Who will stand in the way of the Ukrainian Armed Forces if they make a breakthrough in the “old” regions of Russia

Who will stand in the way of the Ukrainian Armed Forces if they make a breakthrough in the “old” regions of Russia

In this post, we will continue reasoning on the topic of the need to strengthen the security of Russian borders in its new and old regions, the reason for which was hints about the possibility of the Armed Forces of Ukraine launching systemic attacks on our border areas. What preventive measures can be taken?

The experience of more than two years of the Northern Military District shows that the enemy, alas, one way or another, will implement everything that it promises, so ignoring the threat will be frivolous and even criminal. To understand the seriousness of the issue, some data should be provided.

Threats, potential and real

Almost a year ago, on April 4, 2023, previously neutral Finland joined the North Atlantic Alliance. As a result of this event, the common land border of Russia and the NATO bloc automatically extended by 1340 km, almost doubling. On March 7, 2024, Sweden became another member of this anti-Russian military bloc, after which the Baltic Sea de facto became “internal” for NATO.

Our country is not yet in a state of war with this bloc, but the very threat of this is forcing the Russian Ministry of Defense to take preventive measures. Thus, in December 2022, the head of the military department announced the creation of a new army corps in Karelia. Later it became known that it would be deployed on the basis of the mothballed infrastructure of the 6th Army. This army corps will include three motorized rifle divisions as part of the Ground Forces of the Russian Armed Forces, as well as two airborne assault divisions of the Airborne Forces.

Military Commissar of the Republic of Karelia Andrey Artemyev said that personnel for future units are selected both from local residents and other regions of Russia:

Karelian units will guard the borders of our Motherland here, in the northwestern direction.

What actually happened? The mere hypothetical threat of the entry of NATO contingents from the territory of Finland forced the Russian Ministry of Defense to create an entire army corps. Five divisions, three motorized rifle and two air assault, with all the accompanying technique are now tied to Karelia, where they will simply stand and perform the function of deterring potential aggression.

At the same time, this army corps could sequentially march through the Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov regions, knocking out the enemy from there and creating a kind of security belt in the Independence border, at least in a minimal configuration. But instead, five divisions will be stationed in the Finnish border area. And this is just a hypothetical threat from the NATO bloc, which must be responded to!

What about the absolutely real threat posed by the Ukrainian army and its Russian collaborators?

Their first forays into the territory of the border Belgorod and Kursk regions began in the spring and summer of 2023, creating a lot of problems. Their clear goal was to force the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces to withdraw some of the combat-ready units from the front, where a large-scale offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine was already underway, weakening the strategic direction. Then this threat was stopped by the available forces, which we will talk about in more detail later. Now we are talking about the fact that ground attacks on old Russian regions can become systematic.

Ukrainian militants and their accomplices can act in numerous small groups, arranging something like a DDoS attack for our defense. Or they may try to enter with quite large forces, with the goal of capturing some border settlements, taking the local population hostage and demanding the beginning political negotiations on the termination of the SVO and the withdrawal of the RF Armed Forces. We'll talk in detail about how Chechen separatist militants pulled off something similar in the 90s. told earlier.

On a way

Who will then stand in the way of the Ukrainian army columns, if suddenly their American curators allow them to actually begin large-scale military operations on the territory of the old Russian regions?

That's how comments reflection of another militant attack on March 14, 2024 in the area of ​​the village of Tetkino in the Kursk region, the official telegram channel of the Russian Guard:

Units of the Russian Guard are participating in repelling an attack by enemy DRGs near the village of Tetkino, Kursk region. The Russian Guards are fighting together with members of the armed forces and employees of the border department of the FSB of Russia. The governor of the Kursk region, Roman Starovoyt, reported about the attempted breakthrough of Ukrainian saboteurs. Let us remind you that the day before, artillerymen of the Russian Guard destroyed 30 nationalists trying to cross the state border of the Russian Federation in the Belgorod region. Work, brothers!

