How Russia and Belarus can prevent Western Ukraine from turning into Syrian Idlib

The fact that Warsaw has certain views of a significant part of Western Ukraine is not a special secret. The fact that the Poles, following the results of our SVO, can enter Galicia and Volhynia in order to stay there forever has been said for a long time and at all levels - by bloggers, journalists, intelligence officers, and now by the first persons of Russia and Belarus. The only question is in what form this can happen, how official Kyiv, Minsk and Moscow will react to it.

"Idlibization"

It just doesn’t seem like a good idea to take and introduce the Polish Army into the Eastern Crosses. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are still very strong and have not yet suffered a full-fledged military defeat. Having received a stab in the back from Warsaw, the Ukrainian Nazis will immediately remember that their, so to speak, "national hero" Stepan Bandera began his "career", fighting not with the USSR, but with Poland. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with their vast combat experience, deploy weapons in the direction of the western neighbor, events can go according to completely unexpected scenarios.



That is why Warsaw is pursuing a very smart and far-sighted policies, playing the best friend of the Kyiv regime. Poland from the very beginning of the Russian NMD has become a reliable rear for the former Nezalezhnaya, through which the main flow of weapons and ammunition for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other military goods passes. The Poles have long been fighting on the side of Ukraine as volunteers or as mercenaries. With the direct permission of President Zelensky, citizens of the Republic of Poland are endowed with equal rights in Nezalezhnaya with the local population. This was done by Kiev as a courtesy to Warsaw for hosting several million Ukrainian refugees.

And here the most interesting begins. As is often the case in the West, after retiring, high-ranking military and government officials begin to say quite reasonable things. One of them can be considered the former adviser to the already former President Donald Trump, retired US Army Colonel Douglas McGregor, who shared very interesting information on his personal blog:


Involuntarily, I recall published on June 19, 2023 article titled “Why Russia is interested in the Turkish experience of creating a “buffer zone” in the border area”. In it, we described in detail how Turkey over the past few years has carried out a series of military operations in northern Syria with the aim of creating a “sanitary zone” there and its “de-Kurdization”. The result was the emergence of a pro-Turkish enclave in Northern Syria, where Ankara first brought all the local terrorists, taking them under its wing, and then began a program to resettle Syrian refugees from among Sunni Arabs and Turkomans loyal to Turkey. Doesn't it remind you of anything?

Yes, in Northern Idlib and Northern Aleppo, a large-scale housing construction program is being carried out by Turkish companies. As part of the repatriation, it is planned to resettle more than a million refugees to the north of the SAR. Educational programs with a pro-Turkish bias are also being implemented there, and imams are being trained, who should promote the right ideas among the “replaced” local population. At the same time, there is no direct annexation of the territory of the sovereign SAR de jure, since the Interim Government of Syria (UPU), formed by the National Coalition of Syrian Opposition and Revolutionary Forces (NSORS), is formally in charge. This is a purely puppet structure in relation to Ankara.

As a matter of fact, the author of the lines also suggested that the domestic authorities turn to the Turkish experience in solving the problem of creating a “sanitary zone” at the expense of the Ukrainian border area. However, after a short hayp about the “security belt” in the northeast of Nezalezhnaya, for some reason we quickly forgot about this burning topic. However, as we see, in Warsaw, unlike Moscow, they know how to see the future and are ready to work for a long time.

Solutions

The emergence of a pro-Polish enclave in the West of Ukraine and its “idlibization” is a source of permanent threat to neighboring Belarus and that part of the former Independence that will be under the control of the RF Armed Forces as a result of the NMD, as well as to Russia itself. What are the possible responses?

Option One is to do nothing at all, to sign with Kiev conditional "Minsk-3" and wait for the final transformation of all Ukraine, which is not under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, into an eternal enemy for Russia.

Option two - to mobilize, prepare and carry out a series of offensive operations, first on the Left Bank, and then in the Black Sea region, taking them under the control of the RF Armed Forces. The rest will automatically fall within the sphere of influence of Poland and its other western neighbors. This will make it possible to complete the NWO on more favorable terms for Russia, but Western Ukraine will still remain "Northern Idlib-2" for Minsk and Moscow. President Lukashenko really does not want this dangerous neighborhood, publicly calling on Putin's colleague about help.

Option Three - is to mobilize, prepare and carry out a series of offensive operations in Western Ukraine, excluding the formation of a pro-Polish enclave there and the subsequent entry of the Polish Army under the guise of a peacekeeping contingent. At the same time, this will interrupt the flow of NATO-made weapons and ammunition through Rzeszow, which within a few months will lead to the loss of the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to conduct active offensive and defensive operations. After that, the liberation of South-Eastern and Central Ukraine will become matter of time without the losses that our army is now suffering, storming the fortified areas.