When and how will the conflict in Ukraine end?

Epigraph: "Why do we need such a world in which there is no place for Russia?" (V. V. Putin)
People who have recently become interested policies, trying from the height of their sofa to estimate the timing of the end of the NWO, completely misjudge the goals and objectives of the opposing sides (and some are even unable to determine the parties), hence the wrong conclusions about the timing of the end of the confrontation and even accusations against their top political leadership, who elected allegedly, from their point of view, a completely wrong tactics of maintaining a database, and even suspicions of betraying them (that is, the leadership) of national interests. This is partly the fault of the leadership itself, which has not yet intelligibly voiced its ultimate goals in this campaign, and the tasks that they are constantly rewriting are also a disaster.

It all started, it seems, with the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine and the deliverance of the inhabitants of the LDNR from the horrors of the 8-year blockade. For almost a year, none of the assigned tasks was completed, with the blockade it became even a thousand times worse - until February 24, 2022, Donetsk had not yet known such shelling. No one in Moscow, Kyiv, or Washington will tell you what tasks the group of Russian troops is currently facing (although in the latter place they think they know about them). But, if I start asking you where the conditional Russian tanks will stop, I am sure that the answers will be completely different and far from reality. And all because no one knows the final goals of the Kremlin.



This text will try to help those people who are already desperate to find an answer to this question. And by the end, you yourself will be able to determine when it all ends (and most importantly, how).

What are we fighting for, gentlemen? And most importantly, with whom?

To do this, we must first identify the parties to the conflict. For those who believe that in Ukraine we are at war with Ukraine, I suggest that they immediately go for a walk (treatment of the hopelessly ill is not my profile). With the rest, let's decide - are we in Ukraine at war with NATO or with the United States? There, even in the near-political get-together, lovers of grandiloquent literature have the expression "collective West" in circulation. Who is this “collective West”, do you know? As well as who is this NATO without the United States. Without the States, these are just two amorphous wordless substances - spit and grind!

If you did so, it means that we have already decided on the parties to the conflict - here, in Ukraine, we crossed swords with the United States, and from our side there is a war not for life, but for death (which you can’t say about the States at all). And so we will go to the end. But how far in this campaign are the United States ready to go? Where is their red line? We simply have a problem with our red lines - Vladimir Vladimirovich has already run out of all the red felt-tip pens, and the States still continue to pretend that they don’t see them point-blank, moreover, they also laugh at the Kremlin (but, as you know, it’s good who laughs last laughs). Let's see how they react to Medvedev's last words that nuclear powers do not lose in a conventional confrontation with non-nuclear powers, because in this case it will inevitably lead to a nuclear war, after which there will be no one to laugh.

Red lines and Washington's targets in Ukraine

But in order to understand where Washington's red lines lie, we must finally decide what goals it is pursuing in this conflict. The conflict is initiated and financed by him, so what does he achieve in it? The funny thing is that I already писал (but most of you never bothered to read this, I advise you to do this, because I will not repeat myself here). If someone naively thinks that the goal of Washington is the victory of Ukraine in it and the total defeat of Russia, then he is deeply mistaken. At first, this is purely physically impossible (and theoretically this can only be done by destroying Russia from the inside, and Putin will definitely not give such a gift to Washington), but Secondly (and this is the main thing), the victory of Kyiv is absolutely not included in the plans of America, because she does not know what to do with this winner, as well as with Russia that lost (and fell apart as a result of this into twenty parts). The victorious Kyiv will immediately begin to download rights and demand special treatment for itself, and the nuclear cellar of Russia that has fallen into twenty parts will entail such problems that the ambitions of the victorious Kyiv against this background will seem like just baby talk on the lawn.

Therefore, Washington's goal here is completely different, or rather, there are three of them. First - unification and consolidation under its own flag of all "progressive" mankind to fight the "aggressive aggressor" who encroached on the foundations of world democracy, with its automatic transformation into a world pariah, bracketing the civilized world and eliminating it as a competitor. The second the goal, which is a consequence of the first, is the complete isolation of the “aggressor”, which implies an embargo of its goods, which, in turn, should “liberate” Europe from “slavish” dependence on Russian energy resources, which will bury the EU as a manufacturer of competitive goods with high added value, will lead to an outflow of capital, both industrial and financial, to America in search of cheap energy resources and a quiet financial haven, which will automatically lead to the elimination of another competitor from the world Olympus (represented by the EU) and the absorption of its sales markets. And third, the main goal pursued by Washington (for the sake of which all this, in fact, was started) is to tie Russia's hands in the long-term (attrition) military conflict in Ukraine and untie the hands of the United States in order to eliminate their main adversary - the People's Republic of China with an exact confidence that Russia, exhausted by the war in Ukraine, will no longer intervene in this conflict.

