What are the market prospects for the Tu-204/214 airliner, which is much cheaper than the MS-21

July 6 2023 26

About a week ago, the well-known specialized publication Kommersant published one newswhich caused a great public outcry. According to him, the promising Russian medium-haul airliner MS-21 is offered for sale much higher than the market value of its direct competitors in the face of Airbus A320 / A321 and Boeing 737-800 and MAX. What is it, the domestic aircraft manufacturer's abuse of its market position, or are other factors playing their role?

But yours!

With pricing in the aviation industry market, everything is not quite simple. There is a so-called catalog price, which for the Airbus A320/A321 and Boeing 737-800 and MAX models ranges from $100 to $105 million, but there is also a market price of about $50 million. Such a significant discount is provided by a large order, which can only be afforded by a serious air carrier. In some cases, if the aircraft is made under the personal order of some Arab sheikh or the president of a banana republic, its cost may be much higher than the catalog price.

So, according to Kommersant, in 2021, for the Russian MS-21, equipped with American Pratt & Whitney engines, they asked for from 58 to 68 million dollars. The medium-haul airliner was supposed to be sold in 2022-2024, but due to sanctions, the power plant from the United States became unavailable, and therefore the deadlines were shifted. In December 2022 - January 2023, the State Transport Leasing Company offered air carriers to purchase a promising MS-21 at a price of 50 to 54 million apiece. The deadlines for completing the order were set for 2028-2030. Why, then, is a domestic aircraft, which should be as import-substituting as possible and not depend on foreign components purchased for foreign currency, noticeably more expensive than Western competitors at a market price?

The answer lies on the surface. Unlike the Airbus A320/A321 or the Boeing 737-800, the MS-21 has not even been put on the assembly line yet. When it begins to be mass-produced by the end of the decade, these volumes will be small at first, increasing year by year. The need to hastily substitute imports for a huge number of components, including "black wings", also could not lead to a cheaper project, rather the opposite. The same is true for its power plant, since the PD-14 is not yet produced in large batches. Well, the desire of Irkut to earn extra money on the domestic market that has become empty due to sanctions should not be forgotten.

Everything is natural. The MS-21 will be able to really reveal its potential in about 10 years. These are the realities.

Carcass

Meanwhile, all this time Russia had its own quite suitable medium-haul aircraft, which was undeservedly pushed into a corner. This is a family of Tupolev Tu-204/214 liners, which are in the same market segment as the MS-21.

I would like to remind you that we raised the issue of the need to "renovate" the Tu-204/214 liner back in ARTICLES dated December 26, 2021. The aircraft is reliable and, unlike the MS-21, it already has about 50 international and Russian safety certificates and additions to them. Its huge advantage is that the liner is produced entirely from domestic components. And for some reason, the critics forget to mention that the Tu-204/214 costs about 30 million dollars apiece!

Instead, they pounce on the Soviet liner because it supposedly has engines that are not economical enough according to European standards. Right, it's funny. If suddenly someone is not in the know, then under the Iranian order, PD-90A3 power plants with significantly improved characteristics were developed, which removed all such claims. True, later on, at the suggestion of American partners and local lobbyists, they preferred to forget about these engines.

Like us and predicted, left with nothing, the government of the Russian Federation nevertheless decided to order a small batch of Tu-214 from the Kazan Aircraft Building Plant, while the MS-21 is being brought to mind. Meanwhile, this Soviet-designed medium-haul liner has great potential even today.

At first, on its basis it is possible to develop a cargo version and a passenger version with a shortened fuselage and at the same time an increased flight range. These are completely new market segments where there will be no intersection with MS-21.

Secondly, a medium-haul liner is almost perfect platform to create an anti-submarine aviation complex (PLAK) to replace the few aging Il-38 and Tu-142 PLO aircraft. In addition, on the basis of the Tu-204/214, several modifications have already been created specifically for the needs of the RF Ministry of Defense - two Tu-214R integrated reconnaissance aircraft and two Tu-214ON reconnaissance aircraft.

Thirdly, leaving the Tu-214 in Kazan, it is possible to transfer the production of his half-brother Tu-204SM to Iran. Yes, at one time Tehran was very interested in this model, as well as the short-haul Tu-334, wanting to buy a license for it. Considering that Iran has de facto become a key strategic partner for Russia in the Middle East, it would be expedient to deepen economic cooperation by organizing on a parity basis a joint aircraft production in the Islamic Republic.

Key components, including the power plant, can be left in Russia, and the remaining 50% of components can be produced in Iran, providing it with sales and subsequent service. equipment. Thus, it would be possible to increase the production of components for the Tu-204/214 family in our country, reducing the cost of production and entering new markets in the Middle East.

Information

Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.

Nelton

+1

6 July 2023 15: 28

liner Tu-204/214 .... completely from domestic components.

