Why the division of Ukraine can be beneficial for Russia


Tomorrow, March 24, exactly one month after the start of a special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, an extraordinary summit of NATO member countries will be held. Apparently, decisions can be made there that will entail the actual and, possibly, the legal division of the former Square. What risks does this bring for our country, and is it really worth being afraid of such an outcome?


Polish Deputy Prime Minister Yaroslav Kaczynski was the first to speak about the possibility of bringing "peacekeepers" into Ukraine on March 16:

I believe that a NATO peacekeeping mission is needed, perhaps some kind of wider international system, but a mission that can also defend itself and that will operate in Ukraine.

Note that it was specifically about NATO peacekeepers, and not about any "blue helmets" under the auspices of the UN. Since in parallel with this, an accumulation of troops and armored vehicles was noted on the Ukrainian border from Romania, and the Transcarpathian ethnic Hungarians turned to President Viktor Orban with a request to protect them and began preparations for a national referendum, we did assumptionthat Eastern Europe for the first time truly matured to actually return to the borders of 1939.

Everything is so transparent and obvious that they do not see, or rather, they are afraid to speak about it aloud only in Kyiv. On the other hand, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated in plain text that the entry of NATO troops into Western Ukraine in order to “create headquarters in Lviv” and stay there is unacceptable and could lead to a clash with the Russian Armed Forces:

Our Polish colleagues have already stated that there will be a NATO summit now, and peacekeepers should be sent. I hope they understand what they are talking about. This will be the very direct clash between the Russian and NATO armed forces, which everyone not only wanted to avoid, but said that it should never take place in principle.

In the same vein, Russian State Duma deputy from United Russia Vladimir Shamanov, who previously headed the Airborne Forces, spoke out, warning that “NATO peacekeepers” would be met with Caliber, aviation and artillery strikes. In this context, it takes on a new meaning information about the fact that a large grouping of Belarusian troops is concentrated near Brest, on the armored vehicles of which special decals in the form of red squares are applied. Probably, their goal will be either to quickly stop the entry of foreign troops into Galicia and Volyn, or to stop them at a certain line, beyond which they will not be able to go.

This is exactly what I would like to talk about in more detail. First of all, one must understand that the strikes that the Russian Armed Forces can inflict on foreign troops that crossed the border of Western Ukraine will not automatically lead to the outbreak of war with the North Atlantic Alliance. The NATO bloc is formally “defensive” in its structure, and Article 5 of its Charter comes into force in the event of a strike on the territory of one of its members. Ukraine is not such, therefore, instead of a war with the entire North Atlantic Alliance, Russia may get an armed conflict with several of its members separately. There is nothing good in this, which was warned by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov. But should everything necessarily follow the path of escalation?

On the one hand, if NATO's plans are to bring "peacekeepers" into Western Ukraine without joining parts of it, respectively, to Poland, Romania and Hungary, then such scenario highly undesirable for Russia. In fact, another terrorist enclave will appear in Eastern Europe, a sort of Idlib-2, guarded and supplied with weapons by the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance. Galicia and Volhynia will turn into a source of constant terrorist and military threat for the former Ukraine, which remained under the control of the RF Armed Forces, as well as for neighboring Belarus. In general, a quiet life is not expected.

On the other hand, if the introduction of NATO "peacekeepers" entails an analogue of the "Crimean scenario", then such an outcome may have more pluses than minuses for almost all parties. Let's explain this idea in more detail.

At first, the introduction of foreign troops into Western Ukraine, whatever one may say, will be a stab in the back for the Kiev regime and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. European neighbors will show that they are protecting their national interests, but not Ukrainian ones.

Secondly, the appearance in Transcarpathia and Bukovina, in Galicia and Volhynia of Hungarian, Romanian and Polish troops will give Moscow the right to legalize its military presence in Ukraine. In fact, the NATO bloc will move even further to the East than it was at the time of the announcement of "Putin's ultimatum". In response, the Kremlin will be able to build a new border of the Union State already along the limits occupied by "NATO peacekeepers", turning the former Square into its new Military District.

Thirdly, the reunification of Western Ukraine with Hungary, Poland and Romania according to the "Crimean scenario" will be of great geopolitical importance. In this case, the “invader” will be not only our country, where she was enrolled in 2014. This will also allow to solve the problem with the denazification of the former Square. We still do not really explain how exactly this denazification should take place. Bringing all criminals to justice, banning the activities of nationalist organizations - all this, of course, is good. But how to reformat the minds of people whose brains were filled with Russophobia for 31 “independence” and 8 post-Maidan years?

