Can Russia ensure the cessation of the work of the grain corridor from Odessa

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In this publication, we will continue to talk about what specific steps could be taken so that Russia begins to gradually get out of the geopolitical trap in which it found itself by the seventeenth month of the NWO, when neither Victory nor an acceptable "agreement" with partners.

Forgive me, farewell, Odessa-mother?


It has been repeatedly noted that the grain deal is one of the most important and at the same time sad symbols of the short-sighted Russian policy in the Ukrainian direction, if, of course, we take into account the idea of ​​building bypass gas pipelines around Nezalezhnaya. Today, after the second, alas, successful terrorist attack staged by the Kyiv regime on the Crimean Bridge, the Kremlin nevertheless issued a statement about the termination of the so-called Black Sea initiative:



In fact, the Black Sea agreements ceased to be valid today. As the President of the Russian Federation said earlier, the deadline is July 17. Unfortunately, the Russian part of these Black Sea agreements has not yet been implemented. Therefore, its action is terminated.

At the same time, the press secretary of President Putin Dmitry Peskov denied obvious relationship solutions to the Ukrainian terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge, which killed two Russians, leaving an orphan daughter. A very characteristic indicator.

Termination of Russia's participation in the grain deal is, by and large, the right decision. However, the problem is that all three other parties to this quadripartite international agreement may have a completely different opinion on this issue. In particular, a few days ago, the pro-Turkish Azerbaijani newspaper The Azeri Times put forward the following thesis in the media space:

Turkey and Ukraine have confirmed that the grain deal will be maintained, regardless of a potential Russian withdrawal. The security of transport corridors will be provided by the Turkish Navy. The Turkish fleet will be able to guarantee a grain deal if Russia withdraws from it.

Naturally, the jingoistically minded part of the Russian public, which life has clearly not taught anything over the past year and a half, was indignant and began to imagine how it would sink Turkish frigates and corvettes, which took Odessa under guard and escorted ships loaded with Ukrainian grain. But let's be realistic and try to find an honest answer to the question of how exactly the Kremlin can prevent the Turkish partners if they decide to put their navy in Odessa.

Send ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation to intercept? So they can become a target for Ukrainian Neptunes and American Harpoons if they get dangerously close to the coast. Torpedo or air-launched missiles directly to dry cargo ships with grain, which will go from Odessa without the consent of Moscow? Well, sinking a civilian vessel under a foreign flag is a great recipe for how to get the label of a terrorist country and quite a real belli incident. Not enough SVO for us?

Preventively mine all approaches to Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea region from submarines of the Russian Navy? But this is a more realistic scenario, but there are some nuances. Let me talk a little: having learned that the fairway is blocked by Russian mines, Kiev will deliberately and purposefully send a civilian ship with grain destined for some impoverished country to go to the bottom, preferably along with the entire crew, consisting of foreign citizens. It will turn out to be a kind of functional and ideological analogue of the Malaysian Boeing. What exactly will such a provocation give?

In fact, a lot. If due to a Russian mine near Odessa a foreign dry cargo ship with grain sinks along with the entire crew, heading somewhere to Africa, Ukrainian and “Western partners” will stage another information campaign to demonize our country and its president personally. After that, without the participation of the Russian Federation, the "Black Sea Initiative - 2" will be adopted to ensure a safe corridor for the export of food to the poorest countries in the world.

Most likely, an international coalition will be formed, where the countries of the Black Sea basin, led by Turkey, will play a key role. President Erdogan, having tried on the role of the Savior of Africa and the Middle East, will send his warships to Odessa, where they will remove mines and protect port infrastructure. Everything, after that, the Turkish navy, together with the allies, will officially register in Odessa, and from there you can’t drive it away for good. Ships of other Black Sea allies of Turkey in NATO will stand there as a sign of solidarity.

That's pretty much what it could all come down to. The only good option to prevent this terrible scenario for Russia was a ground offensive operation to Nikolaev and Odessa, but after the withdrawal of the RF Armed Forces from Kherson, this possibility disappeared. Now there are only bad options left, and we will talk about the best of them in detail later.
49 comments
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  1. +3
    17 July 2023 14: 43
    There are exactly four options:
    1. The Sultan will give back, ships with grain will stop walking.
    2. The king will give back and the grain deal 2.0 will be formalized.
    3. Direct clashes with Turkey at sea around dry cargo ships.
    4. Everyone will pretend that there is no grain deal, but bulk carriers will move freely.