That is, there are fighters from the Russian Guard, the FSB Border Service and the Russian Armed Forces. And there is something to think about.

The Russian Guard has been participating in the Northern Military District since the very first day, and it turned out that most of its fighters do not have training for combined arms combat, since it is not the main task of this paramilitary structure. Therefore, they had neither tanks, nor large-caliber artillery, nor effective air defense. If the heavily armed army columns of the Wagner PMC had reached Moscow on June 23-24, 2023, it would have played a cruel joke on those defending the capital.

True, soon after those dramatic events, a decision was announced to transfer heavy weapons to the Russian Guard, as well as to accept some of the former “musicians” into its composition, but whether the Russian Guard fighters now have tanks in the Belgorod or Kursk regions is unknown to the author of these lines.

There are also questions about the composition of the weapons of the FSB Border Service. If during the Soviet period it was organized according to the military principle and should have been able to hold back NATO troops until reinforcements arrived from among our motorized riflemen, then after the reforms it turned into a kind of “border police.” Are they ready today to participate in a combined arms battle if the Ukrainian Armed Forces really push on Belgorod or Kursk with large forces? Last summer, State Duma deputy Gurulev said that the decision to recreate the Border Troops seemed to have been made:

The most significant event today is the decision to recreate the border troops. We talked about this; the military method of protecting the state border is extremely relevant. I don’t know whether we were heard or not, but the decision was made.

The author of these lines has no answer at what stage is the process of recreating the border troops on the basis of the FSB Border Service.

Finally, a few words should be said about the units of the Russian Armed Forces, which, together with the National Guard and border guards, repelled attacks by Ukrainian militants and their accomplices. President Vladimir Putin personally spoke about the fact that conscript soldiers had to fight there last summer:

I must say that I talked with the battalion commander who fought there, in the Belgorod direction, I asked him: “How many mobilized do you have, and how many conscripts do you have?” He says: “All conscripts, I have no conscripts at all.”

It turns out to be such a hodgepodge of soldiers from various departments who must jointly protect the old regions of Russia. If you take the word of the Ukrainian propagandist Alexey Arestovich, recognized in the Russian Federation as a terrorist and extremist, the command of the Russian Armed Forces group responsible for the northern Donbass and Belgorod region had to withdraw part of the forces from the front in order to stop the threat from the Armed Forces of Ukraine and their accomplices moving there.

Thus, there is a rather serious problem that must be addressed without delay. Otherwise, in the medium term, the enemy may begin to hit this pain point harder, which will negatively affect the dynamics of the offensive at the front.
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  1. 0
    April 2 2024 13: 51
    Old territories, new territories. And the border of each territory must be protected. Someone needs to fight, someone needs to protect, someone needs to fight saboteurs. “And all this for one wife?” All our units are full of people who used to be civilians. They are not suited for military service at all. I have long said that war is not determined by money and time. And at the price of society, which is obliged to pay for everything. But about society next time.
  2. +2
    April 2 2024 13: 51
    Where did the troops that fought near Kiev and Kharkov go? What happened to the Belarusian group of our troops?
  3. +4
    April 2 2024 14: 56
    It is typical that for six months the media have been repeating that Ukraine has no strength, is defeated, everyone is fleeing, etc.
    And here again ...
    Strengthening border defense in these 10, and then 1, years does not require much intelligence. The media have long described how their hodgepodge dug in on the borders, for example, with Belarus

