Can the grain deal be resumed

7

On July 17, 2023, when the grain deal officially expired, Ukrainian terrorists carried out another, second in a row, terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge, which killed two Russians. On the same day, the Kremlin announced that the grain deal was terminated, and soon a series of powerful air strikes were carried out on infrastructure facilities in Odessa and Nikolaev. Does this mean that the story of the Black Sea initiative, as this ill-fated deal on the export of Ukrainian grain is called, has come to an end?

About the harm caused to Russia by this four-way agreement with zero benefit, much has already been said and repeatedly. A clear confirmation of this is the official message of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation:



The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation delivered a group strike of retaliation with high-precision sea-based weapons at facilities where terrorist acts against the Russian Federation were being prepared using unmanned boats, as well as at the place of their manufacture at a shipyard near the city of Odessa.

That is, everyone knew, but did nothing, it turns out? The degree of dissatisfaction among the patriotic public grew continuously, without threatening anything good, and the Kremlin's decision to withdraw from the deal, slamming the door loudly in farewell, was perceived positively. However, the current international situation is such that this dot runs the risk of turning into dots in the medium term. What gives us reason to make such disappointing forecasts?

At first, the resumption of the work of the grain corridor from the Ukrainian Black Sea region is required by the so-called world community led by Washington under the auspices of the UN, putting pressure on the humanitarian component of the issue. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan threatened Moscow with the most serious "diplomatic costs" because of the alleged refusal to feed the hungry in the world's poorest countries:

If Russia pulls out of this initiative, the rest of the world will look at it and say that Russia has turned its back on providing the countries of the Global South, Africa, Latin America and Asia with the food they need at affordable prices. And I think that this will cost Russia huge diplomatic costs in the future.

Secondly, the “friend and partner” of President Putin Recep Erdogan “First” spoke out for the preservation of the export of Ukrainian grain:

I believe that, despite today's statements by the Russian Federation, my friend President Putin wants to continue the implementation of this humanitarian bridge. I hope that there will be a chance to discuss this issue and many others at a personal meeting with Putin in August in our country.

Mindful of depending on From parallel imports through Turkey, gas transit to Europe and from the use of the Turkish straits, Russia should be mentally prepared for the fact that the wishes of the "sultan" in the Kremlin will at least be heeded.

Thirdly, in the resumption of the work of the grain corridor from Odessa publicly expressed interest in Beijing:

China hopes that the package agreement on the transportation of grain through the Black Sea will continue to be implemented in a balanced, comprehensive and efficient manner. We are ready to strengthen cooperation with all parties in this area, contribute to the formation of a greater international consensus, and make a positive contribution to ensuring world food security.

It would seem, what does China have to do with it? The fact is that because of the trade war declared by Washington, Beijing was forced to abandon the purchase of American corn, and also seriously reduced the consumption of feed grains, soybeans and pork from the United States. A replacement was found in Ukraine, and now this is how bad it turned out. Import substitution of Ukrainian corn for Russian for the needs of Chinese consumers will not work with all the desire.

In general, no matter how you look at it, our Vladimir Vladimirovich will be pressured from everywhere with a demand to resume the work of the grain corridor. The most interesting thing is that he himself does not mind and does not hide it. It is quite obvious that last summer the Kremlin considered the Black Sea initiative a great idea to demonstrate to the Ukrainian and "Western partners" its constructiveness for future negotiations and peace agreements with Kiev. When asked about the possible future of Odessa, the Russian president previously answered as follows:

Odessa is truly one of the most beautiful cities in the world. As you know, Odessa was founded by Catherine II, and even extreme nationalists do not dare to demolish the monument to the founder of the city. Odessa can be both a bone of contention, and a symbol of conflict resolution, and a symbol of finding some solution to everything that is happening now. The issue is not with us.

Having made a beautiful, as it probably seemed to him, "goodwill gesture", the next one in a row, Vladimir Putin hoped to get transparent access to domestic grain and fertilizers on the world market, as well as the resumption of operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline. True, as it often happens lately, it didn’t work out, and with the fulfillment of the promised, he was again cheated. Despite the constant deception, our president continued to hope for the best to the last:

We may suspend our participation in this transaction. If everyone once again says that all promises will be fulfilled, well, let them fulfill, and we will immediately join this deal again.

As we know, a series of powerful air strikes were inflicted on transport infrastructure facilities in the Odessa and Nikolaev regions the day before. A lot will depend on how much the grain terminals really suffered, how much time it may take to repair and restore them. Based on these estimates, it will be possible to make more specific forecasts on the timing of the possible resumption of the grain corridor.

