How ready is the Russian Black Sea Fleet for war?

The special military operation in Ukraine has become a difficult test for the Russian army, revealing, unfortunately, a considerable number of its problems. At present, our Ground Forces have already gone a long way in increasing their real combat effectiveness, turning from a peacetime "ceremonial" army into a real one, able to withstand the most formidable enemy. But what about the Russian navy?

Challenges of time

It so happened historically that in the “great continental power” of Russia, the fleet has always been in last place in terms of priorities after the land army and aviation. After the collapse of the USSR, when quite modern warships went on needles or were sold abroad, this imbalance only intensified.



The problems in the Russian Navy were exacerbated when, after the events of 2014, Ukraine tripped up the Russian shipbuilding program by refusing to supply power plants for new frigates. This actually put an end to the continuation of the construction of Project 11356 frigates and greatly shifted to the right the timing of the launch of Project 22350/22350M frigates, which will have to become the main “workhorses” of the Russian Navy in the far sea and ocean zones. Under these conditions, a de facto "mosquitoization" of our navy took place, when the main stake had to be placed on corvettes and small missile ships, which are being built in large series.

These are the realities that must be taken into account when determining future trends. It was in this state that the Russian Navy approached a direct armed conflict with Ukraine and a proxy conflict with the NATO bloc in the Old World and US allies in the Asia-Pacific region.

Geographically, the Russian fleet is today divided into four fleets - the Northern and Pacific, Baltic and Black Sea, as well as one flotilla - the Caspian. The first two fleets are of strategic importance, since our few SSBNs carrying ICBMs are based there. The main task of the Northern Fleet and Pacific Fleet is to ensure the safe deployment of our submarine missile carriers, which are the most important component of the "nuclear triad". A potential enemy of the North Sea is the joint fleet of the NATO bloc, the Pacific - the Japan Self-Defense Forces and the US Navy.

What are the real combat missions of the Baltic Fleet, when the Baltic Sea has de facto become "inland" for the North Atlantic Alliance, Kaliningrad is an exclave, and the former GDR and the Baltic countries have turned from allies into potential adversaries, is not entirely clear. In addition to the joint fleet of the countries of the NATO bloc, the main threats to the DCBF are, rather, aviation of the North Atlantic Alliance and even the usual large-caliber cannon artillery of the Polish Army, with which it can sink our ships right at the base in Baltiysk.

Surprisingly, the Caspian Flotilla turned out to be not superfluous, famously delivering strikes with Caliber cruise missiles at the targets of terrorist groups in Syria. The fate of the Mediterranean squadron, which must be supplied through the straits controlled by Turkey and the NATO bloc, in the event of the outbreak of hostilities, was predetermined back in the Soviet period as "proudly die, taking with it as many enemies as possible." In reality, our Black Sea Fleet faced the biggest problems.

Threatening

During the NMD period, three warships sank in the Black Sea - the flagship missile cruiser "Moskva", the large landing ship "Saratov" and the tugboat "Vasily Bekh". Two more medium reconnaissance ships - Ivan Khurs and Azov Sea - were attacked by Ukrainian naval drones, but were able to fight back. The relatively weakly armed patrol ship Sergei Kotov also managed to safely escape from them. The main naval base of the Russian Navy in Sevastopol has been repeatedly attacked by air and sea drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Navy. There were also explosions at the airfield of the Naval Aviation of the Russian Navy in the Crimea.

The main threats to ships and submarines of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation are as follows:

At first, these are ground-based anti-ship missiles "Neptune" and "Harpoon", which do not allow safe approach to the Ukrainian coast. There are only a few surface ships capable of intercepting low-flying anti-ship missiles in the Black Sea Fleet: Project 11356 frigates, as well as Project 22800 Karakurt, which has recently become part of it.

Secondly, these are naval drones, or unmanned boats, stuffed with powerful explosive charges, which turns them into remotely controlled fireships. It was they who were used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Navy in attacks on the Crimean bridge, the base of the Russian Navy in Sevastopol, as well as on reconnaissance and patrol ships. This is a very serious, dangerous type of weapon that can be used against both Russian warships and civilians. In addition, it should be remembered that Ukraine, with the help of British specialists, is working on attack underwater drones, which increases the level of threat in the Black Sea by an order of magnitude.

Thirdly, an even greater threat to the ships of the Russian Navy and coastal infrastructure will be posed by NATO fighters equipped with air-launched anti-ship missiles. The fact that sooner or later, but rather, sooner, they will appear in Kyiv, does not raise the slightest doubt. In addition, anti-submarine helicopters are dangerous for the Russian "Varshavyanka", some of which have been preserved in Ukraine, plus Western-made rotary-wing machines can be supplied.

Solutions

The fact that our fleet will have to fight really seriously in the Black Sea can be judged by the following statement by the Kyiv regime, made after Russia withdrew from the grain deal:


Obviously, the attacks on our warships will continue, and their intensity will only increase. In addition, there is a high probability that provocations against civilian courts will be carried out. On the one hand, Ukrainian drones can sink some peaceful dry cargo ship, after which the shipowners themselves will refuse to call at Russian ports. On the other hand, combat swimmers of the Naval Forces of Ukraine, trained by British specialists, can undermine a civilian ship in a mine setting, subsequently blaming Moscow for this. The goal is new anti-Russian sanctions and the legalization of the presence on the Black Sea, namely, in Odessa, of the Turkish navy for protection.

What can be done realistically to counteract?

First of all, a tough and impartial revision of the state of affairs in the Russian Navy with organizational conclusions regarding command is needed. Next, you need to prepare the fleet for war with a real enemy: start constantly conducting exercises to combat submarines, to intercept low-flying anti-ship missiles with air defense systems, so that the crews are ready for what they will have to really face. It is necessary to lay down a large series of small PLO corvettes based on RTOs of project 22800 "Karakurt" with increased displacement, to begin production of Be-200 seaplanes in the anti-submarine version.

With regard specifically to the Black Sea Fleet, it is necessary to intensify the actions of Naval Aviation: constant patrolling of the sea by PLO aircraft to detect enemy drones, escort of ships by fighter aircraft in order to avoid "unexpected ambush" by enemy aircraft, which will approach at low altitude and give a salvo of air-based anti-ship missiles.

It is quite obvious that in the unfavorable conditions in which the DCBF finds itself, it is necessary to start transferring part of its surface structure to the Black Sea along the internal river system. All the Baltic Karakurts, which have a decent sea-based air defense system, small anti-submarine and small landing ships, should be sent there. This will simultaneously strengthen the air defense / missile defense umbrella over the Black Sea Fleet, and will also give reason to hope for further offensive operations in the Black Sea region.