The division of Ukraine between Russia and Poland will not be the end of the statehood of the first

The division of Ukraine between Russia and Poland will not be the end of the statehood of the first

The author of the lines was prompted to write this note by the opinion stubbornly spread in our society that the war for Ukraine will end with its division between Russia and Poland, as well as other Eastern European countries, which supposedly will be the best outcome. Within the framework of this installation, there is supposedly no need to go to any Western Ukraine of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and NM LDNR, leaving it to Warsaw. This is a big mistake.


In promoting the thesis that the war on the territory of Nezalezhnaya will end with the division of its territory between Russia and Poland, for example, the Ukrainian-Russian video blogger Yuriy Podolyaka, who has gained unprecedented popularity, noted. The same idea, in one variation or another, is now repeated by many readers of the Reporter. Say, Poles, Hungarians and Romanians will enter Western Ukraine, take it for themselves, and Russia will get everything else. The state of Ukraine itself will then allegedly cease to exist, which Warsaw, Budapest and Bucharest recognize, and this will be a brilliant end to the special operation. Unfortunately, things are not as simple as many would like.

Alas, the conclusion that the history of Ukrainian “independence” will end with its division between Russia and its Eastern European neighbors is incorrect, since it is based on false premises. This needs to be discussed in more detail.

At first, all the previous 5 months in the Kremlin argued that the purpose of the special operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine is not to change its ruling regime. However, a few days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a new statement:

The Russian and Ukrainian people will continue to live together. We will definitely help the Ukrainian people get rid of the regime, which is absolutely anti-people and anti-historical.

The changes in the rhetoric are indeed positive, but so far there is no specifics about what exactly Moscow is ready to offer the Ukrainians in return for the Zelensky regime, within what borders this “new” Ukraine will be formed. Beyond the brackets is the question of how the Eastern European neighbors, who have their views on Western Ukraine, will react to all this.

Secondly, section section, as they say, discord. Frankly, the author of these lines previously also considered the possibility of some agreements between Moscow and Warsaw, Budapest and Bucharest that parts of Western Ukraine that once belonged to them could go to them. However, always emphasizedthat this scenario can only be acceptable if Galicia, Transcarpathia and Bukovina officially go to Poland, Hungary and Romania, following the results of a referendum similar to the Crimean one.

It really could solve a lot of problems. The Poles, undoubtedly, would have carried out the "debanderization" of Galicia much tougher and more efficiently than the modern Russian bureaucracy is capable of. Everything that would happen on the other side of the border would no longer be our problem. However, this would also introduce new difficulties. The NATO bloc de facto and de jure would move even closer to Russia. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation would lose the land corridor to Transcarpathia, which the RF Armed Forces need as the most convenient foothold in Eastern Europe. About how important the Carpathian Corridor is to our country, we told earlier.

Note that everything described above would be relevant in the event of the official accession of Western Ukraine to its Eastern European neighbors. What if it's unofficial?

It should be remembered that on the other side, too, they are not fools and they see all these "cunning plans" of ours perfectly. Here, let's say, Warsaw will indeed introduce its troops into the territory of Galicia and Volhynia. The evil irony lies in the fact that Kyiv itself can ask for this in order to release the Armed Forces of Ukraine for operations against the Russian Armed Forces on the Eastern and Southern fronts. Suppose that Nezalezhnaya suffers a crushing defeat in all directions, and Russian troops again go to Kyiv. So, what is next? And then the Ukrainian government simply moves to Lviv, which becomes the new capital, and Ukraine shrinks to Western. Will this be a victory for Russia? Partly yes. But not at all complete, since Nezalezhnaya will legally remain, territorially - in Galicia under the "roof" of Poland, a member of the NATO bloc.

But what if, on principle, Warsaw does not begin to annex Galicia, as many of our compatriots naively expect? Instead, in Lvov will be signed union about the formation of a confederate state of Poland and Ukraine, which will set as the goal the restoration of the independence and territorial integrity of the former Independent?

