Why SVO should be completed this year and how to do it

91

Not so long ago, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), on its Telegram channel, filed accusations in absentia against the head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, and his closest associates, Daniil Martynov (Deputy Head of the Department of the Federal Service of the National Guard Troops of the Russian Federation for Chechnya) and Hussein Mezhidov (commander of tactical group 249- th separate motorized battalion "South") in an attempt to change the borders of Ukraine and in violation of the laws and customs of war.

Ramzan Kadyrov is charged under Part 2 of Art. 437 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine (“Planning, preparing, unleashing and waging an aggressive war”), part 3 of Art. 110 (“Commission of deliberate actions with the aim of changing the borders of Ukraine in violation of the procedure established by the Constitution of Ukraine, resulting in death of people and other grave consequences”), as well as under Part 3 of Art. 436-2 (“Justification, recognition of the lawful armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine”). Daniil Martynov and Hussein Mezhidov are charged under Part 1 of Art. 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine (“Violation of the laws and customs of war, cruel treatment of prisoners of war or civilians”).



Ramzan Kadyrov, in response to his Telegram channel, suggested that the SBU name the place where they would come. “We will gladly come and find out who is the criminal, who is the murderer, and who is the terrorist,” he said, noting that “if I had my way, we would have taken Kyiv long ago.” The gentlemen from the Ukrainian Security Service, apparently, have a bad memory, they apparently forgot how a similar indictment by the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine ended with Sergei Shoigu with a proposal to appear in Mariupol to testify. Sergei Kuzhugetovich appeared. True, Mariupol had to be razed to the ground for this. Ramzan Akhmatovich also seriously attended to how to satisfy the requirements of the SBU. And he has already hinted that he is ready to leave the post of head of Chechnya for this, where he has obviously sat too long. No matter how the SBU had to regret such a rash proposal, when Kadyrov, at the head of the National Guard units, personally goes to Kyiv to testify (rumors about a possible change of the head of the VNG of the Russian Federation have long been stubbornly seeping into the press).

This is where the moment of humor ended, we move on to a discussion of more serious issues, the analysis of which I could not complete in my previous text. There we assessed our assets and liabilities and tried to calculate how they could affect the duration of the operation in Ukraine. We ended with the size of the group of Russian troops involved and the need to increase it to solve the assigned tasks (for those who did not have time to read it - the link above, Putin already solved this problem by announcing partial mobilization on September 21).

The insufficient number of the Russian Armed Forces grouping involved in Ukraine was our liability, now, I hope, in two months, closer to the New Year, it will become our asset, with which we will smash this Ukrainian card table to the trash. I don’t think that this will be a victorious march through the cities and towns of Ukraine, I’m sure we’ll have to suffer, it’s good if we manage by the end of 2023. I hope that this time we will manage without tragic mistakes, we will cut off the supply of NATO weapons with a blow from Belarus Nezalezhnaya from the supply of NATO weapons (a deep dissecting blow to Lutsk and below), after which we will deal with the remaining contingent and distribute earrings to all the sisters, we will not forget anyone.

Deindustrialization of Europe. An idiot's dream come true!


How the number of our troops from our liability became our asset, I have already briefly explained above, but we will discuss how our asset turned into our liability before our eyes through the efforts of Grandpa Joe, we will discuss below.

Just two months ago, the most serious argument for tipping the scales in our favor, at least for undermining the anti-Russian coalition, many commentators, not without reason, considered gas blackmail, beloved by Ukrainians. Covering this issue at that time, I complained only that this spring from the Belarus tractor could become a weighty argument in enlightening the brain of the broad European masses, fooled by Western propaganda, not earlier than three months after the start of the heating season, because it was for this period that the accumulated gas reserves in European underground storage facilities should have been enough, provided that the most energy-dependent European industrial production was frozen for a while. And although the Europeans already in September boasted to each other about record gas reserves in their UGS facilities, even the dumbest of them understood that these reserves were designed to smooth out daily and seasonal peaks in gas consumption, provided that it was supplied uninterruptedly through a pipe (or by sea in the case of LNG) . What will happen if the villain Putin caulks this pipe, they tried not to think.

And although the President of the European Council (the highest political body of the EU) Charles Michel convinced the citizens of the European Union that “Russia’s use of gas as a weapon will not change the EU’s resolve”, but will force the Europeans “only to accelerate their steps towards energy independence”, he for some reason forgot to notify his citizens that this path to the longed-for energy independence lies through poverty. Their poverty! And so, everything is in order - forward and with songs! Gas is everywhere in bulk, take it - I don’t want it, it’s all about its price. But for some reason, Mr. Michel modestly kept silent about the price of this gas.

In anticipation of these events, Putin even held a demonstration exercise, cutting off Russian gas supplies to the French energy corporation Engie on September 1. The most banal reason was presented - the company did not pay for the July gas supplies from Russia in full. That is why the Russian holding notified Engie of a complete suspension of gas supplies from September 1 until the moment the funds for the supplied gas are received in full.

Help: Engie owns the largest gas transmission network in Europe and is the largest underground gas storage operator in Europe in terms of capacity. The company is one of the shareholders of Nord Stream AG, the operator of the Nord Stream gas pipeline (Gazprom - 51%, Wintershall Dea and E.ON - 15,5% each, Gasunie and Engie - 9% each), and also acted as one of European investors of the Nord Stream 2 project.

