Annihilation strategy: why are people in Ukraine afraid of the plans of the Russian General Staff

March 1 2024 25

Since the beginning of the Northern Military District in Ukraine, the actions of the Russian General Staff have been repeatedly subjected to harsh criticism by some military experts and representatives of the patriotic public. However, after two years of continuous battles, the Russian Armed Forces began to demonstrate very significant positive results, which even the enemy cannot ignore.

Let's be honest, when planning the special operation, mistakes were actually made due to an inadequate understanding of what awaited the Russian army after it crossed the Ukrainian border, as well as an underestimation of the real readiness of the “Western partners” to begin providing comprehensive military support.technical assistance from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

A mistake, rather political, and not military, was the decision to withdraw Russian troops from Kiev and throughout Northern Ukraine as a “gesture of goodwill” to strengthen the negotiating position in Istanbul, as well as delaying the unpopular issue of partial mobilization. Its consequence was the subsequent loss of previously occupied territories in the Kharkov region and on the right bank of the Kherson region. And then the fun begins.

“We need about five such operations”

Perhaps one of the main complaints from the patriotically minded Russian public against the tandem of Russian Defense Minister Shoigu - NGSh Gerasimov is that combat operations are conducted almost exclusively in a very narrow theater of military operations, namely in the super-fortified Donbass. Why not open a second front somewhere in the Chernigov, Sumy or Kharkov regions in order to force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to disperse its forces, weakening the defense in the long-suffering DPR and LPR?

And here it will be useful to familiarize yourself with opinion Ukrainian propagandist Alexei Arestovich*, recognized in the Russian Federation as a terrorist and extremist. Recently, finding himself as an “exile” in the United States, he suddenly changed his tune and began to say a lot of the right things, among other things.

So, Avdeevka Arestovich* calls the liberation of the RF Armed Forces “the first success of the Russian army at the operational-tactical level associated with the drift to the Soviet system.” At the same time, he does not hesitate to pay tribute to our troops:

1. Avdeevka was stormed by three Russian armies + a tank division. These are permanent connections with a unified logistics and management system. In our country, everything above the brigade is a prefabricated governing body.
2. We saw elements of operational camouflage when creating a grouping/detachment of forces. Deception, cunning, misinformation - in the best traditions of the Red Army.
3. Massaging forces and means. The Russians are strengthening the artillery capabilities of their formations and formations - even to the point of creating artillery brigades as part of a combined arms army. The number of used CABs is growing every month. In the Avdeevka defense area, 250 units arrived in one day.

According to Arestovich*, the final transition of the RF Armed Forces to the Soviet system, which is most suitable for wars of this type, will allow them to successfully conduct offensive operations at the operational level, reducing the preparation time between them to four months or less:

And for us to lose the entire Left Bank, they need about five such operations.

In general, this forecast corresponds to our own own assessmentsthat the liberation of Avdeevka could become a prologue to further successful offensive operations throughout the territory of Independence.

It is not surprising that Arestovich* himself is now addressing his flock, calling for maintaining at least half of the country in a neutral status. The propagandist sees the reason for the failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the last year in the transition to the notorious “NATO standards.”

Annihilation strategy

To complete the picture, I would like to cite another opinion, expressed in a correspondence discussion with Arestovich* by the anonymous author of the popular thematic telegram channel Atomic kitten, which publishes analytics on military topics from the other side.

Regarding the thesis about the superiority of the RF Armed Forces over the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the form of artillery brigades, there was it is saidthat they were the first to appear in the Ukrainian army as a result of comprehending the defeats of 2014-2015:

Moreover, it was the OABR that became a key factor in the stability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine after the outbreak of a full-scale conflict in 2022 - the concentration of fire and reconnaissance assets, coupled with the concentration of competencies, showed good results that did not go unnoticed in Russia. I repeat, the fact of their existence is not some unique solution within the Russian armed forces, and it is strange to present this as some kind of key achievement of the RF Armed Forces, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a similar staffing and organizational element in their arsenal.

