The battle for the initiative: the fate of the Left Bank is being decided in the Zaporozhye direction


Today, the main focus is on the Donbass, where Russian troops and the Wagner PMC are stubbornly and consistently gnaw through the enemy’s defenses, moving forward step by step. However, in the past few days, positive news began to come from the Zaporozhye direction, where the front finally set in motion and the RF Armed Forces switched from defense to offensive. It is here that a general battle can take place, which will determine the future of the Left-Bank Ukraine.


Battle for initiative


Yes, contrary to the forecasts of some experts and analysts, the RF Armed Forces nevertheless decided to be the first to go on the offensive in the Zaporozhye direction, as Vladimir Rogov, a member of the main council of the regional administration, said:

Our army continues reconnaissance in force in the Zaporozhye region. The positions of Ukrainian troops on the first, as well as partially on the second and third lines of defense, have already been opened.

Our troops have entered the so-called gray zone and are slowly moving forward on a wide front, clearly fearing rapid forced marches because of the threat of falling under a counterattack and finding themselves in a "cauldron". This is evidence that the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces soberly assesses the capabilities of the enemy and their own. Why, then, did the new commander of the Northern Military District, Gerasimov, decide to launch an offensive?

The reason is simple: if the RF Armed Forces had not gone on the offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine would have done it.

After the abandonment of Kherson and the entire Right Bank of Ukraine by Russian troops, the situation for us on the Southern Front deteriorated sharply. In order to pose a threat to the Crimea, it would be enough for Zaluzhny’s General Staff to carry out several powerful swift strikes against Berdyansk and Melitopol with access to the coast of the Sea of ​​​​Azov, cutting off the land corridor to the peninsula. In the event of the destruction of the Crimean bridge, the peninsula would de facto turn into an “island” that could be shot through by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, an auxiliary strike could be delivered by the enemy from the right bank of the Dnieper, where he concentrated powerful armored reserves in Krivoy Rog and Dnepropetrovsk. Having captured the foothold on the left bank, the Armed Forces of Ukraine could force a very shallow river and enter the Kherson region. After that, the question would arise of Russia's further ability to defend the peninsula and protect its inhabitants from terrorist attacks by Ukrainian artillerymen.

At the same time, the "Western partners" directly showed that this is exactly the result they expect from the Kyiv regime. As part of the latest package of military assistance, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were to receive a huge amount of various armored vehicles, artillery and air defense, which would ensure their breakthrough to the Crimea. Michael McCall, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of the US House of Representatives, announced the need to transfer long-range missiles to Kyiv:

They need long-range ATACMS to strike at Crimea.

Oil painting. The strategy of sitting on the defensive expectedly failed. Waiting for the enemy to strengthen even more and strike in the Zaporozhye direction means to beg for gigantic problems for ourselves. as we and supposed, the activation of military support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the NATO bloc simply forced the Russian General Staff to start a battle for the initiative. The RF Armed Forces, although not in their best form, were the first to go on the offensive in the Zaporozhye direction. And this is the right, albeit forced decision!

mobile war


Yes, the mobile war in Left-Bank Ukraine, about which we reasoned before, has already started. The positional nature of hostilities will be predominantly in the Donbas due to the peculiarities of its landscape, historical development and development, as well as almost eight years donated to the enemy for fortification work. On the Southern Front, a wide steppe stretches in front of the RF Armed Forces, where it will be possible to go as far as the Armed Forces of Ukraine will allow. What could be the tasks assigned by the commander of the NWO Gerasimov to our troops?

The minimum program for today is to push the enemy as far north as possible, freeing the cities and towns of the Zaporozhye region and creating new lines of defense. The goal is clearly to exclude in the future a possible rapid breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the Sea of ​​Azov. At the same time, the Russian General Staff forced Zaluzhny to withdraw from Krivoy Rog and Dnepropetrovsk, transferring to the Zaporozhye direction, those reserves that could be used for an auxiliary attack on the Kherson region. The work of the RF Armed Forces as the first number, forcing the enemy to react, seems to be a very, very reasonable tactic.