Russian natural gas has been supplied to France for 45 years. During this time, total exports exceeded 427 billion cubic meters. m. The main partner of Gazprom in the French market was Engie, which currently has five long-term contracts for the supply of Russian gas. In 2021, according to the Russian Federal Customs Service, the Russian Federation exported about 11,5 billion cubic meters to France. m of natural gas (with a 5% decrease compared to the previous year), which covered 28% of last year's gas needs of this country. At the same time, France was one of the top three gas consumers of Gazprom in the European Union.

The events described happened on September 1, and the very next day Putin proved that he was not joking by stopping Nord Stream 1, naturally, for far-fetched reasons (something happened to the turbines, did they break, or what?). What the Germans were so afraid of and what the Bolsheviks warned about happened - Putin caulked the “northern pipe” by hanging a barn lock on it. Then the countdown began. Someone in Europe really felt bad, but this, according to Putin's plans, was only a subject for future bargaining. Did he think that on September 27, the cocky grandfather Joe would put an end to both the subject and the bargaining (in the literal and figurative sense of the word), nullifying Putin's main trump card and making sniffy Europe dependent on supplies of its own expensive (in every sense) American LNG?

And although more than half of the EU countries, according to the Association of Gas Infrastructure Operators of Europe, had gas reserves in their UGS at that time exceeding 93% (we are talking about Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Sweden), while the rest were approaching the 85% mark (which was even 5% more than the EU recommended level of fuel reserves), this now did not save them at all from the prospects of a cold winter. And the culprit of this was not the villain Putin at all, but the kindest-hearted grandfather Joe. As a result, those who, introducing the next, 7th package of sanctions, which provides for the abolition of the "Schengen" for Russians, said that "traveling to Europe is not a right, but a privilege", will soon learn in his own skin that obtaining energy resources is also a privilege. 95% of Russians do not go to any Europe, Turkey and Egypt are enough for them, and those who have traveled before will survive, but in my opinion, no one there has even seriously thought about how Europe will live without cheap Russian gas . And it would be worth it!

Back in late August, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and policy Josep Borrell warned that the EU would soon face serious difficulties due to sanctions against Russia. At the same time, he emphasized that the West "should be ready to pay the price of freedom." Well, Borrell did not deceive! Since, as a result of Grandpa Joe’s underwater “research”, the gentlemen of Europe will have to print their egg-cup earlier than expected, which will lead to the depletion of their UGS not by February 2023, as they planned, but by December of this year, which will force these heat-loving gentlemen to replenish them in urgently at the expense of LNG, which is more expensive than pipe gas, which will result not in the freezing of Europe, unfortunately, but in an increase in the cost of utility bills for all its residents without exception.

And most importantly, this will lead to a halt of the entire European industry, in technological the cycle of which includes natural gas and products of its processing, which, in turn, will cause an increase in unemployment, social tension and an avalanche-like deindustrialization of the Old World. As a result, Grandpa Joe's plan will be implemented in full, Europe will go to feed America, since its products will become uncompetitive due to the high cost of raw materials and electricity. Enterprises will not be able to work at a loss, they will close, employees will go out into the street, which will collapse the purchasing power of the population and lead to an outflow of capital, guess where? That's right, America. As a result, Europe is in the ass, Biden is the champion, and sanctions will also be imposed on Russia and Putin personally for this.

As a result, Ukraine's path towards de-industrialization and return to the Stone Age Europe will pass according to an accelerated program, if it took the non-brothers 8 years for this, then enlightened Europeans will manage in a year. And in a year, in just a year, we will not recognize the old Europe. It is not we who will go to them to drink coffee near Montmartre and go to the Vienna Opera, but they will come to us to wash, insert teeth and warm up. Everything returns to normal - Europe returns to its origins in the Stone Age. Instead of the Europeanization of Ukraine, there was a rapid Ukrainization of Europe. On this one can fix a sad fact - the dream of idiots has come true, welcome to the stone age! Welcome!

Putin's last asset


As a result, Europe is in the ass, but will this make it easier for us? At a time when the Alzheimer's patient has deprived Moscow of its last trump card, it's time to see what we have left in the asset? The last asset was our budget. More precisely, its surplus. When all the countries of the world, without exception, fell into recession, we managed to maintain balance through the efforts of Mishustin, moreover, the Russian ruble also strengthened against the US dollar, when all other currencies, including the vaunted euros, British pounds and Swiss francs, fell prostrate before him. And this is against the backdrop of the ongoing operation in Ukraine! From which we can conclude that Mishustin prepared for the NWO better than Putin's friend Shoigu. But even his margin of safety may not be enough if the operation is delayed. And it seems to be dragging on, and when it ends, no one knows.

The budget surplus, which we have been legitimately proud of for these six months, has slowly faded away, since the sanctions, although with a temporary lag, are doing their dirty work. As before, half of our income comes from the oil and gas sector, and the enemies continue to saw their legs under them - from August 10, an embargo on the coal trade was hung out in front of us, from December 5 they promise to ban trading in oil (at the current high prices), and from February 5 - more and oil products. The West is playing for the long haul and we let it do it.

