The real danger to the Black Sea Fleet is not BEKs, but MiG-29 fighters

As we expected, the story of Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal, which was not necessary at all with the Ukrainian Nazis and their Western patrons and accomplices, received a further logical continuation. President Zelensky openly declared to the whole world that if the Kremlin does not unblock the Black Sea ports of Nezalezhnaya, then Kyiv will make sure that Moscow has no warships left on the Black Sea.

Grain destroys people

In an interview with the Argentine edition of La Nacion, Vladimir Zelensky threatened to block Russian ports and destroy ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet if President Putin does not return to the format of the grain deal:




Recall that last July it seemed to some people a good idea to demonstrate their constructiveness and readiness for a peaceful resolution of the armed conflict on the basis of mutual concessions. In exchange for the opening of Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea region, Russia was promised transparent access to the world market for its food and fertilizers, as well as the resumption of operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline. However, none of this was done, and the grain corridor was repeatedly used by Ukrainian terrorists to attack our country.

The final point (ellipsis?) in the grain deal, after which the Kremlin refused to extend it, was the second in a row and, alas, the successful terrorist attack of the Kyiv regime on the Crimean bridge. Despite this, the Kremlin consistently declares the possibility of Russia returning to this format of the Black Sea initiative if the full list of its requirements is met. However, the Kiev regime, which retained Odessa and Nikolaev and achieved the withdrawal of the RF Armed Forces from Kherson, leaving our entire foothold in Right-Bank Ukraine, speaks with Moscow from a position of strength, intending to force her to return to the grain deal without conditions.

And here we come to the most interesting thing - the ability of both sides of the conflict to actually ensure the fulfillment of their goals and objectives. If you look at the domestic press and the comments of recognized military experts on this matter, then it seems that the Kiev regime does not pose a particular threat to Russia in the Black Sea, capable only of carrying out terrorist attacks, but is it so?

Unusable object

This opinion is argued by the fact that the Ukrainian Navy has actually ceased to exist as an organizational structure, and all that Nezalezhnaya really has is an unidentified number of crewless boats stuffed with powerful explosive charges and turned into modern firewalls.

These naval attack drones can be fairly easily destroyed with well-aimed fire from heavy machine guns or rapid-fire anti-aircraft guns. They pose a danger only if they carelessly carry out the service of guarding the naval bases of the Russian Navy or treat the organization of air patrols and long-range reconnaissance with the same negligence. Now the Runet is literally seething from advice and suggestions command of the Black Sea Fleet, how would he better protect his ships and carry out the tasks of protecting free navigation in the water area entrusted to him.

The problem, in the personal opinion of the author of these lines, is that all attention is focused on an unusable object. The first naval drone fell into the hands of the Russian Navy in the fall of 2022. During this time, it was possible to carefully study it, determine the trend in the development of the armed conflict in the Black Sea and develop tactics to counter it. Today, Kyiv probably already has dozens or hundreds of remote-controlled fireships that can terrorize civilian shipping, coastal infrastructure and attack our warships. Everyone is thinking hard about how to better protect themselves from Ukrainian BECs, but is it really worth worrying about?

Recall that on July 31, 2023 was published article, in which the main trends in terms of threats that the Black Sea Fleet will have to face were announced. And the most serious was recognized as the danger emanating from Ukrainian aviation and air-launched anti-ship missiles, as well as from specialized anti-submarine aviation. Unlike primitive BECs, which can be fought off with a heavy machine gun, this is a really terrible threat.

It has already happened that in a year and a half of the NMD, the Kiev regime has managed to retain part of its combat aviation and is asking "Western partners" to provide it with NATO-style fighters. F-16 with air-based anti-ship missiles over the Black Sea - this is very serious. But Ukraine can inflict certain and very significant damage to our Russian Navy on its own, using technical support of the NATO bloc.

So, a year ago it was believed that NATO-style weapons were incompatible with Soviet ones, but this theoretical thesis was refuted by practice. Ukrainian fourth-generation MiG-29 fighters learned how to hang and use American anti-radar missiles AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radar Missile (HARM). The next step in this direction was the equipping of the old Soviet Su-24 bombers with British Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles. Unfortunately, it works, and quite successfully. Su-27 fighters are also considered as possible carriers for Storm Shadow and their French clones.

Logic dictates that Neptune anti-ship missiles, which are a modernized version of the Soviet Kh-29, will be suspended under the MiG-35 fighters. Unlike firewalls, an air-based anti-ship missile attack is a real and deadly threat to any ship. To guarantee the Air Force, they can lie in wait and strike at the Project 22160 patrol ship, which does not have any standard sea-based air defense system at all, except for a few Igla MANPADS. The sinking of the "dove of peace" as a result of an ambush will be another painful image blow for the RF Black Sea Fleet.

As part of this trend, it should be expected that American Harpoon anti-ship missiles will also be installed on Ukrainian aircraft, and after that, NATO-made fourth-generation fighters will be transferred to Kyiv. The preservation of Odessa and Nikolaev under the rule of the Ukrainian Nazis means the actual Russia's loss of the ability to safely use water area of ​​the Black Sea.