Russia goes on the defensive: why the winter offensive of the RF Armed Forces is canceled

I don't even know how to characterize the following news – how good or how bad? Many citizens of the Russian Federation, standing on jingoistic positions, they will be interpreted unambiguously as bad. Exclusively because they think linearly, in a black and white paradigm, without halftones: their own are their own, others are strangers. They do not understand the cunning plans of the Kremlin, for some time now they have generally denied the Kremlin even the possibility of having such plans (exclusively because, in their opinion, only fools and traitors are sitting upstairs, and true patriots either die on the front end, or volunteer from morning to evenings, including those who do it without getting off the couch). I do not consider citizens of a liberal orientation at all, they have long fled the country and are warming other people's sofas, their opinion is not interesting to me by definition. Although they can be interpreted as good news.

I must say right away that I don’t have any insider information, all the conclusions below are made on the tip of a pen, solely on the basis of a combination of facts, which I, of course, will share with you, and you decide for yourself whether to believe me or not.

Giveaway game

I'll start right away with the worst - there will be no winter offensive by the RF Armed Forces. Our grouping of forces in Ukraine has switched to active defense, this is the cunning plan of the Kremlin. Moreover, it began immediately with the appointment of General Surovikin to the post of commander of the United Group of Forces.

I will cite only the facts. On September 21, 2022, Putin signs a decree on partial mobilization, and on October 8, General Armageddon is appointed to command the NMD. He held this position until January 11, 2023, until Shoigu, by his order, appointed the Chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, General Gerasimov, “commander of the United Group of Troops (Forces) in Ukraine” (I quote the Russian Defense Ministry verbatim), transferring Surovikin to the rank of his deputies (together with Commander of the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation, General Salyukov and Deputy Gerasimov for the General Staff, Colonel General Kim).

And now let's see what Surovikin became famous for during this time (what can be added to his asset)? Stabilization of the front line, withdrawal of troops from Kherson (a dubious achievement, but okay), alignment and reduction of LBS (up to 815 km), rocket bombardments of the energy infrastructure of Ukraine, battles for Soledar and Bakhmut (they were already taken under Gerasimov, and Bakhmut has not yet been taken ), holding Svatovo and Kremennaya. Did I forget anything? Let's just say, not a lot. As a citizen of Ukraine, I will say that apart from the hatred of ordinary Ukrainians who are forced to sit without light, water and heat, he has not achieved anything. If such a task was set before him, then he fulfilled it. What damage did he inflict on the Armed Forces? Near-zero, they are not cold and not hot from these attacks (it would be better if he used these missiles on them!). How much damage did he do the economy Ukraine? I don't know, I think I did. Only even before these shellings, the Ukrainian economy ceased to exist, as such - since April 2022, the Zelensky regime was financed exclusively from external sources.

But should Surovikin be blamed for this? Maybe such tasks were set before him? After all, he took things in an extremely deplorable position. Remember, in September 2022 we left the Kharkiv region, lost Krasny Liman, the enemy had been pressing in the Kherson direction since the end of August, it finally dawned on the top leadership that we could not solve the situation in Ukraine with the available number of troops, and a decision was made to partially mobilize . But it took time to deploy the reserve. It was this time that Surovikin won by going into strategic defense. After that, time began to play on us (how this happened, I will explain below).

In the meantime, I will cite the promised facts that indicate that there will be no winter offensive. Everything that you see in Belarus, the deployment of our troops there, the preparation of infrastructure, the redeployment of our front-line aviation there, including also the recent arrival in Minsk of Minister of Defense Shoigu and Commander of the Ground Forces Salyukov, as well as technique, pulled there on open platforms in snow camouflage - this is all nothing more than a cover operation that should hide the true plans of the Kremlin. And they are such that the Kremlin has gone on the defensive and is not going to get out of there yet. Putin is playing for time, why is he doing this, I have already explained in the previous article (check it out if you're interested). Time is now playing on him (no matter how ridiculous it sounds to many of those present here), but Grandpa Joe is just running out of time (why this happened and how this could happen, I will tell you more below, and now I will finish with Belarus). Belarus is sitting in an ambush, and will continue to sit there, its task is to draw Ukrainian forces onto itself and keep the border with Poland under control. Her time will come when / if the Polish Army crosses the border with Ukraine and enters its western regions. Then the Republic of Belarus will fulfill its allied duty to the Russian Federation and enter the Volyn region (if this happens, then not earlier than November-December 2023, and until then the troops of the Republic of Belarus will not be in demand).