Here are the bare statistics: the deficit of the federal budget of the Russian Federation in the summer of 2022 amounted to 1,36 trillion rubles, compared with a surplus of 635 billion for the same period in 2021. For 6 months, from March to August 2022, a budget deficit of 400 billion rubles was recorded, while a year ago we had a surplus of 1,61 trillion rubles. If we take statistics for 9 months, from January to August 2022, then we have a surplus curve of 138 billion against a surplus of 1,08 trillion in 2021. You can see the dynamics yourself - the decline is rapid, especially in the last six months. Mishustin is no magician, sanctions work.

This year, given the high revenue base of September-December 2021, revenues are expected to decline by 15% at par (it was 9,6 trillion, and may become 8,2 trillion), while expenses, on the contrary, will increase by 23-25 % with special needs of the military and humanitarian units, plus the implementation of infrastructure projects, we also do not forget about targeted support for the population and subsidies the economy (it was 10,1 trillion, and may become 12,8 trillion in spending). All this will create a federal budget deficit of about 4,6 trillion from September to December, and maybe worse, so you have to get into the egg. Let's not forget that the Americans halved this little egg for us.

Summary


As you can see, the picture is bleak - we can't afford a long war, we can only win at a sprint distance, our strength is not enough for a marathon. Of all the assets, we only have people left, but they also need to be put on, dressed, armed and trained. And this business is not only difficult, but also not one or two months. Yes, and throwing them into the furnace of a war, from which only the Americans benefit, will somehow not be in a state way. There are only two ways out - either to raise the stakes as much as possible, calling to war not miserable Ukraine, but its overseas curators, offering them as an ultimatum either to end the war in Ukraine, or to face off with us on nuclear pistols (no more and no less!), take for fear, since we still have an advantage in this component, it’s stupid not to use it, I’m sure they won’t risk it, because Ukraine is not worth it. Another option is to try to negotiate with Biden, take a breather for two years, waiting for the arrival of the Trump Republicans, who have a completely different agenda. But what will make Biden agree, I do not know - he is more than satisfied with the existing situation. The third option is to continue to smash your forehead against Ukraine, incurring human and financial losses. We are no strangers, but this is exactly what Washington wants Russia to bleed, fighting with the "brotherly" non-brotherly people to the delight of Grandpa Joe. But we must take into account that in the long run the escalation potential of the collective West is higher than ours. On equal terms, we can compete with him only on nuclear pistols. But there may not be winners. Because everyone will lose.

At the same time, the amazing degree of infantilism of our society is striking. Putin introduces martial law in four regions of the Russian Federation, in eight more - a medium level of response, in other subjects of the Southern and Central federal districts, including the capital, an increased level of readiness is being introduced, and most Russians continue to watch as if nothing had happened series to discuss news football-hockey and wash the bones of the participants of the "Ice Age" and Pugacheva-Galkin, who left the Russian Federation. Russia is on the verge of collapse, faced with an existential threat in the face of Ukraine and its sponsors, and the careless Russians do not seem to notice this.

Putin's latest move to create a Special Coordinating Council headed by Mishustin to meet the needs arising in the course of a special military operation (including in terms of the supply and repair of weapons, military and special equipment, materiel, medical and sanitary services, repair, restoration, construction and installation and other work, logistics), which is an analogue of the GKO (State Defense Committee) during the Second World War, should have enlightened them, but no - war is war, and cinema and dinner are on schedule.

What can I say here, just remember the story of my father, who during the years of the Second World War forged a victory shield at the famous Chelyabinsk Tankograd, where he was evacuated in the fall of 1941 together with the Kharkov Locomotive Plant named after. Comintern, the very famous lettered 183rd and 75th factory, in whose design bureau Koshkin and Morozov created our famous "thirty-four". The director of the 75th (motor) plant, which moved to Chelyabinsk, was Isaak Moiseevich Zaltsman. The personality is legendary. The legend says that one day in 1942 the foreman of the workshop came to him and said that the plan could not be fulfilled by his workshop. Saltzman did not say anything, just picked up the phone and, without dialing the number (supposedly via direct communication), reported to the other side of the wire: “Comrade Stalin! I have one of my subordinate foremen here - the heads of the workshop - says that he cannot fulfill your plan ... How to shoot? Understood. I obey! Then he climbs into the table and pulls out a gun. Needless to say, the plan was even exceeded in the end. How they worked, under what conditions - this is another story, the current generation of managers never dreamed of such a thing. At the same time, everyone was rushing to the front. My father ran away twice with echelons of finished products (an interesting fact - they painted the tanks so as not to waste time, special teams of women are already on the way on the move on open platforms both in winter and in summer). After the second escape, Zaltsman called him to him (dad worked as a shop mechanic) and said: “If you run away again, you will go to the tribunal! Am I here, or something, alone with women and children and small tanks, will I rivet ?! Such were the times.

