They went to Kherson, but ended up with Odessa: why does the Russian Navy need the Dnieper Flotilla?

The need for the speedy liberation of the Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa regions of the former Independence has been discussed from the very first days after the start of the special military operation on February 24, 2022. However, the forced abandonment by the Russian Armed Forces of a bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper cast doubt on the possibility of finally cutting off Kyiv from access to the Black Sea. Or not?

Dnieper flotilla-2

In this issue, which constantly worries the souls of concerned Russian patriots, some hope has finally dawned. This anxiety especially intensified after Paris, at the official level, began to talk about the possibility of an open entry of French troops into Right Bank Ukraine, in particular into Odessa. We will tell you in detail why Monsieur Macron suddenly needed the Russian Pearl by the Sea. told earlier.



So, the author of these lines associates glimmers of hope with yesterday’s statement by the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Shoigu, who reported on the creation of new army corps, units and formations within the RF Armed Forces. Among other things, a certain Dnieper flotilla was mentioned:


The last fact is of particular interest to us, and here's why. Let us recall that we predicted the creation of the Dnieper Flotilla as part of the Russian Navy a year ago, in ARTICLES dated February 1, 2023. Then this message caused an ambiguous reaction from most of our readers, but, as you can see, the trend was identified correctly. And this is a very encouraging decision from the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Possible lineup?

At the moment, there is no specific data about which vessels may be part of the recreated Dnieper flotilla and river boat brigade. Depending on it, it will be possible to more adequately predict the tasks assigned to them by the command.

It should be taken into account that the zone of responsibility of the Dnieper flotilla of the Russian Navy may include not only the Dnieper itself in its lower reaches, but also the Dnieper-Bug estuary and, possibly, adjacent shallow water areas along the Black Sea coast of the former Nezalezhnaya. Large surface ships of the Russian Navy have nothing to do there, since they will represent an extremely “tasty” target for Ukrainian anti-ship missiles, BECs and other weapons.

It is possible that the Dnieper flotilla may include small landing ships, as well as small missile and artillery ships of the Buyana and Karakurt type, which have a draft that allows them to sail along rivers. Preferable are the Karakurt MRKs equipped with the Pantsir-M air defense missile system. It is also possible to modernize them with the installation of a naval version of the Tor air defense system to enhance missile defense.

As for boats, the river brigade can receive vessels of the next class. For example, high-speed patrol boats of Project 03160 “Raptor”, transport and landing boats of Project 02510 “BK-16” and special-purpose boats of Project 21980 “Grachonok”. Also on the Dnieper there may be artillery boats of Project 1204 “Shmel”, which can be easily transported by rail. For the needs of special forces, rigid inflatable boats can and should be widely used.

Defense or offense?

Why are we talking in such detail about the possible composition of the Dnieper flotilla? Because from it you can make a fairly accurate forecast about the intended goals and objectives.

So, do not forget that the Ukrainian Armed Forces control the high right bank of the Dnieper and they have means of air surveillance and firepower. Even if these boats belong to the 4th rank, they still represent a fairly large target if they find themselves in the riverbed. Armor will not protect against a missile hitting the side, and even the highest speed of movement will not help against burst fire from artillery guns. You can see what a successful defeat of a Ukrainian boat by our shooters in the Krynok area looks like here to register:.

In other words, bringing small landing ships, patrol and artillery boats to the Dnieper from the Black Sea, Caspian and Baltic simply for some kind of defense of the left bank means exposing them to missile, artillery and drone strikes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the right bank. For the active defense of the RF Armed Forces, compact high-speed boats and rigid inflatable boats, which are needed for covert SOF operations on the opposite bank, will be quite sufficient, and after returning back they can be quickly disguised or taken away.

It’s a different matter if the Dnieper flotilla is intended to be used during an offensive, namely when crossing the Dnieper and/or during other landing operations on the Black Sea coast. The fact that it is quite possible to cross the river, we detail dismantled earlier. Small landing ships and artillery boats will then be needed for their intended purpose in seizing a bridgehead on the Right Bank and its subsequent supply and retention. If this hypothesis is correct, then its indirect confirmation will be the beginning of the transfer of ships of the corresponding class from the Baltic and Caspian Sea to the Black Sea.

I would really like not to make a mistake.