And all this stuff is being started only in order to extend at least another 30-40 years its comfortable existence and world hegemony, which cannot be carried out without expansion and absorption (the fact that Europe is now chosen for this, do not be surprised, her hour has come, because all other markets are already occupied and plundered by the same United States - there is nothing personal, it's just business). We must understand that world domination is not an end in itself, but only a means to survive. The fact that for this it is necessary to demonize the Russian Federation, degrease Europe and cross swords with China is nothing more than a side effect of these processes. On the world Olympus, at the moment there is only room for one - Bolivar will no longer withstand two (as the United States believes).

Therefore, Washington's red line lies in the plane of its gastrointestinal tract, which is the world financial system based on the dominance of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. It is precisely there that Moscow is now attacking, and the hegemon has already sensed this danger and his imminent death. Therefore, whoever has not yet left the dollar, hurry up to do it, because this cabinet will fall loudly and bury under its rubble all the holders of these greenbacks who still continue to pray to him. Fortunately, this will not happen soon, and you still have time - while China and Japan are the owners of the largest portfolios of American treasuries. As soon as they start dumping them en masse, this process will immediately become irreversible and the dollar will collapse in a matter of days before your eyes (and Washington itself will initiate this, saving its assets, it will issue a new currency - the digital dollar).

But all this will not happen soon (you still have at least 5-6 years), so Russia now needs to concentrate on the problem that Washington has created for it in Ukraine, and think about how to solve it with little bloodshed. From all of the above, it is already clear that the United States in Ukraine is playing for a draw, while only victory suits us, since even a draw for the Russian Federation is comparable to defeat. We are saved only by the fact that the victory of Ukraine is not included in the plans of both sides (there is already something to agree on). But negotiations still have to wait. This year, the moment for negotiations has already been missed twice. First once - in April 2022, when only the urgent arrival in Kyiv of Boris Johnson buried the looming hope for the Istanbul agreements (then you absolutely vainly scolded the Medinsky team - Putin knew what he was doing, he was trying to fix the profit obtained in February-March with little bloodshed, and reach a truce necessary to build up forces, but the scoundrel Johnson broke everything off). The second the possibility of a truce was already buried by Zelensky himself in the fall of 2022, when, after a series of successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv, Krasnolymansk and Kherson directions, even the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, General of the Army Mark Milley, insisted on a truce, rightly explaining to Zelensky who caught the star that the window of opportunity is when Kyiv can negotiate from a position of strength, is about to close. What happened through the efforts of General Armageddon, who stabilized and reduced the front line (up to 815 km) and tied up the enemy forces released from Kherson near Bakhmut. As a result, the moment for negotiations was lost. Now the path to them will run through the battlefields, and it is there that each of the parties will look for arguments to strengthen their negotiating positions. But first I would like to talk about the kurtosis of the performer.

Excess performer

Epigraph: "The goal of any war is peace on terms favorable to the victorious side." (Carl Philipp Gottlieb von Clausewitz)

When we say that the weak-willed and spineless Europe after 1945 lost its subjectivity, and Ukraine never had it, then all this is very conditional, because no one has canceled the excess of the performer. How much Zelensky is a wordless puppet of the West, he clearly demonstrated last fall, disobeying the urgent advice of the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff himself about the need for urgent negotiations with Moscow, imagining that with the help of the West he could reach Sakhalin, completely unaware that it was completely not included in the plans of America. As a result, General Surovikin closed this window of opportunity, nullifying the chance that had arisen to negotiate peace with Russia on favorable terms for itself (more precisely, for the States), forcing Washington to look for a new pretext for negotiations from a position of strength.