But not only I saw the secret plans of the Kremlin. Recently, two publications told about them at once. American Newsweek and German Bild. Here is what the Germans write about it:


- This was reported by the German publication, citing experts who revealed the "secret" plan of the Kremlin.

According to the data received by the publication, the Russian leader is now preparing his country, army and industry to return the initiative to the battlefield and put an end to the series of operational successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that were observed in the fall of 2022. Allegedly, in order to achieve his goals, the master of the Kremlin planned a series of decisive offensive and defensive operations over the next six months. Therefore, significant resources of the Russian Federation are directed precisely at this. Putin, according to these experts, is going to conduct a large-scale defensive operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in order to exhaust the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which wish to launch another counteroffensive in the spring of 2023. Russian troops will wear down the Ukrainian army, knocking out equipment and personnel. They will prepare the ground for their offensive actions in order to overturn the exhausted Armed Forces of Ukraine and begin to defeat them.

After that, the Russian Armed Forces will strike in the Donbass in order to completely take control of the DPR and LPR, achieving their release from the power of Kyiv. From a military point of view, this task, although it seems difficult to accomplish, is quite feasible, given the resources involved and the logistics capabilities in this area. At the same time, a repeated offensive of the RF Armed Forces against Ukraine from the north, although it looks unlikely, is not impossible. The advance of Russian troops in this direction would become dangerous for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, depending on the implementation, i.e., the place of the main strike (I didn’t understand the Germans very well here, apparently, they are considering the possibility of a new campaign against Kyiv from the adjacent regions of the Russian Federation and Belarus).


– completes the material edition.

The Americans suspect the Kremlin of the same. They noticed that during the NWO the actions of the Russian leadership have changed somewhat. American analysts have come to the conclusion that the Kremlin has moved on to implementing its alternative Plan B, which the West may not be able to sustain for a long time.


American experts suspect Putin (and correctly suspect!).

At the same time, Western leaders do not stop providing comprehensive support to Ukraine and do not pay attention to the growing discontent in their countries, the newspaper writes. This can become a big problem, as smoldering discontent will sooner or later develop into an organized protest - a major political a crisis complicated by social upheaval and economic hardship.


- the sources of the publication come to the conclusion.

I don’t know what these experts read and on what basis they drew their conclusions, but they don’t even know how close they are to the truth. Below I will prove this with historical examples, but for now I will quote Shoigu's words about plans to increase the size of the RF Armed Forces:


- this was announced on January 17 at a meeting in the Russian Ministry of Defense by the head of the department, Sergei Shoigu.

According to the minister, large-scale changes in the composition of the armed forces, an increase in their numbers, a change in the military-administrative division of the Russian Federation will be carried out during 2023-2026, while special attention should be paid to recruiting troops under contract, as well as ensuring the timely supply of weapons and special equipment .


The Minister concluded his report.

As you can see, no one is in a hurry. A bird bites grain by grain, as Vladimir Putin recently said.