What will be the conclusions? The war must be ended. Not affordable - we can not pull for a long time. How to do it, I told earlier. If that option does not work, then it is necessary to break it now - in November-December of this year, to break completely and irrevocably, on the shoulders of the retreating enemy that did not take Kherson, with a blow to Nikolaev - Odessa with access to Pridnestrovie, in parallel with this - cutting a blow from above, from Belarus on the right bank of the Dnieper - a blow to Lutsk and below, with the closure of the ring. This is exactly what our enemy is so afraid of, what he is waiting for and what he can no longer prevent. Surovikin is set for this. There are forces for this, they are already accumulating on the distant approaches (in the battle for Moscow, the decisive turning point in the battle was also inflicted by the Siberian divisions of the Reserve of the Headquarters of the High Command). I can make a mistake only in terms, and then no more than a month or two to the right.

This concludes the review of our assets and liabilities. Sorry if this upset anyone - I have no other, more joyful news for you. Your Mr. Z
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  2. Nelton
    Nelton
    +4
    24 October 2022 18: 39
    this will lead to a halt of the entire European industry, the technological cycle of which includes natural gas and its products

    Stop gassing.
    Europe will pay a little more for LNG than Asia - and that's it.

    In the 197s, Europe withstood a 28-fold increase in oil prices, from $1.21 to $35 per OPEC barrel.
    And she still lived better than the regions of the RSFSR, where at the end of those 197s they began to introduce coupons on the sly.

    There are only two ways out - either to raise the stakes as much as possible, calling to war not miserable Ukraine, but its overseas curators

    Why, then, was it necessary to get into "miserable Ukraine" at all and present oneself as aggressors?

    Another option is to try to negotiate with Biden
    But what will make Biden agree, I don't know.

    those. with your TK there is only one option left - to wave a vigorous loaf ....
    1. Moray Boreas
      Moray Boreas
      0
      24 October 2022 18: 46
      This whole campaign will end in a nuclear conflict. It can be seen that the process is only getting worse, and the situation is degrading. At the top, it is already easy to talk about nuclear strikes, dirty bombs, and so on.
    2. passing by
      passing by
      +6
      24 October 2022 20: 04
      Europe did not build factories for Ukrainians and palaces for Asians... Europe did not engage in altruism... While Russians in Russia during the USSR saw sausage either in the movies or in Moscow, Europe milked the colonies.
    3. Valentine
      Valentine
      +1
      25 October 2022 16: 12
      Quote from Nelton.
      there is only one option left - to wave a vigorous loaf.

      No, Oleg, do not wave, but apply, and nothing else. Why? Yes, because the "hyena of Europe", i.e. Poland and Zap. Ukraine, i.e. Galicia is not our relatives and brothers, but 100% the opposite, our fierce enemies, and between them from north to south, there is a state border 550 km long. Through which all weapons, ammunition and fuel are supplied for the Ukrainian army, from which we suffer considerable losses, and are sitting on the defensive, and + even the lack of human reserves in our theater of operations, and so, the way out of this situation, in the name of saving Russia, there can be only one urgent strike using TNW of low power along the entire line of this border for its entire length, placing a virtual fence of nuclear funnels there, and not crossing the EU border by a single meter, after which all deliveries of weapons, etc. from the entire West and the USA will be stopped, BUT ... .(very big BUT) - before this action, warn the whole world with a demand to stop supplying the fascist-terrorist state with all types of weapons and mercenaries, otherwise .... and how the "wind rose" will decide there is not our business, but up to borders of 1939, and this is also 500 km. , it will not reach, although there may be small costs in our direction, but we have no other real way out, we cannot resist a tenfold superiority in human and military resources in front of the "collective West" led by the United States.
      And I declare with 101% confidence that after this there will be no retaliatory strikes against us - "one's own shirt is closer to the body" than plunging the world into a nuclear apocalypse, and everyone understands this. And yet, I don’t care about the dislikes of the “notebook” Ukrainian Cossacks, who have already occupied this resource, and are conducting their agitation here in a sort of slippery and muddy language.
      1. Nelton
        Nelton
        0
        25 October 2022 17: 58
        Quote: Valentine
        we cannot resist a tenfold superiority in human and military resources in front of the "collective West" led by the United States.

        I agree.
        And it was obvious even 9 months ago, when the SVO started.
        Like that, they will not meet with flowers.
        The question is, why was it necessary to start it?

        Just do not talk about the people of Donbass.
        Evacuation from the 20 km zone of Donetsk-Lugansk would be 100 times less expensive.
        all the more so now that things are moving towards the evacuation of a 100 km zone, both in the Kherson-Melitopol steppes and in the Belgorod-Kursk-Bryansk regions.

        Quote: Valentine
        not to wave, but to apply, and nothing else.

        I won’t speak for people’s lives, it obviously doesn’t matter to you.

        But it will greatly, greatly increase the likelihood that
        that at one moment all the Strategic Missile Forces of the Russian Federation will be taken out by a quick, hard attack.
        And air defense / missile defense and everything else will work like on the Moscow cruiser.
        And then they will go through the decision-making centers.

        Are we betting too much?
        Moreover, the maximum gain is the territories devastated by the war with an unfriendly population, with the added weight of the need to wage a monstrous arms race with the same west.
        And there is reason to believe that after the use of nuclear weapons, the remaining relatively loyal countries will also send us.
        1. Valentine
          Valentine
          +3
          25 October 2022 18: 38
          Quote from Nelton.
          The question is, why was it necessary to start it?

