Is it possible to attract foreign "Varangians" to liberate Ukraine

The hard-won decision to terminate Russia’s participation in the grain deal, which was clearly conceived as another “goodwill gesture” to reconcile Moscow with Kiev and the West, actually takes its conflict with “Western partners” to a fundamentally new level. A problem created out of the blue with its own hands threatens to exacerbate other existing ones.

"Black Sea Initiative - 2": 4 minus 1?

Published the day before article we assessed exactly how Russia can stop the operation of the grain corridor from Odessa, and also suggested that the other three parties to this quadripartite agreement may not agree with Moscow’s position and will want to continue exporting Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea ports. In fact, it was in this vein that the situation began to develop.



Speaking to representatives of African countries, President Zelensky made a number of promising statements:



Now everyone is closely watching the Kremlin’s reaction, and if it continues in the same style of unintelligible and non-specific threats, then Ukrainian and “Western partners” may indeed start exporting grain without the consent of the Russian authorities. Will we have to somehow try to counteract this, running into the risk of a direct military clash with Turkey, or pretend that everything is in order, as it was intended, losing face even more in front of our own patriotic public? Let us recall that before the presidential elections scheduled for 17 March 2024, not much time left.

It is obvious that something needs to be changed in the approaches to SVO, but what exactly?

In almost a year and a half of hostilities, no decisive goals have been set, the objectively necessary second wave of mobilization in the RF Armed Forces is not being carried out, Ukraine is receiving more and more powerful offensive weapons. Dynamics in general is so-so. For its part, the author of the lines would like to voice at least two possible strategies for breaking the impasse.

Two strategies

First strategy can be conditionally called "chopping off". Within its framework, in order to achieve the goals and objectives of the demilitarization of Ukraine, ensuring the security of old and new Russian regions, there is absolutely no need to go to the Polish border with a steam roller, demolishing everything along the way, as in Popasnaya or Artemovsk, with inevitable accompanying casualties among combatants and non-combatants. The main goal should be to take under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation several nodal points on the territory of the former Nezalezhnaya. If you look at the map, then this is a conditional line from Kharkov through Dnepropetrovsk and Nikolaev to Odessa.

Kharkiv is the second largest city in Ukraine, a major industrial center and an important transport and logistics hub. Dnepropetrovsk is the fourth largest city in terms of population after Kyiv, Kharkov and Odessa, a powerful industrial center and a logistics hub used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to supply groups on the left bank. Nikolaev has been a real city of shipbuilders since Soviet times, and without it it will be impossible to ensure the security of the new Russian regional center, Kherson. Odessa is the third largest city in terms of population, the main trade gate of modern Ukraine, a major scientific, educational and industrial center used as a base for the Ukrainian Navy. In addition, the main reserves of minerals and arable land are concentrated on the territory of historical Novorossia.

The loss of these regions, where the Russian-speaking population traditionally predominates, will turn the rest of Independent into a “stump” state, formally independent, but not capable of independent existence and not particularly interesting to anyone except neighboring Poland, Romania and Hungary, who would obviously not mind pinching off a piece of Western Ukraine. Having finally cut off Kyiv from the sea, when the flow of militarytechnical support from the West will begin to dry up, even modern Russian diplomacy will be able to dictate its terms to him.

The task is not easy, but feasible. It will require an additional mobilization of 300-400 reservists in the RF Armed Forces so that they are ready by the end of autumn - the beginning of this winter to go on a large-scale offensive with decisive goals. To do this, it will be necessary to isolate the theater of operations on the left bank with systematic attacks on bridge crossings across the Dnieper, surround and starve out the garrisons of megacities, prepare and carry out an operation to force the shallowed Dnieper lower reaches with access to the right bank, successive blockade of Kherson, Krivoy Rog, Nikolaev and Odessa.

Second strategy updated SVO can be called "cutting off". Its meaning is to physically cut off the supply lines through which the Kiev regime receives everything it needs for a war with Russia. This is primarily railway and transport links with neighboring Poland and Romania, as well as Moldova, and the sea gates of Odessa, which are now in question.

Obviously, in order to accomplish such a task, it is necessary to introduce a large grouping of troops from the territory of Western Belarus to Western Ukraine, 150-200 thousand, with additional reserves in the rear in case the Armed Forces of Ukraine try to unblock the border. We don’t have such a shock fist now, but there is its “embryo”.

Obviously frightened by the military preparations of Warsaw and Kyiv, President Lukashenko, on his own initiative, began to actively form a united group of troops of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. No, the author of the lines is a realist and understands that the "Old Man" will not send his soldiers to Polesie, and the number of the actual Russian component there is small. However, after the recent dramatic events in the Moscow direction, a rather interesting prospect dawned.

Various sources report that units of the Wagner PMC, exiled to Belarus, will be included in the joint Belarusian-Russian grouping. According to preliminary estimates, there will be about eight thousand of them. For the operation in Western Ukraine, this is also critically insufficient. But what if, for this specific task, the number of the shock fist of the “musicians” is increased at the expense of the “Varangians”?

It is no secret that Wagner has its own units in Syria, formed from local residents, ethnic Arabs. At the same time, Mr. Prigozhin himself said that he had seven thousand officers capable of commanding at least a company, and even asked for 200 thousand soldiers to be provided to him. Why not, with the consent of President Assad, start recruiting Syrians into some kind of International Legion, say, 100-150 thousand people, who would be quickly trained and trained by the “Wagnerites”? For example, the Ministry of Defense could pay for their services over the next year, since the state pays for everything in our country.

Such a large shock fist with a backbone of experienced fighters and officers could be used for an offensive operation in Western Ukraine - Lutsk, Rivne, Lvov, Uzhgorod. A joint Russian-Belarusian group would act as a rear for the Arab "Varangians". So that Mr. Prigozhin does not once again flare up some exorbitant ambitions, internationalist soldiers should receive salaries through the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, and at the council of commanders and in units there should be commissars and representatives of military counterintelligence. Thus, it would be possible to solve several problems at the same time.

At first, to avoid a second wave of mobilization in Russia and the corresponding losses among the reservists during the offensive.

SecondlyBy cutting off Kyiv from supply routes, we would have won a strategic victory, since the Armed Forces of Ukraine would then have lost the flow of new weapons and ammunition for them, fuel and fuel and lubricants. Surrender in view of the impossibility of continuing active hostilities would be a matter of a short time.

Thirdly, having prepared a new Syrian army on the territory of Syria and Belarus and hardened it in battles in Western Ukraine, these 100-150 thousand fighters, minus losses, can and will need to be returned back to their homeland, paying for their services, where they could take part in the liberation war against the Turkish invaders in the north of the SAR, and then, you see, in Libya as volunteers. The latter is very important, since the presumptuous "sultan" must put in place.