I am finishing my review of the situation caused by the events of last year, which I began in previous text, where I summed up the results of 2022 and outlined the general features of the future awaiting us after the victory (naturally, our victory). Those who have not had time to familiarize themselves with it can still do it either before or after reading this text (link attached). I highly recommend doing this to understand the big picture, because there I not only gave an analysis from the military analyst Boris Rozhin, but also explained what the new tactics of General Surovikin are, which allowed him to return the strategic initiative to the Russian Federation. Today we will talk about the deep processes that dragged us into this conflict, how this could have been avoided (which, unfortunately, the Kremlin did not do) and how we can all get out of this situation now.
Let's start from the end. People who are trying to look into the future and predict the timing of the end of SVO do not understand the main thing - they are trying to calculate the effect, while you need to look at the cause. The deadlines for the end of the SVO do not depend on the parties involved in the conflict, in this case they are just pawns in someone else's game (do not be offended, and Russia too), here you need to look at the beneficiary of these events. And who is our beneficiary? That's right, he is only one, and his name is grandfather Joe, not even the United States, but the current president in the States (more precisely, those who stand behind him, Biden is also just a screen). In fact, Russia is opposed by a weak, but not at all feeble-minded Joe, and not some kind of many-sided unknown collective West (the collective West is generally, ugh - spit and grind!). And therefore, this conflict will last until Grandpa Joe realizes his goals (which goals - more on that below).
When will SVO end? When the US wants it, then it will end
Epigraph: "Now we have no one to talk and negotiate in the West, there is nothing, and there is no need to" (D.A. Medvedev)
Here we need to clarify one very simple thing for ourselves - the conflict was not initiated by us (although it is impossible to prove this to anyone in Ukraine), the conflict was initiated by the States, specifically by the Biden administration operating there since January 2020, which created real threats to the security of the Russian Federation and refused to remove them at the request of Moscow (I'm talking about the December 2021 Kremlin ultimatum). After the subsequent (January 2022) refusal of Washington and Brussels (we are talking about the headquarters of NATO) to satisfy Moscow's legitimate demands to ensure the security of the Russian Federation, the conflict became inevitable and the countdown began. Therefore, all the whining in the West that Putin is about to attack, the evacuation of embassies from Kyiv and other “security measures” were initiated by Washington and its sixes for a reason, but because the Kremlin’s further actions were predetermined, the issue was no longer decided, but time . And this issue was precisely the main mistake of the Kremlin - the choice of the place of impact was erroneous (more on this below).
Why Putin himself voluntarily went into the trap, previously carefully set for him by Grandpa Joe, I do not know. But having chosen on February 24 the only possible (as he believed at that time) way of resolving this issue through a military-police operation by forces of approximately 100 expeditionary corps (the figure is given without taking into account the 30-40 Russian Navy involved in it), Putin himself went into the trap prepared by the administration of the 46th US President, after which the door slammed shut behind him. Grandpa Joe's pink dream came true - the fish took the bait. You know the next course of events.
I both then and now believe that by doing so Putin made a fatal mistake, because he began to fight the consequence, and not the cause - it was necessary to hit not on Ukraine, but on the United States, only in this way it was possible to break Biden's plan. Having got involved in the NVO in Ukraine, Putin became a hostage to someone else's game, because Kyiv will be given weapons as long as it resists. And he will resist as long as they give him a weapon! As a result, the circle closes - a dead end.
What to do? Does this mean there is no way out? Not! There is always a way out, you just need to understand where to go and stop breaking into closed doors (especially in the Donbass, breaking through them with your head). And for this you need to understand one simple thing for yourself - nothing depends on Russia here, everything depends only on who gives weapons to our enemy. And who gives him weapons? That's right, you know the answer. Therefore, the Kremlin needs to negotiate with him. And it is impossible to agree with him until he has realized the goals for which this conflict was initiated (how Moscow ended up in such a stalemate is a big question for me personally, to which there is no answer yet).
US goals in this campaign
What are the goals of the US? And they are simple as God's day. What do the United States produce in our country, except for the dollar (here everyone depicted intense mental activity)? And what came to your mind (sex, chewing gum and rock and roll are swept aside)? It turns out that in the global division of labor, the United States produces, first of all (and only!), weapons (well, also Boeings, which are also part of the American military-industrial complex). And how can European governments be forced to buy it when they refuse to spend even 2% of their own GDP on it, still trying to sit out under the NATO umbrella? And to force them to do this, it was possible only by a direct and obvious threat from the Russian Federation. What the Russian Federation did, by agreement with the United States or by its own stupidity (I don’t even know here, I don’t dare to guess).
