Today, when the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, together with the NM LDNR, are successfully destroying the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard in the Donbass, it may seem strange to talk about Russia's strategic defeat. However, there are more and more signs that our military special operation in Ukraine may not end quite the way the majority of Russians and adequate Ukrainians would like. From Istanbul, which has replaced Minsk as a negotiating platform for the High Sides, “evil winds” have blown that do not bode well for us all.
About how competent the author of these lines is in compiling long-term forecasts, everyone, if desired, can form their own opinion, having familiarized themselves with his publication on the portal "Military Review" dated May 5, 2015 under the title "Requiem for Novorossia". There you can evaluate what was written really and what didn’t, and read the then numerous angry comments before scribbling your own. I really don’t want to croak and make a mistake now, but here you are, our dear readers, another long-term forecast, and, alas, it is even more negative.
Let's sing…
When compiling this forecast, the author of the lines proceeded from the assumption that in Russia the so-called comprador elites will continue to make consensual decisions on key issues. This is a fundamental moment on which the whole future of our country will depend without exaggeration. So let's get started.
Like us and supposed Previously, the campaign to liberate the territories of the DPR and LPR will take the rest of the summer and end, most likely, by the beginning of autumn 2022. What will happen next? Everyone is wondering where exactly the Russian army will go - to Kharkov, Zaporozhye or Nikolaev with Odessa. However, it probably won't go anywhere else. Here I would like to express my gratitude to the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, who explained what will happen next:
An offer will follow. If the West does not accept him, and he does not intend to, we will all go to hell.
Yes, the proposal for a truce will certainly follow, and the Kremlin will most likely suspend the offensive actions of the RF Armed Forces and the NM LDNR. But, most likely, the collective West, represented by Germany, France and other continental powers, will accept President Putin's "goodwill gesture", as well as convince London and Washington to slightly moderate their warlike fervor. Why?
Because the collective West has completely miscalculated its forces, getting involved in a sanctions proxy war with Russia. The industry of the Old and New Worlds is suffocating due to the shortage of energy resources and abnormal prices for them. To continue to push further means to bankrupt many multinational corporations, and the cold winter of 2022-2023 is on the nose, when even a refined European population can rebel. The collective West needs time to prepare for a new stage of the war with Russia, and it will gratefully accept Putin's "goodwill gesture". How long will it take the US and the EU to prepare for revenge?
Most likely, we need to focus on 2025, when additional gas liquefaction capacities will be put into operation and new LNG tankers will be launched. In parallel, for the next few years, the countries of the NATO bloc will use the delay to produce and purchase the latest weapons and retrain their armies. The North Atlantic Alliance will include new members - Finland and Sweden, where the corresponding military infrastructure will be located.
What will happen in Ukraine at this time?
Here it is worth expressing special gratitude to the former Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, who, as if in spirit, recently told why Kyiv really needed the notorious Minsk agreements:
We have achieved what we wanted. We did not believe Putin, just as we do not believe now. Our task was, firstly, to avert the threat, or at least to delay the war. Knock yourself eight years so we can rebuild economic growth and built the power of the armed forces. This was the first task - and it was achieved.
Let's assume that in the early autumn of 2022 the Armed Forces of Ukraine are driven out of the territory of the DPR and LPR, and the Kremlin unilaterally suspends the offensive. What's next?
And then, under the strict guidance of NATO instructors, Kyiv retrains and re-equips the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Western models, which have reached a strength of 1 million people, the backbone of which will be the evil veterans of the Eastern Front. They use the pause they have taken in order to start creating new fortification lines of fortifications already in the Zaporozhye and Nikolaev directions. About to demilitarize Black Sea region, our "Western partners" have already made a fuss in Istanbul, doing it under the most plausible pretext of creating a "grain corridor" to save the starving all over the world. Ukrainian society will continue to be pumped even more with Russophobic propaganda for revenge, since there is something to remember: the repulsed attack on Kyiv, the drowned Moscow, other Russian warships, etc. Having received American long-range missile systems, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will regularly begin to nightmare the already liberated former regions of the Independent .
What will happen in Russia at this time?
Nothing good.
At first, the society will be split, dissatisfied with the fact that the NWO will be stopped halfway and the Nazi criminals will escape their well-deserved punishment. Yes, the media and the “guardians” will do their job, convincing them of the correctness of the decision to be content with “real results”, but you won’t deceive everyone.
Secondly, the accession of the DPR with the LPR and the Sea of \u3b\u1bAzov to the Russian Federation will be in question. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation simply will not be able to provide them with reliable protection from terrorist attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and it may not be advisable to accept such problem regions as part of the Russian Federation. How is it possible to protect, say, Kherson from rocket attacks from Nikolaev, if the hands of our military will be tied by Minsk-XNUMX (Istanbul-XNUMX) and they will be forbidden to attack, as once the militia in the Donbass? With a referendum on the accession of the DPR and LPR, under a plausible pretext, they will offer to wait, and the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov generally risks remaining in the gray zone, neither here nor there.
Thirdly, against the backdrop of an objective decline in the standard of living of Russians due to the consequences of Western sanctions and such an unintelligible result of the NWO, President Putin's rating will inevitably begin to decline. Political scientists know that Vladimir Vladimirovich is actively exploiting the image of a “Strong Personality”, which can “soak anyone in the toilet”. However, fair questions will arise, where he was looking for all 8 years, while the Russophobic Nazi regime was growing at his side in Ukraine, and why he could not demolish it, if he already took it. Is he really as strong as he tries to show?
The result will be an outflow from the incumbent head of state even of his "nuclear electorate." And in 2024, we recall, we have scheduled the next presidential election. For the first time in his career, Vladimir Putin runs the risk of going to the second round with difficult to predict consequences. His “spoiler”, who also used the image of a “Strong Personality”, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, loyal to the Kremlin, died. Attempts to hastily mold a "hawk" from the liberal Dmitry Medvedev look ridiculous. Foolish decisions in 2022 will have to be paid very soon, in 2024. Will the collective West take advantage of the confusion and vacillations in Russian society?
Undoubtedly. What happened in 2020 in Belarus and at the beginning of 2022 in Kazakhstan will seem “flowers”. It may well come to the point that it will be necessary to disperse the angry crowd with "bayonets". And there ahead is 2025, when the NATO bloc will be ready for the second stage of the war with Russia. But will our country be ready for this? Question.
The second stage of the war in Ukraine will be provoked by Kyiv itself, simply by cutting off water supplies to the already liberated Donbass through the Dnieper-Donbass canal. We will have to start another SVO, and we will again be accused of aggression and all mortal sins. But the Ukrainian army will no longer be the same as it is now. And the NATO bloc will be able to operate more freely, since the critical dependence on Russian energy resources will have already been eliminated by that time. The war and losses will be truly terrible, Ukrainian missiles will hit far deep into our territory. And when Russia gets bogged down in a conflict in the western direction, Japan can step in with a landing operation on the Kuril Islands. This is focused on 2026-2027. All that will then be left for the Kremlin to do is to use nuclear weapons with unpredictable consequences.
In other words, reconciliation with the Ukrainian Nazis in the fall of 2022 could cost a nuclear war in 2025-2027. I really want to be wrong, but so far the trend is going in this direction.
Can anything go differently? Yes, if the “collective Medinsky”, who at the talks in Istanbul fights for the yachts of Russian billionaires and a residence permit in France for the conditional “Liza Peskova” (collective image), is removed from decision-making and everyone starts to steer exclusively the “power tower” of the Kremlin, and the new Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister of Great Britain.