Once again, Poland is a member of the NATO bloc. That is, there are grounds for a future clash between Russia and the entire North Atlantic Alliance, which could happen, as we have suggested, already on the horizon of 2025-2027, when Europe will get rid of its critical energy dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, and Japan will be able to join the conflict after it, raising the issue of the Kuriles. Fiction? Not at all.

Checks and balances


So, we have established that the conclusion about the completion of the history of Ukrainian statehood through its division between Russia, on the one hand, Poland, Hungary and Romania, on the other, is erroneous. Taking control of the Polish border by the RF Armed Forces after entering the Odessa region to Transnistria is uncontested if the Kremlin really wants to complete the special operation with at least an intermediate big victory. This will solve two giant problems at once.

At first, so the supply of Western-made weapons and ammunition, fuel and fuels and lubricants for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be blocked. Drop the Kyiv regime will become a matter of time, not great.

Secondly, a window of opportunity will open for solving the problem of the Kaliningrad region. This exclave is cut off from the main territory of the Russian Federation by Belarus, Lithuania and Poland. To break through the so-called Suwalki corridor by force now, when the RF Armed Forces are involved in a long-term armed conflict with Ukraine, getting involved in a direct confrontation with the NATO bloc, is madness. But there is one option.

Like us they said earlier, in the event of the capture of Galicia by Russian troops, an object for bargaining between Warsaw and Moscow may appear. In exchange for the construction of an extraterritorial highway from Belarus to the Kaliningrad region, Poland could receive Galicia through the Polish part of Suwalkia. And here I would like to answer a number of comments from our readers, who, of course, know better. Someone quite reasonably noted that the Poles, at the instigation of Washington, could then start to “do dirty tricks” by blocking this land corridor for Russia under any pretext. Another, a resident of the Kaliningrad region, said through his lips that he did not need any Suvalkia, he would be given a convenient highway through Lithuania.

We answer. I would like to ask the one to whom the route through Lithuania is given, but does Vilnius generally agree with these “Wishlist” of his? And if you don't agree, is this "sofa geopolitician" ready to pick up a machine gun himself and go to win such a convenient highway through Lithuania from a country - a member of the NATO bloc? Regarding the fact that the land corridor through the Polish part of Suwalkia can be blocked, the remark is very true, and it needs clarification.

Remember, everyone in the Kremlin tried to negotiate with Tokyo on a regime for the joint economic use of the Kuriles? At the same time, the islands were legally supposed to remain Russian, but in fact they were to be used by Japan. Something similar could be organized in Western Ukraine. Hypothetically, a quadripartite agreement between Russia, Belarus, Poland and post-war Ukraine “On the special status of Eastern Cresses” is possible. For example, Galicia remains de jure Ukrainian, but in fact - Polish, subject to its complete, 100% demilitarization and "debanderization". In exchange for the regime of its “economic use”, Warsaw provides Russia with an extraterritorial land corridor from Belarus to the Kaliningrad region. If, for some reason, Suvalkiya is blocked by the Poles, the Russian Federation receives the right to “militarize” the Eastern Cresses by sending its troops there and expelling all foreign citizens, except for Ukrainians. At the same time, the Transcarpathian bridgehead and the land corridor to it are retained by the RF Ministry of Defense.

It turns out a sort of system of checks and balances, which may well work. But for this, Russian troops must enter Western Ukraine. First.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 26 July 2022 13: 29
    +6
    The NATO bloc de facto and de jure would move even closer to Russia.

    And so, in the Tribaltic, NATO is not so close? Galicia in exchange for Polish lands, according to an equal number of hectares. So it will be more correct. It just doesn't look like the RF Armed Forces are even going to take Odessa in the near future. And without Odessa, there is absolutely nothing to do in Galicia.
    Meanwhile, Kyiv may well replenish ammunition from the Transnistrian warehouses if the RF Armed Forces are slow. And then new losses and "gestures of good will" are possible.
    1. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
      Pat Rick 26 July 2022 13: 46
      0
      Kyiv may well replenish ammunition from the Transnistrian warehouses if the RF Armed Forces are slow.