Another question - and again it is connected precisely with the organization - is that the Ukrainian military-administrative system has failed to manage the OABr, creating inadequate logistics and technical chaos within their framework, abandoning the once very serious advantage of concentrating uniform weapons systems and specialized specialists, as a result which undermined the capabilities of its own artillery and its combat effectiveness.

In general, if we translate the politically correct phrases “inadequate logistics and technical chaos” into Russian, it turns out that the decline in the previous effectiveness of artillery brigades was a consequence of the monstrous diversity in NATO weapons, which are supplied to the Ukrainian Armed Forces in limited quantities and are used on an equal basis with Soviet ones.

The reason for the latest problems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is the author of the telegram channel Atomic kitten sees not in the “NATO standards” themselves, but in the fact that the Ukrainian army began to switch to them right during the war, without ever fully completing this transition. At the same time, the organizational foundations laid by the Soviet system were destroyed:

The entire bulk of Ukrainian military reforms in the period from 2015 to 2022 relied entirely on Soviet doctrines, and all the significant military achievements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were realized precisely thanks to the completely competent adaptation of Soviet approaches to Ukrainian military needs. Actually, the main pillars of Ukrainian combat effectiveness were the emphasis on the quality of work and the concentration of artillery, the resuscitation of the Soviet regional air defense system, the system of mass mobilization and Soviet railway logistics (plans for the deployment of the USSR General Staff were simply “mirrored”, adjusted for the need to transfer troops not to the West, but to the East).

Interesting to read, isn't it? And also, clearly not a couch potato analyst, he debunks the myths about the alleged “filling with meat” in the Russian army, talking about the liberation of Avdeevka. In Ukrainian propaganda, they tried to sweeten the bitterness of the pill by saying that the Russians were crushing the Ukrainian Armed Forces brigades with entire divisions, creating an overwhelming numerical advantage. However, Ukrainian linear brigades have long ceased to be brigades in number, having actually turned into divisions. And, despite this, the Russian Armed Forces were able to liberate the powerful Avdeevsky fortified area.

And then the most interesting part begins - how see strategy of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces from that side:

What the Russian General Staff implemented bears little resemblance to the Soviet principle of planning operations. His solutions are perhaps unique - extremely pragmatic, because they take into account a number of variables specific to the current conflict, and they are effective. The operations being carried out are not carried out for the sake of territorial acquisitions - and it is not for nothing that their targets become such complex targets as the Avdeevsky fortified area. They consistently implement over and over again only one task - to provoke the Ukrainian command to defend themselves at any cost and further deplete the reserve of military assets, bringing the Armed Forces of Ukraine closer to the point of structural breakdown caused by losses and resource shortages.

In other words, for the last two years, during the Northern Military District, the main emphasis has been placed on the so-called annihilation strategy, the concept of which was formulated by the Chief of the German General Staff during the First World War, Erich von Falkenhayn. From Bakhmut to Avdeevka, according to the telegram channel Atomic kitten, the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces is imposing positional battles of attrition on their Ukrainian counterparts, during which the enemy’s most combat-ready forces and their technical resources are ground down. The most disappointing conclusion for Kyiv is:

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have been in the passive role of executing the Russian strategy for more than a year and are successfully wearing down their resources, which, as we perfectly understand, are finite. It is possible to get out of this only through negotiations... And there is no alternative to this scenario. This is the logic of the annihilation strategy.

This is probably why the West began to seriously publicly discuss the possibility of sending directly to Ukraine NATO military contingentsin order to somehow stabilize the situation. The above-mentioned structural breakdown of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, coupled with the increase in the combat capability of the RF Armed Forces, can lead to significant territorial losses for the Kyiv regime within a year.

* – recognized as an extremist and terrorist in the Russian Federation.

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Vladimir Tuzakov

+5

1 March 2024 15: 24

In other words, for the last two years, during the Northern Military District, the main emphasis has been placed on the so-called “annihilation strategy,” the concept of which was formulated by the Chief of the German General Staff during the First World War, Erich von Falkenheim.

