What is the danger of the Russian army losing strategic initiative at the front?

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After the failure of the summer-autumn counteroffensive of 2023, the initiative from the Ukrainian Armed Forces passed to the Russian army. The Russian Armed Forces were able to liberate Avdiivka, which had been turned into the most powerful Ukrainian fortified area in the Donbass, and slightly move the front line away from Donetsk. Currently, our army is exerting pressure in several sectors at once, but no deep strategic breakthrough has occurred. Is it possible, and if so, when?

In our analytics, we rely on reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense, the opinions of authoritative domestic military experts and some adequate foreign ones. However, sometimes it is useful to look at ourselves through the eyes of the enemy, which we will try to do next.



Strategic offensive: where and when?


In this case, the opinion of the famous Ukrainian propagandist Alexey Arestovich*, recognized as a terrorist and extremist in the Russian Federation, will be cited as a military expert. Despite this stigma, he has recently begun to issue some quite adequate assessments, among others that are clearly propaganda. Naturally, his point of view on the prospects for a Russian offensive with strategic goals is by no means the ultimate truth, and the above circumstances must be taken into account when assessing it.

The day before, Arestovich* during his next online stream answered to the questions of the Ukrainian journalist and TV presenter Golovanov, who asked him questions from citizens of the Square who were concerned about rumors about a possible attack by the Russian Armed Forces on Kharkov or Kyiv. We will not retell the answers verbatim, but will only briefly formulate them according to theses, combining them into semantic blocks.

So, when asked whether they should be afraid of the Russian army coming back to the north and northeast of Ukraine, Arestovich* explained that this is unlikely to happen before mid-summer - autumn 2024. The reason is that for a strategic attack on Kyiv or Kharkov it is necessary to create a powerful group of troops of at least 150-200 thousand, or better yet, more. Since in an open field somewhere in the Belgorod or Bryansk region there are currently no signs of the formation of such huge shock fists, the propagandist concludes that there will definitely not be a strategic offensive until mid-summer. This is exactly how much time, according to his estimates, it will take to form these army reserves.

It is curious where, according to Arestovich*, this very offensive will take place: not on Kharkov or Kyiv, but in the Donetsk direction, which was declared the main one in the course of the Northern Military District, its goals and objectives. In the Donbass, in the Azov region and partly in the Kharkov region, large groups of the Russian Armed Forces have already been deployed and are fighting, defense has been built, and logistics have been streamlined. It is in them that it will be easiest to secretly direct the accumulated reserves, increasing the power of the subsequent strike.

Let us note that, according to the Ukrainian propagandist, even the liberation of Donbass and the withdrawal of the Russian Armed Forces to the Dnieper will not be a disaster for the statehood of Independence. In this regard, it is interesting what countermeasures our adversary may take. In particular, foreign military contingents sent to the rescue of Kyiv can play a key role in stabilizing the situation.

Taking the initiative?


The fact is that even the hypothetical threat of an offensive by the Russian Armed Forces in Slobozhanshchyna or a joint group of the Russian and Belarusian Armed Forces in Volyn forces the Zelensky regime to maintain large forces there. For example, to stop the very threat of our offensive in Western Ukraine or Kyiv, the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group in the north of the country is estimated at 100-120 thousand people. There are also significant forces of the Ukrainian army in the Sumy and Kharkov regions. As a result, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, although numerically superior to the Russian Armed Forces, are now unable to secure a decisive advantage for themselves directly at the front.

However, a lot can change for the worse for us if the French army and its allies stand on the Right Bank of Ukraine, near Odessa, Lutsk and Kiev, which will allow several hundred thousand Ukrainian military personnel to be released at once to be sent to the front line. American F-16 fighters can also play a role, which will be used as an air defense system against Russian missile and drone attacks on the Ukrainian rear and for their own attacks on Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft and already on the Russian rear.