Now the flywheel of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict will not be stopped until another flywheel - the American military-industrial complex - is launched to its fullest. And when this happens, his continuous work will be connected with maintaining the smoldering conflict in Ukraine and simulating the threat to the EU coming from the Russian Federation. That is why the victory of Ukraine in this conflict is not included in the plans of grandfather Joe, as well as a quick victory of the Russian Federation in it. For the break-even and profitable operation of the American military-industrial complex, a war is needed (preferably away from the American borders) and Ukraine is the most suitable place for this. And therefore, we are guaranteed a war for ten years, at least until the owner of the White House changes (but even the arrival of the Republicans there will not save us, because there is a bipartisan consensus on this issue in the United States, and therefore, we are guaranteed war even after the change guard in the Oval Office).
Let's fix what has been said - the resumption of the break-even work of the American military-industrial complex is the main goal of the United States. The main, but not the only one. Other, an equally important goal of Grandpa Joe is to degrease the EU and the flow of European financial, industrial and intellectual capital from Europe to America in search of cheap energy resources and a safe financial haven. The third the goal is to eliminate the Russian Federation from the battlefield and bind its forces and resources before the upcoming fight with another predator that is gaining strength - China.
Interests of China and Turkey
China has its own interests in this conflict. And they are not at all connected with the maintenance of the Russian Federation, which is fighting with the hegemon for a multipolar world and its place under the sun in it. In the coffin, Beijing saw the interests of Moscow - let it beat, breaking its forehead and fists against Ukraine, China expects, habitually sitting on the shore, to wait for the corpses of its enemies to float past it. In the coffin, he saw a multipolar world, for which the Russian Federation is fighting, he needs a bipolar world - him and the one who wins this conflict. And let stupid Moscow drag chestnuts out of the fire for him, challenging the hegemon's right to a unipolar world with the United States in Ukraine. When someone wins there, Beijing will conclude an agreement on the division of the world into zones of influence (if it is the Russian Federation, then with the Russian Federation, if the United States, then with the United States). By the way, while the war is going on, Beijing and Delhi are profiting from the hopeless situation of Moscow with the sale of its hydrocarbons, knocking out a big discount for themselves, so a quick end to it is not included in their plans, so that they do not talk about peace there.
Another of our situational ally in this war is Erdogan. Unlike Iran and Belarus, Turkey, as always, turns its back, the Sultan once again confirms the thesis that the East is a delicate matter. It seems to me that we have put too many eggs in his basket, the Sultan is deftly manipulating us in front of Washington and Washington in front of us, knocking out preferences from both us and the Yankees, about which neither comrade. Xi and his Indian friend Narendra Modi can't even dream. I don’t know if Moscow thought that the Sultan is not eternal, in June 2023 he has presidential elections and it’s not at all a fact that he will win them and stay for another term (in Turkey, galloping inflation and the Turks are not at all enthusiastic about this, in they saw the success of the Sultan in the external arena - they need stability in their home, and therefore his chances of winning are one in three).
And even if he wins (by removing all his competitors, some to prison, some by squeezing out abroad), then the States can easily eliminate him by organizing another coup (what they know how to do, like blowing up offshore gas pipelines, Putin already convinced). And what will the GDP do then? Where to drive your gas? To the moon?! And I’m even wondering what the Kremlin’s actions will be if the new president of Turkey says: “We don’t need your gas hub!”, and then what? Has anyone in Moscow thought about this option? Looks like no. All the eggs are again in two or three baskets - in Chinese, Turkish and Indian. In the meantime, only the Iranian and Belarusian baskets have proven their strength.
Ways out of the impasse
But stating the fact of our mistakes will no longer help matters. How to solve the problem that Washington created for us, without bringing it to the NWO, I already suggested earlier - by creating a symmetrical missile threat to the States somewhere in Cuba, Venezuela or Nicaragua (I even came up with a name for this - KVN), but then they didn’t listen to me (yes and who am I for the Kremlin to listen to me?!). Now the Kremlin has to take drastic measures to resolve the current crisis, but better late than never (which is our national feature - until the thunder breaks out, our peasant will not cross himself).
The trouble is that our security structure as of February 24 was based on the "concept of five thousand kilometers." It was at this distance that we were going to keep our enemies, and it was in weapons operating at distances of 5000+ km that we invested, updating the fleet of our strategic nuclear forces (SNF) of land, sea and air base, updating it as a result by 91% (unlike our enemies, for whom this figure froze at around 30%, I personally don’t know how they were going to fight with us, especially against the backdrop of our latest achievements in hypersound!). Although, in principle, it is already clear how - by unleashing their tame dogs of the Ukrainian, Polish and Baltic spill on us. When this happened, we discovered to our horror that we were not ready for such a development of the plot, the professional contract army that we had at that time was not able to resolve such issues by definition, which the whole course of subsequent events showed.
