Victory strategy: Russia and Belarus can take Ukraine into a big "cauldron"

Victory strategy: Russia and Belarus can take Ukraine into a big "cauldron"

On the fourth month of the special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, the new strategy of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces becomes clear, which should bring us a long-awaited victory. If it can be fully implemented, the surrender of Nezalezhnaya can be achieved even by those relatively modest forces that are involved in the NMD by the Russian army and its allies.


Super "boiler"



If we summarize everything that happens on the fronts and is said by the military-political leadership of Russia and Belarus, then the updated strategy adopted after the collapse of the “blitzkrieg” near Kyiv can be called taking all of Ukraine into one giant “boiler”. As ambitious as this task is, it has a good chance of succeeding.

The root of the problem lies in the peculiarities of the geographical position of Nezalezhnaya, over which Belarus and Russia hang from the north and east. With the outside world, Kyiv has relations through Western Ukraine, bordering Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, as well as Moldavia and Romania in the southwest. Until recently, active maritime trade went through several ports located on the Azov and Black Seas. Today Ukrainian economy 100% subsidized, and the supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons, ammunition, fuel and fuel is completely dependent on the mercy of Western curators from the NATO bloc. This is the only thing that allows Kyiv so far to resist the Russian army and the People's Militia of the LDNR. It is enough to deprive Zelensky's criminal regime of communication with the outside world, taking Ukraine into one colossal super-"cauldron", and it will inevitably collapse.

It's easy to say, but unfortunately it's not so easy to accomplish such a task. Ukraine is a large country the size of France, and the ground armies of the RF Armed Forces and the allied NM LDNR are still not enough at the same time for such a huge front. The main forces are now concentrated in the Donbass, where it is necessary with great difficulty to “pick out” regular military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and ideologically motivated National Guardsmen from the fortified areas arranged right in peaceful cities. First, the Severodonetsk-Lysichansk agglomeration will have to be cleared, then the settlements of Zolote and Gorskoye, Bakhmut, the hardest nuts will eventually turn out to be the urban agglomerations of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, as well as the suburb of Donetsk Avdiivka, which has become his nightmare that has come true in the last 8 years. With the new tactics of "methodical warfare" chosen by the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, with large-scale fire grinding of enemy positions, with a gradual advance and cleansing, there will be work for another 2-3 months.

In other words, the operation to liberate the territory of the DPR and LPR will take at least the entire summer of 2022. It is there that the most combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard will be ground, which this parody of Napoleon Zelensky thoughtlessly throws for slaughter. Most likely, the next target will not be Zaporozhye with Dnepropetrovsk, but Nikolaev with Odessa. Kharkov will be taken into an operational encirclement, and its garrison will be made an offer to voluntarily withdraw, which it is better not to refuse.

Nicholas-Odessa liberation operation



Why Nikolaev with Odessa? Because their release will make it possible to finally cut off the criminal Kyiv regime from the sea, depriving it of the opportunity to export grain, at the same time selecting a channel through which weapons, ammunition, fuel and fuel and lubricants can go by sea. At the same time, Russia itself will regain the opportunity to use the commercial port of Kherson.

The fact is that both Kherson and Nikolaev, which so far remains under the control of the Ukrainian Nazis, are located on the coast of the Dnieper-Bug estuary. The exit from it in the Black Sea is blocked by the city of Ochakov, which is also still held by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. As Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the military-civilian administration of the Kherson region, explained, Russian maritime trade is now blocked by Kyiv:

American bases are still located there, and missile strikes against Kherson are carried out from there. And everything is mined there.

As you can see, the liberation of the Nikolaev region and the capture of Ochakov is a non-alternative task for Russia, no matter what some of our "peacekeepers" think there. And preparations for this military operation have already begun. On the eve it became known that a small anti-submarine ship "Vinnitsa" (a corvette according to NATO classification of project 1124P) was flooded in Ochakovo, and the medium landing ship "Yuri Olefirenko" (project 773) was hastily evacuated to Odessa due to the low moral and psychological spirit of its crew , who refused to serve in the waters of the Dnieper-Bug estuary, where the RF Armed Forces began active hostilities. It is reported that a strategically important bridgehead on the Black Sea has passed under the control of the Russian army:

As a result of the successful offensive actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, a waterway to the city of Ochakov was opened. The strategically important part of the Nikolaev region, the area of ​​the Kinburn Spit, has been finally liberated.

