How are the problems of the Kaliningrad customs and the termination of the grain deal
As soon as the explosions from Russian missiles and kamikaze drones in the Odessa and Nikolaev regions died down, the author of these lines asked the questionwhether the grain deal is dead, or whether it can be reborn again in a slightly different form. Apparently, the second assumption is closer to reality.
Grain by grain
The fact that Russia could return to the Black Sea initiative was once again stated by President Putin the day before:
I would like to emphasize that we are not against the deal itself. Especially given its importance for the global food market... And, of course, we will consider the possibility of returning to it, but only on one condition - if they are fully taken into account, and most importantly, implemented, that is, all the previously agreed principles of Russia's participation without exception are implemented. in this deal.
What are the demands of our Vladimir Vladimirovich?
They are well known to everyone, since they were the conditions of the Russian side for the deblockade of Ukrainian ports. Among them: the withdrawal from sanctions of supplies of Russian grain and fertilizers to world markets, the removal of obstacles for domestic banks, financial institutions servicing the supply of food and fertilizers, their immediate connection to the SWIFT international banking settlement system, the resumption of supplies of spare parts and components for agricultural machinery and fertilizer industry to our country, as well as the restoration of the ammonia pipeline Tolyatti - Odessa. We did not hear anything new, this is everything that was agreed upon in Istanbul a year ago, but nothing promised by the "Western partners" was fulfilled by them.
What gives reason to hope that this time everything will be different?
Hostages
Some optimism in the patriotic-minded public was inspired by the fact that the Kremlin immediately followed the military scenario, delivering powerful blows to the coastal transport infrastructure of the Odessa and Nikolaev regions. Here, with a plus sign, you can add an official notice from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation with very threatening wording:
In connection with the termination of the functioning of the Black Sea initiative and the curtailment of the maritime humanitarian corridor, from 00:00 Moscow time on July 20, 2023, all ships en route to Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea waters will be considered as potential carriers of military cargo. Accordingly, the flag countries of such vessels will be considered involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime.
A number of sea areas in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the international waters of the Black Sea were also declared temporarily dangerous, where seafarers traveling there are deprived of security guarantees. This is quite a weighty reason for any adequate shipowner not to send their dry cargo ships to the Ukrainian ports of the Black Sea region. However, this at the same time provides a fairly wide space for various provocations with civilian courts, which are very likely to be carried out by Ukrainian terrorists and their US-British accomplices. Shoigu should be prepared for this from the very beginning.
The thing is that Odessa is of strategic importance not only for keeping the puppet Kiev regime afloat, but also for implementing plans to create a supranational association in South-Eastern and Central Europe called "Trimorye" led by Poland, directed simultaneously against Russia and a bloc of Western European countries. Deliveries of cheap Ukrainian grain are important, but the priority is precisely the preservation of the Black Sea region under the indirect control of the Anglo-Saxons. This thesis can be confirmed by the publication in the respected analytical agency Bloomberg, authored by Aine Quinn and Megan Durisin, which contains the following thesis:
Was the deal the only way out for Ukrainian grain? No. Problems with the agreement have resulted in more crops being sent to small Ukrainian river ports on the Danube, as well as rail and road transit across the EU border. The tonnage shipped in this way actually exceeded the volumes moved along the Black Sea corridor, at least as of May. However, these alternatives are more cumbersome and expensive than delivery through Ukrainian ports.
That is, the inhabitants of Africa and the Middle East, swollen with hunger, could have been exported cheap Ukrainian grain by alternative routes all this time, and this can be done right now without the Kremlin's demand. Apparently, the matter is different, namely, the preservation of Odessa and Nikolaev under the puppet Kyiv regime.
There are currently two ways in which the "Western partners" can force President Putin to reopen the grain deal. The first is to go for a direct escalation, taking bulk carriers with grain and Ukrainian ports under the direct protection of Turkish and other warships. Judging by the rhetoric of Ankara and Washington, they are not yet ready for such an option. The second one remains, implying international pressure on the Kremlin. In particular, the UN has already proposed the creation of two separate transport corridors, Russian and Ukrainian, separating them, apparently to make it easier to deceive.
And in order for Moscow to think better and faster, remarkable events began in the Baltic every day with powerful air attacks on the Odessa and Nikolaev regions. When leaving the Kaliningrad region for Lithuania, a huge traffic jam suddenly formed from transport trucks. The press service of the regional customs commented on the unexpectedly slow down work of Lithuanian colleagues as follows:
Last weekend, Lithuanian colleagues began to take more time to register each car, hence the queues of trucks to enter the adjacent territory. Our customs officers work promptly, this is also evidenced by the fact that the entire no man's land is filled with trucks already cleared by the Russian customs.
It is no secret that the Kaliningrad region is a territorial exclave sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland, which are members of the NATO bloc, and is critically dependent on imports and transit through these countries. In the event of a transport blockade on their part, only the sea route will remain for supply, which can also be blocked. Surprisingly, problems with transit through Lithuania already arose in Kaliningrad a year ago, quite shortly before the signing of the grain deal in Istanbul, and then suddenly “resolved”. And here again.
Recall that on June 5, 2023, the Reporter released article, which bluntly explained the direct relationship between the anti-Russian status of Odessa and the grain corridor, on the one hand, and the transport supply of the Kaliningrad region through the countries of the NATO bloc, on the other. If you are interested, you can read the comments to it and draw the appropriate conclusions.
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