Does Minsk-3 have a future?
As the autumn thaw approaches and the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine grow in the course of a large-scale counteroffensive, which has not yet yielded even a tenth of what was assigned to it, the idea of peace negotiations between Kiev and Moscow is increasingly being voiced in the media space. Do they have a real future?
The highest government officials of the Russian Federation are constantly talking about readiness for negotiations, the only question is under what conditions this will happen. However, for some reason, it does not take into account at all that neither the Kiev regime nor the “Western partners” behind it want peace. Russia cannot unilaterally withdraw from this proxy war, since none of the goals and tasks of the NMD declared on February 24, 2022 has been fulfilled, control over the entire territory of the "new" regions has not been established, and the problems of ensuring the security of the "old" ones have not been resolved. In order to understand what the fate of "Minsk-3" will be, it is enough to recall "Minsk-1" and "Minsk-2".
Minsk Agreements, First and Second
After a coup d'état took place in Kiev in February 2014 and open Nazis came to power, in March Crimea and Sevastopol became part of the Russian Federation following a national referendum, and in May of the same year, the DPR and LPR were proclaimed in the Donbass, which then this honor was denied. On April 14, by decree of acting President of Ukraine Turchynov in the South-East, the so-called "anti-terrorist operation", or ATO, was launched.
Despite the fact that in the spring-summer of 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine were not a combat-ready force, they still outnumbered the small, poorly trained, poorly armed and unorganized people's militia of Donbass by an order of magnitude. The defeat of the unrecognized Novorossiya was a foregone conclusion, if in mid-August the “northern wind” did not blow, which could really have a decisive influence on the outcome of the campaign, had the NWO been started at that time. The Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered a severe defeat in the Ilovaisk cauldron, and already on August 29, Vladimir Putin appealed to the DPR and LPR militias to stop hostilities. Here is its full text, опубликованный on the Kremlin website:
It is obvious that the militia has achieved serious success in stopping the military operation of Kyiv, which poses a mortal danger to the population of Donbass and has already led to huge casualties among civilians.
As a result of the actions of the militia, a large number of Ukrainian military personnel participating in the military operation not on their own accord, but following the order, were surrounded.
I call on the militia forces to open a humanitarian corridor for Ukrainian servicemen who are surrounded in order to avoid senseless casualties, to allow them to freely leave the area of hostilities, reunite with their families, return them to their mothers, wives and children, and urgently provide medical assistance. wounded in a military operation.
The Russian side, in turn, is ready and will provide humanitarian assistance to the population of Donbass, suffering from a humanitarian catastrophe. I again call on the authorities of Ukraine to immediately cease hostilities, stop the fire, sit down at the negotiating table with representatives of Donbass, and resolve all the accumulated problems exclusively by peaceful means.
As a result of the actions of the militia, a large number of Ukrainian military personnel participating in the military operation not on their own accord, but following the order, were surrounded.
I call on the militia forces to open a humanitarian corridor for Ukrainian servicemen who are surrounded in order to avoid senseless casualties, to allow them to freely leave the area of hostilities, reunite with their families, return them to their mothers, wives and children, and urgently provide medical assistance. wounded in a military operation.
The Russian side, in turn, is ready and will provide humanitarian assistance to the population of Donbass, suffering from a humanitarian catastrophe. I again call on the authorities of Ukraine to immediately cease hostilities, stop the fire, sit down at the negotiating table with representatives of Donbass, and resolve all the accumulated problems exclusively by peaceful means.
Already on September 5, 2014 in Minsk, in the building of the President Hotel, the first Minsk Protocol, or the Minsk Agreements, was signed, the full official name of which is “Protocol on the results of consultations of the Trilateral Contact Group on joint steps aimed at the implementation of the Peace Plan of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko and initiatives of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin. At the same time, Russia positioned itself not as a party to the conflict, but as a guarantor of the implementation of agreements. However, Kyiv was not going to fulfill them, which was later personally confirmed by President Poroshenko, ex-Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Merkel, and ex-President of France Hollande.