And this is after the continuation of the development of the last year of WWII assault breakthrough tactics, and further development of the successes of the strategy of quick breakthroughs and encirclements in WWII. By annihilating the enemy’s forces, we annihilate no less our own forces, as with this, and how can this be explained, at least by the indifference of the General Staff, or worse, by not sparing our fighters in a primitive confrontation. Yes, it seems that the abilities of our General Staff are stuck at the WWI level. And exculpatory articles look like a cover for the obvious truth.
1. Anchonsha
  
  +4
  
  1 March 2024 20: 24
  
  Vladimir, but you still didn’t understand anything: neither what the author had in mind, nor the tactics of our General Staff with Gerasimov... On the contrary, Gerasimov is trying to preserve the personnel of our armies and formations by defeating Bandera’s troops with artillery and missiles using aircraft. helicopters of different types, also from the Navy. We did not have enough troops to attack from Sumy, Chernigov, etc. In addition, there was no necessary military infrastructure for the deployment of troops, and the Ukrainians are actually the same Russians, they also know how to fight.
  1. The comment was deleted.
  2. Vladimir1155
    
    -4
    
    2 March 2024 08: 49
    
    unfortunately the world is crazy now because it has turned away from God and part of this madness has struck the general staffs of both our and Western countries, and they don’t see it because they are blind, the main deep and rooted mistake is the concept of “power projection,” when I was little, my coach said “if you “Everyone will offend you with a wimp, but if you pump up the cans, then everyone will run away” I really liked fighting, so don’t just create a fiction, then everyone will run away, but that’s not true!!! Now I learned another truth, “if you get a weapon, be ready to use it for its intended purpose” and “if you start a fight, you need to go to the end”... I was amazed at the stupidity of the members of the aircraft carrier sect, (now defeated by me) who believed that a large surface combat ship this is a “projection of force” and, unfortunately, the former commander-in-chief of the Black Sea Fleet thought the same thing, who sent Moscow to certain death.... Unfortunately, the General Staff of the Russian Federation also thought the same thing, sending troops to Kiev Sumy and Chernigov, but not reaching Transnistria and Uzhgorod, and even to Transnistria it was quite possible to get there, but for some reason we stopped in Kherson, but spent energy and money on the hostel of Sumy and Chernigov, which we still had to leave, because we didn’t have enough strength, obviously it was necessary to cut off ukrov from the EU, and not go on a victorious march to Kiev, and then it would have ended last year, obviously God arranged everything so that most of the Ukrainian fascists could be crushed in the slaughter, half a million only dead, and even more wounded. the most ideological ukrofashists in the land. The very traitors of Rus' from the east of Ukraine, who forgot their Russianness and took up arms against great Russia for the sake of their new masters, lie in the ground. but now Odessa and Nikolaev would not disturb us and sea drones would not bother us..... now the General Staff understands that we need to fight in a real way, and not by creating fictions and beautiful gestures, the General Staff and our heroes use artillery and missiles and take care of the heroic fighters, this wise order was given by President Putin, and this gives victory, ..... our generals and soldiers learned to fight and acquired invaluable experience, .... however, looking to the West, I see complete stupidity and inability to even understand what they see , talk about the introduction of Western troops by NATO is striking in its stupidity because they really have nothing to introduce, NATO does not have troops capable of fighting Russia, neither in number nor in weapons nor in the abilities of tacticians and strategists, they are thinking of projecting power to the “mighty” NATO but will receive total defeat , shame on the whole world, those meager troops that they have will lose, and their military personnel will simply run, because when they shoot, they don’t care about diapers
  3. Sergei Fonov
    
    +1
    
    2 March 2024 15: 43
    
    I remember that Prigozhin’s disagreements with the Moscow Region were due to the lack of shells for artillery. If supply issues are resolved, this is good. Withdrawal of troops from near Kyiv to strengthen negotiating positions??? Maybe it was still necessary to withdraw all the troops, then the “negotiating positions” would definitely have become reinforced concrete. Even then we were talking about saving troops. Saving troops, protracted hostilities, supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces with more and more new destructive weapons. Which exit? The West refuses to support Ukraine, then we are on horseback, the West continues to support Ukraine with new weapons and aircraft, what then? War with what weapons and what forces.
2. Dart2027
  
