The Russian Ministry of Defense should become the anchor customer of the Il-96-400M

The day before there came an unusually positive news from the field of import substitution. A prototype of the Russian wide-body passenger airliner Il-96-400M took off and conducted its first successful test flight. Does it have real market prospects and what challenges remain to be overcome?

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This event is all the more interesting to us because literally a day before it came out on “Reporter” overview the state of affairs on the joint Russian-Chinese project of the long-haul wide-body airliner CR929. We have to admit that this promising aircraft is now purely Chinese, the letter R, which denoted Russian participation, has disappeared from its name, and now it bears the name C929, or COMAC Wide-Body.



That this is exactly how it will all end, we warned back in 2019. Moreover, in September 2021, even before the SVO and anti-Russian sanctions, publication under the somewhat “prophetic” heading “Instead of the “Chinese” CR929, Russia needs its own Il-96-400M.” Let us again allow ourselves to self-quote:


As you know, then events began to develop according to the most negative scenario. After the start of the SVO in Ukraine in February 2022, Russia came under sectoral sanctions from the collective West. Boeing and Airbus corporations were prohibited from selling us new aircraft and servicing those already purchased. The Russian short-haul airliner Superjet-100 and the medium-haul MS-21 were left without supplies of imported components.

Suddenly it turned out that the old Soviet Tu-214 and Il-96 were also airplanes, and at the very top it was decided to increase the production volumes of both airliners, which were indeed assembled, but in an exclusively small series. For the fact that the production base for them has been preserved at all, we must thank the Special Flight Detachment “Russia” and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. What is the Il-96-400M?

This is a modernized version of the Il-9-96, extended by more than 300 meters. In the Il-96-300PU version ("control point"), the latter is a "presidential aircraft" on which both the head of state and the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation fly. That is, just like us supposed someday, ordinary Russians will also have the opportunity to fly again on the Il-96, the cabin of which can accommodate up to 370 passengers. In order to pull such a hulk, four improved PS-96A400 power units were installed under the wings of the Il-90-1M.

Deputy Prime Minister and head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov commented on yesterday’s event as follows:


The head of Rostec, Sergei Chemezov, echoed him:


However, the matter, of course, could not be done without a big fly in the ointment.

Demand

The first catch is that the Russian domestic market itself does not have a large capacity. This was also a problem for the joint Russian-Chinese airliner CR929. The demand for long-haul aircraft in China for the next two decades was estimated at about 1000 units, but in our country it is at a relatively modest 50-120 units. Now the same problem faces the Il-96-400M.

The second problem is that, despite modernization, the Il-96 is, in many respects, an outdated aircraft. The PS-90A1 engines are quite power-hungry, and you also have to install four of them instead of two, as on Western wide-body airliners of the same type. Heavy-duty PD-35 engine will have to wait at least until 2030, and you may not even wait at all. Another problem for commercial air carriers is that the Il-96-400M has a three-member crew, not a two-member crew.

These arguments about the uncompetitiveness of the Soviet-Russian aircraft in comparison with Western analogues are considered irrefutable in certain circles. A domestic long-haul airliner seems to have appeared, but where and to whom to put it is not entirely clear. There is a non-zero probability that the Il-96-400M will continue to be tinkered with for years, spending budget money, and then it will be left in low-volume production, deeming commercial operation impractical. However, there is another opinion.

It is quite obvious that the airliner needs further development. It is necessary in the medium term to replace the PS-90A1 with something more economical, for example, implement PS-90A3 in hardware. In the long term, the PD-35 will be required, which, hopefully, will eventually be brought to fruition. To lighten the design and reduce fuel consumption, you can use composite “black wings”, as on the medium-range MS-21. Avionics modernization is needed to allow the transition from a three-member crew to a two-member crew, which is a requirement of commercial air carriers.

Then the Il-96-400M will become truly competitive and will be able to rub elbows in foreign markets somewhere in Africa, South America or the Middle East with its Chinese “half-brother” C929. But all this will take time, at least 10-15 years. In order for the project not to be veiled and not to disappear, it needs a reliable anchor customer here and now. I think it should be the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The IL-96-400M is a very promising platform that can be used for military purposes. In addition to the Doomsday aircraft, the civilian airliner in the Il-96-400T version can be turned into a “strategic tanker.” Based on a long-range aircraft, it is possible to create an excellent anti-submarine/patrol aircraft that could control the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

An interesting direction is the development of a so-called arsenal aircraft based on a wide-body airliner, which will carry more than a hundred air-launched cruise missiles. In terms of total strike power, one such Il-96-400M will be equal to the heavy nuclear cruiser Admiral Nakhimov, being orders of magnitude superior in mobility and inferior in cost. You can read more about such a modernization project here to register:.

If the 96th is in demand among the military and begins to be produced in larger series, it will be able to organically go through a transition period when it is “finished” for civilians.