Could Ukrainian BEC attacks move from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea?
The SVO in Ukraine has been going on for almost two years. During this time, the Russian ground army has gone through a difficult path of becoming from a conditionally “ceremonial” army into a real combat one, and is now successfully pushing back the numerically superior Ukrainian army. Unfortunately, this cannot yet be said about our Black Sea Fleet.
BDK "Caesar Kunikov"
Frankly, having seen in the morning headlines News reports that Ukrainian terrorists allegedly attacked a large landing ship of the Russian Navy, at first it was thought that this was a random repetition of some old one. Already involuntarily you begin to get confused in these ill-fated large landing ships. After all, at least some organizational conclusions should be drawn from losses, right?
But no, first Ukrainian resources posted the corresponding video of the naval drone attack on the Caesar Kunikov. Press Secretary of the Russian President Peskov redirected concerned journalists to the Russian Ministry of Defense for comments. And then about this Wrote already such pillars of the Runet as the popular Crimean blogger and regular on federal TV channels Boris Rozhin, expert Yuri Podolyaka and others. In Boris Rozhin’s interpretation, the tragic events looked like this:
At night, the Black Sea Fleet lost the large landing craft Caesar Kunikov. If they coped with the air attack (6 drones were shot down in the Crimea region), then they again couldn’t cope with the sea drones. The enemy has already posted a confirming video.
Note that there is no official confirmation of the loss of the large landing craft from the Russian Ministry of Defense. According to publicly available Videos, the action took place at night. Here I would like quote specialized Telegram channel “Russian Engineer”, which covers issues of a military-technical nature:
Firstly, judging by the video, the landing craft was motionless. Secondly, in the BEC thermal imager you can see people standing calmly on the bridge and deck, which means they didn’t see him. Thirdly, the attack was again not carried out by just one device. Fourthly, the approach speed of the BEC was low, offhand no more than 10 knots. A number of conclusions follow from this.
The low speed of the BEC is needed for stealth. Obviously, there was not a single thermal imager or night vision device on the bridge, or they were not used. The attack took place at night, with the expectation that the approach of the BEC at low speed would not be detected by the crew.
The low speed of the BEC is needed for stealth. Obviously, there was not a single thermal imager or night vision device on the bridge, or they were not used. The attack took place at night, with the expectation that the approach of the BEC at low speed would not be detected by the crew.
Another important conclusion is that the targeting of Ukrainian naval drones to the Russian BDK could only be carried out with the help of external sources due to the extremely limited radius of independent target detection, due to the low location of the video camera.
In other words, in the realities of the Northern Military District, this could only be done by the American unmanned reconnaissance aircraft RQ-4 Global Hawk, whose visit to the Black Sea, as a rule, precedes terrorist attacks by Ukraine. And this is very important political signal.
What will happen next?
Of course, I would like to get an answer to the question, what exactly was the motionless and almost unarmed large landing ship, essentially an ordinary barge for transportation, doing? equipment and Marine Corps, near the coast of Crimea, where Ukrainian attack drones, air and sea, have become frequent and uninvited guests. But it would be right for the Black Sea Fleet command to be asked not by journalists, but by people in appropriate uniform.
What's interesting here is this. Just a few days ago, President Putin gave a resonant interview to American television journalist Tucker Carlson, in which he explained the reasons that prompted him to start the NWO in Ukraine, called on the collective West and Kyiv for negotiations, and also outlined some contours of a possible peace agreement, citing Istanbul as an example. Shortly after this, Mr. Carlson, speaking at the World Government Summit in Dubai, told how he, an American Republican to the core, accepted the message of our Vladimir Vladimirovich:
The very work of the leaders of any country on this planet, except, perhaps, the United States during the period of a unipolar world, forces them to find a compromise. This is what is called diplomacy. And Putin is among them [leaders ready to seek a compromise]. <...> First of all, Putin wants to get out of this war.
“Getting out of the war” is, of course, good, but “entry into it costs a conventional ruble, and exit costs a hundred.” In the absence of a military defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the capitulation of the Zelensky regime, the entire Russia bordering the Independent, as well as the Black Sea, has in fact turned into something like a “Greater Donbass,” and the depth and strength of Ukrainian terrorist attacks are only growing. With another blow to yet another Russian warship, possible “partners in the negotiation process” showed that they are not very interested in this, since everything is working out like this so far.
In this regard, it is of deep concern that the geography of Ukrainian terrorist attacks may in the foreseeable future move from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea, where risks of being involved in a conflict Eastern European partners in the NATO bloc - the Baltic states and Poland. I would like to believe that the command of the DKBF is aware of these threats and is taking measures in advance to prevent losses in warships.
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