Only the production capacities for both components and the aircraft itself for 2022 amounted to 5 boards per year maximum (or rather, about 3).
82 billion rubles were allocated for expansion to 10 (2025) and then 20 * (2027) aircraft per year,
Somewhat faster than the pace of deployment of production of MS-21, (PD-14) but not to say that radically.
So projects are going on in parallel - and it's good.

Objectively, it takes time.
He gave an example, for the components of PD-8 / PD-14, a Russian gas condenser was installed in Ufa, the production of which took a year and a half.
To launch - another half a year is required.
And a number of plants in chains - only the sites were approved.

* And yes, 20 aircraft per year is potentially a fleet of 500 Tu-214s alone.
Taking into account the fact that the Russian Federation needs about 1000 aircraft all types, it is even redundant for the domestic market.
1. prior
  
  -5
  
  7 July 2023 08: 42
  
  While there are such Nelton, you can continue to successfully "hang noodles on your ears."
  Because no one, no organization will take a plane that brings only losses.
  And there are no other consumers (read Ivanushek the Fools) in the world, which means there is no sales market.
  1. Nelton
    
    +1
    
    7 July 2023 11: 22
    
    Quote: prior
    no organization will take the plane
    
    All aircraft planned for construction (for all types) have already been contracted by airlines for several years ahead.
    How much more expensive they will be in operation than AiB - time will tell.
Vladimir80

+7

6 July 2023 16: 06

As long as ale with antosha and den is in power, nothing good will happen, there will be noodles on the ears, with the shifting of deadlines and another subsidy for another import substitution
1. Nelton
  
  +1
  
  6 July 2023 17: 05
  
  Quote: Vladimir80
  As long as ale with antosha and den is in power, nothing good will happen, there will be noodles on the ears, with moving dates
  
  Tell me, comrade, is a nuclear power plant with VVER-1200 reactors "good"?
  The project is Russian, already 8 reactors are operating.
  Although the path from the beginning of the project to the commissioning of at least the first was more than one year.
  
  Icebreakers of project 22220?
  3 are already breaking ice on the Northern Sea Route.
  
  Ivolga electric trains?
  with might and main carry passengers to the MCD and MCC.
  
  SSJ - no matter how, but 200+ were built, 150 are actively exploited.
  
  Kamaz K5 - after the departure of the Germans, they were able to restart production, they keep the pace of 35 pieces a day, although of course not everything is perfect, Russian component suppliers are still [....] and [....].
  
  Well, NOVATEK with its "Arctic Cascade" did not immediately start spinning as it should, but by the end of 2022 it was debugged.
  
  Taken together, all this gives reason to believe that a considerable part of current projects will be brought to an acceptable (quantity / quality / price) series. But of course, not all.
  1. savage3000
    
    +1
    
    6 July 2023 18: 17
    
    Not enough for 23 years somehow. These are all exceptions due to the miraculously preserved heritage of the USSR. More random.
    1. Nelton
      
      0
      
      6 July 2023 18: 49
      
      Quote from Savage3000
      Not enough for 23 years somehow
      
      Excellent.
      the usual course of the discussion, from "nothing is done, only sawn!" to "not enough for 23 years."
      First, that's not all.
      Secondly - and there are many countries in the world, who has done more in these 23 years?
      
      at the same time - a new reactor, a new aircraft, a new icebreaker (let's not quibble - tankers will do), a new high-capacity turbine, our own LNG technology?
      Well, China, whose economy and population is 10 times ours.
      And then not all of them mastered it.
      who else?
      
      they mastered a lot in Korea - but not planes.
      Embraer is the beauty and pride of Brazil - but there is no localization, and otherwise they did not distinguish themselves.
      European countries have not been doing anything for a long time, everything is just a dense pool.
      1. savage3000
        
        0
        
        19 July 2023 22: 34
        
        The reactor is Soviet, modernized, the aircraft is known as the Yak-242, and so on. A high-power turbine is 500 MW. God forbid, we have 120. It was made for 20 years and it’s not a fact that they did it.
        
        It's been 23 years. Over these years, our economy has remained based on raw materials. GDP growth for 23 years is below the global one. We are critically dependent on everything!
        
        We have destroyed all priorities, with the exception of nuclear, thanks to the USSR and for the fact that progress there is not so fast.
        
