Why is it possible to unblock the Kaliningrad region only through Poland


The blockade of the Kaliningrad region, actually started by Lithuania, makes it necessary to look for ways to solve this geopolitical problem. At the same time, the governor of the Russian exclave Alikhanov himself sees it in the construction of a certain route, railway and, possibly, automobile, through Lithuanian territory. A good alternative to cutting through the so-called Suwalki corridor by force, but will Vilnius itself agree with this, or rather, the forces behind it?


Suwalki dead end


The problem of the Kaliningrad region was formed after the collapse of the USSR, when this westernmost region of ours was cut off from the main territory of the country by Belarus, Lithuania and Poland. Fortunately, Belarus is an official ally of the Russian Federation, but Warsaw, Vilnius, and the rest of the Baltic states are part of the anti-Russian NATO military bloc. The problem is aggravated by the fact that the Kaliningrad region is of great military importance, since it is here that the divisions of the Iskander-M OTRK are located and the ships of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Federation are based, carrying Caliber cruise missiles, capable of pointwise hitting the infrastructure of the North Atlantic alliance in Europe.

Obviously, the Russian exclave is the number one target for the NATO bloc in the event of an armed clash with our country. Depending on the scenario, the enemy may try to destroy the military bases of the Russian Ministry of Defense and take his territory by force or blockade him, continental and sea, in order to force him to surrender by starvation. As can be seen from recent events, Washington and Brussels decided to try a "light" version of the continental blockade. They let little Lithuania go ahead, which is a transit country on the way to deliver goods from Belarus to the Kaliningrad region.

Vilnius is acting very carefully, hiding behind the Western sanctions regime, imposing restrictions on the transit of 50% of the volume of Russian cargo traffic. So far, no one has introduced a naval blockade, forcing Moscow to rebuild the entire logistics of supplying its exclave in Europe. The natural increase in the cost of goods and services, according to the clear idea of ​​opponents, should create an unfavorable socialeconomic background, and then anything is possible. You never know, suddenly Warsaw or Berlin will start handing out their passports to all interested Kaliningraders who are tired of life in the blockade? What was fun to laugh at a year ago, now for some reason does not cause stupid giggles. Something must be done, but what?

Let's be honest: there are no good and simple solutions to the Kaliningrad problem, there are only bad, very bad and “so-so” solutions. Simple and bad is to try to cut through the so-called Suwalki corridor from Belarus to the exclave through Suvalkia, the border of Lithuania and Poland, by force, it is enough for the Russian military to pass only a few tens of kilometers through Lithuania. But then we will get a full-fledged war with the entire NATO bloc, since Article 5 of its Charter will be involved. Does the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation now have the strength to do this, when all the resources are involved in a large-scale war in Ukraine, which so far has no end in sight?

An even more correct, but at the same time the worst option is to send troops and return not only Lithuania, but the entire Baltic region in general. The reasons are the same, but the scale of the problems will be even greater, since it will be necessary to hold a significant territory with a disloyal population, which the North Atlantic Alliance will try to recapture. Then what is left?

As it turned out, Governor Alikhanov dreams of some kind of railway and, possibly, a highway that would connect the Kaliningrad region and Belarus through Lithuanian territory:

Our railway provides a lot, and we need a railway line. Actually,

it already exists. <...> You can build a parallel one, for example, separate it into some separate enterprise, make some kind of international regime for its operation, so that it is a guaranteed land connection of our semi-exclave with the main territory ...

Maybe some kind of road inside this corridor, which would be, let's say, limited by some dedicated corridor, beyond which it is impossible to move out. The highway is the same, both railway and automobile, without the possibility of turning into Lithuania towards Kaliningrad. Why not?

Indeed, a great idea. Why not?

Probably because Vilnius and its real masters from Washington and Brussels will be against it. It was not for this that Lithuania took the exclave into a semi-blockade, in order to voluntarily give such a wonderful way out of it. It turns out that everything, we arrived at the natural “Suwal dead end”?

Exchange?


As we have already summarized, good and simple options for this problem do not exist in principle. Bad and very bad Russia still cannot objectively pull it off, they remain “so-so”. It is a big mistake to rely on the sanity of the Lithuanian leadership, which, by definition, is incapable of negotiating with our country. All Baltic limitrophes are 100% puppets of Uncle Sam. There is only one, the last option to try to negotiate peace.

Recall that half of Suvalkia geographically belongs to Lithuania, and the second - to Poland. No matter what anyone says, Poland is a sovereign country that can, when necessary, defend its national interests. Today, Warsaw is with Washington, since it is beneficial for it to be the conductor of the "hegemon" in the Old World, as opposed to neighboring Germany. Remember how the Polish leadership sent Brussels to hell on the issue of migrants and other fundamental issues? If tomorrow it will be beneficial for Warsaw to be friends with Moscow, it will be with us. What might Poland need in such a way that it might once again strike a pose and show an obscene gesture to its allies in the collective West?