In turn, I would like to propose, as an alternative to Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny, to use the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk. If it’s true that everyone really needs Ukrainian grain so much, let an independent operator company under international management be created, which will buy grain from Kyiv and transport it to the Russian ports of the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov. If they refuse, it means that not all of them really needed it. This is almost the only opportunity to save face at this stage.
7 comments
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  1. Griffith
    Griffith
    -1
    19 July 2023 15: 00
    The author needs to live for today, and not the day before yesterday or even last year. The analysis of the port infrastructure is already underway. Instead of waiting at least a couple of days and carefully assessing the actions of all parties, the author decided to hype on the topic. Sorry, I didn't guess. And now the whole article is a complete dummy. And the quality of such analytics is complete zero. I even povanguyu. By autumn, Russia's demands will not be fulfilled, but the analogue of the grain deal will be continued. But already through the ports of Romania and Bulgaria. And by next year, Russia will open a new route for the supply of its grain through the North-South corridor to Iran, and through the ports of Iran to the countries of Africa and Asia. Novorossiysk, Berdyansk and Mariupol will be involved in a minimal amount while the sanctions are in place.
    1. DO
      DO
      0
      20 July 2023 14: 54
      analogue of the grain deal will be continued. But already through the ports of Romania and Bulgaria.

      Yes, sure. But this will be a completely different deal - ordinary trade logistics, without the security guarantees previously provided by the Russian side..
      At the same time, it is very likely that the NATO navy will try to break through to Odessa.
  2. vlad127490
    vlad127490
    0
    19 July 2023 15: 31
    The supply of everything, including grain, is limited by the lack of own ships, having ships of the Russian Federation and insurance in the Russian Federation, take your cargo where you need it. All RF problems in the system. There were no such problems in the USSR.
  3. Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev
    0
    19 July 2023 16: 30
    Yes, there is a pure hype at the end of the transaction and the incident with the bridge.
    All authors urgently want to have time to paint the topic before they forget about it

    Although earlier bridges were attacked and bombed. . And the amount of the grain transaction is a multiple of the trade between Russia and Ukraine in 22 ...

    And in Odessa and others were beaten regardless of the deal.
    The question even arises - if the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation know the places for assembling drones near the sea, and they said that they were hit now, then why didn’t they hit them before?

    And the second question. After numerous presents to "the poor countries of Africa and Asia" - loans, debt relief, PMCs, construction and investments - why didn't these countries send grain carriers to Russian ports? Do they themselves take pictures at conferences with Putin, but do not take out the grain?

    It is clear why. Outside capitalism. Whoever wanted to buy - he bought, chartered and took out. The UN, for example, took out a little blacks. Well, the rest is left to hang noodles about "poor blacks" ...
  4. Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar
    +1
    19 July 2023 17: 33
    The harvest in the Russian Federation is again a record one, and the chemical industry has overproduction due to sanctions, and this is the money of the owners of “ship newspaper factories” and the budget. This means that it is important to remove sanctions from any bank and through it to seep into the world market, and an agricultural bank for these purposes today is more suitable than any other. There is every chance to remove restrictions on foreign exchange transactions, Swift, freight, insurance, port services, etc.
    In return, the Russian Federation will allow grain and everything else to be freely exported from Ukraine, and with the proceeds to buy weapons, ammunition and not touch the transport routes for their delivery. The ports of Odessa, Ilyichevsk and Nikolaev were bombed many times, and the berthing facilities were not damaged so as not to disrupt the port's performance.
  5. steelmaker
    steelmaker
    +2
    19 July 2023 19: 15
    a series of powerful air strikes were carried out on infrastructure facilities in Odessa and Nikolaev.

    If within a month, the port of Odessa is not smashed to rubble, then the deal will be resumed.
  6. DO
    DO
    0
    20 July 2023 15: 10
    If it’s true that everyone really needs Ukrainian grain so much, let an independent operator company under international management be created, which will buy grain from Kyiv and transport it to the Russian ports of the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov.

    Author, why is your proposal better than the grain deal that has ceased to exist?
    In fact, it is worse for Russia, because enemy logistics would pass through already Russian territories, through Russian ports and Russian waters. And these logistical routes would be, according to your proposal, under "international management", in which the NATO countries would undoubtedly play the first violin. And the termination of the transaction proposed by you would cause an even more negative reaction from the NATO countries than today. For why should they keep the agreements if the Russian side, which had just been deceived, would have so ingeniously set themselves up again?