        But they spent a trillion on Sochi! And the soldiers now go to their own for bafengs!
  2. Rim Nant
    
    0
    
    7 July 2023 00: 56
    
    Well, all these reactors and icebreakers are not entirely commercial projects, these enterprises do not earn anything, they only spend budget funds, we understand how they still spend, plunder most of them. We are even building Egypt on credit at 3%, with the start of payments from the year 29, i.e. never. There is no reason to believe that a considerable part of current projects will be brought to an acceptable level, because the budget deficit has already been
    1. Nelton
      
      0
      
      7 July 2023 10: 36
      
      Quote from Rim Nant
      all these reactors and icebreakers are not quite commercial projects
      
      if approached from a commercial point of view, then almost all Soviet successes will have to be deleted from the achievements, and the American Hubble Apollos are the same - not commercial at all.
      
      returning to - for the Russian Federation, the development of sowing. sea route is becoming more than relevant in terms of the economy.
      And here we need icebreakers, and floating nuclear power plants (we have mastered the same), and LNG technologies, and gas carriers / tankers.
      You can say as much as you like that a Russian tanker is twice as expensive as a Korean one, but the Korean one will simply not be sold to us.
      
      Nuclear power plants with VVER-1200 - firstly, they are being actively built in the Russian Federation itself.
      Leningrad, Novovoronezh (this is what is introduced).
      Abroad, we are trying the build-own-operate scheme.
      it's not guaranteed to work, but we "at least tried".
      China pays well.
      
      what thread Orioles - and does more than necessary / relevant.
      And they have the same export potential, in any case, TransMashHolding won the tender in India.
      
      Quote from Rim Nant
      budget deficit
      
      from the same series as the size of the US public debt.
      1. Rim Nant
        
        0
        
        7 July 2023 15: 11
        
        I meant in the context of the article this is one, two, we have a very sad experience of budget injections into such projects. All of them are unstable, as long as oil is being sold, there are other ways of injections, of course, they may not be too loud and longer-term, but they are not even started. For example, helping small and medium-sized businesses ...
        
        Nelton
        
        0
        
        7 July 2023 16: 28
        
        Quote from Rim Nant
        there are other ways of infusions, of course they may not be too loud and longer-term, but they are not even started.
        
        Of course, there are other ways to inject.
        Everything that is connected with the extraction, processing and transportation of natural resources, and recently - also with agriculture. All this is being tried to produce more semi-finished products than raw materials, burdens are attached to all this in the form of using Russian equipment and components, wherever possible, and things are going on as usual.
        
        Capital intensity is skyrocketing.
        Here we are discussing the Tu-204, for the development of which serious money was allocated, 40 billion, and all that.
        Against this background, right today, Tominsky GOK quietly and peacefully reached its industrial capacity, which, even in the commissioning mode, paid 2022 billion rubles in taxes alone in 20.
        Who is discussing this?
        
        Nelton
        
        0
        
        7 July 2023 17: 19
        
        Sergey Marzhetsky
        pumps out a huge amount of water, which led this summer to a sharp decrease in the level of the reservoir and interruptions in the water supply to my area.
        They won't talk about it on TV, right? about taxes, GOK is registered in Cyprus offshore
        
        This event was not reported on TV at all. News on "metalinfo" and in local media.
        
        As for water, it's not just the GOK that's to blame.
        https://mgorsk.ru/text/ecology/2023/06/05/72362543/
        
        About Cyprus:
        Russian Copper Company (owns GOK):
        
        State registration data: No. 1046603513450 dated 19.07.2004/XNUMX/XNUMX, Russian Federal Tax Inspectorate for the Kirovsky District of Yekaterinburg
        Legal address: 620075, Sverdlovsk region, g.o. city of Yekaterinburg, city of Yekaterinburg, Gorky st., building 57
        
        there really is some kind of add-on registered in Cyprus, but this does not remove the obligation to pay taxes from those units that are located in the Russian Federation.
vlad127490

+8

6 July 2023 17: 30

The Tu-214/204 aircraft is produced only thanks to Kazan's perseverance. Thanks Kazanians. Elsewhere, the comprador authorities of the Russian Federation would not have allowed the release of the Tu-214/204. The Tu-214/204 liner is located in the medium-long-haul niche. MS-21 cannot compete with Tu-214/204, MS-21 will have to be upgraded. Serial production of MS-21 should be expected in 2035. Sanctions will be at least 15 years. It is necessary to make 25 Tu-214/204 aircraft per year, to saturate civil, military, Ministry of Emergency Situations aviation. Expand production, build new workshops in Kazan. There will be desire in power, there will be planes.
savage3000

-3

6 July 2023 18: 00

They are zero, these prospects. the Tu-204cm may have them, minimal. But the Tu-204/214 is past.
whitebeard

+1

6 July 2023 19: 32

I agree with the author on most points, much in common with my thoughts and conclusions. And a great idea to get into trouble with Iran. You can also try to connect Belarus. Iran, if anything, will absorb excess carcass production, if any, as a result of the entire i-substitution process
whitebeard

+1

6 July 2023 19: 36

And, by the way, one more thing - the Carcass is now a kind of analogue of the Chinese C919, which is also all "aluminum", simple, with conventional engines, but inexpensive, as a result of which orders for many poor Asian, African and Latin American countries are not unreasonably predicted for it. If ours are allowed into the PS-90A3 series, then Tu, at normal production rates, will be able to compete with the C919 in the poor aviation markets
1. nov_tech.vrn
  