      Yes, yes, with all the equipment.
      The warehouses are guarded by a contingent of Russian troops in Transnistria.
  2. GIS Offline GIS
    GIS (Ildus) 26 July 2022 13: 32
    0
    But for this, Russian troops must enter Western Ukraine. First.

    well, maybe not the first, but the psheks will be weighed notably
  3. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
    Pat Rick 26 July 2022 13: 42
    +2
    Another section of the skin of an unkilled boar's coming out.

    On the proposed map, an unidentified state formation is indicated in green.
  4. sat2004 Online sat2004
    sat2004 26 July 2022 14: 03
    +7
    Britain and America need to leave Europe with part of Ukraine only for the further spread of fascism to the countries of the former USSR. As long as there is NATO, Europe will do all sorts of dirty tricks on Russia. And the rise in the standard of living of the Russians will shock the Europeans.
    1. patxilek Offline patxilek
      patxilek (patxilek) 26 July 2022 20: 20
      +1
      Como Europeo, queremos estar con Rusia, pero nuestros políticos obedecen dictados de la Agenda 2030 de Klaus Schwab y Grupo Bilderberg-Rothschild & Co. Todos tenemos grandes deudas y hacen lo que les piden. Necesitamos la ayuda de Rusia para volver a ser Soberanos de nuestras decisionses.
  5. steelmaker Online steelmaker
    steelmaker 26 July 2022 14: 21
    +2
    Still small, but I can judge
    and no one will blame me -
    there is no country more beautiful than Russia!
    I know this conclusion in advance!
    Grow up - I'll travel the world
    and I am sure, to the shores of the Native,
    there will be an irresistible pull,
    even from there - but I will return to them!
    Because I'm Russian in spirit!
    Because Russia is my Earth!
    Because my mother is a Slav
    and gave birth to me in Russia!
    Because here is my home and school!
    Grandfather, father and all my friends
    Russian beloved nature,
    native speech, my family is here!
    Because my great-grandfather by blood,
    for our Russia - lay down in the ground!
    The feat of our warriors heroes
    I know, more than one people remembers!
    From the brown plague to the whole Earth
    Russian soldiers saved.
    The feat of their oblivion is not subject,
    I bow to them from the waist to the ground!
    "Dogs" are now barking at their mother - Russia
    I will take this pain with her.
    I will grow, get stronger, mature
    and you dear, I will help!
    You got a little sick right now
    nothing Russian girl be strong!
    And as before, rely on me
    don't give up mother - hold on!
    Will you rise - great and mighty
    bloom like an apple tree in spring!
    For me you will be the best!
    The most beloved and Native!


    (Lev Protasov, 10 years old from Yekaterinburg, 2022)
  6. Galina D Offline Galina D
    Galina D (Galina D) 26 July 2022 15: 28
    -1
    So already Alaska about ..., stop barrying the lands
    1. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
      Pat Rick 26 July 2022 17: 28
      -2
      Alaska was sold by Alexander II over 150 years ago. And he did the right thing.
      It's time to calm down.
  7. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 26 July 2022 18: 10
    +1
    the opinion stubbornly spread in our society that the war for Ukraine will end with its division between Russia and Poland, as well as other Eastern European countries, which supposedly will be the best outcome.

    The truth is mixed with lies. They say about the section - it is. But the vast majority consider it a necessary measure. Personally, I have never seen anyone write or say that a section is the best option. Zelensky may think so. But he didn't tell me about it personally.
  8. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 26 July 2022 18: 17
    0
    there is no specifics about what exactly Moscow is ready to offer Ukrainians in return for the Zelensky regime, within what borders this “new” Ukraine will be formed.

    Many still do not understand that the time when they persuade, promise and bribe has passed.
    And it looks like the Kremlin is not at all worried about promising and explaining something to the so-called Ukrainians. I support this behavior of the authorities.
    The inhabitants of the former Ukraine boasted that they lived in a democracy, that their power depended on the will of the people, and so on. Let them eat this democracy with all the holes.
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  11. amon Offline amon
    amon (Amon Amon) 26 July 2022 22: 38
    -3
    Judging by the chewing of snot, the Russians will not be the first to enter there, the Chukchi, Tatars and all sorts of Ethiopians will go there before them, and only then the Poles and more than one century will pass! Glory to Allah and Buddha with friends! Amen and on it!
  12. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 26 July 2022 23: 45
    0
    It is not a fact that the war will end with the division of Ukraine, but this would be the best and most satisfying end to the NWO.

