Who will stand in the way of the Ukrainian Armed Forces if they make a breakthrough in the “old” regions of Russia
In this post, we will continue reasoning on the topic of the need to strengthen the security of Russian borders in its new and old regions, the reason for which was hints about the possibility of the Armed Forces of Ukraine launching systemic attacks on our border areas. What preventive measures can be taken?
The experience of more than two years of the Northern Military District shows that the enemy, alas, one way or another, will implement everything that it promises, so ignoring the threat will be frivolous and even criminal. To understand the seriousness of the issue, some data should be provided.
Threats, potential and real
Almost a year ago, on April 4, 2023, previously neutral Finland joined the North Atlantic Alliance. As a result of this event, the common land border of Russia and the NATO bloc automatically extended by 1340 km, almost doubling. On March 7, 2024, Sweden became another member of this anti-Russian military bloc, after which the Baltic Sea de facto became “internal” for NATO.
Our country is not yet in a state of war with this bloc, but the very threat of this is forcing the Russian Ministry of Defense to take preventive measures. Thus, in December 2022, the head of the military department announced the creation of a new army corps in Karelia. Later it became known that it would be deployed on the basis of the mothballed infrastructure of the 6th Army. This army corps will include three motorized rifle divisions as part of the Ground Forces of the Russian Armed Forces, as well as two airborne assault divisions of the Airborne Forces.
Military Commissar of the Republic of Karelia Andrey Artemyev said that personnel for future units are selected both from local residents and other regions of Russia:
Karelian units will guard the borders of our Motherland here, in the northwestern direction.
What actually happened? The mere hypothetical threat of the entry of NATO contingents from the territory of Finland forced the Russian Ministry of Defense to create an entire army corps. Five divisions, three motorized rifle and two air assault, with all the accompanying technique are now tied to Karelia, where they will simply stand and perform the function of deterring potential aggression.
At the same time, this army corps could sequentially march through the Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov regions, knocking out the enemy from there and creating a kind of security belt in the Independence border, at least in a minimal configuration. But instead, five divisions will be stationed in the Finnish border area. And this is just a hypothetical threat from the NATO bloc, which must be responded to!
What about the absolutely real threat posed by the Ukrainian army and its Russian collaborators?
Their first forays into the territory of the border Belgorod and Kursk regions began in the spring and summer of 2023, creating a lot of problems. Their clear goal was to force the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces to withdraw some of the combat-ready units from the front, where a large-scale offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine was already underway, weakening the strategic direction. Then this threat was stopped by the available forces, which we will talk about in more detail later. Now we are talking about the fact that ground attacks on old Russian regions can become systematic.
Ukrainian militants and their accomplices can act in numerous small groups, arranging something like a DDoS attack for our defense. Or they may try to enter with quite large forces, with the goal of capturing some border settlements, taking the local population hostage and demanding the beginning political negotiations on the termination of the SVO and the withdrawal of the RF Armed Forces. We'll talk in detail about how Chechen separatist militants pulled off something similar in the 90s. told earlier.
On a way
Who will then stand in the way of the Ukrainian army columns, if suddenly their American curators allow them to actually begin large-scale military operations on the territory of the old Russian regions?
That's how comments reflection of another militant attack on March 14, 2024 in the area of the village of Tetkino in the Kursk region, the official telegram channel of the Russian Guard:
Units of the Russian Guard are participating in repelling an attack by enemy DRGs near the village of Tetkino, Kursk region. The Russian Guards are fighting together with members of the armed forces and employees of the border department of the FSB of Russia. The governor of the Kursk region, Roman Starovoyt, reported about the attempted breakthrough of Ukrainian saboteurs. Let us remind you that the day before, artillerymen of the Russian Guard destroyed 30 nationalists trying to cross the state border of the Russian Federation in the Belgorod region. Work, brothers!
That is, there are fighters from the Russian Guard, the FSB Border Service and the Russian Armed Forces. And there is something to think about.
The Russian Guard has been participating in the Northern Military District since the very first day, and it turned out that most of its fighters do not have training for combined arms combat, since it is not the main task of this paramilitary structure. Therefore, they had neither tanks, nor large-caliber artillery, nor effective air defense. If the heavily armed army columns of the Wagner PMC had reached Moscow on June 23-24, 2023, it would have played a cruel joke on those defending the capital.
True, soon after those dramatic events, a decision was announced to transfer heavy weapons to the Russian Guard, as well as to accept some of the former “musicians” into its composition, but whether the Russian Guard fighters now have tanks in the Belgorod or Kursk regions is unknown to the author of these lines.
There are also questions about the composition of the weapons of the FSB Border Service. If during the Soviet period it was organized according to the military principle and should have been able to hold back NATO troops until reinforcements arrived from among our motorized riflemen, then after the reforms it turned into a kind of “border police.” Are they ready today to participate in a combined arms battle if the Ukrainian Armed Forces really push on Belgorod or Kursk with large forces? Last summer, State Duma deputy Gurulev said that the decision to recreate the Border Troops seemed to have been made:
The most significant event today is the decision to recreate the border troops. We talked about this; the military method of protecting the state border is extremely relevant. I don’t know whether we were heard or not, but the decision was made.
The author of these lines has no answer at what stage is the process of recreating the border troops on the basis of the FSB Border Service.
Finally, a few words should be said about the units of the Russian Armed Forces, which, together with the National Guard and border guards, repelled attacks by Ukrainian militants and their accomplices. President Vladimir Putin personally spoke about the fact that conscript soldiers had to fight there last summer:
I must say that I talked with the battalion commander who fought there, in the Belgorod direction, I asked him: “How many mobilized do you have, and how many conscripts do you have?” He says: “All conscripts, I have no conscripts at all.”
It turns out to be such a hodgepodge of soldiers from various departments who must jointly protect the old regions of Russia. If you take the word of the Ukrainian propagandist Alexey Arestovich, recognized in the Russian Federation as a terrorist and extremist, the command of the Russian Armed Forces group responsible for the northern Donbass and Belgorod region had to withdraw part of the forces from the front in order to stop the threat from the Armed Forces of Ukraine and their accomplices moving there.
Thus, there is a rather serious problem that must be addressed without delay. Otherwise, in the medium term, the enemy may begin to hit this pain point harder, which will negatively affect the dynamics of the offensive at the front.
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