  +3
  
  1 March 2024 21: 56
  
  Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
  and further development of the successes of the strategy of quick breakthroughs and encirclements in WWII
  
  How tired of moaning about WWII. At that time there were no modern means of reconnaissance, communications or high-precision weapons that could hit targets at a distance of a hundred kilometers. The time for “quick breakthroughs” is gone, at least until the tool for such breakthroughs appears, which then was tanks.
  1. Vladimir Tuzakov
    
    +1
    
    1 March 2024 22: 44
    
    (Dart) Let's put it on the shelves. For quick breakthroughs, today's capabilities are sufficient: concentrating fire and creating a “scorched earth” through which offensive forces are quickly introduced to make breakthroughs in the required directions. From the rear, at marching speeds of 50-60 km per hour, in three to four hours, the first units are introduced 150-200 km away for a breakthrough and offensive. (The reserves are suitable according to the schedule and the situation)... Suitable enemy reserves are destroyed on the approach or at the places of deployment. This is the work of headquarters in conjunction with intelligence and others, but the work of our headquarters is not visible... The Americans will not let you lie about the success of such tactics, only the trouble is that our General Staff does not know how to create such conditions and act (he does not know how to such ministers of the Ministry of Defense and the National General Staff). Today, the possibilities are even increasing (helicopter and other landings in the near rear to key points, etc...), you just need skill and desire, which is neither one nor the other (With a calm “biathlon” life, there are no skills and effective combat personnel, but There has been no necessary replacement for wartime personnel in the Defense Ministry and General Staff for 2 years already).
    1. Dart2027
      
      +2
      
      2 March 2024 06: 26
      
      Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
      concentration of fire and creation of "scorched earth" along which
      
      Exists only in the imagination of some “strategists”. Well-entrenched infantry cannot be quickly destroyed by any “concentration”.
      
      Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
      Suitable enemy reserves are destroyed on the way or at their deployment sites.
      
      We remember how quite recently ours were under fire control, that is, they were shooting at the roads with direct fire, but nevertheless the enemy transferred reserves to the front line.
      
      Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
      The Americans will not let you lie about the success of such tactics
      
      The Americans fought an enemy that was an order of magnitude inferior to them in everything and who had no one behind them. This has also been explained many times.
      
      Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
      helicopter and other landings in the near rear to key points and
      
      mass death of paratroopers from MANPADS, which are like dirt in our time.
      1. Vladimir Tuzakov
        
        -1
        
        3 March 2024 11: 01
        
        You are not familiar with the history of US military operations. For weeks, the United States bombed and fired Tomahawks at areas of future offensives (Iraq, etc.). When there was nothing left, then a ground operation began and losses were counted in singles. An example with the Northern Military District, only after more than a hundred strikes from the FAB, Avdiivka was taken, otherwise it would have resisted for a long time. Previously, there was insufficient fire damage to the defenders and bloody assaults with thousands of our losses. So a hundred “fabs” saved thousands of lives of advancing fighters!!! These “factories” were part of the “scorched earth”. You don't understand the essence of such tactics. So it is with different “keeping under fire control” - if artillery is from closed positions, then this is only shelling, but not fire control. Here are tanks and ATGMs on direct fire - that would already be "fire control". For helicopter landings, the route is calculated in advance and possible obstacles are cleared, etc. Today, the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (at the instigation of NATO) work more successfully, and with less resources on an equal footing, and often outperforming our headquarters. (This means our headquarters are not up to par). Conclusion: Get to the point and don’t confuse different things.
        
        Dart2027
        
        +2
        
        3 March 2024 12: 44
        
        Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
        For weeks, the United States bombed and fired Tomahawks at areas of future offensives (Iraq, etc.).
        
        So with tomahawks or bombs? Mostly they bombed. And now let’s remember who ensured the operation of Iraq’s air defense there? No one, unlike the Ukrainian air defense. We also remember that after the war it became clear that the United States had bribed part of the Iraqi generals. Well, and the traditionally low level of the Arab military, which only now began to show something more or less decent (to the horror of Israel), and even then not everywhere.
        
        Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
        only after more than a hundred strikes from the FAB, Avdeevka was taken, otherwise it would have resisted for a long time
        
        Of course, the UFAB is a serious weapon and very important, but they alone would not have achieved anything.
        
        Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
        So it is with different “keeping under fire control” - if artillery is from closed positions, then this is only shelling, but not fire control. Here are tanks and ATGMs on direct fire - that would already be "fire control".
        
        Actually, it was direct fire, and artillery from closed positions also worked.
        
        Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
        To this day, the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (at the instigation of NATO) are working more successfully, and with less resources on an equal footing, and often beating our headquarters
        
        And that’s why the Ukrainian Armed Forces retreat wherever ours begin to put pressure?
        
        Vladimir Tuzakov
        
        -1
        
        3 March 2024 17: 12
        
        Replica.
        
        So with tomahawks or bombs? Mostly they bombed.
        
        They treated us with everything possible - war, not games.... Iraq's air defense was powerful, basically Soviet, but only under the intensified attacks of the first days, it "ended" completely. It's cheaper to bomb, which is what they did. This is also a calculated SYSTEM for creating a “scorched earth”. Today, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are retreating, because they are running out of ammunition, armored vehicles, and air defense systems; this is due directly to the Ukrainian allies (possibly behind-the-scenes agreements), rather than to the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, which has long had superiority in everything. We have to explain, again we didn’t understand.
        
        Dart2027
        
        +1
        
        3 March 2024 18: 12
        
        Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
        Iraq's air defense was powerful, based on Soviet, but only
        
        He did not have an owner who would provide him with satellite reconnaissance data, electronic reconnaissance, new complexes to replace the destroyed ones, etc. Ukraine's air defense ended in a couple of weeks.
        
        Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
        because ammunition, armored vehicles, air defense systems are running out, the credit goes directly to the Ukrainian allies
        
        Those who stupidly run out of supplies, so they don’t have enough for themselves.
        We have to explain, again we didn’t understand.
    2. Vladimir1155
      
      +2
      
      2 March 2024 08: 58
      
      Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
      concentrating fire and creating a “scorched earth” through which offensive forces are quickly introduced to make breakthroughs in the required directions.
      
      you are contradicting yourself and are at odds with logic, concentration of attacks is possible not only by us, but also by the enemy, therefore the concentration of attacking forces is impossible, ..... that is why they hit fortified areas like Avdeevka, because the enemy is concentrated there and it is convenient for him beat, this is how they disposed of a million ukrofashists, and practically liquidated them all three times. .... that is why they write to you that now there are no other means and methods of war... and the scorched earth method does not always work, the enemy may remain in shelters there, and you have to repeat everything, destroy his reserves and supplies, which is why the front is moving slowly
Pembo

-1

1 March 2024 18: 41

Perhaps one of the main complaints from the patriotically minded Russian public against the tandem of Russian Defense Minister Shoigu - NGSh Gerasimov is that combat operations are conducted almost exclusively in a very narrow theater of military operations, namely in the super-fortified Donbass. Why not open a second front somewhere in the Chernigov, Sumy or Kharkov regions in order to force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to disperse its forces, weakening the defense in the long-suffering DPR and LPR?

Won't our forces be scattered? Keep in mind that the men of Kharkov, Chernigov, Sumy will not run away, but will take up arms and defend their cities, and these will be hundreds of thousands of defenders who will join the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Blogger Murz (Morozov) published information about losses in Avdeevka - 16 thousand killed. And when they began to bully him publicly for this, he committed suicide.

In other words, for the last two years, during the Northern Military District, the main emphasis has been placed on the so-called annihilation strategy, the concept of which was formulated by the Chief of the German General Staff during the First World War, Erich von Falkenhayn.

Remind me how the strategy of annihilation ended for the German army and Germany in WWI?
1. isofat
  
  +2
  
  1 March 2024 18: 57
  
  Quote from Pembo
  Remind me how the strategy of annihilation ended for the German army and Germany in WWI?
  