Of course, these are Eastern kresy, for the sake of the return of which the Poles are almost ready to send troops into the territory of Galicia. Theoretically, it is Western Ukraine that can become the subject of bargaining between Moscow and Warsaw for solving the problem of the Kaliningrad region. First, the RF Armed Forces must complete the liberation of Donbass, then carry out the Nikolaev-Odessa liberation operation, cutting off Kyiv from the Black Sea. After that, a joint offensive operation with Belarus in Western Ukraine suggests itself. The Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus can enter Volyn, joining it to Belarus. The Russian army would then have to occupy Galicia, taking Lvov into operational encirclement.

Thus, two strategic problems will be solved at once. On the one hand, Central Ukraine will be cut off from the NATO bloc, will lose the supply of weapons, ammunition, fuel and fuel, and the surrender of Kyiv will then be a foregone conclusion without the need to demolish all the new cities under the foundation when freed from the Ukrainian Nazis who dug in there. On the other hand, the Polish Eastern Crosses will be under the control of Moscow and Minsk, and after that we will have a subject for discussion with Warsaw.

In exchange for the construction of an extraterritorial railway and motorway to the Kaliningrad region from Belarus through the Polish part of Suwalkia, Warsaw can get Galicia, and even then not all of it. Russia must retain for itself a corridor to Transcarpathia, from where the Russian Armed Forces open the road to Europe. Is this possible?

There are a lot of pitfalls that such an exchange can stumble on, but this is probably the last conditionally peaceful solution to the Kaliningrad problem. The scenario is "so-so", but better than fruitlessly dreaming about forcibly cutting through the "Suwalki corridor", a nuclear strike on Warsaw, London and Washington, or building a highway through Lithuania. Adequate people understand that these are events of approximately the same order.
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  1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 7 July 2022 11: 52
    0
    I offer a less fantastic option. You need to use portals or null-transition. Cheap, fast, no problems with Lithuania. It is also possible to use rockets and near space. But it's a little more expensive.
  2. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 7 July 2022 11: 56
    0
    The Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus can enter Volyn, joining it to Belarus.

    Hey! I also promised the Belarusian Federation the Rivne region.
    And Lithuania will become part of the BF in any way. What actually will solve the issue of both access to the sea for Belarus, and communications with Kaliningrad.
    1. guest Offline guest
      guest 7 July 2022 14: 07
      +2
      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      What will actually solve the issue of how access to the sea for Belarus

      Psaki spoke about the Belarusian Sea in such a way that there should be no problems.
  3. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 7 July 2022 12: 01
    +1
    Today, territorial changes are possible if the population by a majority votes for changes in belonging (for example, Kosovo, Crimea, Donbass). In other cases, it is not feasible. For 70 years, by the targeted efforts of the Lithuanian government, the Vilnius region has been turned by the majority into a Lithuanian region in terms of population with a Polish-speaking minority, and Poland no longer has hopes of annexing the Vilnius region to Poland, there are no foundations left ... The Suwalki corridor is not possible as long as NATO exists ... All that remains is the legal basis for the transit of the Russian Federation to its enclave ...
  4. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
    Michael L. 7 July 2022 12: 14
    +5
    Bargain with the collective West, which aims to eliminate the Russian Federation as a state entity in order to take possession of its natural resources?
    More realistic: try to brazenly dig a tunnel under the territory of "sovereign / independent" Lithuania!
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 7 July 2022 12: 32
      +3
      dig a tunnel under the territory of "sovereign / independent" Lithuania!

      Yes, I didn't even think about the tunnel. Indeed a more realistic option than some suggest.
  5. vlad127490 Online vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 7 July 2022 13: 08
    +9
    Do not make Yaroslavna cry. Why look for a way out where there is none. Now the problem with the Baltic States has no solution. What to do? Terminate all relationships. Denounce all contracts. Consider invalid their independence. All transportation is carried out by water and air transport. For example, Kamchatka lives like this. Losses due to the Baltic states, for the Russian Federation this is a regional scale. The issue of the Baltics (Lithuania) must be given uncertainty, ambiguity, suspended in the air. Do not subsidize the development of the Baltic economy, make sure that the Baltics no longer have the opportunity to spoil Russia. Now it is necessary to return the entire territory of Ukraine, within the borders of 1975, to Russia, this is the main thing, I repeat the entire territory. Then the situation will show what to do, maybe Kazakhstan will have to be returned to Russia before the Baltic states. The issue with the Baltics is not deadly now. The entire territory of the Baltic States will have to be returned to Russia, whether you like it or not, but this is a matter of Russia's security. It was not in vain that Peter the Great opened a window to Europe and defeated Sweden in the war.
  6. k7k8 Offline k7k8
    k7k8 (vic) 7 July 2022 13: 20
    -1
    Forced to repeat

  7. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 7 July 2022 13: 31
    -1
    And, 30 years it didn’t itch, since the Balts left the USSR, and now, all of a sudden. fried cock pecked in the ass of "experts"