How, for example, to denazify and set up, if not pro-Russian, then at least neutrally, the consciousness of the inhabitants of Western Ukraine? Even the mighty USSR with its most powerful the economy, the administrative apparatus and the state ideology could not cope with the Westerners. They, at the first opportunity, voted for secession from the Soviet Union, they were the first to use Nazi symbols and call for Russians to be put on knives. Sorry, of course, but the modern Russian Federation, which does not even have an ideology, such a task is simply not up to the task. And what to do? Leave military contingents in Galicia and Volhynia, who will periodically be shot in the back? This will be a source of constant problems for the RF Ministry of Defense and the coffins of Russian servicemen. Without end and end.

In this context, the reunification of Galicia and Volhynia with Poland is the most rational solution. There is no need to regret this “Kemsky volost”, it is not ours mentally and will never be like that again. If this territory, following the results of the referendum, officially becomes part of the Republic of Poland, then Warsaw, and not Moscow, will take responsibility for restoring and maintaining order there, restoring and subsequent maintenance. Let the Poles decide for themselves how to assimilate the Westerners, and deal with issues of restitution. The same can be said about Transcarpathia and Bukovina. After Crimea, there is some historical justice in the fact that the Eastern European neighbors will take away their ancestral territories, whatever one may say, there is still.

The reunification of Western Ukraine with Europe, among other things, will enable ordinary Ukrainians to make their choice between it and Russia. If you read their comments, many of them sincerely want to join the EU. The trouble is that the EU does not need Ukraine as a full-fledged member, the maximum is an eternal European association. If things go according to the “Crimean scenario”, then pro-European-minded Ukrainians who hate Russia so much that they can’t eat, will register for money somewhere in Transcarpathia, Bukovina or Galicia, and eventually receive their European passport. Those who are ready to continue to live and cooperate with Russia will remain. The choice is personal and purely voluntary.

Perhaps, for the former Square, after the completion of the special military operation, such an outcome will be the most favorable scenario. That's right, thinking out loud.
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  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 23 March 2022 15: 09
    +4
    This is the option that is undesirable for Russia. Russia needed a united Ukraine under a Russian protectorate. If the West of Ukraine becomes part of the NATO states, then this means the ACTUAL expansion of NATO to the East. Which is categorically unacceptable in Putin's well-known ultimatum. Any partition of Ukraine (along any borders) is a geopolitical defeat for Russia.

    What is the best move for the West? Zelensky himself does not decide anything. So it doesn’t even make sense to consider Kyiv’s Wishlist. The end of the war, the signing of some agreements with Russia, the withdrawal of the surviving troops to the West of the country, without heavy weapons and the signing of an agreement with Russia. After that, at the request of the legal government of Ukraine (Moscow still recognizes Zelensky as the legitimate president of Ukraine), the troops of Poland, Hungary and Romania enter the territory of Western Ukraine (is it not necessary to give a reference to Syria?). Since the war is officially stopped, Russia will not be able to attack these troops either. And the West of Ukraine, in fact, goes under the wing of NATO. And the surviving troops (with combat experience) will be re-equipped by the West before the end of the year.

    What is Russia's best course of action? It is already becoming unprofitable to continue the war. When signing a peace treaty (agreement, capitulation, no matter what it is called), the mandatory entry of Russian troops into the rest of the territory of Ukraine to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe. Mandatory capture of Kyiv and Odessa. Kyiv is the capital, Odessa and Nikolaev cut off the rest of Ukraine from the Black Sea. And any NATO ships in the Black Sea become redundant.

    After that, the creation of people's republics and the creation of a federation of the South-East of Ukraine. Mandatory restoration of the destroyed and humanitarian support for the population at least in the next year or two. All this will fall on the Russian budget. But the continuation of the war is clearly becoming burdensome. And dangerous.
    The goals of the war are achieved by 50%.