          Then the Galicians would have come to us in a year and a half, but already in the status of the "Fourth Reich"

          Quote from Nelton.
          And there is reason to believe that after the use of nuclear weapons, the remaining relatively loyal countries will also send us

          You should not think so - "the remaining relatively loyal countries" also hate Europe as their recent colonialists, although remember Hiroshima and Nagasaki with "Baby" and "Fat Man" - and nothing, the Japanese Yankees are licking their ass.,

          Quote from Nelton.
          Are we betting too much?

          And what, I wonder, is your option - to crawl on your knees with a petition to Uncle Joe in the White House?
          1. Nelton
            Nelton
            +1
            26 October 2022 10: 08
            Quote: Valentine
            Galicia in a year and a half would have come to us

            Where would they come? recapture Lugansk?
            Over the past year and a half (not counting 8 years before that), it was possible and necessary to create defense in the LDNR, saturate air defense and artillery with launchers with LDNR identification marks, but with target designations from the infrastructure of the Russian Federation.

            And so - one to one about Afghanistan in the 198s, the party organizers crucified the same that if the troops were withdrawn from there, then the spooks would go across the border.

            Quote: Valentine
            what, interesting, is your option

            To begin with, to admit to ourselves that they screwed up catastrophically with all this SVO.
            That the maximum gain (as it was, and remains) is a territory with a disloyal population of many millions, with an added weight in the form of a sharply aggravated confrontation with the West.

            we cannot resist a tenfold superiority in human and military resources in front of the "collective West" led by the United States

            And this is not at all a fact, then this gain is achievable even with the use of tactical nuclear weapons (only the territory is still with radioactive contamination). The "fence" must be done not from Belarus to the Carpathians, but from Belarus to Odessa, incl. right across Transnistria.

            Further - to correct the situation, for good, completely different people should.

            In any case, reduce the intensity of confrontation.
            Let the "Galitsai" beat our defenses a little, cool off from the euphoria of the first successes.
            The West is not eager to transfer strike weapons to them (its current front line as a whole does not bother), but is ready to support their air defense / missile defense.
            Cool down to the state of "no war - no peace" with periodic skirmishes with not very long-range weapons.

            Finally revive the BRZHDK, complete the northern latitudinal passage, and let them knock with wheels 24/365.

            And it depends on the economy.
            In general, it is still holding up much better than forecasts.
            like a cherry on a cake - "Ochakovskaya" coolcola not only replaces imports, but also went for export.
            https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/148707/

            Soslan Loloew_2 (Soslan Loloew) Today, 03:38

            I'm not talking about biolaboratories!

            And do not say.
            For enchanting nonsense.

            upd:
            and another of the proposals - to send to the front all anika warriors who advocate an escalation of hostilities on an extraordinary basis.
            Let deeds be responsible for words, regardless of gender, age, health and rank / rank.
            1. Valentine
              Valentine
              0
              26 October 2022 11: 56
              Quote from Nelton.
              and another of the proposals - to send to the front all anika warriors who advocate an escalation of hostilities on an extraordinary basis.

              And you read the comments of the underage from Yekaterinburg, who literally all speak with hatred about the guys who went to serve in the NWO, rude and scoffing at their expense, as if this is not a Russian region, but part of Galicia. And I served my own and won back, so they won’t trust me by age and bring cartridges. And take my word for it, it will not do without tactical nuclear weapons, or on your knees to Biden, and even then after Ukraine.
              1. Nelton
                Nelton
                0
                26 October 2022 13: 15
                Quote: Valentine
                And I served mine and won back

                I had no doubt that those who zealously call for bombing and throwing mobs into battle will find weighty excuses themselves not to go into the trenches under the bombs.

                Quote: Valentine
                me by age

                "grandfather is old, he doesn't care" (C)
                If only they had pity on their grandchildren.

                Quote: Valentine
                on your knees to Biden

                Well, we are on our knees before Erdogan and Xi Jinping ...
          2. Sergei Fonov
            Sergei Fonov
            0
            26 October 2022 19: 57
            In my opinion, the SVO was necessary, another thing is how they prepared for it ?. If now they are making decisions about tailoring uniforms, then other questions are just scary to ask.
        2. Fangaro
          Fangaro
          0
          25 October 2022 19: 24
          But is there a lot of people left after the use of nuclear weapons? Even to send us.
          1. Valentine
            Valentine
            -1
            26 October 2022 07: 01
            After Chernobyl, a thirty-kilometer exclusion zone was assigned, and this one will be no more on either side of the border.
        3. Soslan Loloew_2
          Soslan Loloew_2
          +1
          26 October 2022 03: 38
          I “forgot” to write something about the eviction of the population of Crimea! But with the NATO bases, as I decided to “negotiate”, which were already in Banderstat, I’m not talking about biological laboratories! I won't delve further, although I can!
          1. Valentine
            Valentine
            -1
            26 October 2022 07: 06
            Quote: Soslan Loloew_2
            And with NATO bases, as I decided to negotiate

            But there’s no need to negotiate, the next launches will already be strategic, according to previously set goals in the United States, but they need it because of some enraged non-country?
      2. Peace Peace.
        Peace Peace.
        0
        26 October 2022 03: 07
        To use tactical nuclear weapons, any leader of the country must have a very strong fighting spirit. That is, detachment and non-attachment to the mundane.
        1. Valentine
          Valentine
          +1
          26 October 2022 07: 19
          As our Guarantor said-

          if there is a fight, you need to hit first ....