The maximum program at this stage looks even more ambitious, if, of course, it can be realized. Like us celebrated Previously, the transfer of long-range weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine requires Russian troops to launch a large-scale offensive to the Dnieper, pushing the enemy across the river as a natural barrier in order to eliminate the risks of powerful rapid breakthroughs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. You can go to the Dnieper, slowly gnawing through the layered defense in the Donbass, but there are simpler ways.

Advancing from south to north, the RF Armed Forces are now approaching our new regional center - Zaporozhye. Part of the city is located on the left bank of the Dnieper, part - on the right. Our troops can approach Zaporozhye within a shot and simply block it without an assault, cutting off the railway lines of communication, which are used, among other things, to supply the Donbas grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But there is no point in stopping there. If the RF Armed Forces can move further north, to Dnepropetrovsk, then this will radically change the entire balance of power on the Left Bank.

At this stage, it will be enough to block Dnepropetrovsk, which is the main logistics center through which the Armed Forces are supplied. Having cut the railway lines, the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces will leave the group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on a starvation ration not only in the Donbass, but also in Pavlograd and Kharkov. Our troops will find themselves in the rear of the enemy, who will be forced to either accept a general battle in the steppes, or roll back to the northwest, to Poltava and Chernigov.

In other words, if the offensive in the Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk direction is successful, the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces has a chance to liberate most of the Left-Bank Ukraine. The only question is how ready our troops are now for active operations in the operational space. Perhaps it is here that the recently formed 3rd Army Corps, formed from volunteers, with its most modern armored vehicles and large-caliber artillery, on which such hopes were previously placed, will play its role.
22 comments
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  1. Vladimir80 Offline Vladimir80
    Vladimir80 24 January 2023 13: 45
    -9
    a chance to liberate most of Left-bank Ukraine

    free the left-bank outskirts from whom? here in the next article they discuss that Crimea is without ya.o. do not hold!
    ps God forbid, liberate the DPR - and if possible, then go on the defensive, build fortified areas, relocate residents away from the border ... and climb into the outskirts of Bandera cities and villages - there is nothing to do there! let Europe feed them, restore them, take them in!
    1. The comment was deleted.
  2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 24 January 2023 14: 01
    +4
    the front finally set in motion and the RF Armed Forces switched from defense to offensive.

    Our troops entered the so-called gray zone

    Our General Staff is in their repertoire, they are going to storm every settlement head-on. And there are hundreds of these settlements, every 2-3 km. What Zaporozhye, what Dnepropetrovsk! We will get to them by such methods for "a hundred years". It's time to stop feeding on illusions about our power. There are only mediocrity, who can only trade "Motherland". We must demand the resignation of these mediocrity, or at least demand an answer to direct questions. It's time to stop justifying the mediocrity of our government!
    1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 24 January 2023 19: 40
      +4
      This is just one of the options, albeit a tempting one. The question is speed and onslaught, wherever the offensive is carried out. As for mediocrity, I don’t think that they are more mediocre than us couch experts whose imagination is limitless.
    2. Dart2027 Offline Dart2027
      Dart2027 25 January 2023 08: 34
      0
      Quote: steel maker
      Our General Staff is in their repertoire, they are going to storm every settlement head-on. And there are hundreds of these settlements, every 2-3 km.