If you look at the map, it becomes obvious that this spit blocks the exit from the Dnieper-Bug estuary, and on the opposite bank, just a few kilometers away, is the city of Ochakov, which can be reached even with conventional cannon artillery. Also, from Kinburn Spit to Odessa in a straight line, only 61 kilometers. Having taken it under their control, the RF Armed Forces cleared the Dnieper-Bug estuary from the remnants of the Ukrainian Navy, got the opportunity to create a threat of amphibious assault near Ochakov, as well as the opportunity to periodically inflict harassing missile and artillery strikes on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the opposite bank. The question is, when is it realistic to expect an operation to free Nikolaev, Ochakov and Odessa?

There are persistent rumors on the Web that tanks and other armored vehicles are gradually accumulating in the Kherson region. However, the front is held there mainly by the forces of the People's Militia, reinforced by units of the RF Armed Forces. There are not yet sufficient resources for a large-scale offensive operation. Everyone is waiting for the positional battles in the Donbass to end and the personnel units of the Russian army to be released.

Consequently, the Nikolaev-Odessa liberation operation may begin in late summer or early autumn 2022.

Galicia-Volyn liberation operation



There is a high probability that simultaneously with the large-scale offensive of the Russian army on Nikolaev and Odessa, Belarus may also join the special military operation. The fact that the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus can really enter Western Ukraine was directly stated by President Lukashenko the day before:

They (Western countries) have not yet abandoned the goal of leveling the front so that it passes: Smolensk-Pskov, Smolensk-Bryansk-Kursk and there to Rostov. They need to level the front. And we, almost a thousand kilometers, this balcony, it must be cut off. This is their goal - they will not stop before this, they will come from Western Ukraine or from somewhere else. Also, maybe they will have to fight for Western Ukraine so that they don’t chop off. Because it is like death for us, not only for Ukrainians. Terrible things are going on all around.


The problem is that the entry of the RF Armed Forces to the border with Transnistria will almost certainly entail the entry of Polish troops into the territory of Western Ukraine as part of a “peacekeeping mission”. About how such an outcome is equally unacceptable for Russia and Belarus, we told previously. The Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, numbering "only" 70000 people, should not be underestimated.

At first, the mobilization reserve allows Minsk to put "under arms" up to 500000 troops.

Secondly, the Territorial Defense Troops, numbering 120000 people, have long been created and are successfully functioning, which will be able to take on the protection of the border with Ukraine.

Thirdly, President Lukashenko recently set the task of creating a kind of "people's militia", within which, apparently, volunteers will be legalized and sent to fight.

The entry of the Belarusian army into Volyn with a simultaneous Russian strike in the northern direction from Odessa will cut off Central Ukraine from Western Ukraine, finally taking it into a super-"cauldron". After that, the fate of the criminal Kyiv regime will be sealed, as we and supposed. Perhaps this will happen in the fall-winter of 2022.
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  1. k7k8 Offline k7k8
    k7k8 (vic) 11 June 2022 12: 04
    +3
    President Lukashenko recently set the task of creating a kind of "people's militia", within which, apparently, volunteers will be legalized and sent to fight

    Why distort something? Lukashenka almost openly said that it would be something like partisan detachments to protect their own territory. They will presumably be created on the basis of the experience of the Second World War, when it was the partisan detachments created in advance that survived under the conditions of occupational terror, in contrast to those formed spontaneously.
  2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 11 June 2022 12: 14
    -3
    Quote: k7k8
    Why distort something? Lukashenka almost openly said that it would be something like partisan detachments to protect their own territory. They will presumably be created on the basis of the experience of the Second World War, when it was the partisan detachments created in advance that survived under the conditions of occupational terror, in contrast to those formed spontaneously.

    Misinterpret? For this, TerO was created a long time ago.
    Duplicate structure is redundant.
    1. k7k8 Offline k7k8
      k7k8 (vic) 11 June 2022 17: 15
      +2
      You undertake to give advice to the president of a foreign country without having dealt with your gears? Congenial!
  3. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 11 June 2022 12: 40
    -3
    I think Lukashenka is a sane politician and will not go for it.
  4. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 11 June 2022 13: 04
    +5
    Quote: Oleg Rambover
    I think Lukashenka is a sane politician and will not go for it.

