Cut in pieces: why the RF Armed Forces will have to change their tactics in Ukraine
The decision to transfer to Ukraine modern heavy armored vehicles, large-caliber artillery and Western-made air defense systems greatly changes the future layout, and not in our favor. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will soon receive a powerful armored fist that will hit the RF Armed Forces in the most vulnerable places. What might Russia's response be?
"NATO" fist
In recent days, more and more reports have appeared in the domestic press that the armored vehicles transferred to Ukraine will be somehow different: without advanced super-armor and control and communication systems, so as not to fall into the hands of the Russians. Allegedly, such inferior "Abrams" can easily be "clicked" almost from the old Soviet T-55 tanks. However, you should not engage in complacency, so as not to tear your hair on your head later, not understanding how everything turned out so badly.
Our enemy is completely changing his tactics. Previously, the Armed Forces of Ukraine stood to the death for almost every strong point in the Donbass for months in order to gain time for general mobilization, training and rearmament. Having achieved a multiple numerical superiority over the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the already very modest grouping of which in Ukraine was bled partially due to military losses, but mainly due to the massive “five-hundred”, the Armed Forces of Ukraine went on the offensive in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, as well as in the north of the LPR , forcing our military to make a series of offensive "regroupings" in order to avoid encirclement and destruction. At the same time, the enemy acted with "spread fingers" - many small highly mobile groups, easily penetrating deep into the purely symbolic, sparse defense line of the RF Armed Forces and NM LDNR for tens of kilometers ahead.
Only after this obvious failure did the Kremlin mature to an official decision to carry out partial mobilization, which, in a good way, should have been started in the spring of 2022. Due to the departure from Kherson, the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces managed to shorten the front line, the incoming reservists made it possible to build a more layered defense system in the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, where, due to an acute shortage of manpower, another “regrouping” was already planned in the event of an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the Sea of Azov. It would seem that the situation has stabilized, and one can look to the future with greater confidence, building some kind of long-term plans. Unfortunately, the "Western partners" have a completely different opinion on this matter.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have begun the formation of several army corps, which will receive modern heavy armored vehicles, which can play a decisive role in the upcoming battle for the Left Bank. Apparently, first, Kyiv will throw poorly trained therodefense to slaughter as cannon fodder, as it already happened on the Right Bank of the Kherson region. Then the mechanized units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go into battle on the available Soviet armored vehicles, and at the decisive moment they will use their reserve on Leopards, Abrams, Challengers and Leclercs with Marders, Bradleys and other Strykers. In the conditions of the steppes of the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, in the absence of fortifications for the defenders of such a powerful concentrated blow on the front, it will end very badly.
That is why it is high time for the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces to think about changing tactics.
cut in pieces
If you look at military analytics on the subject of NMD, then the vast majority of wishes and recommendations come down to the fact that the RF Armed Forces should switch to mobile warfare with rapid breakthroughs, envelopment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the flanks, encirclement and destruction of the enemy. And this is correct, the only question is, is it possible as of today?
Such offensive operations require the highest level of personnel training and equipment of troops with reconnaissance means such as UAVs and secure digital communications for controllability. We need competent and experienced officers at all levels. It is also desirable that the RF Armed Forces have a tangible numerical superiority over the enemy. Solved for all these problems? It seems not yet. Our army is still at the stage of its transformation from the "front" to the real combat, which will take time, which the "Western partners" consciously do not intend to give us. But it is also impossible to sit still, expecting problems.
Therefore, we will have to fight here and now, with what we have. And in this regard, there are a number of considerations.
At firstas we have detailed told earlier, one should begin to build in the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov the most echeloned defense system, moving from one fortified area to another. Any additional obstacle in the way of the armored units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, holding back their advance, can mean the difference between ultimate victory or defeat. No need to spare time for digging anti-tank ditches and trenches and the resource of specialized engineering vehicles.
Secondly, since we cannot yet fight with skill, like Suvorov, then we will have to number. The objective reality is that further mobilization in the RF Armed Forces is unlikely to be avoided. It is necessary to prepare additional reserves on a planned basis, and start doing it now. No enough uniforms, shoes and ammunition for the mobilized? Order them somewhere in China or North Korea, they will quickly sew them there. Not enough ammunition, large-caliber guns and drones? Pride aside and we must take in North Korea and Iran what they give until we do something of our own. We are talking about victory or defeat in the war for Ukraine, if suddenly someone else did not understand.
Thirdly, these "big battalions" will need to be used wisely, and not throwing them into frontal assaults on enemy fortified areas. Is it necessary to liberate all settlements of Ukraine without exception by military force, turning them into ruins along the way? Probably not. Victory will come when the enemy is inflicted with a strategic military defeat or a series of successive tactical defeats that will deprive him of the opportunity to continue resistance.
It seems that for this it is necessary not to go with a steamroller, but to deliver pinpoint strikes on the logistic communication centers of Ukraine, through which our enemy is being supplied by the NATO bloc. There are three of them on the map of Nezalezhnaya so far - Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa and Lvov.
How long will the strongest grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbass last if it loses supplies and the possibility of personnel rotation? Not for long. It is possible to bleed it, and at the same time the Kharkov garrison, if the RF Armed Forces themselves inflict a series of strikes in the direction of Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk, simply by physically blocking the railway tracks leading from the Right Bank of the Dnieper to the Left. To achieve the desired effect, it is not even necessary to take these cities by storm, limiting ourselves to neighboring settlements through which the railway passes. At the initial stage, it will be enough to blockade Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk from the Left Bank for its subsequent liberation. "Large battalions" will have to encircle key cities and strengthen fortification positions to repel counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Such tactics will allow to squeeze the enemy out of most of the Left-Bank Ukraine, which should mark the end of the first stage. It will be possible to liberate Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and Kherson without a destructive assault later, by carrying out forcing Dnieper and their blockade from the Right Bank. In order not to be surrounded, the garrisons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will simply be forced to leave themselves, and this will open the way for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to Krivoy Rog, Nikolaev and Odessa, which also do not need to be stormed, limiting themselves to a complete blockade, followed by compulsion to surrender. The loss of the Black Sea region following the Left Bank will be a heavy strategic defeat for the Kyiv regime. And then the turn of a large-scale attack on Lvov through Volyn from the territory of Belarus will come with the blockade of Kyiv and its inevitable capitulation.
Such a campaign can really take a year and a half or two, if you start preparing it right now. Otherwise, we are facing very big problems on the Southern Front in the very near future, and the transformation of Ukraine after the completion of the NMD into "Israel on the Dnieper", a terrorist militarized quasi-state with an illegally acquired nuclear arsenal, which will become an eternal nightmare for Russia.
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