This time, Grandpa Joe attracted not General Milli, but no less worthy comrades (although what kind of comrades are we? Tambov wolves are their comrades!). Their names are Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates. One is a former US Secretary of State (under Obama) and a former national security adviser (under Bush Jr.), the other is a former CIA chief (under Bush Sr.) and a former head of the Pentagon (under Bush Jr. and Obama). So, on January 7, these respected gentlemen embossed in the main mouthpiece of the US Democratic Party The Washington Post their own article entitled “Time is not on the side of Ukraine”, in which they made it clear to Zelensky and the rest of the riffraff called “the world democratic community” that time for reflection expires (referring not to the time of Zelensky or the “global progressive public”, but the time of Grandpa Joe). They don’t give a damn about Zelensky and the world community - grandpa Joe is waiting for great things (which ones, I explained here), so he can't wait. And therefore, now everyone urgently needs to strain and help Zelensky to defeat Putin, otherwise it will be too late later. And it will be too late not for Zelensky or Putin, but for grandfather Joe (but they don’t write about it, I’m translating it for you from American into Russian, revealing the hidden subtext of this publication). Moreover, by the word “overcome” they do not mean a total victory of Ukrainian weapons over Russian ones, but only a local victory, which will allow Kyiv to again enter into negotiations from a position of strength (as Zelensky ineptly spread his first attempt, I told above).

Actually, these comrades (who are not our comrades at all) do not even hide their intentions (for which I personally have great respect for the Americans!) And speak about it openly:


That is, if anyone has not yet understood, the war on the American side in the Ukrainian theater is not for victory, but for a draw and a stronger negotiating position in future peace negotiations. Grandpa Joe needs the world (why, I won’t repeat, link above), only the world on its own terms. It was not in vain that I quoted Clausewitz as an epigraph to this section. Even 200 years ago, in his famous treatise "On War", he clearly and succinctly formulated the goals of any war, explaining that "the goal of any war is peace on the terms of the winner." So the States, starting this conflict, hoped to end it, firstly, quickly and inexpensively for yourself, and Secondly, to tie the hands of Russia to them so that she does not get in the way when they take up China. On the first point, it didn’t work out quickly and inexpensively, here Putin failed (failed to cope with the tasks assigned to him by Washington), now the United States is faced with the goal of getting out of the conflict on their own by hanging a loaded Ukrainian gun with a cocked trigger in Russia’s dressing room in order to untie their hands for China and leave Moscow's hands tied.

A war of attrition is not at all in Grandpa Joe's plans. According to his plans, the Kremlin was to be depleted. But Putin let his grandfather down, got stuck in Ukraine, shifting both the war and the maintenance of the Kyiv regime onto his old man's shoulders, and this was not at all part of our hero's plans. Only two years remain before the end of his term, and the issue with China is still open. In Europe, he has already done all his work, after undermining the EU offshore gas pipelines at his feet, it is necessary to take profits and exit unprofitable projects. Ukraine is a priori unprofitable project. As conceived by our hero, its maintenance was supposed to fall on the shoulders of the Kremlin, but Washington clearly overestimated its strength (we, by the way, too!). But every cloud has a silver lining, and on this Grandpa Joe decided to warm his old hands by running his military-industrial complex to its fullest. Further, the process will go on automatically, part of the European satellites of America for the sake of Ukraine has already disarmed, the other part should follow their example (which Condoleezza Rice and her friend informed them about), their rearmament will be handled by grandfather Joe and his successor as president of America, who whatever it becomes (this process is not fast, and therefore planned for years to come, everyone involved in it will get rich). And now Grandpa Joe is in a hurry to get out of Europe - a new, Asia-Pacific theater of war is waiting for him, and waging a war on two fronts is not at all included in his plans, because the experience of both the First and Second World Wars teaches that this ends badly for those who overestimates his strength (in both cases, Germany suffered, how it ended for her, you know, Grandpa Joe also knows and does not want to repeat her fate at all).

