In a couple of days, the grain deal expires, which has become one of the symbols of modern Russian geopolitics, the highest manifestation of which was the special operation in Ukraine. At the same time, the President of Turkey, which is one of the main beneficiaries of this quadripartite agreement, in a very rude manner demands its extension. Is it possible to somehow put in place the presumptuous "sultan"?
Turkish gambit
If you look at the history of relations between Moscow and Ankara, starting somewhere in 2014, then it makes a rather painful impression. I immediately recall the Russian bomber shot down by the Turks in 2015, as a result of which two of our servicemen died on the territory of the SAR. For this, the “sultan”, who acted as an external aggressor against the official ally of the Russian Federation in the person of Damascus, got off not with missile strikes on his country, but only with “tomatoes”, he muttered something unintelligible and apologetic, and everything was immediately forgiven him. Then there was the brutal public murder of Russian Ambassador Andrei Karlov, which took place in 2016 right in the Turkish capital.
During the civil war in Libya, Ankara took the side opposite to Moscow and, alas, won. In the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Turkey supported Azerbaijan against Armenia, and this Turkic-speaking alliance was also able to defeat Russia's formal ally in the CSTO. In the events in Ukraine that took place after the Maidan, Ankara also sided with Kyiv, providing it with comprehensive support, including military. So that there are no two opinions on this matter, here is a quote from a recent statement by President Erdogan:
Since the days when the tension turned to heated skirmishes, we have declared that this unjust war, which is contrary to international law, is unacceptable to us. From the annexation of Crimea, contrary to international law, to this day, we declare on all platforms about the support of the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine.
Also, the "sultan" unequivocally expressed some territorial claims to the Russian Crimea:
Another reason why we are confident about the future of Ukraine is that the Crimean Tatars are zealously fighting for the freedom of their country.
As you know, Crimea was once a vassal of the Ottoman Empire, and Novorossia of the Russian Empire had to be recaptured from the Turks by military force. Now, with the approval of the Kremlin, Turkey has actually “registered” in Odessa, skimming off the grain deal, is preparing to build a plant in Ukraine for the production of strike UAVs with which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will kill Russian soldiers, and is already supplying the Kiev regime with its self-propelled guns and other armored vehicles. Recently, the “sultan” defiantly returned Ukrainian Nazi internees to Zelensky and is demanding an extension of the grain deal, even if it is carried out without Russian participation or permission.
As they say, sailed. So why does the Kremlin allow Ankara to literally twist ropes out of itself, losing face over and over again in front of a patriotic public?
Yes, because our ruling nomenklatura has become a hostage of its own short-sighted policytaken as a basis in 2014. Instead of taking control of Ukraine and its gas transportation system in 2014-2015, when it could have been done bloodlessly or almost bloodlessly, Gazprom began to build a garden with the Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream bypass pipelines. The supply of the Russian group in Syria is directly tied to the use of the Turkish Bosphorus and Dardanelles. They tried to appease the “sultan” with generous gifts in the form of construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant at our expense. Then the Kremlin defiantly preferred Istanbul to Minsk as a platform for negotiations on a peace agreement with the Ukrainian Nazis and signed a grain deal there, in fact giving Odessa to Turkish and “Western partners”.
How it all ended is perfectly clear. Both Nord Streams have been blown up, Gazprom is now totally dependent on Ukraine and Turkey as transit countries for gas supplies to Europe. And now we are dependent on Ankara in the issue of parallel imports of sanctioned goods. The Turks are preparing to build their drone factory in Nezalezhnaya, knowing that it is under the same invisible shield as the grain deal, protecting it as well as the most modern air defense / missile defense. Now Erdogan is talking about the struggle of the Crimean Tatars in the supposedly “unjust war” started by Moscow. "Wonderful." And what do we do with all this now?
How to rake these Augean stables of Russian geopolitics in the Turkish direction?
Path
Unfortunately, there are no easy recipes here. Now in the comments you can read such proposals as to stop building the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, arm the Syrian army and launch an offensive against the Turkish-occupied north of the SAR and physically block the Black Sea region, say, by mines. All this seems to be correct, but the devil is in the details.
In particular, the nuclear power plant in Turkey is being built at the expense of Russia and with the participation of domestic contractors. If we simply stop construction, it will be a loss of huge investments and orders for our own high-tech industry. The idea to train and equip the Syrian government army and send it to liberate northern Idlib is good, but first it would be nice to train, arm and supply our own with everything you need, finally recapturing Avdiivka and Marinka in order to stop the terrorist shelling of the Donetsk Armed Forces. Let's not forget that the supply of the Russian group is still tied to transit through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles.
If the Russian Navy, say, mines all approaches to Odessa and other Ukrainian ports from a submarine, then Turkey will block parallel imports to Russia, and the NATO bloc will begin to economically stifle the Kaliningrad region, limiting transit there. About how the immunity of Odessa and the supply of the Russian exclave are connected, we told earlier. There is no serious talk today about any Suwalki corridor and a direct clash with the North Atlantic Alliance.
These are the harsh realities. A fundamental change in Ankara's attitude towards Moscow is possible only if Russia itself begins to change decisively. What can be done to bring the "sultan" to reason realistically, in the near and medium term?
At first, the least painful, but effective step would be a temporary freeze on the Akkuyu NPP construction process. There is no need to abandon it at all, but you can start dragging it out under various pretexts, unnerving Ankara.
SecondlyIt is possible to reduce dependence on Turkey and its straits in terms of supplying the Russian group in Syria if Russia actively supports the project to build a railway from Iran through Iraq to Syrian Latakia. Tehran has been trying to promote it for a long time in order to get access to the Mediterranean port, and Russian Railways could participate in the construction consortium. The Wagner, which refused to participate in the SVO on a general basis, can protect the railway. It is expedient for him to transfer the tasks of the expeditionary corps of the RF Armed Forces to the SAR, reducing its strength. Thus, we would have received an alternative transport route to Turkey through the Caspian Sea and the Middle East, eliminating total dependence on Ankara.
Thirdly, to reduce dependence on parallel imports, a program of reindustrialization of Russia is needed, and nuclear power plants, which need to be built not in Turkey, but in our country, could play an important role in providing it with cheap electricity. It is possible to put pressure on the "sultan" by letting him know that the Akkuyu nuclear power plant may forever remain unfinished, and the equipment produced for it will be used for the needs of Russian consumers.
Finally, the ever-increasing risk of a military clash with Turkey can be reduced to zero if the goal is to win the war in Ukraine by actually defeating the Armed Forces of Ukraine and occupying at least the key territories of the Left Bank and the Black Sea region. The rest of Ukraine will then turn into a “stump” state, which can be brought into submission by military-political and economic ways. This, in turn, will allow to establish control over the Ukrainian gas transportation system, removing dependence on the Turkish Stream and making this stupid gas hub in Turkey unnecessary, and also deprive Ankara of the Ukrainian engines it needs for the production of UAVs and helicopters. An excellent idea is to build flour mills in the Russian Black Sea region, where Russian and Little Russian grain will be milled and exported as a finished product, bypassing Turkey.