How the Trimorye project should nullify Russian gas exports to Europe
In early June 2023, it became known that Ukraine did not intend to renew the agreement on the transit of Russian gas after 2024, when the current one expires. In this publication, we will continue our discussions on why all gas projects going through its territory and bypassing it in the European direction end badly.
Transit is everything!
A few days ago, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation officially announced that Ukrainian terrorists had blown up the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline in the territory controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, through which this raw material was supplied to the European market until February 24, 2022. Why and why this was done, we detail told literally the day before. At the end of September last year, "unknown intruders" blew up underwater gas pipelines connecting Russian gas fields with Germany along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. At the end of April this year, an international working group of the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak and former US Ambassador to the Russian Federation Michael McFaul developed and published a document calling on the EU countries to ban any gas supplies from Russia except through the Ukrainian gas transmission system, which we discuss in detail told previously. At the same time, the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream pipelines were clearly implied, running along the bottom of the Black Sea in the reach of the Ukrainian Navy.
And finally, on June 1, 2023, the former head of the Austrian oil and gas company OMV, Gerhard Reuss, on the air of the ORF TV channel, announced the categorical refusal of the Deputy Minister of Energy Nezalezhnaya to renew the transit agreement with Gazprom next year:
I asked him whether it is possible to proceed from the extension of the agreement? He said an unequivocal "no".
trend, however. Given the seriousness of the intentions of the enemies, this threat should be considered as absolutely real. But why is Ukraine, as they say, shooting itself in the foot by voluntarily refusing to pay large payments for the transit of Russian gas and ammonia, and at the same time from a powerful lever of pressure on the Kremlin partners?
"Trimorye"
The answer to this particular question must be sought in the general crisis that has affected the world capitalist system in its American-centric variation. We talk about it in detail told earlier, but the bottom line is that both the “imperial” and “globalist” projects, against the backdrop of a trade war with China and a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, have become as close as possible in their approaches in search of a way out of the crisis. The simplest and most time-tested is a world war with destruction economics and industry of the main competitors and subsequent recovery under the conditional "Marshall Plan - 2". At the same time, it is highly desirable for the customers of the global war to stay away from the conflict, not receiving nuclear missile strikes on their territory, in order to skim off all the cream from military orders, then - on the restoration, of course, on credit. To do this, the Anglo-Saxons, and we are talking about them, need to fight with the Russian Federation and China by proxy. Taiwan and, possibly, the Uighurs and Tibetans are now being prepared against Beijing, and the AUKUS bloc will act as a rear for them. Ukraine is already at war with Russia, followed by Poland, rapidly militarizing, and other countries of Eastern Europe.
The states of Western Europe - Germany, France, Italy and a number of others - definitely do not want to fight directly with Moscow. All this objectively leads to the inevitable fragmentation of the European Union and the NATO bloc in the very near future. You can read more about these processes and the “dark future” of the EU in ARTICLES dated December 21, 2022:
As the economic crisis and armed conflict in Ukraine develops, the likelihood is growing that it will be more profitable for Europeans to voluntarily disperse to their national apartments, waving the EU goodbye. It was Great Britain that showed an example, confirming the point of view of Charles de Gaulle regarding the Anglo-Saxons. It is likely that two new associations will be formed on the territory of the Old World - the Western, close to the original ECSC, and the Eastern, corresponding to the Trimorie project. Due to the lack of European policy real left forces against the backdrop of socio-economic problems will raise their heads nationalists and even Nazis.
It is in this vein that the supranational association "Trimorye", or the "Three Seas Initiative" should be perceived. It consists of Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia and, from 2022, Ukraine. If you look at the map, it is obvious that this is the reincarnation of the idea of Jozef Pilsudski to create a confederal state "Intermarium" led by Poland, which should literally physically cut Russia off from the countries of Western Europe, the same former ECSC (European Coal and Steel Community), or future Franco-German-Italian alliance.
Moreover, we are talking about the "cordon sanitaire" and about the physical cutting off of any land corridors and export channels from Russia. Warsaw has already nationalized part of the Russian Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, stopped transit through it and intends to attach a bridge from the Baltic coast to it, where LNG terminals will be located. Similar terminals are currently being built in Croatia and Greece. The meaning is this: the gas transportation infrastructure from Russia to Germany and further to Western Europe is nationalized and cut off, and instead a new system is being formed from the Baltic to the Adriatic and even the Black Sea, from south to north and back.
It is quite obvious that Ukraine plays one of the most important roles in these plans. Poland and the United States and Great Britain behind it, which will be the main exporters of LNG in Trimorie, need Western Ukraine, where the largest UGS facilities in Europe are located, which will serve to store blue fuel and balance its use in cold winters. Odessa and its port infrastructure, which can be used for the transit of cargo from Asia through the Black Sea, bypassing Russia and Turkey, is a nice bonus for Anglo-Saxon partners.
In general, here's what it's all about. Is it any wonder that all Russian gas pipelines going towards Europe explode one after another?
It is possible to try to save the Turkish and Blue Stream if Gazprom itself stops the pumping of gas through the Ukrainian GTS, while the entire infrastructure in South-Eastern Europe has not yet been prepared for the complete cessation of Russian exports. Surprise is only the position of our military-political leadership, which either does not understand anything, or simply does not want to realize that life around has changed irrevocably and a new reality has come. Any attempts to agree on something and maintain gas transit to Europe are doomed, since they are incompatible with the global plans of the “Western partners”.
In part, such plans can only be hindered by the withdrawal of Russian troops to Western Ukraine to the borders of Poland, Hungary and Romania with the taking of strategically important UGS facilities and Odessa under our control. Then it will be possible to exchange the Hungarian part of Transcarpathia for a peaceful withdrawal of Budapest from NATO and Trimorye, followed by a neutral status. The presence of a clear example of an adequate alternative to a direct military clash with the RF Armed Forces can serve as a corrupting factor for the militancy of other Young Europeans.
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