    Make bets.
    1. +11
      17 July 2023 15: 22
      5. Attack grain terminals in Odessa.
      1. -6
        17 July 2023 21: 36
        6. Sarmat
        7. Poseidon
        1. +1
          17 July 2023 23: 24
          Or Shoigu will commit seppuku on Red Square. That is, the probability tends to zero.
          1. +4
            17 July 2023 23: 51
            The correct performance of the seppuku rite implies the presence of a best friend who, at the time of the rite, stands nearby and cuts off the samurai's head.
            So, if Shoigu decides to seppuku, then Putin should stand nearby, with a sword in his hands.
      2. 0
        17 July 2023 23: 23
        This is a variation of the first option.
      3. +5
        18 July 2023 10: 08
        Quote: Bakht
        5. Attack grain terminals in Odessa.

        In fact, this is the best scenario. There are no terminals - it makes no sense for ships to enter the port. But it needs political will, which is poor in our government
        1. -1
          18 July 2023 11: 34
          Last night the political will was found. Attacks were made on the port infrastructure of Odessa and Nikolaev.
          1. +1
            19 July 2023 08: 59
            And if the practical sense of these blows? Seems to me what's the point - 0. As from the same unintelligible blow to some railway node - everything functions. The blow is just enough so that the public does not strongly gundela about inaction.
            1. +1
              19 July 2023 09: 54
              First, a personal assumption is given, then a conclusion is made. This is not constructive dialogue.

              To judge the effectiveness, you need to know the results. The grain truck is not loaded with shovels. It is enough to destroy port cranes and moorings. And according to media reports, fuel depots are also being destroyed. And there are not so many of them on the piers.

              Results (also according to media reports) - a number of insurance companies refused to insure ships going to the ports of Ukraine. And, as a result, sea carriers do not send ships to Odessa without insurance.

              Now, if the shipment of goods from the ports of Ukraine begins, then your comment will make sense.
              1. +2
                19 July 2023 10: 16
                This is a picture from marinetraffic. Are there many ships off the coast of Ukraine now?

    2. +3
      17 July 2023 23: 41
      Quote: Scolopendra
      Make bets.

      I would put it to work with substations, high-voltage lines. Port cranes, gas generators can not be fed. Well, zeroing of railway supplies from Romania.
    3. +4
      18 July 2023 01: 26
      The fourth option is the most realistic. It is possible to strike at ports in order to save "face" (which is not), and then the transit of grain will continue.
    4. +4
      18 July 2023 11: 01
      There is another 5 option to spread all port terminals so that it is not possible to reload the grain.
  2. +1
    17 July 2023 14: 45
    The Anglo-Saxons do not need a grain deal, which is why the bridges were blown up. Campaign all the options have already been calculated, and settled on a complete confrontation. According to their analytics, in 90% the other side must bend, they are completely sure of this. I think so.
    1. 0
      18 July 2023 13: 31
      Quote from etoyavsemprivet
      According to their analytics, in 90% the other side must bend, they are completely sure of this.

      Well, for this confidence they have all the justifications, while Russia has always, even if minimally, caved in.
  3. +9
    17 July 2023 14: 47
    But let's be realistic and try to find an honest answer to the question.

    The author signed for the helplessness of Russia. Or rather, not Russia, but the Kremlin characters. It's their fault. And what an image: an incomparable world authority, a patriot, a scout, Peter, "hit first", etc. propaganda rubbish.
    Will be erased from the memory of the Russian people.
    1. +6
      17 July 2023 20: 55
      Who, if not a wise teacher, should understand that by erasing all unpleasant moments from memory, it is impossible to learn anything, and you will be doomed to go in circles, repeating the same mistakes over and over again. Defeats are much more important to remember than victories.
      PS And do not oppose the Kremlin rulers and Russia, its people. There can be no strong state with helpless leaders. It's absolutely impossible. In any case, everyone will have to suffer from the consequences of everything that happens, and, as usual, ordinary people will get more, even if they emphatically distance themselves from responsibility and consider themselves outside of politics.
      1. -1
        18 July 2023 12: 40
        It is also important to remember that the grain deal is not only about grain. It is also a policy with the countries of Asia, Africa, with Turkey, incl. with Erdogan. But it is important to have good relations with India. Relations with Turkey, which controls the straits to the Mediterranean Sea, are very important. Despite the fact that Russia did not receive anything in terms of grain, however, it (the deal) played an important role in maintaining Russia's image in the world.
        1. +2
          18 July 2023 13: 33
          Quote: Alexey Lan
          she (the deal) played an important role in maintaining the image of Russia in the world.