    The main thing for Russia is not even this. The war exposed the essence of the Russian "elite". The most pressing issue will not be foreign relations, but the reformatting of the internal Russian "elite". This is even more important than the reformatting of Ukraine.
    1. Valentine Offline Valentine
      Valentine (Valentin) 23 March 2022 17: 29
      0
      Quote: Bakht
      The war exposed the essence of the Russian "elite"

      Today, the news reported that the main swindler and rogue Chubais left Russia with his family, and our so-called "elite", from whom abroad confiscated everything stolen from the USSR and Russia, is now no longer an elite, but so, homeless people .... .And, in my opinion, Sergey is right in his "layouts" - we don't need this Galicia with all its eight million inhabitants, and we don't need the SS division "Galicia-2", which is now rampant on the lands of the former Ukraine, let the Poles take it within the borders of 1939, and even in their "eastern crosses" they will quickly restore order with a whip and restitution, and quickly put an end to banderization in their former-future land. And in Russia, other times are coming, the overwhelming number of previously privatized industrial enterprises are being governmentalized, a new ideology for the development of the country is being prepared, both in politics and in the economy - we have not experienced this, we will survive this. Soon Europe will come to its senses without our gas, oil and the rarest polymetals, timber, etc., and everything will settle down, contrary to the "wishlist" of the Washington "watcher", so we need time and patience again, but it's also possible to call Chubais from abroad, and send him with Khodorkovsky with a petition to Uncle Joe across the ocean, they say, forgive us holy fools, we understand everything and are waiting for your instructions, and all sanctions will be removed from us immediately, and our money and real estate overseas will be returned to our oligarchs, and we, ordinary people will be sent to explore the tundra for disobedience to the hegemon of all the earth, where we will soon lie down in permafrost, as the North American Indians lay down in their original pampas.
    2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 March 2022 06: 34
      0
      The end of the war, the signing of some agreements with Russia, the withdrawal of the surviving troops to the West of the country, without heavy weapons and the signing of an agreement with Russia. After that, at the request of the legal government of Ukraine (Moscow still recognizes Zelensky as the legitimate president of Ukraine), the troops of Poland, Hungary and Romania enter the territory of Western Ukraine (is it not necessary to give a reference to Syria?). Since the war is officially stopped, Russia will not be able to attack these troops either.

      There is no war, actually.
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 24 March 2022 07: 40
        +4
        Where is the war?
        In Syria, or in Libya...? Several thousand dead is certainly not a war.
        I agree that there is no official declaration of war. But she is in fact. In Ukraine, too, for 8 years they have been saying that there is no civil war and there is no war in the Donbass. There is ATO.
        Is it really all about terminology?
        1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
          Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 March 2022 07: 41
          -1
          Is it really all about terminology?

          As you can see, terminology is important for the leadership of our country.
  2. faiver Offline faiver
    faiver (Andrei) 23 March 2022 15: 26
    +2
    I would recommend that the Russians and Belarusians (whether they support the special operation or not), who are on the territory of Poland, leave its territory as soon as possible ....
  3. Art Pilot Offline Art Pilot
    Art Pilot (pilot) 23 March 2022 15: 27
    +2
    The US will not allow Poland, Romania and Hungary to join their former units. The states will support the Bandera underground to destabilize life both on the territory of the former Ukraine and on the territory of Russia proper. Therefore, there are no other options, as soon as the carrot and stick method can not be invented. It is cruel to punish the Banderaites who show up and encourage the law-abiding.
    PS: in the diagram, Volyn is part of Russia, and according to the text, the author gives it to Poland. (?)
  4. weddu Offline weddu
    weddu (Kolya) 23 March 2022 15: 53
    +1
    Russia will not object if the Hungarians of Transcarpathia decide to join Hungary. This is where it all ends. Lviv and the region are predominantly populated by Ukrainians, there are both Russians and Poles. Russia will not allow Poland to tear off this fat piece from Ukraine. No one will stand on ceremony with the Polish military as with Ukrainian soldiers, they will simply be destroyed as those mercenaries... Northern Bukovina will also remain Ukrainian.
  5. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 23 March 2022 15: 54
    +1
    Quote: ArtPilot
    PS: in the diagram, Volyn is part of Russia, and according to the text, the author gives it to Poland. (?)

    You can give away what is yours. Image from the editor.
    1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex 23 March 2022 21: 44
      0
      No one here has considered another option:
      1. Demilitarization of ALL Ukraine - to the very western border. (Not a single Western country crosses the borders under fear of being hit by those who crossed the state border of the former Ukraine)
      2. And here our Ministry of Foreign Affairs offers applicants on the territory of the former. "y" CONDITION under which they EXPLOIT and NATO. and the Yankees from their territories (removing all infrastructure as well). And the Russian Federation allocates to them (as an encouragement), but after the referendum (!), Part of the territory that they claimed (these are Psheks, Hungarians, Slovaks ... called everyone?) .........
      3. Romanians GENERALLY cut everything, with a warning - get ready, you are NEXT!!!
      1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
        Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 March 2022 06: 35
        +1
        2. And here our Ministry of Foreign Affairs offers applicants on the territory of the former. "y" CONDITION under which they EXPLOIT and NATO. and the Yankees from their territories (removing all infrastructure as well). And the Russian Federation allocates to them (as an encouragement), but after the referendum (!), Part of the territory that they claimed (these are Psheks, Hungarians, Slovaks ... called everyone?) .........