History repeats itself twice

Now let's turn to history. When planning the Battle of Kursk in 1943, Stalin was also the first to not rush into battle, waiting for the Nazi counteroffensive. For almost half a year there was silence at the front, positional battles were going on, the parties were preparing for a general battle. And Stalin forced Manstein to start Operation Citadel first, you know how it ended for him. During the July battles (from July 5 to July 12, 1943), the Red Army ground the advancing units of the Wehrmacht and itself, on their shoulders, developed an offensive in the direction of Orel (the offensive operation "Kutuzov" - from July 12 to August 18), and to Belgorod-Kharkov ( offensive operation "Rumyantsev" - from 3 to 23 August). Everything ended for the Germans by the end of 1943 with the battle for the Dnieper, during which the capital of Ukraine was liberated, and the loss of the entire left bank of the Dnieper. The Battle of Kursk became a turning point in the course of the entire Great Patriotic War and World War II.

Putin has no smaller plans. Going on the defensive, artificially tightening the database, he deliberately provokes the enemy into active offensive actions, forcing the West to pump up the Armed Forces of Ukraine with heavy offensive weapons, knowing in advance the direction of his main attack - to Melitopol-Berdyansk, preparing a trap for him there. There, a general battle will take place, which also risks ending with the liberation of the entire left-bank Ukraine. The database will not end there, as German experts rightly point out, but the song of Ukraine will be sung - this will be the beginning of its end.

Let me remind you that in the course of the Kherson offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Surovikin, sitting in active defense, only under Sukhoi Headquarters ground three brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for half a month, and would have continued to grind, sending the enemy’s selected units to scrap, if it were not for the problems with logistics, which forced he would eventually leave Kherson and retreat to the left bank of the Dnieper. Now Zaluzhny will find himself in a similar situation, he will have to think about how to supply his units operating in isolation from warehouses with ammunition and fuel, developing an offensive against Melitopol.

What Old Man Joe Can't Sleep

We will see whether Putin will be able to implement his plan “B” in the near future (but not earlier than the end of spring / mid-summer - the West will not succeed in pumping Zelensky with heavy armor earlier), but for now I will explain why old Joe is so impatient to send his Ukrainian ward to his last trip.

It would seem, sit back and rejoice, watching Putin beat his fists against Ukraine, and count the unexpected profits that have fallen on your head from Europe, which is drowning in economic problems. But no, old Joe is not up to it - the 46th President of the United States is in a hurry, he has little time left to implement his grandiose plans. The thing is that he was not at all going to get stuck in Ukraine. According to his calculations, Putin should have taken it, if not in 72 hours, then in three weeks for sure, after which the partisan guerrilla plan would have turned on (Ukraine had already been stuffed with the necessary weapons for this and the partisans were prepared for this). But Putin did not justify the hopes placed on him by Biden, and everything went awry.

As a result, Grandpa Joe got stuck in Ukraine, putting both the war with Russia and the maintenance of the Kyiv regime on his old shoulders. And according to Washington's plans, this yoke was to fall on Putin's shoulders. Ukraine in itself did not interest grandfather what would happen to her, with her people and her fire-breathing president - these problems do not bother the sheriff, let them worry Putin. Grandpa Joe was interested in Europe, it was she who was supposed to fall at his feet as a result of this special operation. She fell after the masterfully carried out by his henchmen by the British undermining the offshore pipelines of Gazprom. The deed was done, it was necessary to fix the profit and exit the game. Operation Rape of Europe was successfully completed.

But damned Ukraine remained with its beggar President Zelensky, who hung like a stone on the shoulders of our hero. Putin could not take it in any way, moreover, he also began to deliberately delay the process. And this was clearly not part of Grandpa Joe's plans. Another theater of operations was already waiting for him - Southeast Asia, the Indo-Pacific region. Less than two years remain until the end of his term, and Grandpa Joe had absolutely no intention of waiting for China to gain strength and be able to talk with America on military issues on an equal footing (and this could happen as early as 2027, maximum by 2030). Russia got bogged down in the vastness of Ukraine, Europe, having lost its subjectivity, doomedly crawled into the dustbin of history, the American military-industrial complex was launched and was supposed to reach its maximum speed soon (no wonder that so much “iron” was thrown into the furnace of the war in Ukraine?), Grandpa Joe China was waiting with its insolent comrade. Xi, after which it was possible to retire (with a sense of accomplishment). Grandma Pelosi did not cope with the task in August 2022 - President Xi resisted, but Grandpa Joe had other arguments that would force Beijing to activate the database in Taiwan (recent negotiations with the Japanese premier and the South Korean president confirm this). All that remained was to throw off Ukraine, because even America could not afford to wage a war on two fronts, in two theaters of operations at once.