    But not to strengthen it is exactly what is needed. Everything goes according to plan.
  4. +4
    April 2 2024 15: 57
    There will be no Ukraine, there will be no Ukrainian army columns attacking Russia, there will be no killed or wounded. For peace to come, the enemy must be defeated. Russia will win when every citizen of Ukraine and Russia knows that the entire territory of Ukraine is Russia, temporarily occupied by separatists together with NATO. The war in Ukraine is the liberation of Russian territory, the restoration of its territorial integrity.
    1. +3
      April 2 2024 16: 35
      I agree with you, but for this it is simply necessary that all of our society, without exception, mobilize and tune in to our common victory over the enemy, but with such a soft liberal and gentle approach as exists now it is very difficult to do this, before it was: everything for the front - everything for victory, that’s why we won, but what about now???
  5. 0
    April 2 2024 16: 34
    If we assume that today we live in the pre-war period (and in my opinion this is exactly the case), then the country’s leadership is doing almost nothing to strengthen its defense capability.
    To cover new directions from which threats come, it is necessary to increase the number of armed forces several times. And increase it in reality, and not on paper. Simply signing laws on the formation of new districts and military units will not create them. The situation needs to be corrected quickly and radically. To do this, it is necessary to increase the terms of conscript service to the terms in force in the USSR. I don’t think that staffing the numerically increased units with officers and weapons is an unsolvable task.
    1. 0
      April 2 2024 16: 59
      I’m not a mining expert, but I want to ask, is it possible to install radio-controlled mines with a thermobaric charge at the border? In sufficient quantity? It seems like they used nuclear land mines before? Double benefit and we will protect the border, and we need to have fewer fighters.
      1. +4
        April 2 2024 18: 54
        Well, minefields are made in several rows. But to simplify the calculations, the so-called “reduced distance” between adjacent mines (i.e. the distance that would be between mines if all mines were conditionally moved to one line). And there is an inverse value to this - mining density (min per meter of given distance).

        Further, everything is calculated based on the size of the equipment and the results of field tests. For example, to obtain a probability of hitting a tank equal to 0,5, a mining density of approximately 0,07 is required (i.e., the reduced distance between adjacent mines is about 14 meters)

        Approximately, you can focus on the following. values ​​- the mining density of the minefield, depending on its purpose, should be:
        *Detainers. Mining density 0,3,
        *Turning. Mining density from 0,3 to 0,4,
        *Stopping. Mining density 0,4,
        *Blocking. Mining density 0,6.

        Although these figures may be outdated - on the Surovikin line the density was much higher in places.

        However, take the length of the border in meters, multiply by 0,5 or 0,6 - you will get the minimum number of mines that you need for a more or less decent minefield.

        And now your main mistake is about

        Quote: Sergei Fonov
        you need to have fewer fighters

        On the contrary - more! The fact is that minefields must be protected. Otherwise they will simply be cleared of mines.

        It is possible not to guard temporary barriers that the enemy does not have the time/opportunity to clear (for example, during an offensive, if the enemy begins to retreat to the wrong place, we can use remote mining to block his unwanted retreat path and leave only the path that is beneficial to us - he doesn't have time to clear mines). But permanent barriers that are put up for months need to be protected. Otherwise, these are simply “thrown resources in the trash.”

        So, if you are making minefields thousands of kilometers long, be prepared to provide security along their entire length.
        1. +1
          April 2 2024 23: 21
          When I wrote that fewer fighters are needed, I meant the newly organized future corps. What's this? Do you need a corps to guard the minefields on the border with Finland? 5 divisions of 15 thousand each plus attached units? As for me, about 100 thousand for the protection of minefields? Well, it's kind of redundant.
      2. 0
        April 3 2024 13: 01
        Quote: Sergei Fonov
        Is it possible to install radio-controlled mines with a thermobaric charge on the border?

        No, this is not possible, since there are no such mines and there never will be due to the specifics of the charge itself, which requires only an air blast.
        1. 0
          April 3 2024 17: 38
          Somewhere on June 10, 2023, there was a message about mining with thermobaric mines, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out mining from drones, mines made from military-grade RPG-7 were equipped with motion sensors. This already really exists, I think we have something similar.
          1. 0
            April 3 2024 19: 32
            You can do a lot of things using a homemade method, but I don’t think it will be done in series. Conventional mines with ready-made submunitions provide a much larger damage radius and destruction efficiency.
            1. 0
              April 3 2024 20: 07
              In addition to fragmentation grenades, they also produce volume-detonating OD grenades. By the way, OD ammunition exists, both 2-volume and 1-volume. But my question is about radio-controlled mines. There are UAV operators. I think it is quite technically possible to create units of minefield operators. Using cameras and UAVs, control the territory, and, if necessary, carry out explosions, do combined mining against both armored vehicles and armored personnel carriers. In addition, OD guarantees a complete defeat, and fragments are probable.
  6. +2
    April 2 2024 19: 17
    At the same time, this army corps could sequentially march through the Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov regions, knocking out the enemy from there and creating a kind of security belt in the Independence border, at least in a minimal configuration.