    In the event of the approach of Russian troops to Galicia, Transcarpathia and Bukovina, there is no reason to doubt the results of the referendum on their accession to Poland, Hungary and Romania

    One of the two main tasks of the state is to capture foreign productive forces - territory, minerals, people, tools, technologies, etc. This predetermines the interest of neighboring state formations in their acquisitions at the expense of Ukraine under various pretexts - the protection of compatriots, denazification and demilitarization, etc., etc.

    Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania are NATO members, and in the event of their territorial acquisitions due to the division of Ukraine with the Russian Federation, NATO will have no choice but to recognize the new borders of its members - Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and the Russian Federation as well.
    It’s just a pity that the Russian Federation does not set the task of depriving Ukraine of its statehood, which means that even if it is partitioned, some part of it will retain statehood and be accepted into the EU=NATO.

    The Kaliningrad province is a hostage to NATO and the exchange of this Russian enclave for the territories of Ukraine occupied during the NVO cannot be in principle.

    From St. Petersburg to NATO - two hours by car, which is many times closer than from Kharkov to Moscow.
  13. Vladimir1155 Offline Vladimir1155
    Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 27 July 2022 09: 07
    0
    I fully support the author, not to give an inch of the land of the former Ukraine to anyone, consider only an exchange, and not all of Galicia, but a tiny part of it corresponding in price to the Suvalka swamps, almost unsuitable for economic activity
  14. Sergei N Offline Sergei N
    Sergei N (Sergey N) 27 July 2022 09: 52
    +1
    The author, there are too many "what if" and "let's say" in the article!
  15. Igor Igorevich Offline Igor Igorevich
    Igor Igorevich (Igor) 27 July 2022 12: 50
    +1
    Pay no attention to this author. The words are beautiful, but the judgments of a teenager. I already stumbled upon his second "essay" on the site and everything is in the same vein - a vision of the world like a child's.
    1. Arthur b. Offline Arthur b.
      Arthur b. (Arthur Borisoglebsky) 30 July 2022 18: 51
      0
      Yes, I agree, apparently the author is not a pro. I would like to ask the author a question, what is Ukraine??? Ban Ke-moon, UN Secretary General once said that Ukraine has not registered its borders with the UN and is not a sovereign state. At the moment, this is the outskirts of the USSR, and everyone knows who the successor of the Union is, I will not repeat. And how will the state of Ukraine be preserved after the end of the NWO??? This will already be Little Russia as part of a single and indivisible Russia. Or will we again create separatism for ourselves??? Some are apparently bored without problems ... Second, the experiment with the Japanese to develop the Kuriles did not take place (because politics should be determined by the winners and not the losers and rather harshly!), What's the point of playing humanism again but with the Poles ??? They see it as our weakness. Most of East Prussia, recaptured by the Soviet Army and abundantly watered with the blood of our soldiers, and this recaptured part was transferred to Poland after the Second World War. And why do we have to agree with someone again??? ps Ukrainian-okrainets is primarily a reference to the area, that is, a person living on the outskirts of the Russian Empire (until 1917) and a Kazakh, Yakut, Tajik, Turkmen could also be an outskirts. There were Little Russians, Carpatho-Russians, Rusyns, etc. in Russia. Can we return to the real names of the peoples inhabiting the western part of Russia-Russia ???
      1. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
        Pat Rick 31 July 2022 07: 10
        0
        as part of a single and indivisible Russia.

        The official name of Russia is "Russian Федерация". If this is a federation, then it is no longer "united". This is nonsense.

        There were Little Russians, Carpatho-Russians, Rusyns, etc. in Russia.

        I can agree with the Little Russians, and the rest lived on the territory of other states.
  16. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 2 August 2022 16: 35
    0
    Washington forbade Putin to carry out the offensive. Here Putin stands for 4 months in one place, waiting for an order. The offensive is led by the LDNR.