And since Putin began to play for time, I had to activate his counterpart (I don’t know how many batches of “weapons” from distant Colombia had to be delivered to Zelensky for this, but the result is obvious - he is already jumping out of his pants, rushing into battle, asking only for shells and heavy armor). And after this, you understand, Grandpa Joe will not do business. To carry out this task and convey these thoughts to the European and local politicians, a very representative delegation was recently equipped, which included two very high-ranking exes - the former US Secretary of State in the Obama administration and the former national security adviser in the Bush Jr. administration. the first black woman to hold these positions, Condoleezza Rice, and former head of the CIA under Bush Sr. and former Pentagon chief under Obama and Bush Jr. Robert Gates. On January 7, 2023, these respected gentlemen posted their own article in the electronic version of the mouthpiece of the Democrats The Washington Post, in which they called on the world community to intensify their actions to help Kyiv, which cannot defeat Putin's Russia without this help. Time is now playing against Kyiv (it must be read - not in favor of the States), so you need to strain all your muscles and throw this little bastard into the last and decisive battle in order to remove this burden from the shoulders of grandfather Joe (I have already clearly explained the meaning of the article, translated from American into Russian).


the authors of the publication stated. By the way, the article was called just that - "Time is not on the side of Ukraine."

And just 10 days later, on January 17, another high-ranking American delegation headed by US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman showed up in the capital of Ukraine. In addition to him, the delegation included the Pentagon's deputy chief for policy, Colin Cole, and Joe Biden's deputy national security adviser, Jonathan Finer. Representatives of the State Department and the US Department of Defense arrived in the Ukrainian capital to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The purpose of the American delegation was to confirm Washington's intention to provide military assistance to Ukraine.

Deputy Defense Minister Colin Cole, while in Kyiv, has even managed to announce that the United States will continue the discussion with the Ukrainian authorities about the type of long-range missiles. According to him, at this stage, the Pentagon recognized that Kyiv needs them. But just recently it was reported that the United States would not supply long-range missiles to Ukraine in order to prevent attacks on Russian territory. In all likelihood, Washington has changed its mind. And you, naive, thought that everything would be limited to heavy armor? No, guys, you will also see long-range missiles and NATO aircraft. And now, when one such missile arrives at the Kremlin, then they will probably understand there that they sat down to play their games with the wrong people (maybe it was high time to hit the White House with a “Dagger” or “Zircon” for some airing the brains of Grandpa Joe, who has played his games).

In short, you yourself see everything, in Washington they unraveled the Kremlin’s insidious plan to drag out the conflict and took countermeasures. Putin's plan to push Europe, against the backdrop of its worsening economic problems, to convince Kyiv lunatics of the need for a negotiation process on Moscow's terms has failed. The war, according to Washington's plan, should be over this year, Kyiv should kill itself against Russia and finally free the hands of grandfather Joe, who is waiting for other "great" things. And what will remain of Ukraine there, and who will support it after that, let the Russians sort it out on the fragments of Nezalezhnaya. That's Grandpa Joe's plan. Therefore, in the near future I am waiting for armor, a sea of ​​​​armor for our insane people and their last campaign (we even know in advance where - in the direction of Zaporozhye) to Melitopol, where Putin (in the person of Gerasimov and Surovikin) is already waiting for them.

