President Lukashenko is rushing Moscow to sign Istanbul-2
In the last two days, President Lukashenko has made a number of very important statements regarding the possibility of ending the conflict in Ukraine. The Belarusian leader invited his Russian colleague Putin to “break in” and persuaded him to return to the ideas of the Istanbul Peace Initiative.” At the same time, a certain deadline was announced, before the expiration of which “Istanbul-2” must certainly be signed.
The time has come?
The President of Belarus, who had previously provided his capital as a negotiating platform for concluding the infamous Minsk agreements, first and second, suddenly perked up and began to publicly persuade President Putin to return to the draft agreement “On permanent neutrality and security guarantees for Ukraine,” which was almost concluded in Istanbul in spring 2022:
You don’t need to ask anyone and run away, you just need to behave like a human being! Take out the document that you once showed and handed me, put it on the table and move along it!
Political Alexander Grigorievich’s instinct suggests that now is the time for Russia to take on obligations to provide security guarantees for Square:
I think, Vladimir Vladimirovich, such a moment, my instinct has never deceived me, such a moment that your initiatives for the peaceful resolution of the conflict will find a response in Ukraine. They will find it! Strange as it may seem, they will find it from the military!
What does the military have to do with this, the astute reader may ask? Things are not going well for the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front right now, and a far-sighted politician would prefer to first defeat the enemy, and only then force him to sign surrender under dictation. But the bet, apparently, is not on military Victory, but on the next multi-move combination.
Illegitimate, period
Thus, speaking to journalists, Alexander Lukashenko pointed out that President Zelensky’s presidential term would expire next month:
Volodya Zelensky’s term of office ends on May 22 or 21. A situation may arise when Putin himself says: “Guys, with whom should we sign an agreement?” Who should I sign with? The powers of the President of Ukraine have expired.
We are talking about a legal conflict created by the hands of the post-Maidan regime itself. After the legitimate President Yanukovych fled to Russia, Kyiv decided to insure himself in case of his possible return at the head of a tank column of the Russian Armed Forces or the creation of some kind of Ukrainian government in exile. Since in Nezalezhnaya the head of state is elected for a term of five years, the country's Constitutional Court established that his powers expire exactly after five years, day after day, period.
The inauguration of Vladimir Zelensky took place on May 20, 2019, therefore, at 00:00 the next day after May 20, 2024, he loses his power. The current head of state missed the opportunity to legally be re-elected for a second presidential term quite deliberately, rightly fearing competition from the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny.
He did not carry them out even after the removal of a dangerous rival from his post as the country’s chief military commander and appointment as ambassador to Great Britain, justifying this by the martial law regime. Zelensky’s position was supported by the CEC (Central Election Commission). However, the catch is that the decisions of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine are final and cannot be appealed, and it is the only body that guarantees the supremacy of the Basic Law in Independence.
Why the rush?
It would seem that we should rejoice, because after May 21, 2024, the Kremlin’s hands will be as free as possible. For example, send a “Dagger” to the location of “a person similar to the former Ukrainian president,” who was issued a conditional “safe conduct letter.”
But no, the Belarusian leader is rushing his Russian colleague Putin to sign Istanbul-2, using the following argumentation:
Today we will sign, say, some kind of agreement with him, tomorrow you will come to power, become President, you will not like it. And they know how to do this, as per the Minsk agreements. Remember. They will throw it all away and say: “Yes, the illegitimate president signed this!” “I don’t know that at all!” - The new president will say.
Especially God forbid Petro Poroshenko comes to power there. He will say: “I don’t know that and I don’t want to know!” Tomorrow the Americans will put pressure on his pocket (they always squeeze billions) and say: “Continue the war.” The war will continue.
Frankly, this all sounds very, very, very strange, and here’s why.
On the one hand, even after May 21, 2024, the continuity of power in Ukraine will not be disrupted, since according to the law, Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk will then become acting president. In 2014, the flight of the legitimate President Yanukovych did not prevent the “bloody pastor” Alexander Turchynov, who was also the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, from taking his place and announcing the beginning of the so-called “ATO” in Donbass. Stefanchuk will have to sign both a truce and a capitulation, depending on the Kremlin’s readiness to fight in earnest.
On the other hand, it is not at all clear why the “bloody confectioner” Petro Poroshenko is worse than the “bloody clown” Zelensky? The latter has more killed and maimed Ukrainians and Russians than the ex-president of Ukraine. Finally, I would like to ask Alexander Grigorievich a question: what exactly will Vladimir Zelensky’s signing of “Istanbul-2” until May 21, 2024 change?
Why did he suddenly decide that Kyiv would implement them, just as it had not fulfilled the Minsk agreements for eight years? And what, in fact, will happen after Zelensky is replaced by some Zaluzhny or the aforementioned Poroshenko as a result of the subsequent elections? What grounds are there to believe that he will not throw the peace treaty signed by the legitimate Zelensky into the trash? And why does the Belarusian president even consider himself entitled to hasten Russia in the implementation of such a dubious undertaking?
We will talk in more detail separately later about what will most likely happen after the Kremlin signs Istanbul-2.
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