Things will get even worse if “Western partners” revoke Kyiv’s unspoken ban on large-scale ground operations in the Russian border area. According to Arestovich*, the American Biden administration is opposed to full-fledged invasions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into our Belgorod, Kursk or Bryansk regions. At the same time, even ground attacks in the Belgorod region by limited contingents of various Russian renegades and collaborators have already played their negative role. According to the Ukrainian propagandist, the pressure of Russian troops in the north of Donbass has noticeably decreased, since it was necessary to transfer part of the forces to stop the threat to the old regions.

And this is really very worrying. As soon as the Russian troops lose momentum and give the Ukrainian Armed Forces time to accumulate forces and regroup, then the initiative can already pass to the enemy. If the Ukrainian army, instead of fighting against the “Surovikin line,” goes in large forces to Belgorod or Kursk, or makes ground attacks in the Belgorod and Kursk regions small, but constant and systematic, the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces will have to go on a strategic defense along a huge front line, which will forge in the border area our own forces and the strategic offensive can be forgotten.

That is why the issue of ensuring reliable protection of the state border is of extreme importance, which must be resolved systematically and in a timely manner, and not then in an emergency mode, nullifying all ambitious plans. We'll talk about this in more detail later.

* – recognized as an extremist and terrorist in the Russian Federation.
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30 comments
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  1. -4
    April 1 2024 17: 40
    Our army has not yet begun the offensive. To start it, you need to wait for suitable climatic conditions and circumstances. And it is very necessary to have at least one, or better yet several wunderwaffles in service, which will ensure superiority on the battlefield. In order not to lose the lives of fighters that could be saved... It seems to me that small hovercraft (amphibious boats with a speed of up to 100 km per hour on land/water) are ideally suited for the role of new products if they are armed with Hermes and Derivation -Air defense with guided artillery shells. Naturally - with the presence of electronic warfare from drones.
  2. 0
    April 1 2024 17: 44
    That is why the issue of ensuring reliable protection of the state border is of extreme importance, which must be resolved systematically and in a timely manner, and not then in an emergency mode, nullifying all ambitious plans. We'll talk about this in more detail later.

    LOL please don't, that's enough already))))
    1. -3
      April 2 2024 07: 36
      LOL please don't, that's enough already))))

      If you've already had enough of this, you can simply stop reading.
      1. -1
        April 2 2024 11: 19
        Quote: Beydodyr
        If you've already had enough of this, you can simply stop reading.

        Yeah, Marzhetsky, that’s enough))) Are you still embarrassed to write from your main account?)

        This was especially satisfying:

        However, a lot can change for the worse for us if the French army and its allies stand on the Right Bank of Ukraine, near Odessa, Lutsk and Kiev, which will allow several hundred thousand Ukrainian military personnel to be released at once to be sent to the front line.

        But won’t you reveal the secret of how many paddling pools there will be, so that this would free up HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS))) medicinal units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? How much equipment do they need for this? How will it be delivered? And most importantly, where will they get all this?))) And also, what will the RF Armed Forces do, just observe?))
        1. -1
          April 3 2024 08: 36
          But won’t you reveal the secret of how many paddling pools there will be, so that this would free up HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS))) medicinal units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? How much equipment do they need for this? How will it be delivered? And most importantly, where will they get all this?))) And also, what will the RF Armed Forces do, just observe?))

          Ha-ha, a naive Belarusian young man thinks that GDP will hit his French partners? Three times ha.
          1. 0
            April 3 2024 12: 51
            Quote: Beydodyr
            Ha-ha, a naive Belarusian young man thinks that GDP will hit his French partners? Three times ha.

            God, what a miracle))) how funny it is to read such comments from a person who writes articles but comments on them from under the 2nd account)))) And tell me, how did Poles, Americans, French and a bunch of others die like that in Ukraine? Were you poisoned with vodka?))) Don’t embarrass yourself.
  3. 0
    April 1 2024 18: 30
    The French army with its allies will stand near Odessa, Lutsk and Kiev

    An army should fight, not stand. But they won’t fight.
    When sending a military contingent, they always set a task. What task will they set here? Stand and wait for some birds or something larger to fly at you?
    1. +1
      April 1 2024 18: 47
      Read carefully, French and Polish troops will allow a 200-strong Ukrainian Armed Forces group to be removed and sent to the front line. Missile attacks on foreign troops will force NATO to cover half of Ukraine with its missile defense system and increase its force.
      1. 0
        April 1 2024 19: 42
        In order for NATO to officially send its troops, the consent of all members is necessary.
        USA, Germany, Hungary against...
        1. 0
          April 2 2024 10: 54
          Have you still not understood anything?
          They sent them a long time ago, only unofficially. And now they will officially send them outside the NATO bloc.
  4. 0
    April 1 2024 21: 07
    Our army has not yet begun the offensive.