That is why he is in a hurry to conclude peace in Ukraine on favorable terms for himself, and for this they still need to be created. That is why Washington has chosen to pump Kyiv with heavy offensive weapons (namely, tanks) as an implementation mechanism. Reinforced with tank armor, Zelensky was supposed to get this peace for Biden on the Ukrainian battlefields. But then the second kurtosis of the performer happened, and exactly where no one expected him. The weak-willed "offended sausage" Scholz suddenly showed unexpected stamina in defending incomprehensible interests. It would seem, well, what is he risking? Let him not give his "Leopards", but why does he not allow others to do this? What is he afraid of and who does he work for? He stood in a pose and said that he would give the green light only after Grandpa Joe and his Abrams, knowing for sure that Grandpa Joe would not give Abrams (because they were expensive, heavy, secret, and even on aviation kerosene, God forbid, Putin capture and unravel all the secrets of the United States!). The question has reached a dead end, and Grandpa Joe is running out of time - until the end of 2023. What to do?

"Ramstein-8" ended in nothing, no one will wait for the ninth, and the English "Challengers-2" will not save the situation. If Grandpa Joe doesn’t burn out with tanks and it’s not possible to push through Scholz, then you will have to supply missiles with a radius of destruction of 150+ km to create a constant threat of an attack by Ukraine on Crimea and thereby make a second approach to try to negotiate with Moscow from a position of strength on your own terms ( no peace, no war with fixing the status quo, but with the constant threat of its violation by Kyiv - the same loaded Ukrainian gun in the dressing room of the Russian Federation). This perspective has already been voiced by US Deputy Secretary of Defense Colin Cole, who arrived in Kyiv on January 17 as part of a representative American delegation. At a press approach to the assembled journalists, he said that the States would continue the discussion with Kyiv about the type of long-range missiles. According to him, at this stage, the Pentagon recognized that the Armed Forces of Ukraine needed them. But just recently it was reported that the United States would not supply long-range missiles to Ukraine in order to prevent attacks on Russian territory. It turns out that Washington has changed its mind? As you can see, this happened even before Rammstein-8. This means that Washington knew about the position of Berlin and decided to lay straws. I'm afraid that this straw will be tougher than tanks. We would have dealt with tanks, we still need to go on the attack with them, but with missiles with a range of 150+ km there is no need to go anywhere - even the very fact of their presence increases the threat to Moscow and strengthens Kyiv's negotiating position. You can already trade. Good move!

The fact that this is not a joke and not the fruit of our sick fantasies became clear a couple of days after the Kyiv revelations of the Deputy head of the Pentagon. On January 19, The New York Times published an article in which the publication, citing unspecified sources in the presidential administration, claimed that the US authorities were seriously considering providing Kyiv with weapons capable of striking Crimea. That is, if before that they did not consider Crimea as a legitimate military target for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, taking it out of brackets, as it were, now they are removing the brackets and giving the go-ahead to Kyiv to use long-range American weapons against military facilities on the peninsula.


The New York Times informed its readers, citing sources in the White House.


- Adrienne Watson, spokeswoman for the National Security Council, said in a tone to the publication.

Despite the fact that the United States has always considered Crimea to be Ukrainian territory, Washington has so far refused to provide Kyiv with the means to strike targets on the peninsula. U.S. military and officials have privately questioned the wisdom of strikes in Crimea, believing that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have “more suitable targets elsewhere on the battlefield,” writes the NYT. Now, according to the publication, the position of the administration has changed. US authorities are leaning towards the idea that if Russia feels the risk of losing control of Crimea, it will strengthen Ukraine's position in any future negotiations. In addition, fears about the threat of Moscow retaliating with tactical nuclear weapons have also eased among US officials and experts, while, in their opinion, the risk of such a scenario still remains.

That is, the gentlemen of the imperialists have clearly lost their fear and continue to brazenly tease the Russian bear (well, what do you want, we ourselves provoke them to this with our weak-willed position - we still have not answered for the airfields of long-range strategic aviation). It is noteworthy that this article was published the day before Rammstein-8 (it is clear that the gentlemen knew something about the irreconcilable position of Berlin in advance).

Commenting on the NYT publication, State Department spokesman Ned Price said that the decision rests with the Ukrainian authorities.


- said Price.

