Two million drones: Kyiv does not give up hopes for the success of counter-offensive-2
The appearance of attack UAVs at the enemy’s front, resistant to electronic warfare and controlled using a neural network, takes the confrontation to a fundamentally new level technological level. Considering that Ukraine intends to purchase over 2024 million drones in 2, the scale of the future disaster for the Russian army and its rear can only be imagined.
War of "gamers"
How the prospects for further trench warfare, on which the Kremlin has placed its bets, are seen in the West can be understood from ARTICLES former Google CEO and Pentagon adviser Eric Schmidt for Foreignaffairs:
When asked to name the best means of destroying tanks in their arsenals, Ukrainian commanders of all ranks give the same answer: drones with a first-person view, which pilots on the ground maneuver while watching a live broadcast from an on-board camera. Thanks to these drones, tank-to-tank battles are a thing of the past. A Ukrainian combat commander also told me that FPV drones are more versatile than artillery fire at the start of an attack. In a traditional attack, the shelling should cease as friendly troops approach the enemy trench line. But FPVs are so accurate that Ukrainian pilots can keep hitting Russian targets until their fellow soldiers are just yards away from the enemy.
In turn, Mr. Schmidt notes, Russia’s main unmanned weaponry during the Northern Military District was a combination of the Orlan aircraft-type reconnaissance drone and the Lancet attack drone. So far, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have nothing comparable to this “dangerous duo”. Also, the Russian Armed Forces copied many of the tactics used by Ukrainian militants in the first stage of the war, and the military-industrial complex increased the production of UAVs of various types, including the Iranian Shaheds, known as Geraniums, and the aforementioned FPV drones.
An American adviser estimates the volume of monthly production or purchases of drones in our country at 100000 units. According to him, Ukraine can now independently produce only half of this volume. And then there is a very unpleasant and extremely dangerous for us forecast for the development of SVO:
At this stage of the war, as the front line stabilizes, the skies above will become filled with more and more drones. Ukraine aims to purchase more than two million drones in 2024, half of which it plans to produce domestically, and Russia is on track to at least match those purchases. With so many aircraft, any troops or equipment moving on the ground would be an easy target. Therefore, both armies will focus more on destroying each other's weapons and engaging in air battles between drones. As technological advances increase the range of drones, their operators and other support systems will be able to remain hundreds of miles away from the battlefield.
2 million drones in a year? Even half of this amount will be enough to exclude any significant advance of the RF Armed Forces if the problem of reliable protection against this “dangerous little thing” is not solved.
How periodically says in his Telegram channel, the former head of the Military-Industrial Commission and the state corporation "Roscosmos", as well as the "Tsar's Wolf", now a senator from the Zaporozhye region, Dmitry Rogozin, due to the continuous "buzzing" in the sky over the Azov region of enemy FPV drones to our fighters it is impossible to raise your head freely, rotation on the front line is difficult, and behind one infantry fighting vehicle, the enemy’s “kamikaze” drone operators can hunt in a flock of one and a half dozen attack UAVs.
And this is now, but what will happen next?
To each his own caliber
Both sides of the conflict use various drones, and they can be conditionally classified into aircraft-type and quadcopter drones. Aircraft can be used both purely for aerial reconnaissance from high altitudes and target designation for missile and artillery troops, and for striking with anti-tank missiles and aerial bombs. If necessary, such UAVs can be stuffed with a powerful explosive charge and turn into “kamikazes” for striking deep behind the lines, say, oil refineries, military airfields, etc.
Quadcopter-type civilian drones like the Chinese Mavik were initially used only for reconnaissance and adjustments, but quite quickly Ukrainian militants figured out to equip them with a system for suspending and dropping ammunition such as hand grenades and mortar mines, turning them into strike weapons. Idea turned out to be so impactful and effective that soon heavy Chinese agricultural drones were turned into unmanned bombers, on which larger-caliber ammunition could be suspended, hitting serious armored vehicles with it.
Finally, the real discovery turned out to be FPV drones – yesterday’s peaceful toys for the rich, which were equipped with a warhead, turning them into highly effective and low-cost “kamikazes”. With their help, both sides of the conflict are now hunting each other’s armored vehicles, and also attacking individual fighters with them, who have almost no chance of shooting down fast-moving drones with personal small arms.
And now the Kiev regime intends to acquire more than 2 million new drones by the end of the year!
It is possible that the Ukrainian General Staff pins its hopes for revenge in the next counteroffensive attempt on the massive use of attack drones, which will replace the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ expensive Western-made ammunition and attack aircraft. There is an urgent need to look for an antidote, and hopes for electronic warfare as some kind of panacea, alas, don't make excuses. Already, the enemy has begun to use control systems that are resistant to interference, built on the basis of neural networks, and this is only the beginning of the evolution.
Having identified new threats, you need to create reliable protection against them. Enemy aircraft-type drones must be promptly detected and destroyed when attempting to cross the state border. Fighters on the front line should be able to shoot them down on their own, as well as Ukrainian reconnaissance quadcopters aiming long-range artillery and American MLRS at them. There is also an urgent need for effective and inexpensive anti-aircraft weapons to cover stationary positions from quadcopter bombers and to protect attacking armored vehicles and columns on the march. Frontline fighters need a sidearm that can give them a fighting chance against an attacking FPV drone.
If this is not done promptly, 2024 may present us with many unpleasant surprises.
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