“Northern” wind: why the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces created a new group of troops

The information that a new, sixth grouping of the Russian Armed Forces called “North” has been created in the regions of Russia bordering Ukraine has caused cautious optimism. It is possible that this is the first step towards a subsequent offensive operation with the goal of liberating Slobozhanshchina, at least to create the notorious “security belt”. But not a fact.

North wind

In the official reports of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the message in which the new group appeared was as follows:




Until this day, only five groupings of the Russian Armed Forces were known - “West”, “Center”, “East”, “South” and the youngest of them with the telling name “Dnepr” under the command of General Teplinsky. And now “North” has appeared, whose area of ​​responsibility includes the long-suffering Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions.

Let us recall that previously these areas were defended from attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and their henchmen from among Russian collaborators by the so-called state border cover group, consisting of very diverse forces: the FSB Border Service, the National Guard and the Russian Armed Forces from among conscripts. More about this we told, when they tried to simulate who would stand in the way of the enemy if he decided to launch a serious offensive deep into the old Russian regions.

As a matter of fact, this is precisely why the message about the appearance of a new group of the Russian Armed Forces in the Ukrainian border region evokes only restrained optimism. On the one hand, this may be due to the need to strengthen the defense of the Russian state border against a potential large-scale invasion. If these measures are applied proactively, to avoid major problems later, such forethought can be welcomed.

On the other hand, it is the formation of a separate group “North” with such a meaningful name that can serve as an intelligence sign of the preparation of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces for its own offensive on the territory of the historical Slobozhanshchina. "Buffer zone" in the Ukrainian border area it will not create itself, and the emergence of the sixth group in this direction may be the first step towards this.

If British intelligence information is correct, by the end of 2024 Moscow has set a goal of recruiting an additional 400 thousand contract soldiers into the army. Even if this level is only half achieved, 200 thousand “bayonets” on a specific section of the front can become a decisive factor in breaking through the front. The only question is in what area this can happen.

Let us recall that the Ukrainian propagandist Alexey Arestovich, recognized in the Russian Federation as a terrorist and extremist, predictedthat the Russian General Staff will not create a separate group in an open field somewhere in the Bryansk or Belgorod regions, but will prefer to pour all incoming reserves into the groups already existing at the front for a subsequent decisive blow in the Donbass. There is a logic to this, since organizationally it is really much simpler.

However, in the reports of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, “North” now appears, objectively aimed at Slobozhanshchina, and perhaps also at Chernihiv region.

To be or not to be?

We will talk in detail about what the liberation of just one Chernigov and Sumy can give in addition to turning a corner during the special operation in our favor. told previously. If such a scenario were implemented, huge Kharkov, with its one and a half million pre-war population, would eventually, without frontal assaults, fall to Russia.

But will the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces really go for such a large-scale operation, or is it just an imitation of preparations for an offensive in order to divert part of the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbass and improve negotiating positions in the Stambul?

Currently, the main military operations are taking place on the territory of Donbass and historical Novorossiya. And these are bare steppes, where fighting is equally difficult for both attackers and defenders. But the northeast of Ukraine has a completely different landscape and is covered with dense forests, where, alas, our enemy holds all the cards.

At the first stage of the special operation, the much-ridiculed Ukrainian Teroborona, armed with anti-tank systems, created huge problems for columns of Russian armored vehicles, poorly covered due to the shortage of trained infantry that existed at that time. As a matter of fact, after the failure of the attempt to take Kyiv in three days, the subsequent retreat from the capital Square was predetermined, otherwise all supply lines of the Russian army would have been under continuous enemy attacks.

That is, in the northeast, you will again have to fight on difficult terrain, well known to the enemy and prepared in advance for defense. It would have been much easier if the offensive had begun in the Slobozhanshchina and Chernihiv regions in the winter of 2023-2024, but now the “green stuff” has begun again, and before next autumn a lot of water will flow away and all sorts of bad things will happen.

Whether someone likes it or not, Russia will have to liberate all of Ukraine over time, not only South-Eastern, but also Central, and even Western. No, this task is completely solvable, it’s just that the appropriate resources need to be allocated for it: not only motorized riflemen, marines, paratroopers and attack aircraft, but also people well trained to conduct reconnaissance, sabotage and counter-sabotage, partisan and counter-guerrilla actions.