        They did not consider it, because all this is nonsense.
        1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
          A.Lex 24 March 2022 10: 00
          0
          Why nonsense? Can you explain?
          1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
            Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 March 2022 11: 10
            0
            Because what you propose is unrealistic.
            1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
              A.Lex 24 March 2022 12: 45
              0
              Those. you respond according to the program laid down in you:

              This cannot be, because it can never be!

              Good answer! This means that all your arguments are ... but you have no arguments! With what I congratulate you! wassat
  6. Kade_t Offline Kade_t
    Kade_t (Igor) 23 March 2022 16: 50
    +1
    The entry of Polish troops into Ukraine is very bad news, now you can be afraid, because a direct military clash with our army will be inevitable. The result may be unpredictable.
    1. kot711 Offline kot711
      kot711 (vov) 23 March 2022 19: 36
      +1
      The entry of Polish troops into Ukraine is very bad news, now you can be afraid, because a direct military clash with our army will be inevitable,
      Don't panic ahead of time. Polish dogs, not a meter. NATO understands that this could turn into a global war. So they'll have to shorten the leash, these pans.
  7. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 23 March 2022 16: 51
    +3
    That is exactly what should be done. And the rest of Ukraine is divided into 2 parts. Novorossiya into Russia. Friendly Little Russia in the Union with the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus.
  8. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) 23 March 2022 20: 53
    +1
    How much you can be idiotic ... Zelensky has been asking NATO for help for 8 years. They responded - they sent peacekeepers to the west. Poland alone as a victim ... Everything is fine except that our masters destroyed and plundered the USSR not for that, in order to suffer ... They will not start anything
  9. ivan2022 Offline ivan2022
    ivan2022 (ivan2022) 24 March 2022 06: 47
    +1
    Quote: Marzhetsky
    Quote: ArtPilot
    PS: in the diagram, Volyn is part of Russia, and according to the text, the author gives it to Poland. (?)

    You can give away what is yours. Image from the editor.

    You own what you can take. Such are the real relations of states, if not to be hypocritical.

    In fact, we returned after and as a result of the collapse of the USSR, first to the period of the Brest Peace. With the actual occupation of Ukraine with the appearance there of a "like Russian" army, created with the money of the West.

    And now we are talking about a new "Entente summit", which will decide on. the feasibility of the intervention. 1918 is back. This is a stupid and dangerous business - to break up your own country into "independent republics" in peacetime.

    Warm greetings from the next world to all "dear Russians" from their beloved favorite - Boris Nikolaevich ....
  10. andrey ivanov_2 Offline andrey ivanov_2
    andrey ivanov_2 (Andrey Ivanov) 24 March 2022 08: 00
    +3
    Even the mighty USSR with its most powerful economy, administrative apparatus and state ideology could not cope with the Westerners.

    I could not and did not want to - these are two big differences.
  11. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 March 2022 08: 17
    -2
    Quote: andrey ivanov_2
    "Even the mighty USSR, with its most powerful economy, administrative apparatus and state ideology, could not cope with the Westerners."
    I could not and did not want to - these are two big differences.

    These are all empty speculations. The modern Russian Federation will not be able to do anything with the Westerners. This is a reality with which we will have to continue to exist.
    The power in the Kremlin will change, there will be a new Khrushchev, who will again amnesty the neo-Banderists and everything will go in a second circle. Why jump on the old rake?
  12. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
    Pat Rick 24 March 2022 08: 56
    0
    It seems to me that the most likely division (if it really happens) of Ukraine along the Dnieper line:
    Russia - the left bank of the Dnieper + Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa regions.
    Ukraine - the right bank of the Dnieper minus the named areas.

    The map is absolutely fantastic.
    Transnistria is not marked there in any way. Judging by the green color on the map, it will connect with Moldova and the Chernivtsi region of Ukraine. On what basis? There has never been such a state education in history.
    In N years, this "green" will join Romania, which has never happened either.

    Given the huge political changes that have taken place over the past 30-35 years, redrawing existing borders is a very costly and not always reasonable business.
  13. Chel from Chel Offline Chel from Chel
    Chel from Chel (Person) 24 March 2022 11: 11
    -1
    Cool article! This is true!
  14. Pacer Offline Pacer
    Pacer (Pacer) 24 March 2022 11: 23
    +1
    reunification of Western Ukraine with Hungary, Poland and Romania

    Do we trade with the Motherland? And without having any right to do so! repeat

    Carpathian Rusyns do not want such a division! stop
    And so it won't! negative
    https://aftershock.news/?q=node/1071791&full

    Appeal to the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin from the Rusinov

    Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich.