          So, if A said, you need to say B, and not be a slob, and we have many more in the country's leadership who will crawl on their knees to the White House, just to save their "hard-earned, squeezed out" from our people. And the Yankees are a nation of cowards and scum who yell the loudest, but do nothing when it's scary, and an example of this is the DPRK and comrade Eun, who has iron Faberge, and the country itself is no more than a volleyball court, and the Americans are afraid of him.
          1. Peace Peace.
            Peace Peace.
            0
            26 October 2022 13: 27
            Yes, Brother Eun is still that beaver. I think South Korea and Japan themselves are begging the Yankees not to touch Eun if he doesn’t draw any lines.
          2. VladZ
            VladZ
            -2
            26 October 2022 13: 54
            Quote: Valentine
            As our guarantor said

            Exactly, exactly. I present our Guarantor, standing in a St. Petersburg gateway, surrounded by Western gopota and repeating these words ...
  3. Moray Boreas
    Moray Boreas
    -4
    24 October 2022 18: 41
    Most likely it will be like this: Europe will cool down by the New Year, and the thoughts of the Europeans will be more constructive, but this will not change anything, replacing the Democrats with the Republicans will not give anything, the war will continue. By the end of the next summer, 2023, the defense industry complex of the Russian Federation will finally begin to give the front what it needs, they will replace the stupid generals in the RF Ministry of Defense, and progress will be made in promotion. But this will lead to an acceleration of the onset of the TMB nuclear phase. And there ... chickens are counted in the fall.
  4. Valera75
    Valera75
    +7
    24 October 2022 18: 52
    What will be the conclusions? The war must be ended. Unaffordable - we can not pull for a long time

    The longer the NWO drags on, the more problems come out. I had assumptions earlier and now I also think that the NWO will turn in our favor in November-January and we will finish 90% in April-June. But it seems to me that there will be partial mobilization in the spring, or the current they just won’t stop, but they’ll recruit quietly and little by little. I think they’ll call me up in the spring, 300 tons, I think this is very little, we need another 150-300 tons, and volunteers and PMCs alone may not get so much over the winter.
    1. Moray Boreas
      Moray Boreas
      -3
      24 October 2022 18: 58
      In the summer of 2023, martial law will be declared throughout the Russian Federation. We will all be there.
  5. Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi
    -2
    24 October 2022 19: 04
    As a result, Ukraine's path towards de-industrialization and return to the Stone Age Europe will pass according to an accelerated program, if it took the non-brothers 8 years for this, then enlightened Europeans will manage in a year. And in a year, in just a year, we will not recognize the old Europe. It is not we who will go to them to drink coffee near Montmartre and go to the Vienna Opera, but they will come to us to wash, insert teeth and warm up. Everything returns to normal - Europe returns to its origins in the Stone Age.

    Another agitprop nonsense!

    Summary
    As you can see, the picture is bleak - we can't afford a long war, we can only win at a sprint distance, our strength is not enough for a marathon.

    But this idea is much closer to the truth ...
  6. Vladimir Golubenko
    Vladimir Golubenko
    +3
    24 October 2022 19: 12
    Frightening! Russia does not lose wars. And this one will win.
    1. Vladimir80
      Vladimir80
      -2
      25 October 2022 11: 04
      re-read the history textbook, unfortunately lost, and more than once (Crimean, Russian-Japanese, p.m.v.) ... and if you draw parallels - the situation is similar now, it becomes very sad!
      1. Peace Peace.
        Peace Peace.
        +2
        26 October 2022 03: 19
        Those losses do not go anywhere with the present time. Scales and opportunities are not the same. If, God forbid, the Anglo-Saxons take over, then the threat will be to the Russian nation as such. All dogs are hung so that being called Russian will become something of a household name. People will immediately remember that the ancestors were Finno-Ugrians, Poles, etc. And then the threat will hang over the Russian Orthodox Church, which the Vatican has not yet recognized even as a sister of the church. Key positions will be occupied by Ukrainian comrades, but they do not bother with tolerance. So, to be or not to be, that is the question.
  7. passing by
    passing by
    -2
    24 October 2022 19: 16
    chelyabinsk, of course, is wonderful ... only on the Kharkov T-34 they completely drove marriage ... everything that a Ukrainian does not touch everything turns into guamno ... and after the war Kharkov guamno produced after the USSR ... one cracking armor and flying apart like plywood , what are the tanks worth.
    1. Volkonsky
      Volkonsky
      +1
      24 October 2022 19: 24
      "Diagnosis - no mental abnormalities found! Just - d * fool!" (extract from the medical history)

      where was the T-34 created? in Chelyabinsk or Uralvagonzavod? my father created it, at a time when no one divided the country into Ukrainians and Russians, but what did you create?
      1. k7k8
        k7k8
        +2
        24 October 2022 20: 41
        Quote: Volkonsky
        what did you create?