    You, Olezha, also wrote that there would be no war between Russia and Ukraine. smile
    And I have been writing since 2014 that it was inevitable.
    1. k7k8 Offline k7k8
      k7k8 (vic) 11 June 2022 17: 17
      +1
      And I still believe that this war should not have happened. At least at the initiative of Russia.
      1. guest Offline guest
        guest 11 June 2022 21: 47
        -2
        Well, the war was not initiated by Russia anyway, the West started it.
      2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
        Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 June 2022 07: 20
        +1
        This is due to the inadequacy of the perception of reality. It happens. The main thing is to draw the right conclusions from your mistakes.
  5. The comment was deleted.
  6. alexey alexeyev_2 (Alexey Alekseev) 11 June 2022 13: 31
    +2
    After all, he’s already dealt with liquid forecasts more than once .. Batko, although he is multi-vector, he is unlikely to turn to such a vector request
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 11 June 2022 14: 15
      -1
      On May 5, 2015, I wrote an article on VO called "Requiem for Novorossiya".
      https://topwar.ru/74309-posmotri-rekviem-po-novorossii.html
  7. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 11 June 2022 14: 06
    0
    Quote: alexey alexeyev_2
    After all, he’s already dealt with liquid forecasts more than once .. Batko, although he is multi-vector, he is unlikely to turn to such a vector request

    This is about me? Can I have a couple of specific examples about "working liquid"?
  8. wolf46 Offline wolf46
    wolf46 11 June 2022 14: 56
    +1
    1) The liberation of Donbass: yes, the cleansing of the Lisichansk-Severodonetsk agglomeration (complete liberation of the Luhansk region) and the suburbs of Donetsk (reducing the threat of shelling) are undeniable. In the event of the complete liberation of Donbass, what will the Russian army be like?
    2) Nikolaev-Odessa liberation operation:
    having occupied the area of ​​​​the Kinburn Spit, an attack on Ochakov suggests itself (the resumption of the sea trade of Kherson) with the subsequent liberation of the Nikolaev and northern Odessa regions (access to the Moldovan-Ukrainian border).
    3) Galicia-Volyn liberation operation:
    when the Belarusian army enters the territory of the former Ukraine, then it will be possible to talk about the chances of a super-"boiler", which will result in colossal losses for the attackers. Is the Old Man ready to subscribe to this?
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 11 June 2022 15: 13
      -3
      In the event of the complete liberation of Donbass, what will the Russian army be like?

      I think it will be an experienced and battle-hardened victorious army. The new strategy has led to a radical reduction in losses, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the most combat-ready, on the contrary, are mediocrely grinding.

      when the Belarusian army enters the territory of the former Ukraine, then it will be possible to talk about the chances of a super-"boiler", which will result in colossal losses for the attackers. Is the Old Man ready to subscribe to this?

      We'll see. The decision, I am sure, will be common, between Putin and Lukashenko, and will depend on how the Poles and NATO members behave in general. In memory, if they enter, then simultaneously from the north and south, I believe.
  9. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 11 June 2022 15: 21
    0
    Victory strategy: Russia and Belarus can take Ukraine into a big "cauldron"

    - Alas, Lukashenka can send troops only after the "Donetsk operation" has been successfully completed by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the military forces of the LPR and DPR and after the liberation of Nikolaev and Odessa by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation! - Only then will Lukashenka start moving! - But this may not take place until late autumn (or even in the winter of 2023) !!! - And then, if the next "peace negotiations" - do not ruin again - all military undertakings, advances and successes of our Armed Forces of the Russian Federation !!!
    1. k7k8 Offline k7k8
      k7k8 (vic) 11 June 2022 17: 24
      +1
      You are completely unaware of what Lukashenka did for the NWO. But in the end, everything that was achieved thanks to this support turned out to be mediocrely merged under the guise of a "goodwill gesture"
      1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
        gorenina91 (Irina) 11 June 2022 17: 46
        -3
        You are completely unaware of what Lukashenka did for the NWO.