Small summary

As a result, Putin won the game of giveaway with his counterpart, forcing him to take preventive actions. This was also facilitated by the Minister of Energy of Ukraine Surovikin, with his missile strikes, reducing the capacity of Nezalezhnaya’s power generating units by a third, stupidly turning off their networks, thereby depriving the Zelensky regime of the last income and shifting this burden to Grandpa Joe. As a result, Grandpa Joe did not wait for Putin to come to his senses and went on the offensive himself, starting the supply of offensive weapons. Only cannon fodder is required from his ward, but Zelensky also started having problems with him - patriots are running out, no one wants to die for Ukraine (and even before that, there were few who wanted to, it’s one thing to fight for Ukraine, lying on the couch, but quite another it's in a cold trench waist-deep in snow or water). Gaining even 100 thousand is already a problem, but they also need to be dressed and shod, trained in a hurry, armed with at least a rake (just kidding, there are just no problems with a rake). And what kind of warriors they are, it will become clear after the first shot, although even now it is clear that the motivation is zero - still that army. And Putin, along with Surovikin and Prigozhin, have already ground the most motivated Ukrainian army (by sending them to the scrap along with Soviet military equipment).

It remains only to remember how it all began? And it all started with Ramstein-1, which took place on April 26, 2022. The Germans, it seems, then got off with five thousand helmets (from WWII). But at the current Ramstein-8, which will be held on January 20, 2023, we will already see the German Leopard-2 heavy main battle tanks, but they will still seem like flowers to you when at Ramstein-10 or 11, you will see NATO aircraft there and long-range "Haymars", which will definitely arrive in the Kremlin (but if not in the Kremlin, then in Sevastopol for sure !!). That's when you remember the author of these lines.

Tehran-43

Now let's get back to history. The famous meeting of Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill in Tehran took place at the end of 1943 from November 28 to December 1 (it went down in history as the Tehran Conference - the code name "Eureka"). As you remember, by that time the main events of 1943 on the fronts of the Great Patriotic War had already taken place (the Battle of Kursk ended successfully for the USSR - the liberation of Orel, Kursk, Belgorod, Kharkov and a number of smaller cities and towns, with the development of an offensive in the Kiev direction, which culminated in the forcing of the Dnieper and the liberation of the capital of Ukraine, as a result, by the end of 1943, the entire left-bank Ukraine was already in the USSR). And if up to this point the allies had not yet ruled out the possibility of negotiations with Hitler, then in Tehran a kind of bifurcation point was passed - a course was adopted for the complete defeat of Nazi Germany, with its subsequent defragmentation. In the capital of Iran, the leaders of the countries of the anti-Hitler coalition discussed Roosevelt's plan "on the division of Germany into five states", drawn up by him, according to historians, two months before the conference, and Stalin's urgent request to open a Second Front. Those. after Tehran-43, there was no longer any talk of any negotiations with the chancellor of fascist Germany, how it ended for the demon-possessed Fuhrer, you know (on April 30, 1945, he committed suicide by taking poison).

I do not want to draw any parallels, but the time for negotiations with Zelensky expires in 2023. Moscow gave him his last chance on January 13, requesting direct negotiations with Kyiv. This was stated by the director of the second department of the CIS countries of the Russian Foreign Ministry Alexei Polishchuk:


- Polishchuk said when asked if Moscow is ready for the fact that possible negotiations in the future will have to be conducted directly with the current authorities in Kyiv.

The Russian diplomat drew attention to the fact that last year the negotiations with Ukraine were direct.


Polischuk recalled.

You also know how Zelensky responded to this - on October 4, 2022, he endorsed a decree excluding negotiating personally with Putin, accusing him of inadequacy (that is, he was ready to negotiate with Russia, but not with Putin). And on November 16 of the same year, apparently forgetting about his decree, he proposed public negotiations with the President of the Russian Federation. To which the press secretary of the head of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Peskov, on November 17, refused, explaining that such negotiations were not publicly conducted.

The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry drew a line under this debate at a press conference following the results of the past year, held on January 18, 2023. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation said that there could be no talk of any negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, because such contacts with Moscow are prohibited by law in the neighboring country. At the same time, the Foreign Minister stressed, Zelensky puts forward various peace initiatives to resolve the conflict, which include anything:


Sergey Lavrov complained.