        What, don't you see? Or don't you understand? He created the guano he wrote about in his post. Unfortunately (although, perhaps, fortunately), people like it are incapable of anything else.
    2. Fangaro
      Fangaro
      0
      25 October 2022 19: 31
      That is, if something comes from Ukraine or Ukrainian hands, then always through a stump-deck? What are they releasing right now? Or because of cracking armor and tanks flying like plywood, they don’t have equipment? Except Western, of course.
  8. Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar
    +8
    24 October 2022 20: 12
    Forces and means are calculated for a specific task, tactics and strategy. According to media reports, the number of Russian troops at the beginning of the NMD was 120-170 thousand people. and this is to the front from Kharkov to Mariupol with a length of more than 1 thousand km. we get 120-170 people. per 1 km., and taking into account the number of crews of tanks, guns, air defense systems and other weapons, infantry per 1 km. even less is obtained. If, by analogy with all the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (approximately 2 million people, of which 1 million are in combat units), we take half, we get somewhere around 60-80 people. for 1 km. Based on this, the offensive and defense were kept at the expense of superiority in firepower, clearing the way forward and blocking the way for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
    We called up 300 thousand from the reserve, plus volunteers, plus the formations of the DNR-LNR, Kherson and Zaporozhye provinces, plus PMCs, we will get from 500 to 700 thousand in total for state education with a population of about 40 million people. with an unclear task and an indistinct strategy for waging war. Even the enemy military say that if the Russian Federation cut off Ukraine from NATO arms supplies and disrupted the transport network that allows the Armed Forces to maneuver forces and means, then the NWO could already end not only with the liberation of the DPR-LPR, Zaporozhye, Kherson, but also other provinces.
    1. Peace Peace.
      Peace Peace.
      +1
      26 October 2022 03: 24
      Why the logistics are not destroyed is a mystery, and no one has an answer.
    2. Soslan Loloew_2
      Soslan Loloew_2
      +1
      26 October 2022 03: 48
      In general, there are a lot of questions for our strategists from the very beginning of the SVO, and this is from a person who does not understand military affairs, I mean myself, it may be wrong, but the results speak for themselves!
  9. Bakht
    Bakht
    +2
    24 October 2022 20: 55
    The budget deficit and surplus are all interesting and informative. But everything is good in comparison. The monthly budget deficit in the US shows that the deficit there has skyrocketed by hundreds of billions in the last month alone.
    How are the States doing? Elementary. There, simply, without advertising, they turned on the printing press again. How can Russia cope? I don't know, but the printing press is not turned on yet. For the simple reason that, although small, there is a surplus.
    1. Peace Peace.
      Peace Peace.
      +1
      26 October 2022 03: 26
      The Americans will sell their deficit with a vengeance to other countries, as they did before. And we?
      1. Bakht
        Bakht
        0
        26 October 2022 10: 05
        That's just the point, they can't sell it. Major Treasury holders are dumping them. And inflation is back in America.
        Russia may well print several billion rubles for the very surplus mentioned in the article.
        In principle, inflation itself is even necessary. Economists say that if the growth of the economy is higher than the growth of inflation, then no problems arise.
        There is another solution to the problem. The announced sale of resources for rubles actually turned out to be a sham. And if the leadership of Russia decides on a real sale for rubles, then Russia will easily transfer its deficit to other countries.
        1. Peace Peace.
          Peace Peace.
          0
          26 October 2022 13: 19
          Treasury is a casino where the hosts give a spoonful of honey to the chosen ones, and they themselves slurp five. That is, this is the US cash cow. All our reserves are devalued by printing papers, for your trillion dollars they will always have 10 trillion. Here it is guarded by the Anglo-Saxons. And our bureaucrats are bewitched by the dollar, many do not identify themselves with Russia, and are unlikely to go to alleviate the deficit.
          And who is dropping it? China 9% and Russia, the rest are holding. They also squeezed 1,2 trillion from the Arabs, they were offended and began to move closer to Russia, but will it work.
          1. Bakht
            Bakht
            0
            26 October 2022 13: 26
            9% of Chinese is more than 1 trillion. Throws off Japan, India and Saudi Arabia. The process is slowly going on and there are no signs that it will stop.
            1. Peace Peace.
              Peace Peace.
              0
              26 October 2022 17: 17
              Oh well, China has only 1,06 trillion. He threw off 100 billion and then a long time ago. Throwing off other countries is at the audit level. Who else?
              1. Bakht
                Bakht
                +1
                26 October 2022 19: 29
                Guilty. Correctly. About 100 billion

                In general, the 12 largest countries - holders of US debt this year have reduced their investment in US paper to the lowest level in the last ten years. Moreover, they are actively leaving them. For example, over the past year, treasuries were sold for $150 billion. "So far, China's exit from American securities does not show signs of a wholesale sell-off. Otherwise, US bond prices would have collapsed. In general, the exit of such a mastodon holder as China would be apocalyptic for the United States," says Andriy Shevchishin.
                According to Kush, the largest bondholder is the Fed itself, and now it is expected to partly sell off its portfolio. "True, not sharply - no more than 20 billion dollars a month. In total, they will sell securities for 300 billion. And, as expected, paper prices may sink against this background," Kusch said.