        - And you, or something - "in the know" ??? - Today Lukashenka is a kind of Venezuelan Maduro! - The West and the Americans made a big mistake that they launched a frantic campaign against Lukashenka - otherwise he would have been "in their ranks" long ago!
        - Yes, even today Lukashenka does not really support the WZO in Ukraine!
        - Yes, it turned out to be a misfire - with the abandonment of positions near Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, etc.; but WSO continues! - And where does fuel and fuel and lubricants come from in Ukraine??? - Isn't it from the Belarusian refinery ???
        - Yes, and how does it happen that not a single Belarusian battalion of volunteers ready to fight against the Ukrainian Nazis has been formed on the territory of Belarus ??? - What - "father does not order" ???
        - He is looking at everything - where is the "profit to catch" ???
        - So Maduro - today he began to "look closely" at the Americans !!!
    2. Vox Populi Offline Vox Populi
      Vox Populi (vox populi) 13 June 2022 17: 12
      +1
      - Alas, Lukashenka can send troops only after the "Donetsk operation" has been successfully completed by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the military forces of the LPR and DPR and after the liberation of Nikolaev and Odessa by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation! - Only then will Lukashenka start moving!

      Why does he need it??? belay
      1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
        gorenina91 (Irina) 13 June 2022 17: 31
        -1
        Why does he need it???

        - Weird question ! - And why did the Belarusian soldiers (as part of the Red Army) and Belarusian partisans need to fight not for life, but for death against Nazi Germany ??? - Do you see any difference in today's situation???
        - And the difference is that Lukashenka cannot get rid of his poorly concealed personal sympathy for Ukraine (even for today's Ukraine, which is in the guise of a fascist Nazi state)! - And he (Lukashenko) would already today - take an active part in the WZO and bring down the power of the Belarusian military on Ukrainian nationalists! What is he waiting for???
        1. vo2022smysl Offline vo2022smysl
          vo2022smysl (Common sense) 13 June 2022 19: 51
          0
          belay For all the ugliness and hostility for us (especially since 2014) of the Ukrainian state, there is no need to pull an owl on the globe ...
  10. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 11 June 2022 15: 22
    0
    Quote: gorenina91
    - Alas, Lukashenka can send troops only after the "Donetsk operation" has been successfully completed by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the military forces of the LPR and DPR and after the liberation of Nikolaev and Odessa by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation! - Only then will Lukashenka start moving! - But this may not take place until late autumn (or even in the winter of 2023) !!!

    So that's what I'm writing about.
    1. k7k8 Offline k7k8
      k7k8 (vic) 11 June 2022 17: 27
      0
      And you are in the same company as gorenina91 in the post above. Do not take it for work, read my answer to her
  11. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 11 June 2022 17: 42
    0
    Quote: k7k8
    And you are in the same company as gorenina91 in the post above. Do not take it for work, read my answer to her

    I know better what company I'm in, and I know more about the SVO and the role of the Republic of Belarus in it, believe me.
    1. k7k8 Offline k7k8
      k7k8 (vic) 11 June 2022 18: 09
      -1
      I do not believe. Otherwise, they would not have published slander against an ally of Russia. But in this case, you have already talked about the article.
      1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
        Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 June 2022 07: 17
        0
        You are simply incompetent in what you are talking about, unlike me. hi
  12. k7k8 Offline k7k8
    k7k8 (vic) 11 June 2022 20: 47
    -2
    Quote: gorenina91
    And you, or something - "in the know" ???

    https://topcor.ru/25978-kogda-i-zachem-belorussija-prisoedinitsja-k-specoperacii-po-osvobozhdeniju-ukrainy.html#comment-id-251624
    And this is far from all that Belarus has done for Russia.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 June 2022 07: 41
      +2
      You obviously don't know that:
      - Belarus allowed to use its territory for the invasion;
      - Belarus allowed the use of its territory for the deployment of Russian airborne forces and tactical missile systems used to deliver strikes against Ukraine at the first stage of the NMD;
      - Belarus is doing everything possible and impossible for the treatment and rehabilitation of wounded Russian servicemen;
      - Belarus received a serious package of sanctions for this (however, we are no stranger to them), as a party to the conflict;
      - Belarus accepted Russian troops back into its territory after the so-called. "gesture of good will" (as you probably remember, which led to the Buchin provocation);
      - and as a result, they remained practically one on one in ensuring the security of their southern borders.