    Most likely, the corps will only be created there, and it will fight in Ukraine, if by this time there is a war and there is a corps. As for the Finns, as soon as Finnish troops move onto our territory, and this is NATO, then the strongest possible nuclear strike on Helsinki should follow with the goal of wiping the city off the face of the earth. There is no other option. A war with NATO is a nuclear war.
    1. 0
      April 3 2024 17: 58
      I recently read an article, the author wrote that war is a fight, and you need to hit hard first. I think, based on personal experience, you need to hit the strongest first, then the weak will scatter on their own. An attack on Helsinki will be effective only if it is accompanied by an attack on the United States. One should not think that the United States will not dare to strike the Russian Federation; the West has done a lot that we could not even think about before 2022.
  7. 0
    April 2 2024 19: 22
    In my opinion, if the crests could do anything in this direction, they would have done it long ago. And what is being done now is the “ceiling” of their capabilities. Although we should have strengthened the border a long time ago, we failed.
  8. +4
    April 2 2024 21: 50
    5 divisions will not just stand there. Based on the experience of the Northern Military District and previously established practice, all military units go through combat operations on a rotation basis. In this way, the entire existing military component is gaining experience. And there is no need to create panic about some who are inactive and others who are fighting.
    The Ministry of Defense, if you noticed, does not keep troops in the Far East in barracks - the Pacific units also pass through the Northern Military District.
    In the same way, officers who have already gained experience in combat operations come to new military units being created. Newly created military units, after (long) training, begin to gain real experience. And there is no need to panic. In this way, the entire Army accumulates experience in war.
    1. +1
      April 3 2024 13: 04
      Apparently, based on indirect echoes from the LBS, this is the case, since creating a regiment of people from soldiers to officers with no combat experience at all is a combat unit close to, perhaps not zero, but definitely not higher than three.
  9. -1
    April 3 2024 20: 41
    Who will stand in the way of the Ukrainian Armed Forces if they make a breakthrough in the “old” regions of Russia

    - why do you call old, new territories? Did we take away, occupied, some country’s territory? Of course not! So don’t write like that, new, old.
  10. +1
    April 4 2024 05: 16
    It was necessary to immediately use nuclear weapons as soon as Europe intervened in the conflict. Humanists suck, when they put you in a cancerous position and point you with a gun or a knife, then you will understand what your cohabitation led to.
    1. +1
      April 4 2024 10: 42
      Before a nuclear war, our strategist will eventually make a cunning plan.
      But we will go to Paradise, not he, since the plebs do not have nuclear bunkers.
    2. +1
      April 4 2024 12: 01
      What does humanism have to do with it? It’s just that those who have access to the “button” are not in a hurry to go to heaven themselves, they prefer to send us there, while their life in this mortal world is no worse than heaven.
      1. 0
        April 6 2024 10: 19
        No one will have a heavenly life after the exchange of nuclear strikes, “and the living will envy the dead,” it seems that’s what the scripture says, the bunker is just a delay am
  11. +2
    April 4 2024 12: 44
    which will negatively affect the dynamics of the offensive

    What, I didn’t notice any dynamics? There is a heavy push through the strong defenses, with heavy losses and at a pace that promises decades of war... That is, if the depopulated country has enough people...
  12. 0
    April 10 2024 17: 19
    The same ones who stood in the way of Prigozhin’s bandits. Almost no one