    I am writing to you on behalf of the leader (since 2014) of Rusynism.

    Rusyns, like no one else, suffered from genocide, starting from the mass Austro-Hungarian 1914-1918. more than 120 thousand Rusyns were tortured to death in the Terezin and Talerhof concentration camps.

    Rusyns were subjected to no less persecution for the Orthodox faith. Why only one Sziget Maramorosh trial of 1914, marked by the persecution of the Rusins ​​for their Orthodox faith.

    In 1946, all Rusyns were turned into Ukrainians overnight. All schools with Rusyn as the language of instruction were transferred to Ukrainian as the language of instruction.

    In 2008, Ukraine held a mass anti-Rusyn trial in criminal case N499 for the legitimate demand of the Rusyns to implement the results of the Transcarpathian regional referendum of December 1, 1991, in which 78% of Transcarpathians voted for "a self-governing territory that is not part of any other territorial entities."

    The fact that in Ukraine began on the Maidan in the 13th for the Rusyns began in August 2008. Rusyns drank the cup of a large-scale, centuries-old genocide and persecution for their faith, for their language, for their self-identification, for their will in a referendum.

    In 1996, Ukraine adopted the State Plan for resolving the issue of Ukrainian Rusyns, and in fact, on 10 points, the State Plan for the destruction of Rusyns.

    But the Rusyns are alive and stand firmly on their land, endowed with Rights and Titles, according to the Saint-Germain Treaty of 1919. The territory of the Rusyns south of the Carpathians is recognized by 57 states of the world, including all the countries of the Great Entente.

    The situation around Ukraine is close to a denouement. The further fate of the Russian Federation itself will largely depend on how it is resolved.

    The Rusyns officially supported the position of the Russian leadership on Ukraine.

    In the context of forcing Ukraine to peace and the federalization of the lands, we propose to transform western Ukraine into Carpathian Rus on the Rights, Mandates, Titles of Rusyns.

    If Western Ukraine remains in the form in which it is now, then in question:

    - national security strategy of the Russian Federation;
    - Russophobia;
    - elimination of the source of international terrorism;
    - debanderization, denazification;
    - an outpost in the west of Russia, which it has been for more than 1200 years.

    We hope that the solution of these issues through the Carpathian Rust will organically fit into the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation.

    Chairman of the MC "Matitsa Rusinov"

    P. I. Getsko
  15. Yatva Offline Yatva
    Yatva (I) 24 March 2022 12: 12
    0
    We will not give up an inch of Russian land!!! Western Ukraine is historical Russia - Chervonnaya-Galician !!!
  16. Valera75 Offline Valera75
    Valera75 (Valery) 24 March 2022 14: 51
    +1
    Whatever the article, it is necessary to give to someone the lands annexed by Russia to Ukraine. Why should Russia give something to someone?
  17. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 24 March 2022 15: 03
    +1
    If the West of Ukraine becomes part of the NATO states, then this means the ACTUAL expansion of NATO to the East. So what .. In contrast to this, there will be an even more significant EXPANSION of Russia to the West. and SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE SOURCE OF BANDEROVSK INFECTION WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE TERRITORY OF UKRAINE. How much stronger will Russia be, both territorially and in human resources. Then it will be possible to say we wanted an independent Ukraine, but Poland was the first to tear off a piece of Ukraine. We only answered.
  18. Lyudmila Ol Offline Lyudmila Ol
    Lyudmila Ol (Lyudmila Olkhovskaya) 25 March 2022 10: 21
    +1
    With what kind of hangover does the Polish jackal make such a gift !? No way!!! Establish a Russian protectorate, police, ruble and power throughout the territory. Rename this disgrace Ukraine to Novorossia (for example), return schools and institutes to teach Russian using Russian textbooks. to plant and hang all the Nazis. So that they remember their shame for centuries!
  19. Old Skeptic Offline Old Skeptic
    Old Skeptic (Old Skeptic) 25 March 2022 11: 54
    +1
    Does Pan Marzetski take care of his relatives?
    Oriental cresses, (or how it is spelled) do not give rest? We have thousands of Susanins for every Lyakh trick.

    Pan Marzhecki. Pan Marzhecki. sad
    And I thought you were a decent person.
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