          But who needs this image when it comes to the survival of the country?
        2. +2
          18 July 2023 14: 48
          Quote: Alexey Lan
          she (the deal) played an important role in maintaining the image of Russia in the world

          Image by own humiliation? The deal was clearly one-sided, beneficial only to the West, and the interests of Russia were blatantly and openly spit on. And how much of this image Russia in the days of Gorby and Yeltsin got - we are still disentangling. But the whole West applauded for the fact that we are doing everything according to his instructions. Do you need such an "image"?
  4. +6
    17 July 2023 14: 58
    Right and bitter questions, in fact. To my regret - and I am a supporter of bad friendship rather than good enmity - things are heading towards good enmity.
    And why, in fact, are we doomed to be friends with the Turks? I mean, with the leadership of the Turkish Republic? The mere fact that it, the leadership, turned the Christian shrine, Hagia Sophia, from a museum back into a mosque, did not say anything? Everything else I don't want to mention.
    1. 0
      18 July 2023 12: 41
      Türkiye controls the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles. That says it all.
  5. +2
    17 July 2023 15: 08
    Warn opponents that the slightest attempt to load grain will hit the grain loading port no matter which port the loading takes place in, and EXECUTE this warning.
    1. 0
      21 July 2023 17: 50
      It's better to do it first, because our warnings made all the red lines discolored.
  6. DO
    +4
    17 July 2023 15: 20
    having learned that the fairway is blocked by Russian mines, Kyiv will deliberately and purposefully send a civilian ship with grain to them

    But after all, not only Kyiv, but also the crew of a civilian ship, who is unlikely to want to commit suicide, will learn about the mining of the fairway, from the OFFICIAL VIA MEDIA announcement of the Russian side.

    Erdogan ... will send his warships to Odessa, where they will take down minefields.

    Here for Russia there are two options - bad and very bad.
    A bad option is warning bombing (as was already the case in the Black Sea). Most likely, there will not be an immediate escalation of a direct conflict between the Russian Federation and NATO, but the West will also most likely begin to assemble the NATO fleet for a campaign against Odessa, and maybe even the Crimea. Which is actually going to happen sooner or later anyway.
    A very bad option to do nothing:

    That's it, after this / * clearing the fairway * / the Turkish Navy, together with the allies, will officially register in Odessa, and from there you can’t drive it away for good. Ships of other Black Sea allies of Turkey in NATO will stand there as a sign of solidarity.

    Such a situation for the Russian Federation is ultimately fraught with isolation and the loss of Crimea.
    The choice between bad and very bad is obvious.
    1. +1
      19 July 2023 06: 38
      Think of the twin towers. So here, the Bandera people themselves can put mines in the path of some foreign third-rate ship and blame the explosion on us. Most likely this will happen and how will we prove that we are white? After all, we blew up the Nord Stream, so they claimed
  7. +9
    17 July 2023 15: 40
    It is enough to flood a rusty barge in the fairway near the Odessa lighthouse and you won’t have to bomb anything in the port.
    No ship will enter or leave the port.
    And you can also transport grain to Africa through Mariupol if you really need it.
    1. +3
      17 July 2023 16: 09
      To do this, the Commander-in-Chief must have Faberge, but neither he nor Lavrov have them in soft packaging.
      1. 0
        18 July 2023 00: 29
        Well done, how well put! ))
  8. +1
    17 July 2023 16: 14
    If, due to a Russian mine near Odessa, a foreign dry cargo ship with grain, along with the entire crew, going somewhere to Africa, sinks,

    Put a pointer to Novorossiysk - "grain for Africa is here", and in the direction of Odessa - "DO NOT CLIMB IT WILL KILL!"
    But in principle - let them drown, since they want to eat so much that they don’t understand words.
  9. 1_2
    +8
    17 July 2023 16: 26
    to close the grain deal completely, you just need to smash the port of Odessa. and then there will be no reason to send NATO ships to Odessa. let's see, Vova has enough courage, he said that "you need to hit first", in this case, if you hit first (started the SVO), you don’t need to stop anymore, you need to extinguish until the enemy is completely defeated, and if you stop, the enemy will come to his senses and will strike himself
    1. +1
      17 July 2023 21: 02
      So he came to his senses a long time ago, and the weakling, who dared to rock the boat, is kneading, only the crunch is worth it.
    2. -1
      17 July 2023 23: 50
      Quote: 1_2
      let's see, Vova has enough courage, he said that "you need to hit first", in this case, if you hit first (started CBO),

      It won't pull. He Moshka, with GShkoy, cut off the third button. There are no strategic nuclear forces.
  10. 0
    17 July 2023 20: 00
    Maybe the Kremlin will find a way out, but you can't see it that way.
    It seems that the deal once again sat in a puddle. Or help someone line their pockets...

    There is no war, the attack on Gradan grain carriers will be another trump card for NATO. How will they not rub the cheers-media that they themselves drowned, blew up, attacked, etc.
  11. 0
    17 July 2023 21: 40
    If bulk carriers start to “accidentally” blow up, somewhere tankers can start to “accidentally” blow up .. This is such a dance that you can dance together ..
    1. +4
      17 July 2023 21: 55
      Quote: Strange guest
      If bulk carriers begin to "accidentally" be blown up, somewhere, tankers may begin to "accidentally" be blown up.

