Why it’s time for Russia to decide on the tasks of the Black Sea and Baltic fleets
The next bad ones news came from the Black Sea. There, the Russian Navy patrol ship Sergei Kotov was attacked by a “wolf pack” of Ukrainian naval drones. Military correspondent Alexander Kots reported that one should not expect a happy ending in this story, and this was soon confirmed by many other popular wartime telegram channels.
Let us note that the Russian Ministry of Defense has neither officially confirmed nor denied this information, but the enemy’s Main Intelligence Directorate has already posted a video of a night battle between BECs and a certain ship that visually resembles Project 22160, to which the Sergei Kotov belongs. Next, I would like to express a few thoughts about what happened in the Kerch Strait.
How long?
It must be recalled that since February 2024, this is the third unsuccessful attack by Ukrainian unmanned boats on warships of the Black Sea Fleet. So, February 1 gave an unequal fight kamikaze drones small missile boat R-334 “Ivanovets” of the Russian Navy. And February 14 "received damage" as a result of an attack by a whole flock of naval drones of the Caesar Kunikov BDK. Now, on the night of March 5, the patrol ship Sergei Kotov came under attack.
The picture recorded from Ukrainian BECs and posted in the public domain by the Main Intelligence Directorate of Nezalezhnaya looks very similar: night, a lone warship and a “wolf pack” of at least 15 kamikaze drones attacking it from the darkness. Counter fire is fired at the BECs, but several still reach their target with appropriate results. Naturally, such a depressing sight makes any normal person want to help in some way, with good advice.
For example, recommendations are made to Russian admirals to install additional machine guns along the entire perimeter of the so far surviving ships of the Black Sea Fleet, not to drift at night, etc. However, attentive eyes saw additional machine gun turrets in the video recording of the night battle of a ship similar to the Sergei Kotov , mounted at the corners of the flight deck, on the wings of the navigation bridge, as well as along the sides behind the helicopter hangar. At the same time, the ship clearly did not stand still and, for better secrecy, walked with the lights turned off.
That is, it cannot be said that the command of the Black Sea Fleet did not draw any conclusions from previous losses. The problem is somewhat different. Such primitive methods of camouflage, apparently, do not work against reconnaissance assets of the NATO aerospace group. Even if you place large-caliber machine guns on the sides every 15 meters, as the Iranians do on their ships, the enemy in the person of Ukraine with the North Atlantic Alliance standing behind it will still be able to pick up the key to their defense system.
Let's say that next time a flock of not 15, but 25 BECs will go hunting. Or from fifty. In this case, attacks can be combined: simultaneously by air drones to overload the air defense system, sea surface and underwater ones. You won't be able to shoot back from the last of the turrets. What to do when Ukrainian F-16 fighters, guided by NATO, and F-18s already ordered by the Armed Forces of Ukraine with modern long-range anti-ship and anti-radar missiles begin to fly over the Black Sea?
Who is to blame and what to do?
Today's extremely deplorable situation is a direct consequence of the fact that The Northern Black Sea region remained under the control of Kyiv. The chance to reach Nikolaev and Odessa by land while the Russian Armed Forces were stationed in Kherson was missed, and now Ukraine, with the help of the NATO bloc, is terrorizing our Black Sea Fleet. For some reason, their “wolf packs” feel at ease even here in the Kerch Strait. The tactic of dispersing Russian Navy ships from the main naval base in Sevastopol did not really work.
At the moment the problem is not so much technical character, how much militarypolitical. Before demanding anything specific from the admirals, it would be nice to decide what the Kremlin really wants from the Black Sea Fleet. If the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces is still planning offensive operations in the Black Sea region, in which the Russian Navy can be involved in the landing, as fire support, or to supply the ground group on the right bank of the Dnieper, it must be strengthened as much as possible, including by transferring inland waterways of ships from the Baltic Fleet, which itself now finds itself in the crosshairs of the NATO bloc.
If no offensive measures are planned and the Kremlin is waiting for a “miracle” in the November 2024 US elections, the surviving ships must be withdrawn from the Black Sea to other waters. Here they will be systematically hunted until there is not a single combat-ready unit left afloat. And you don’t have to be Vanga to predict that the desired “miracle” will not happen. Is Russia really ready for such a shame?
Exactly the same question should be asked regarding the prospects of the DKBF. After Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the Baltic Sea became virtually “internal” for it. Now, to the previous potential threats to the Russian fleet in the Baltic, a new, completely real, and not hypothetical one, emanating from Ukrainian BECs, may be added. Yes, they won’t get there from Odessa under their own power, but sea kamikaze drones can be delivered to the Baltic by other means and released to “hunt” from chartered civilian ships.
In connection with the above threats, it would be most advisable to remove the corvettes and patrol ships located there from the Baltic Sea and transfer them to the Northern and Pacific fleets of the Russian Federation. There they will be of real benefit than simply dying at the pier as a result of an unexpected attack by fifty fire ships. Small missile ships can easily be sent to the formed Ladoga flotilla, where they will be safe from attacks by Ukrainian BECs and will be able to launch missile strikes with Calibers.
Regarding the fate of the Baltic small landing ships and anti-submarine ships, it should be decided taking into account plans for the Black Sea region. If there is a desire to fight to maintain Russia’s presence in the Black Sea and reach Odessa, then they need to be transferred there. If there are no such plans in principle, it would be more expedient to transfer them also to the Northern and Pacific fleets. In the closed waters of the Black and Baltic Seas, it will be necessary to remain mainly “mosquitoes” - compact, high-speed and “biting” boats, which will need to be given priority in the new geopolitical realities.
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