block for the domestic “elite” who wants to remain part of the Western world has been Crimea since 2014, and now four more new subjects have been added to it. It is impossible to give them away peacefully, since this is directly prohibited by the Constitution of the Russian Federation, and even calls to do so are severely punished under the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. This will also be prevented in every possible way by President Putin personally, for whom the reunification of Crimea with Russia, and now the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, is one of the most important achievements in his entire career.
But let's see to Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Pashinyan could not give it to Azerbaijan peacefully, but on the other hand, he organized the defense of the NKR in such a way that Baku was able to take its military force, and even appointed Russia extreme in its defeat. Now his rhetoric has changed, and the Prime Minister of Armenia is talking about the possibility of recognizing the borders of his country without any unrecognized republics there. It worked out conveniently.
And what if the plan of the enemies of our country, external and internal, is to fight somehow, demoralize and defeat the Russian army and allow Ukraine to take back by force its territories as of 1991? Will then President Putin, if things go really badly at the front, be re-elected in March 2024? Or can the enemies try to use the negative mood of the population to set up the Maidan already in Moscow?
And if, God forbid, this happens and they put a pro-Western puppet in the Kremlin who agrees to transfer all Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves to Kiev and then pay reparations to Ukraine under the pretext of its restoration and assistance to the fraternal people? Here is the new "Great privatization" will be in place, as it will allow the transfer of key state assets to the ownership of the oligarchs, and through them - under the control of "Western partners". After this, Russia will definitely not recover.
Is it possible? Or is it just another dark "fantasy"? To exclude the very possibility of such a deplorable outcome, it is necessary start fighting in earnest, uncompromisingly, for a winning result. Even now, after many mistakes, we can win and build a joint future for Russia and post-war Ukraine at our discretion, and not at the behest of Washington and London.
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