Here I will allow myself to disagree with an official from the United States. The Americans are deliberately escalating. Their goal is not the self-defense of Ukraine, they do not care about it, their goal is to enter into negotiations with Moscow from a position of strength. Grandpa Joe's temporary resource is running out, it is necessary to fix the profit and get out of Europe. Southeast Asia and President Xi are waiting for him. And not with tanks, but with missiles, but he will achieve his goal. All wars sooner or later (if they do not end with the surrender of one of the parties) end with peace negotiations. As Clausewitz said, "the goal of any war is peace on the terms of the winner." And if the winner could not be determined, then the status quo is fixed at the current moment. Zelensky's spokesman Sergei Nikiforov, commenting on his boss's position, recently said that negotiations should be based on certain principles. Bullshit! Negotiations are based not on principles, but on the balance of power at the moment, and in order to improve this balance, Grandpa Joe is making every effort. He wants the world on his own terms. Therefore, they throw Zelensky into the last and decisive battle, having previously stuffed it with hexogen, based on the principle: "War is the mother of negotiations." Hence the banal conclusion - there will be no negotiations in the near future until an advantage on the battlefield of one of the parties is achieved. We are waiting, sir ... The time has come (the planning horizon is the next six months, everything will be decided during this period).

Tasks of the parties for the near, medium and long term

Now that the goals of the parties are known to us, let's try to determine what are the ways to implement them. And this is exactly what we call tasks. Tasks are short-term, medium-term and long-term. Task on distant the perspective of both sides (who are our sides, you, I hope, have not forgotten yet) - to achieve military-strategic superiority in order to enter into negotiations from a position of strength. Why such an end goal? Because now it has become completely clear that none of the parties to the conflict can achieve the defeat and total defeat of the enemy. For the United States, as I said above, this is not the ultimate goal, but for Russia it turned out to be impossible, given its current military and mobilization resource, which it cannot instantly increase (this can be seen from the pace of mobilization and the speed of transition economics on military rails, which cannot be built up at the snap of a finger). Another important factor that made it impossible for us to achieve a total victory over the enemy was the degree of support for Ukraine and the involvement of third countries in the conflict (now the anti-Russian coalition has 52 countries, and the States are working to involve others in it, while trying to maintain the neutrality of states).

From here, the tasks for the short and medium term become clear. task for short-term the prospect is to build up and accumulate forces in order to create their advantage in a separate local sector of the front, where the enemy’s defense will be broken through and a local tactical victory will be achieved, which will allow entering into negotiations from a position of strength, where peace will be concluded on the terms of the winner with fixation situation at this particular moment. This tactical victory and is mid-term a task for both sides, and they are now moving towards it (the planning horizon, as I said, is six months).

Now that the tasks of the parties have been determined by us, let's try to understand what is the ultimate goal they pursue when the surrender of the opposite side is unattainable for the reasons indicated above? For the States ultimate goal in this conflict is the conclusion of peace on any conditions of the Russian Federation, subject to its own main condition - the Ukrainian loaded gun should remain hanging in the dressing room of Russia, ready to fire at any command from Washington. And for this, it is necessary to preserve the Kyiv regime on any piece of land that will remain behind it after the implementation of the medium-term task. All this is necessary for Washington to realize its main task - tying the hands of Russia and untying one's own hands for a showdown with China in the Asia-Pacific region in the Indo-Pacific theater of operations.

For Russia ultimate goal now is the prolongation of the conflict and its transfer to a sluggish regime with the sole purpose of waiting for the changing of the guard in the White House and the weakening of funding for the Kyiv regime with little blood (both ours and Ukraine’s) (both of these events will occur in 2024, which means we need to stretch out another year) . If, after a local victory in the Ukrainian theater of operations, it is possible to conclude a truce with Kyiv with the status quo fixed for the current moment, then it will be possible to say that intermediate goal reached. Time is playing on us now. When the financing of the Kyiv regime weakens (and this will happen anyway, sooner or later, because no one is going to drag Zelensky on his shoulders all his life), then he will either collapse under the weight of the economic problems that have piled on him, or Russia will help him do this, having increased his that time its military and military-industrial potential. After which it will be possible to say that final goal - the disappearance of the Ukrainian military threat along with its statehood - achieved (whether Ukraine will be torn apart into five states - Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary and Russia - or all of it will become part of the Russian Federation, it is not so important, it is important that the threat disappear) . All this will happen within the next two years, let's be patient (a bird, as they say, a grain at a time). The less our and Ukrainian citizens die in this case, the better.

This concludes the report on the topic. All peace and goodness. Your Mr. Z