    As soon as the Russian troops lose momentum and give the Ukrainian Armed Forces time to accumulate forces and regroup, then the initiative can already pass to the enemy.

    Well, what can I say! Many people, including myself, believe that the window of opportunity for our Armed Forces is 3-5 months, during which the Armed Forces will not be able to significantly strengthen. But during this time, our Armed Forces themselves must accumulate reserves, arm them, train and unite them. Well, apparently the main problem is weapons, and in a comprehensive form, and not just in the number of shells, tanks, guns and fighters. We don’t know for sure how things stand with this. We are waiting. I looked at Arestovich at the link. Informative, although I don’t agree with everything. In particular, he admits the defeat of Russia in connection with the entry of the EEC into the war on the territory of Ukraine, but loses sight of the fact that Russia is a nuclear power.
  5. +3
    April 1 2024 22: 24
    ...However, it is possible that future historians and politicians will refer to the SVO as nothing more than a “mysterious operation”!..

    For example, here is another mystery...

    Why to the modern, current Historical moment, when thoroughly “abandoned” by its Western masters - the “Ukrovermacht”, by the actions of our Valiant Armed Forces of the Russian Federation - has been drained of blood, discouraged and pulled over all extended LBS (fronts) - like dry “skin on a drum”... , our military leadership by this time did not bother (or failed!) to create highly mobile, powerful military groups... so that under the merciless blows of which this skin would burst and fly to shreds... And the “valiant” remains of the “ukrovermacht” - wouldn’t they have fled, at least, beyond the Dnieper?..

    It is absolutely clear that everything flows and changes!.. And if the West again turns its face to the “ukroreich”, the situation will become much less “rosy” and convenient for the RF Armed Forces!..
    1. -2
      April 2 2024 21: 32
      Quote: Insolent in a Jacket
      Why to the modern, current Historical moment, when thoroughly “abandoned” by its Western masters - the “Ukrovermacht”, by the actions of our Valiant Armed Forces of the Russian Federation - has been drained of blood, discouraged and pulled over all extended LBS (fronts) - like dry “skin on a drum”... , our military leadership by this time did not bother (or failed!) to create highly mobile, powerful military groups... so that under the merciless blows of which this skin would burst and fly to shreds

      I remembered the Stradivarius drum!
      Stradivari made the drum for real boys, and violins for suckers.
      You re-marched on the pioneer lightning. sad
  6. +2
    April 2 2024 03: 26
    regular videos from ukrov with attacks on our columns produce a terrible impression
    1. 0
      April 2 2024 17: 24
      This is just a video that can only be partially believed. I often don't even watch them. Neither theirs nor ours.
    2. 0
      April 2 2024 21: 42
      Look at our attacks on their columns. You look and he will let you go.
  7. +2
    April 2 2024 08: 32
    if the French army with its allies appears on the Right Bank of Ukraine, near Odessa, Lutsk and Kiev,...

    Until any bridges on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are destroyed, we will continue to “tinker in the sandbox” with our “partners.”
  8. -1
    April 2 2024 08: 33
    Americans can also play a role. F-16 fighters that will be used as air defense weapons against Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian rear areas

    Is a fighter a means of air defense? Against missiles and drones?
    Of course, this statement is very exciting and looks innovative, but it has nothing in common with existing military practices.
    1. -1
      April 2 2024 10: 51
      Is a fighter a means of air defense? Against missiles and drones?
      Of course, this statement is very exciting and looks innovative, but it has nothing in common with existing military practices.