Moreover, the reason for this unsatisfactory state of affairs was laid down from the very beginning. The thing is that we were not preparing to wage ground wars with ground armies against an enemy of equal value to us (the number of our Ground Forces at that time was only 280 thousand people), we were going to keep our potential enemy (and it was NATO, and above all United States) at arm's length (5 km long) by the threat of using its nuclear weapons, and the professional contract army we have was imprisoned for regional conflicts of low intensity with an enemy clearly inferior to it in strength. In Ukraine, we faced an enemy that outnumbered us, the rear of which was the NATO bloc, which put him at his own contentment. What to do with it, Putin had to decide in an emergency mode.
And he solved this problem. We are multiplying the number of our troops, deploying the army according to wartime norms. This was stated by Putin and Defense Minister Shoigu at the expanded board of the Russian Defense Ministry, held on the eve of the New Year on December 21. The number of military personnel of the RF Armed Forces will be increased to 1,5 million people, which is 350 more than the previously adopted number of the RF Armed Forces. This is the second increase in the number of our troops in six months (the first time Putin increased the number of the Russian Armed Forces by 137 thousand people in August 2022 by including two corps of the NM LDNR and 97 thousand volunteers who signed up for territorial volunteer battalions). Now, the increase in the personnel of the RF Armed Forces will occur at the expense of those called up for partial mobilization, by increasing the number of contract soldiers (the number of which will reach 695 thousand people), due to the permission to conclude a contract from the first day of conscription (before that, it was only possible to switch to after three months of service). As a result, the number of our Ground Forces will almost triple, reaching 767 thousand people. (there were 280 thousand, to which 137 thousand and 350 thousand were added). With such a ground army, we can solve any problems in Ukraine, and not only there (Europeans jumping out of their pants in an anti-Russian frenzy should think about how Russian tanks would not wash their tracks in the waters of the English Channel).
In addition, we are increasing the number of military districts from four to six - due to the appearance of the Leningrad (in order to stop the threat from the north in Karelia, a new army corps will be deployed) and the Moscow Military District, and returning to the divisional principle of recruiting troops (instead of the brigade). All motorized rifle brigades that are part of the Ground Forces of the RF Armed Forces (and there are currently 7 of them) will be transformed into divisions by replenishing personnel, in addition, 10 new divisions will be created - 5 artillery, 3 motorized rifle and 2 air assault . At the same time, two of the three new motorized rifle divisions are supposed to be deployed in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. To understand the situation, I will only say that the size of the brigade, according to wartime standards, is 3-4 thousand people, and the strength of the division is 10-12 thousand people. (at your leisure, you can calculate how much the number of our Ground Forces will increase).
The changes will also affect the elite troops. As part of the Airborne Forces, five additional airborne assault divisions should appear (two new and three due to the enlargement of the brigades existing there - the 11th, 31st and 83rd airborne divisions). The enlargement will also affect the Marines. Five new divisions will be deployed in the coastal troops of the Russian Navy on the basis of existing marine brigades. In the Baltic due to the enlargement of the 336th Belostotsk brmp (deployment in Baltiysk), on the Black Sea on the basis of the 810th brmp (Sevastopol), in the Pacific Ocean on the basis of the 40th Krasnodar-Kharbinsk brmp (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky ) and the 155th brmp (Vladivostok), and in the Northern Fleet due to the enlargement of the 61st Kirkines brmp (n. p. Sputnik, Murmansk region).
In addition, artillery in strategic directions will be strengthened by five new artillery divisions and artillery brigades of high power (all under district subordination). And in the Russian Aerospace Forces, the identified problems in the use of Russian aviation led to the decision to create six more army aviation brigades, one fighter and eight bomber aviation regiments there, and this is not counting three additional directorates of air divisions. Also, in order to improve the interaction of military branches in the combined arms and tank armies, mixed aviation divisions and army aviation brigades will be formed, 80-100 helicopters each.
As you can see, we quickly learn from our mistakes. The enemy will not surprise us again. Whoever wins in Ukraine and in general in the global confrontation with the West, let no one raise questions - it will be us, no matter what it costs us (either it will be us, or the whole world will be in ruins! I think in Washington it is understand).
I will end with a full quote from Dmitry Medvedev:
The year was truly a turning point. Like knee-deep, he broke, among other things, the last illusions about the modern Western world. Now it is completely clear that in the relationship of independent and sovereign states with the Anglo-Saxon world in the current configuration, there can be no talk of trust, hope for the decency of partners, their loyalty to the word and even their own beautifully stated principles. Alas, now we have no one to talk and negotiate with the West, there is nothing to talk about, and there is no need to.
This concludes the report on the topic. Victory will be ours. Peace and goodness to all! Your Mr. Z