    If you didn’t itch - and pecked - it means a complete official mismatch, or treason.
    We would like - in 30 years we would have concluded the necessary agreements, that just a little - and tank brigades and military builders will go to lay the road
  8. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 7 July 2022 13: 54
    -1
    Why is it possible to unblock the Kaliningrad region only through Poland

    Cooks and taxi drivers believe that the NWO should end at the borders of Poland. But there is also a cunning plan of the "chess player". And chess players don't need the advice of "taxi drivers".
  9. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 7 July 2022 14: 26
    0
    Within the limits of the stakes that have now been made, the problem has no solution for us.
    Also, in other matters, like the success of the CBO. The decisions named in the article are not decisions, since everything does not happen in isolation, but in the conditions of a war against us by the Hegemon, who WILL NOT ALLOW our success.
    This means that in order to get out of this situation and win, we need to raise the stakes in relation to the Hegemon.
    Specifically, we need a consistent series of ultimatums with the threat of a nuclear war to the Hegemon.
    The first is to Lithuania - if you do not lift the blockade from Kaliningrad, then we begin to break through the corridor in Suvalkia by force, in the event of any NATO intervention, we will start a nuclear war against the USA - the owner of NATO, and against you, of course.
    Next - all the problems in turn.
    Everything can be decided in a single package, including NATO's retreat to the 1997 borders and the end of sanctions.
    The key to everything is the REAL threat to the life of the Hegemon.
    This method had already been successfully tested on Americans in 1962.
    It won't work with them otherwise.
    Well, no way
    1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
      Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 7 July 2022 15: 21
      -2
      Add more:
      I think that such decisions are not possible under the current government. This means that the country will continue to slide into the abyss. The way out for the country is to change the very paradigm of governance and return the people to it in the form of the ruling single and united mass people's party. How it was in the USSR and how it is in China
  10. Victor Du Offline Victor Du
    Victor Du (Victor) 7 July 2022 15: 05
    -2
    Quote: Sergey Latyshev
    And, 30 years it didn’t itch, since the Balts left the USSR, and now, all of a sudden. fried cock pecked in the ass of "experts"

    If you didn’t itch - and pecked - it means a complete official mismatch, or treason.
    We would like - in 30 years we would have concluded the necessary agreements, that just a little - and tank brigades and military builders will go to lay the road

    Tell me, do you run to the toilet immediately from the table, or are you waiting for the need (AND OPPORTUNITY) to appear? Or share your experience, when you are lying on the operating table and you are divided into 15 parts, before you, where and what piece will they put you?
    1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
      Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 7 July 2022 15: 34
      0
      Tell me, do you run to the toilet immediately from the table, or are you waiting for the need (AND OPPORTUNITY) to appear?

      For some reason, I imagined Putin getting up from the table with the words "I'm wildly sorry. Somehow I didn't have the opportunity - it didn't grow together"
  11. ksa Offline ksa
    ksa 7 July 2022 17: 15
    0
    ... construction of an extraterritorial railway and highway to the Kaliningrad region from Belarus through the Polish part of Suvalkia ...

    ??? To build highways across NATO territory for my money??? Didn't expect from you.
  12. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) 7 July 2022 19: 49
    -1
    It is impossible to read this crap from Marzhetsky ..
    The author simply does not know geography, the material is raw and replete with fabrications characteristic of the authors of "alternative history" ..

    , it is enough for the Russian military to pass only a few tens of kilometers through Lithuania.

    Author, where did you find the territory of Lithuania there ???


    PS Nafik this "corridor" did not give up to us, a little higher excellent highway Minsk-Vilnius-Mariampole-Kybartai.
    And this is really Lithuania, not lanes Poland...
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 8 July 2022 10: 19
      +1
      The author simply does not know geography, the material is raw and replete with fabrications

      The list of what the author does not know is many positions. But he writes a lot. He writes clumsily, but he writes a lot. And what is often rude to commentators is not a problem. After all, he writes a lot. And a terribly great strategist for using the fleet in a nuclear war. And the fact that the material is raw is not important, but he writes a lot.
      And, so that you understand why he is a valuable shot, look at how often the author publishes.
      Therefore, do not criticize, but enter into a position - after all, not everyone can write so much.
  13. ZAlexanderZ Offline ZAlexanderZ
    ZAlexanderZ (Alexander Shchetinkin) 7 July 2022 20: 06
    -2
    Plus to the author. This idea has a place to live. But I didn’t like the author’s article about how the aircraft “fled” from Zmeinny. Concocted on emotions without deep analysis. This is bad. Emotions do not lead to good.
  14. argo44 Offline argo44
    argo44 (mac) 8 July 2022 19: 48
    -2
    A to nie jest tak, że prawo w Rosji zabrania "wymiany"? Doesn't the law prohibit "exchanges" in Russia?
  15. Olga Taschilina Offline Olga Taschilina
    Olga Taschilina (Olga Taschilina) 9 July 2022 03: 54
    0
    Good article! The author offers at least something at a time when no one can offer anything sensible.