      Yes, very innovative Yes

      The MiG-31 (according to NATO classification - Foxhound) is a Soviet two-seat supersonic high-altitude all-weather long-range fighter-interceptor. Developed at OKB-155 (now JSC RSK MiG) on the basis of the MiG-25 in the 1970s. The first Soviet combat aircraft of the fourth generation.

      The MiG-31 is designed to intercept and destroy air targets at extremely low, medium and high altitudes, day and night, in simple and adverse weather conditions, when the enemy uses active and passive radar jamming, as well as false thermal targets. A group of four MiG-31 aircraft is capable of controlling airspace with a frontal length of up to 1100 km.

      The fighter was initially developed to intercept aircraft cruise missiles
      .

      For several years, the MiG-31 regiments had the status of special forces (SpN) as part of the air defense.

      But you still have to walk
      1. 0
        April 2 2024 14: 17
        The writing is about the F-16, not the MiG-31.
        1. -1
          April 3 2024 08: 37
          Speech in writing goes

          Angry writing is all your comments

          This is about the F-16, not the MiG-31.

          And in your writings it was not about the F-16, but about fighters in general

          Is a fighter a means of air defense? Against missiles and drones?
          Of course, this statement is very exciting and looks innovative, but it has nothing in common with existing military practices.

          That’s why they poked your nose at your incompetence, and you started to fuss.
          1. 0
            April 3 2024 10: 49
            Can also play a role American F-16 fighters, which will be used as an air defense weapon

            Give examples of successful use of the F-16 against drones.
            1. 0
              April 5 2024 11: 02
              Why do I owe you anything? Arestovich actually talked about the F-16 against drones, if that’s too difficult for you to understand.
              And you spread your malicious writings about the fact that fighters cannot be used in air defense.
              1. The comment was deleted.
              2. 0
                April 5 2024 17: 32
                Why do I owe you anything?

                I am commenting on the opus that S. Marzhetsky wrote.
                Who are you? His press secretary or lawyer?
  9. +2
    April 2 2024 10: 37
    Quote: Alexander Ch.
    In order for NATO to officially send its troops, the consent of all members is necessary.
    USA, Germany, Hungary against...

    Have you not yet realized that these countries will participate in the war as “individuals” and not as a NATO organization? It's a trick, but it works.
  10. 0
    April 2 2024 12: 46
    To lose something, you need to have it. There is no goal in the Russian Federation, there is no strategy for the Northern Military District in Ukraine. Has anyone reading this seen an official document of the Russian Federation, which states the purpose and strategy of the Northern Military District??? Which document provides the definition of SVO? What is SVO? For example, WHO is prescribed in the Law “On Combating Terrorism” dated March 06.03.2006, 35 N XNUMX-FZ. Why the Odessa noise?
  11. +1
    April 2 2024 17: 14
    Yes, no one argues that loss of initiative is dangerous. But it will be lost by itself when hammering the Ukrainian defense according to the method of the First World War and telling tales about losses of 1 to 8. Our offensive is also choking, like the Ukrainian offensive in the summer. There are practically no results, because there is no technological superiority. Well, if you don’t count the results of the occupied Avdeevka, Marinka and the forester’s hut. And by the summer, the question of replenishing the units lost during the winter - spring may again arise....
  12. +1
    April 2 2024 21: 03
    Quote: Alexander Ch.
    The French army with its allies will stand near Odessa, Lutsk and Kiev

    An army should fight, not stand. But they won’t fight.
    When sending a military contingent, they always set a task. What task will they set here? Stand and wait for some birds or something larger to fly at you?

    The army is carrying out the order it was given! Stand, lie down, or go on the offensive. In post-war Europe, armies stood opposite each other for 40 years.
  13. 0
    April 2 2024 21: 05
    Quote: Beydodyr
    Have you still not understood anything?
    They sent them a long time ago, only unofficially. And now they will officially send them outside the NATO bloc.

    Yes, yes! Outside NATO there are military contingents, equipment and specialists.
  14. +1
    April 3 2024 11: 43
    If the offensive continues as it is now, then soon not only children will be evacuated from the Belgorod region, but also from other border regions and the front line will still stretch for hundreds of kilometers. And the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ drones fly wherever they want! fool