  0
  
  6 July 2023 20: 01
  
  the main thing is when starting the production of technical specifications, further development and modernization are provided, during mass production money appears and new solutions can be expected that in ten years the aircraft will not turn into a relic
Vldmir Smrnff

0

6 July 2023 21: 41

And what prevents the Tu-214 from installing the PD-14 engine ... nothing.
And what prevents you from making the wing and tail unit for the Tu-214 from composite fiber, like for the MS-21 - nothing.
I think if the production of the Tu-214 is resumed, then in a few years it will be so.
1. whitebeard
  
  0
  
  6 July 2023 23: 49
  
  In theory, nothing interferes, but there are several practical "buts": firstly, at first there will obviously not be enough PD-1s to put them on Tu-14/20 as well - they will all go to MS-14, and with the possible launch of production of the PS-21A90, there is little point in distracting Perm Motors from the motorization of the now more modern MS-3. Secondly, it will be possible to install such expensive updates as a black wing and tail on the Tu only after (and if) it takes its stable and numerous niche in the market, which will justify these expensive investments in modernization, especially since our production composites in the early years will also be busy servicing the more modern MS-21.
  
  Therefore, this is not relevant for Tu so far, it is much more important for him to start mass production "as is", with some minimal upgrades such as putting the same PS-90A3 into series, with the cheapest possible price, in order to find customers not only in the Russian Federation, but and among poor countries who want to compete there with the S919 - this is a real task, although even in this form it will require investments, because Tupolev has poor service and timely deliveries of spare parts, so it will be necessary to invest in this (preferably jointly and on the basis of the network being created to serve MS-21, which, in turn, should also be able to serve SSJ-New, which also has problems in this regard, although they are being solved slowly).
AC130 Gunship

+2

7 July 2023 04: 39

Lebedev, before he was run over and "asked", owned 10 pieces. And I wanted to buy more. But ... he wrote that each aircraft was different from the previous one and the technicians had to look for different components, because. there was nothing about it in those documentation. Repair and maintenance - HORROR in large letters. Well, the interservice span is much less than the average on the market. That's why 30 and not 50 or 100...
Joker62

+3

7 July 2023 14: 48

I still remember the moment when I saw the Tu-214 and Tu-314 live in the dashing 90s. It's just hard to describe how perfect and graceful they were in their beauty. Both of these machines were ready to fully replace the obsolete aircraft fleet from the Tu-134 and Tu-154 families.
And most importantly, the Tu-154BM was produced by the Kuibyshev Aviation Plant (i.e. Samara), where it produced the Tu-95 (Bear). But unfortunately, because of the betrayal and short-sightedness of the ministers and governors, the plant fell asleep.
The Kazan Aircraft Plant is simply working at the limit of its capabilities - there is a shortage of both space and qualified specialists of all levels.
I do not blame the author Sergei Marzhetsky, but simply add the fact that there were cases in the aviation industry.
As for the MS-21, this is a project of outcasts who want by all means to overshadow the glory of the Soviet school of the aviation industry. Alas, life shows that these liberals themselves do not notice that they are following the path of the Stalinist economic system - from the NEP to the 5-Year Economy.
I am ready to receive from malicious and not distant minusers in my address.
But life shows that without our own native production, it is impossible to ensure reliability in everything.
kriten

+1

7 July 2023 15: 06

In theory, it would be necessary to produce both of them, having created the necessary capacities for this. But in today's organization of the economy: irresponsibility and impunity - such tasks are not solved, and we will continue to do 3-5 aircraft a year. To solve such problems, a wartime organization is needed, when everything is for victory, fulfilling the tasks set, and not making a profit and kickbacks into pockets.
Pembo

+2

7 July 2023 15: 33

Instead, they pounce on the Soviet liner because it supposedly has engines that are not economical enough according to European standards. Right, it's funny. If suddenly someone is not in the know, then under the Iranian order, PD-90A3 power plants with significantly improved characteristics were developed, which removed all such claims.

The main claim to the PS-90A1 engine is that it was developed with the Americans, and therefore its deliveries to Iran are prohibited. Therefore, this engine was probably simply renamed PS-90A3M, especially since its fuel consumption is 0.6 kg / kgf per hour, i.e. like other PS-90s. The next generation engine PD-14 has an consumption of 0.55 kg / kgf per hour, which is close to the best world standards.
Potapov

-2

7 July 2023 18: 46

While at the top they are busy with the problems of the world economy and politics, with the influence of pederasts on the happy life of Russians - no ... Do not interfere ... creatures ... But they can’t bend down to such a problem - well, crowds are running to lick ...
Yuri Bryanskiy

0

8 July 2023 05: 07

This shows the presence of traitors Russophobes at the top.