      You said A, so say B.
      Belarus is up to its neck. Will NATO and Ukraine forgive her or not?
      They won't forgive. So what's the conclusion? Belarus, no less than Russia, is interested in the elimination of the current regime. And maybe more.
      1. k7k8 Offline k7k8
        k7k8 (vic) 12 June 2022 11: 48
        -1
        The principle "The shed burned down - burn down and the hut" does not work in politics. And, fortunately, it is not for you to decide what Belarus needs and what it is interested in. And, in fact, the issues of Russian foreign policy are not for you to decide.
        And yes, Belarus did not get into trouble, as you deigned to put it (by the way, this expression of yours showed a great-power chauvinist in you), but fulfilled its allied obligations.
        1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
          Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 June 2022 11: 54
          +1
          And, fortunately, it is not for you to decide what Belarus needs and what it is interested in. And, in fact, the issues of Russian foreign policy are not for you to decide.

          Rather unfortunately.

          And yes, Belarus did not get into trouble, as you deigned to put it (by the way, this expression of yours showed a great-power chauvinist in you), but fulfilled its allied obligations.

          Your comment betrays your complete incompetence on the issue that you undertake to discuss. hi
          1. k7k8 Offline k7k8
            k7k8 (vic) 12 June 2022 11: 56
            +2
            Does the crown shake your head?
            Have you tried electricity to treat narcissism?
            As practice shows, all failed presidents work as taxi drivers and hairdressers. And do not puff your eyes in righteous anger - I do not take the liberty of giving advice to presidents, unlike you.
            Bye
            1. isofat Offline isofat
              isofat (isofat) 12 June 2022 12: 13
              0
              Quote: k7k8
              ...I don't take the liberty of advising presidents

              k7k8, I think you downplay our role in the presidential election.
              1. k7k8 Offline k7k8
                k7k8 (vic) 13 June 2022 22: 20
                0
                Not at all. I have not missed a single election and I understand perfectly well the consequences of the so-called. boycotts of elections (my profile is not closed and you can see for yourself my attitude towards them). But giving advice to an already elected president? Dismiss! To do this, he has a team of specially trained trained mechanisms that receive a salary for this. I can only express my opinion on certain decisions, but you won’t drag me to the barricades “in the name of justice”, because everyone’s vision of justice is different and fighting for someone’s justice is somehow not comme il faut. I will go to fight exclusively for my Motherland and without any questions or rantings.
  13. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 12 June 2022 00: 13
    +1
    The EU is almost 100% NATO members.
    Accession or candidate status of Ukraine to the EU will mean the actual entry into NATO.
    The decision of the EU on granting candidate status to Ukraine is expected at the end of next week.
    If so, this implies the need to solve the issue of denazification of Ukraine or at least the liberation of the DPR-LPR by this date by military or diplomatic means.
    As a condition for starting negotiations, Ukraine requires the withdrawal of troops as of February 24.02.2022, XNUMX, which is unrealistic.
    It is also unrealistic to advance to the westernmost borders of Ukraine.
    The NVO against one of the members, probably also against the EU-NATO candidate, threatens to theoretically escalate into a full-scale war. Theoretical because there is no real preparation for it, but there is a threat if Ukraine is granted the status of a candidate.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 June 2022 07: 18
      -1
      It is also unrealistic to advance to the westernmost borders of Ukraine.

      You are introducing an openly false and wrecking attitude. Why are you doing this?
  14. Vladimir1155 Online Vladimir1155
    Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 12 June 2022 16: 46
    0
    the respected author outlined the most logical step, based on common sense, I will say more, I see no reason to fight for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, we need to transfer forces to the Kherson region and Lviv
  15. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 13 June 2022 13: 11
    0
    The author, as usual, reasoned about the prospects of our NWO. I always follow his publications with interest, they are needed, as S. Marzhetsky tries to substantiate his thoughts with historical and factual material. And we will see what exactly and when will happen, forecasts are an ungrateful thing))
  16. Materialist Offline Materialist
    Materialist (Michael) 19 June 2022 19: 24
    0
    Lukashenka has a Suwalki corridor on the opposite side. It will be hard for him to do it. Only with ours.