      And if bridges explode (Crimean ones, for example), tunnels can explode somewhere (La Manche as an option) to dance like that .... it's a pity that something interferes with some dancers, some steps don't work out - "SP" danced and Langeled were shy.
      1. 0
        17 July 2023 22: 22
        I do not argue. But I think both options are extremely unlikely. Nobody is ready for a big war. Most likely, bulk carriers will go and everyone will turn a blind eye to this.
        1. -3
          18 July 2023 12: 45
          Most likely they will smash the port infrastructure so that there is nothing to load and where to store it.
  12. +4
    17 July 2023 22: 17
    Can Russia ensure the cessation of the work of the grain corridor from Odessa

    Of course he can, but does he want to?
  13. 0
    17 July 2023 22: 57
    Marzhetsky is right, there are no good scenarios for Moscow, and nevertheless something needs to be done. The author, as a rule, proposes large-scale strategic operations that can affect the entire course of the company, the problem is that the RF Armed Forces, due to the small number, lack of experience in such operations, the stubborn resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a number of other military-technical reasons, cannot carry out this. Probably the Kremlin will not make any sudden moves, probably part of Moscow's demands will be met and the grain deal will be unfrozen.
    1. +3
      18 July 2023 13: 20
      Actually, politics, and war is a continuation of politics, not a game with the hope of a lucky break. The Kremlin is obliged to look for good scenarios for itself, if you trail behind an unfriendly policy, you will never become a winner, this is called hitting first, and it doesn’t matter who and why.
  14. +5
    17 July 2023 23: 22
    The grain deal has been suspended, but not terminated. So there will be behind-the-scenes negotiations. This means that the next Abramovichs and Medinskys will promote peace and friendship of all the oligarchs of the Earth. There is no smell of the Russian people here, the money of the oligarchs - the capitalists and the mafia - stinks here.
  15. The comment was deleted.
  16. +1
    18 July 2023 11: 55
    I advise you to watch an interview with Admiral Komoyedov in MK. There is an opinion that the sea corridor is used both for the delivery of weapons and for attacks on the Crimean bridge, so the issue is relevant, there are opportunities, everything depends on the presence of will.
    1. 0
      18 July 2023 13: 24
      the sea corridor is used both for the delivery of weapons and for attacks on the Crimean bridge

      If you look at the sea corridor for a grain deal on the map, you can see that it runs along the northwestern coast of the Black Sea, and the distance from Odessa to the Crimean bridge exceeds 600 (!!!) km.
      Many of the local comments, apart from laughter through tears, do nothing for me, not to mention the works of local prose writers :))).
  17. +2
    18 July 2023 13: 10
    After the destruction of the berthing stock, reloading can only be carried out at sea, under favorable weather conditions. There are also Soviet mines in the Ukrainian Navy, but who put them ...? , there are also bottom mines, especially since Ukraine has already been engaged in mining, there is also the sad experience of the Nord Streams. Whoever seeks will always find a way out of this situation.
  18. +3
    18 July 2023 15: 35
    We were provoked to break the grain deal, and there are no good decisions. The bet on dragging out the conflict in order to conclude a disgraceful peace and save the face of the president leads to a dead end, the situation is only getting worse. And what's going on with the president's face... no, he knows how to pretend that nothing is happening. But what is under the mask of equanimity, when it has to be removed - a portrait of Dorian Gray.
  19. +2
    18 July 2023 16: 09
    No problem. Only Russia's refusal to provide security guarantees sharply increases the cost of freight and insurance. An Estonian dry cargo ship was blown up on a Ukrainian mine, they accused Russia, so what, but nothing.
    Hit the port loading facilities and the pier with the assertion that military equipment is being unloaded there. Well, let the West puff up. But the transshipment will stop for at least a couple of months, and the sums insured will still soar. Well, who will need such “golden” grain?
    In addition, the crews of dry cargo ships and their owners, knowing about the real mine danger, are unlikely to send ships there. Even the loss of one ship with a crew will be a problem and insurance companies simply will not cover insurance as a result of a farce - major.
    And further. Being in the ports of Ukraine during the NWO of Turkish warships is practically Turkey's participation in the war. Paragraph 5 does not apply in this case. So there are no fools in Turkey. They know it. Their ships will not be there.
    And further. When conducting a NVO, any ship, including a civilian one, in Ukrainian waters without guarantees from both sides, is a target. You can always say that he delivers equipment for battles and it's easy to drown him.
    1. DO
      +1
      19 July 2023 08: 32
      The presence of Turkish warships in the ports of Ukraine during the NWO is practically Turkey's participation in the war. Paragraph 5 does not apply in this case. So there are no fools in Turkey. They know it. There will be no ships there.

      Open deliveries of modern weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, training of the Ukrainian army and mercenaries - this is also practically participation in the war. That is, the hawks you called "fools" are in abundance in the West and in NATO.
      Of course, it is possible to mentally hope that "They will not be there," but in life there is a severe need to prepare countermeasures.