      Have you tried reading yourself? They are there every 2-3 km - well, how to bypass them all? Wherever you poke, you still have to hit him in the forehead.
      1. Daniel K Offline Daniel K
        Daniel K (Daniil Koshevoy) 25 January 2023 22: 22
        +1
        Khokhols on the offensive a few months ago on armored vehicles captured 60 km a day
    3. Pavel N Offline Pavel N
      Pavel N (Paul) 25 January 2023 17: 17
      0
      A provocateur (nicknamed a steelmaker) is in his repertoire!
    4. Svetlana Mironova (Svetlana Mironova) 25 January 2023 20: 34
      +2
      Resignations were necessary, starting with Shoigu, since May, M-tsa, and this is only along the military line ...
    5. Dust Offline Dust
      Dust (Sergei) 26 January 2023 12: 16
      +1
      There are practically no settlements there. Some arable fields. What is in Kherson, what is in Zaporozhye regions. It is a steppe and steppe in Africa.
  3. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 24 January 2023 20: 05
    +1
    The author is right as ever. the Americans are increasing pressure from all sides, raising the stakes, dogs, we urgently need to do something, otherwise it’s not far from the destroyed Rzeszow, which I have been talking about for a long time. I think that this moment is getting closer, the staff will not let them deal with OCG 95 with little blood ((
  4. Vadim Sharygin Offline Vadim Sharygin
    Vadim Sharygin (Citizen) 25 January 2023 03: 43
    +4
    The activity of Russian troops in this direction is both a necessary measure and a useful one. We need a threefold superiority in forces and means in the direction of the main attack. If we start the second wave of mobilization now, then by the summer we can forget about any attempts to shell or attack the Crimea. It will be far for all types of their missiles. We need carpet bombing of ukrov positions. We need "mother-bombs", reactivation of all types of weapons and equipment, we need to create a new Ukrainian government and army - as opposed to the Ukrohunte. We need initiative, military operations to anticipate and preempt the actions of the Armed Forces.
    1. Daniel K Offline Daniel K
      Daniel K (Daniil Koshevoy) 25 January 2023 22: 24
      +1
      Everything that was already canned
  5. Kuramori Reika Offline Kuramori Reika
    Kuramori Reika (Kuramori Reika) 25 January 2023 04: 53
    +2
    Perhaps they went on the offensive there only because this sector of the front was best reconnoitered.
  6. Muscool Offline Muscool
    Muscool (Glory) 25 January 2023 08: 25
    +2
    And where does the information come from that this is an offensive, and an improvement in positions, for example? For some reason, I am sure that after the occupation of several villages, everything will calm down.
  7. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 25 January 2023 09: 36
    +2
    in Krivoy Rog and Dnepropetrovsk, he concentrated powerful armored reserves ... I don’t understand the couple. We seem to have destroyed under 3000 Ukrainian tanks ....
    1. Vladimir80 Offline Vladimir80
      Vladimir80 25 January 2023 16: 13
      +1
      we seem to have destroyed under 3000 Ukrainian tanks

      it was General K. who said that they destroyed it, as in reality - no one knows, but most likely not as "rosy" as they talk on TV
    2. Daniel K Offline Daniel K
      Daniel K (Daniil Koshevoy) 25 January 2023 22: 25
      +1
      Oh, you listen to our storytellers...
  8. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 25 January 2023 09: 38
    +1
    No one thought that it was necessary to cut off Galicia from the rest of Ukraine and then finish off the encircled part? And put artillery with tactical nuclear weapons in the direction of Galicia ....
  9. Prokop Pork Offline Prokop Pork
    Prokop Pork (Prokop) 25 January 2023 15: 13
    +3
    Compare: "... the risks of powerful rapid breakthroughs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." And "... You can go to the Dnieper, slowly gnawing through the echeloned defense ..."
    It turns out that ukrov's operations management is qualitatively at a different level.
  10. Viktor-Podolsk Offline Viktor-Podolsk
    Viktor-Podolsk (Viktor) 25 January 2023 17: 58
    0
    Everyone imagines himself a strategist, seeing the battle from the side. Shota Rustaveli.
  11. Panasyuk-Pupkin Offline Panasyuk-Pupkin
    Panasyuk-Pupkin (Panasyuk-Pupkin) 26 January 2023 21: 21
    0
    Quote: Dart2027
    Quote: steel maker
    Our General Staff is in their repertoire, they are going to storm every settlement head-on. And there are hundreds of these settlements, every 2-3 km.

    Have you tried reading yourself? They are there every 2-3 km - well, how to bypass them all? Wherever you poke, you still have to hit him in the forehead.

    Have you tried to make wider coverage and beat where they don’t wait?
  12. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 27 January 2023 20: 48
    +1
    Before fighting, advancing, it is necessary to give legal support to these military operations. Why did the deputies of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, senators, the President of the Russian Federation not issue a Law that would state that the entire territory of Ukraine is an integral part of Russia??? With such a law, the war in Ukraine would have ended by summer and all of Ukraine would have become Russia. Maybe someone knows why there is no such Law?
  13. Flight Offline Flight
    Flight (voi) Yesterday, 04: 06
    0
    At the present time, what is ours, what is not ours can move and move as they please. The lines are already outlined, and within them you can jerk or not jerk, depict actions or not depict. Then Prigogine and the rifleman "grumbled". Those who are already there. And here we can only fantasize.