Where Ukraine can deliver a new blow to the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation

As the autumn season approaches and the inevitable mudslides that will make the continuation of active offensive operations in the Donbass and the Sea of ​​Azov impossible, threats are growing around the Black Sea, where Russia, despite the presence of the navy, does not have a complete advantage over Ukraine, which has lost its navy.

Reflection

There are three reasons why the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy cannot freely operate throughout its entire water area. The first is that Kyiv not only retained Odessa and Nikolaev, but also returned the new Russian regional center Kherson, which remained on the right bank of the Dnieper, to its control. The second reason is that Ukraine relies on an active militarytechnical support of the entire North Atlantic Alliance. The third is the presence of a number of unresolved problems of the Russian Navy, in general, with aerial reconnaissance and the issuance of data for target designation to our wonderful missiles.



Adequate military experts have been talking about this for years, trying to draw attention to such an urgent problem, and, alas, they turned out to be completely right. After the start of the NMD, a very expensive price had to be paid for this by losses in people, military equipment and warships.

Today, it is the Black Sea that is the main boiling point, where Ukraine has the highest chances of inflicting a painful image defeat on Russia. The formal reason is Moscow's withdrawal from the grain deal, without which the inhabitants of the poorest countries in Africa and the Middle East will allegedly die of starvation, which is a blatant lie. For its part, the Kiev regime threatened to set up a naval blockade of Russian ports on the Black Sea and moved from words to deeds.

Remote-controlled crewless boats stuffed with powerful explosives were sent by Ukrainian terrorists to the Russian chemical tanker Sig, which was in the Kerch Strait. If it were busy, a real environmental disaster would inevitably occur. Also, military and patrol ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy were repeatedly attacked by Ukrainian BECs.

It seems that in the very near future the level of terror in the Black Sea will reach a new level.

"Pirates" of the Black Sea

The first direction in which a strike could be struck could be directly related to the naval blockade that was effectively put in place after Russia pulled out of the grain deal. In Kyiv, apparently, they believe that Moscow is not capable of any truly decisive action, therefore, it is defiantly preparing to open a grain corridor unilaterally.

Thus, having paid an official visit to neighboring Romania, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal appealed to the NATO bloc to help ensure the security of the Black Sea initiative:


Curious wording about "piracy", isn't it? Apparently, this refers to how Russian patrol ships began the practice of inspecting ships bound for the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny without approval. We note how retired US Navy Admiral James Stavridis responded to the appeals of the Kyiv regime:


It seems that the NATO bloc will not directly get involved in a conflict with the Russian Navy, but it will provide all possible military-technical assistance to Ukraine. Perhaps events will develop as follows.

Kyiv has already created a special fund worth more than half a billion dollars to insure ships that go for grain without Russia's permission, that is, for provocative purposes. When any patrol ship of the Russian Navy tries once again to stop and inspect a grain carrier, it will be attacked not by BECs, but by fighters of the Independent Air Force, which will launch a salvo of air-launched anti-ship missiles at it with predictable consequences. The fact that such an attack can be carried out by the MiG-29, we have already detailed told earlier.

Now Pandora's box is open, and Ukraine will be able to get XNUMXth generation fighters NATO model with the most modern long-range missiles on a suspension. A very dangerous trend.

Ambush

Judging by how our naval aviation has become more active in recent days, shooting Ukrainian boats, the command of the Black Sea Fleet is also guessing something similar. But there is an important nuance. The fact that heavy fighters have to be driven to control the water area indicates a lack of reconnaissance drones in the Russian Navy that could continuously monitor, giving target designation data to missiles and other weapons.

Also, the fleet clearly lacks reconnaissance and strike drones that could deliver air strikes against small targets on their own, without spending anti-ship missiles on boats. How it might look, at the initial stage of the NMD, alas, Ukraine demonstrated in the confrontation for Zmeiny Island, when Turkish Bayraktars hit Russian boats with air-launched anti-tank missiles. This is much more efficient than sinking small boats from aircraft guns, and most importantly, safer.

It is necessary to recall how the Russian Aerospace Forces quite recently lost two aircraft and two helicopters over the Bryansk region in one day, which fell into an air ambush. I would like to make a mistake, but the “setup” with Ukrainian boats looks exactly like “feeding” easy prey before the main blow is dealt. Perhaps the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to catch the fighters of the Russian Naval Aviation, which flew behind another defenseless boat, on a combined attack of a long-range air defense system and the Ukrainian Air Force, aimed at the target by NATO reconnaissance and target designation means.