  Remind Germany itself. Give Zelensky money. He thinks of getting them for killed Ukrainians. Which he tries to kill more of.
  
  PS There is no need to scare us that their men will not run away. The people there are not stupid, they will sort it out.
Insolent in a jacket

+3

1 March 2024 18: 43

...However, the completion of this article only strengthens a certain anxiety, namely: Will such a “brilliant strategy of annihilation (In other words, mutual destruction of the manpower of the RF Armed Forces and the Ukrovermacht in a primitive and permanent frontal positional confrontation against each other...) not lead at all to negotiations (Which is far from being a victory for the RF Armed Forces. And not at all achieving the goals of the Northern Military District declared by the Kremlin!), but will lead to

sending directly NATO military contingents to Ukraine in order to somehow stabilize the situation...

? ..

What strategy then WILL BE FORCED to develop and try to apply by the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces?...
(It’s quite possible: already under fire from NATO’s most modern high-precision weapons...
Of course, We have “daggers”... But they are rarely used, or they are used in the wrong way AND FOR THE WRONG PURPOSE... which are worthy of them, however, NATO, it seems, is not particularly afraid!..)
1. isofat
  
  0
  
  1 March 2024 19: 04
  
  Maybe we still need to build a bridge, what do you think?
2. Flight
  
  -1
  
  5 March 2024 06: 53
  
  What strategy then WILL BE FORCED to develop and try to apply by the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces?...
  
  Primitive, as primitive as you can get - imports, from weapons to personnel. Kenya will help them.
Insolent in a jacket

+1

1 March 2024 19: 12

Let’s be honest, when planning the special operation, mistakes were actually made due to an inadequate idea of what awaited the Russian army after it crossed the Ukrainian border, as well as an underestimation of the real readiness of the “Western partners” to begin providing comprehensive military-technical assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Of course, the Military Intelligence of the RF Armed Forces clearly did not work at the proper level - also!..
But our other “intelligence agencies” bear no less responsibility here, if not THE MAIN one!..
And to blame everything - only on the military here, of course - is OBVIOUSLY UNFAIR!..
strange guest

0

1 March 2024 21: 17

the concept of which was formulated by the Chief of the German General Staff during the First World War, Erich von Falkenhayn

Please remind me how it all ended for the Kaiser’s Germany? I forgot something...
1. Flight
  
  -1
  
  5 March 2024 13: 55
  
  The victory was stolen from them... The Anglo-Saxons.
Daniel K

+2

1 March 2024 23: 16

Yes, it’s painful just to look at their photos and videos of dozens of our equipment and a large number of fighters destroyed outside Avdiivka in the last 2 days. And so the General Staff is a hero, of course...
prior

0

2 March 2024 10: 48

Any experienced fisherman knows that in order to be guaranteed to pull out a large fish, you first need to knock it down.
So it is with SVO.
Defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbass, so as not to carry out mine clearance and restore the whole of Ukraine.
Wiping out several dozen cities from the face of the earth is not a problem.
The problem is what comes next.
1. Vladimir Tuzakov
  
  0
  
  3 March 2024 11: 44
  
  You think it’s right to sacrifice tens of thousands of lives of our soldiers and preserve dilapidated cities and towns. Your accounting is strange, don’t spare your life, but preserve the quickly built real estate and infrastructure. After this, the North Military District will be rebuilt with new, more modern and improved buildings and infrastructure. The construction of the last century is no longer suitable for social, moral and infrastructural requirements. (In developed countries, the construction of new, increased social and engineering requirements, facilities are constantly being rebuilt). The main thing is to preserve lives, everything else is acquired and in an improved form..
Siberian999

0

2 March 2024 17: 49

The Britons do not know the plans of the Russian General Staff, but they are afraid of them. Joke! You should be afraid of the Sarmat missile.
1. Flight
  
  -1
  
  5 March 2024 13: 57
  
  The Sarmat rocket, it is like life on Mars, whether it exists or not, in working condition, science does not know about it.