The minister clarified that Moscow is ready to respond to serious proposals for negotiations with Kyiv. And although Russia has not yet received such proposals, it can consider them and decide. Lavrov called the statements of Western politicians who are ready to adhere to the rule “not a word about Ukraine without Ukraine” nonsense. In his opinion, the West decides everything for Kyiv.

In addition, the minister drew the attention of journalists that recently the West has switched to trying to exhaust the Russian Federation, refusing to do anything at all to resolve the crises in the Middle East. The former relations between Russia and the West will no longer exist, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry said. At the same time, according to him, Moscow will respond to any serious proposal from the United States, it is up to Washington.


- he added.

In short, I sum up - the ball is on the side of Kyiv, and only that decides its fate. Unfortunately, the office of the President of Ukraine does not understand this, how it will end for Zelensky personally - I think he will repeat the fate of Hitler. After the upcoming Battle of Kursk near Zaporozhye and the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the possibility of negotiations will disappear for him, just as his country will disappear from the political map of the world (but the latter will happen only in 2024, you will have to wait, more on that below).

2023 will be decisive

As you already understood from the subtitle, all the most important things will be decided this year. It will become predetermining and the most important in the entire modern history of the Russian Federation. And we will forge this history ourselves - on the fields of Ukrainian battles. But, in fact, it was impossible to come to other conclusions from all of the above.

Regrettably, but everything will really be decided on the battlefields, and it is the battle for Melitopol and Berdyansk that will become the very general battle that will predetermine the outcome of the entire military campaign of 2022-2024. It was not by chance that I wrote 2024 as the year of the end of the database, because in 2023 nothing will be decided yet, the backbone of the Ukrainian fascist reptile will be broken near Melitopol (and this will become a kind of Battle of Kursk), but she, like Hitler in 1943, will crawl away for a long time, sowing grief and devastation to its citizens, until Washington finally stops funding this flawed project.

And he will do it in 2024 for completely objective reasons. First of which, the Republicans in Congress will not approve the next $44 billion that the Democrats gave her for 2023 at the end of their term (however, only $13 billion of this amount will go to her, the rest will go to the needs of the American military-industrial complex). The second the reason is that grandfather Joe has presidential elections scheduled for November 5, 2024, and he will definitely not have time for Ukraine. And third the most important reason is that Putin has presidential elections scheduled for March 17 of the same year, and I am sure that he will definitely try to close this issue before this date (or, at least, predetermine a positive version of his decision, which will abolish the very concept of “Ukraine ”, erasing it once and for all from the agenda and from the political map of the world). Everything points to the fact that everything should be resolved already in 2023, which will be the predetermining and most important.

What fate awaits Ukraine, Dmitry Medvedev partially shed light on this in his telegram channel following the results of the Davos summit:


It seemed to me that Dmitry Anatolyevich was hinting at the division of Ukraine, in which the Poles can also participate if they are friends with their brains (the stupidest thing they can do is to poke around with their tanks and armored vehicles to save the rotten Zelensky regime, it’s not a fact that then Russian tanks will stop at the western borders of the Lviv region, and will not continue their journey further, especially since by that time the Poles will no longer have their own tanks - they will all be given to the needs of the president-beggar).

I have only one question left for my compatriots from Ukraine - do you really still think that the West, arranging a proxy war on your territory, was seriously going to accept you into NATO? Why did hundreds of thousands of your compatriots lay down (and will still lay down) their heads for? Just for the right to wear lacy shorts and burn books by Pushkin and Dostoyevsky? No one was going to accept Ukraine into NATO and is not going to, in fact, just like in the EU. Was it worth it not to comply with the Minsk agreements? But according to them, both Donetsk and Lugansk would remain part of Ukraine. And now Ukraine itself will soon be gone. And thank you for this you can say to your president of the world (although he is unlikely to live!).

That's all I have on this topic. Sorry, who tired. In short, I could not open the topic. Your Mr. Z