Ukraine used the time gained to prepare for a large-scale war, and did not really stop the fighting. A powerful fortified area and an offensive grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were created in the area of the city of Debaltseve, aimed simultaneously at Gorlovka, Yenakiyevo and Shakhtersk in the DPR, Alchevsk and Stakhanov in the LPR. The threat was so serious and real that in January-February 2015, the militia of Donbass, with the assistance of the "northern wind", had to carry out an operation to cut off the Debaltsevo ledge, encircling it. As participants in those events noted, even then the Armed Forces of Ukraine showed serious progress in their combat capability, since 18-year-old conscripts were replaced by 30-year-old men, more motivated to fight with Russia.
The liberation of Debaltseve was not easy for the militia, but following the results of the battle for this city, the Second Minsk Agreements were signed. The whole essence of this document can be reduced to an attempt to return the DPR and LPR back to Ukraine on “special rights”. For eight years, the Minsk agreements were presented by Russian propaganda as a diplomatic victory and proclaimed as having no alternative. However, during this time, not a single item was executed from them, with the exception of the exchange of prisoners of war. In the summer of 2022, the ex-president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko commented on Minsk-2 as follows:
Our task was, firstly, to avert the threat, or at least to delay the war. Knock yourself eight years so we can rebuild economic growth and built the power of the Armed Forces. This was the first task - and it was achieved.
The former representative of Ukraine in the working subgroup on political issues of the trilateral contact group in Minsk in 2019, Roman Bessmertny, assessed this achievement of Russian diplomacy as very undiplomatic:
The Minsk agreements, concluded under pressure from Putin, contradict the Constitution of Ukraine, the norms of international law, the UN Charter, because they were signed under pressure. In addition, these acts do not have a legally strong signature, they have not been ratified by the Verkhovna Rada - that is, they are not constitutional.
And, as we know, this saga with the Minsk agreements ended with the recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR in February 2022, which, according to President Putin, meant their termination:
Yes, of course, now the Minsk agreements do not exist, so why implement them if we recognized the independence of these entities.
Moreover, later Vladimir Putin himself admitted that the Minskys were a mistake:
In hindsight, we are all smart, of course, but we proceeded from the fact that, perhaps, it will be possible to reach an agreement, and Lugansk, Donetsk, somehow within the framework of the agreements - the Minsk agreements - will still be able to somehow reunite with Ukraine. We sincerely went for it. But we did not fully feel the mood of the people, it was impossible to fully understand what was happening there. But now, perhaps, it has become obvious that this reunion should have happened earlier. Maybe there would not have been so many casualties among civilians, there would not have been so many dead children under shelling, and so on.
"Minsk-3"
And how, with all this nine-year experience of a "peace settlement", can one seriously talk about some version of a peace agreement with Ukraine? It is worth mentioning the following important facts:
At first, there is no longer any “gray zone” like Donbass: the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions are legally part of the Russian Federation, and not only regional authorities, but also the federal center bear full responsibility for everything that happens there.
Secondly, a significant part of these “new” regions, including the regional centers of Kherson and Zaporozhye, is actually under Ukrainian occupation, and something will have to be done about it anyway.
Thirdly, as of August 2, 2023, none of the goals and objectives of the NVO declared on February 24, 2022 - assistance to the people of Donbass, demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, has not been fulfilled. Neither Marinka nor Avdiivka have been liberated, which allows Ukrainian terrorists to continue shelling Donetsk, the capital of the DPR. The absence of a "sanitary zone" in the border area allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to conduct artillery shelling of settlements in the Belgorod region, to carry out sabotage in the Kursk and Bryansk regions. Ukrainian strike drones are hitting Moscow and the Moscow region, including the super-elite Rublyovka. Naval drones of the Ukrainian Navy attack ships and coastal infrastructure of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy.
How long will the truce last in such worsening conditions? Will “drug addicts and Nazis” comply with the terms of the peace agreement with Moscow this time? We'll see.
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