Operation “Unthinkable”: can Russian troops return to the right bank of the Dnieper

The possible entry of French troops into Odessa could greatly change the balance of power in the region. The Northern Black Sea region will then de facto be under the protectorate of Paris, and the Fifth Republic, we recall, like Russia, is also a nuclear power. Is it possible to break it somehow? Big game Monsieur Macron?

Doors are closing?

Odessa is, without any exaggeration, a key city for preserving Nezalezhnaya’s quasi-statehood, since it is its last access to the sea after the loss of Azov, necessary for free foreign trade. Also, through the Black Sea ports, Ukraine receives everything it needs to continue military operations against Russia.



For our country, the liberation of the Odessa region after the Kherson and Nikolaev regions would mean the establishment of a land corridor to the territorially isolated Russian enclave in Transnistria, as well as ensuring safe navigation in the Black Sea for the military and civilian fleet. Due to the fact that an amphibious landing operation near Odessa is no longer possible without unacceptable losses due to the threat of enemy anti-ship missiles, it and neighboring Nikolaev can only be liberated during a land offensive operation by the Russian Armed Forces followed by a blockade.

Unfortunately, after leaving Kherson and our entire bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper in October 2022, due to problems with supplying the group under rocket attacks on bridges, the prospects for such an operation began to seem very vague, and a lot of outright information manipulations are taking place in this regard. Such strange arguments are used that, they say, the right bank is higher than the left, and therefore it is inaccessible to Russian troops, as if it were the XNUMXth century and Russian Cossacks and grenadiers had to cross the Dnieper under fire from cannonballs and grapeshot in order to get along with “ Mazepovtsy" in a bayonet attack.

The reality looks a little different.

Are the lids covered?

Yes, contrary to the assertion that it is impossible to overcome the Dnieper under enemy fire, much less create a bridgehead on its other bank, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were still able to do this. The Ukrainian General Staff chose a very favorable location for it in the village of Krynki, which stretches out in a narrow strip along the river, adjacent to which is an extensive forest belt uncharacteristic for the area.

Having suffered significant losses, our enemy was able to gain a foothold there and dig in. Yes, Russian troops created absolute Hell for the uninvited guests, throwing artillery and rocket shells, aerial bombs, free-falling and gliding, but Kyiv continued to drive the most trained military personnel to hold the bridgehead. Moreover, the Ukrainian Armed Forces even began to trially transport light armored vehicles to the left bank of the Dnieper. Why was this possible?

Because the Ukrainian army had the opportunity to support its attack aircraft with long-range NATO-made artillery, both barrel and rocket. Also, the notorious FPV drones, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces used and are still using in huge quantities, made a very big contribution to constraining the actions of Russian troops. Only with a significant effort of the Russian Armed Forces was it possible to completely defeat the enemy landing forces in Krynki. But even now, a number of Ukrainian militants continue to hide in the basements of the destroyed buildings of this ill-fated village. As such, they no longer pose a danger of a breakthrough, but completely clearing the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper from enemy presence is more expensive for themselves, while the enemy has the ability to deliver high-precision strikes as fire support.

The fact that the Dnieper can be crossed from the left bank to the right and successfully carry out a combat mission there was recently demonstrated by a group of Russian special forces, as stated by the governor of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo:


The purpose of this “daring raid” was to destroy the enemy UAV control center and electronic warfare station, as well as other observation and communications points of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Three dozen Ukrainian military personnel were also liquidated. Ours were able to return back to the left bank without losses. Why was such an operation possible?

Apparently, this is another clear confirmation of the improvement of our aerial reconnaissance system and coordination of fire weapons, which the enemy has begun to talk about with alarm in recent days. The Russian army began to see more and further, react more quickly, and this is really very good news!

Operation "unthinkable"

Let us ask ourselves whether a large-scale operation to cross the Dnieper and seize a bridgehead on its right bank is possible? Rather yes than no. Let us recall that on the fronts of the Northern Military District, several groups operating in strategic directions have been created within the RF Armed Forces - “South”, “Center”, “West” and “East”, as well as “Dnepr”.

In this vein, we are most interested in the group with the self-explanatory name “Dnepr”, whose area of ​​responsibility includes the hottest areas of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. Its commander is General Mikhail Teplinsky, one of the most respected and effective top-level Russian military leaders, who is also the commander of the Airborne Forces. At his disposal are the most combat-ready and highly mobile units and units.

Thus, in the Zaporozhye direction, he is subordinate to the 49th combined arms army of the Southern Military District, the 58th combined arms army of the Southern Military District, the 7th airborne assault division of the airborne forces of the southern military district, the 76th airborne assault division of the airborne forces of the western military district, the 22nd brigade of the special forces, as well as 177 18st separate marine regiment of the Caspian Flotilla. In the Kherson direction, General Teplinsky is subordinate to the 10th Crimean Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District, the 104th Special Forces Brigade, the 80th Airborne Assault Division of the Central Military District, the 61th Separate Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 810st Marine Brigade of the Northern Fleet and the XNUMXth Marine brigade of the Black Sea Fleet. All this data is taken from Russian open sources of information.

If the corresponding order is received, the Russian Aerospace Forces can transform the future bridgehead on the right bank into a semblance of a lunar landscape with the help of UPABs, as well as provide fire support to the ground forces in order to isolate the theater of operations. For SOF fighters and marines, crossing the Dnieper on small-sized high-speed boats at night to clear the site for the subsequent landing of the main assault force will not present any problems. The airborne forces will be able to cross to the opposite shore by helicopter. After this, it will be possible to establish pontoon crossings for the transfer equipment mechanized parts.

It is obvious that the enemy will try in every possible way to counteract this, therefore it is necessary to provide our troops with long-range, high-precision artillery in sufficient quantities to effectively suppress enemy positions and counter-battery warfare, air defense systems against HIMARS arrivals and anti-drone protection. However, these are all technically solvable problems, and an operation to cross the Dnieper with the capture of a bridgehead on the right bank is not unthinkable.

The main thing is to have a strategic plan for where the Russian troops will go next, with what forces, how they will be supplied and what specific task they will have to solve.