                https://inosmi.ru/20220922/ekonomicheskiy-krizis-256266473.html
                1. Peace Peace.
                  Peace Peace.
                  0
                  28 October 2022 01: 36
                  Well, 31 trillion of debt and a global drawdown of 300 billion is just 1% if I'm not mistaken.
                  1. Bakht
                    Bakht
                    0
                    28 October 2022 08: 32
                    It's not a $300 billion drawdown.
                    Treasuries are actually IOUs. Their returns were meagre. But they were bought because of the high reliability. It's like a bank deposit. The more reliable the bank, the lower the profitability of the deposit.
                    The Fed raised the discount rate to 3,5%. Servicing the $31 trillion debt becomes unsustainable. This is about 1 trillion a year (for example, the entire budget of the Pentagon is 700 billion). In fact, the US is bankrupt. This is the main reason for dumping treasuries. No one will incur money in a bank that has such financial indicators. What does the bank do in this case? He raises the yield on his obligations to attract suckers. The US Federal Reserve does the same. They raise the yield on treasuries and at the same time throw them off themselves.
                    When the bomb goes off, only the White House and the Fed know.

                    Under such conditions, the confiscation of the assets of countries (Libya, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, ... further any country), the imposition of sanctions (especially secondary ones, which is absolutely illegal) and the increase in the Fed rate makes the dollar a rather toxic currency.
                    But, paradoxically, the dollar is strengthening against all currencies without exception, except for the ruble. The states have moved on to robbing the whole world (including their allies).

                    So. Treasury is an unreliable financial asset. Dumping them means the Fed has to buy them back. But the Fed itself wants to dump treasuries. Everyone will draw their own conclusion. Should he buy high-yielding papers or not?
                    1. Peace Peace.
                      Peace Peace.
                      0
                      31 October 2022 07: 47
                      I didn't ask about that, so they know. Who is dropping it?
                      1. Bakht
                        Bakht
                        0
                        31 October 2022 14: 49
                        I wrote and provided a link. Japan, China, Saudi Arabia, the Fed itself
                      2. Peace Peace.
                        Peace Peace.
                        0
                        31 October 2022 17: 12
                        "Throwing off" within 1% floor is practically nothing. But 20 at least 15% is a collapse. And it is not and will not be. That is, the entire system of colonization of the land by the Anglo-Saxons is built on this system, and they will never give it to anyone. Selling inflation is the basis of any capitalist country, printing money in excess of its value, that is, in debt, is the robbery of its population by governments. And the Yankees are just its founders.
                      3. Bakht
                        Bakht
                        +1
                        31 October 2022 17: 32
                        The fact of the matter is that the system has worked for the last 50-60 years. I'm talking about American imperialism. The British worked differently. Although the beads were sold before.
                        But now the system is not working. If China dumped 1 billion out of 100 trillion, then this is not 1%. And obviously not a statistical error. According to Bloomberg's forecasts, the Fed will raise the rate to 4,5-5% by the end of the first quarter of 2023. Then the unknown. Treasury yields are already in the region of 3,5-4% at the moment. There are different repayment periods.

                        I feel it in my pocket. I personally saw a 50% increase in stock returns. Well, or about 50%. But that doesn't make me happy. Because the value of the shares themselves fell from $60 to $40. I bought this for $60. And at the peak they were worth $115. I do not want to throw them off now (just like China). Lose a few thousand evergreens. So I'm waiting for Armageddon in the hope that I will catch the moment when they grow in price. Maybe I'll wait. But in principle, I have already written off this money as a liability. Maybe you'll get lucky. If it goes up to $60, I'll sell it right away.

                        The same with treasuries. They are not thrown off en masse, not because the Anglo-Saxons do not allow it. This is the pure pragmatism of the Chinese Central Bank. Drops off slowly. So far, I have only found an article by Bloomberg that the sale of treasuries continues. The scale is unknown. And the second unknown is the Fed's printing press. According to one report, it has been stopped. Other sources write that it was launched again. Mess around.
                      4. Peace Peace.
                        Peace Peace.
                        0
                        2 November 2022 07: 59
                        Geopolitics is not built on pragmatism, an example is today's Europe and the entire collective West. China - and what about China, all its strategic weapons, accurate to the nearest cm, under the guns of the states. Target designation and tracking after starlink increased significantly. And what about China? If you do not control, or at least on an equal footing, the strike forces of the Yankees, then your economy is completely dependent. Sanctions, blockades, boycotts, etc., will be rotten.
              2. Bakht
                Bakht
                0
                26 October 2022 22: 06
                I found data for April on the Internet.
                https://rostsber.ru/publish/investment/treasures_sell_off_jun.html

                In March, Japan was the leader in getting rid of green papers. I must say that in April, Tokyo did not stop the sale ... 13,9 billion "went under the hammer." Together with 73,9 billion in March, this is a very serious blow to the US public debt balance.

                And there. The impact of finance on politics

                Something tells me that the "mess" in Taiwan cannot begin until much of China's investment in US government debt has been sold off...
                1. Peace Peace.
                  Peace Peace.
                  0
                  31 October 2022 07: 50
                  I think the end of October, and you write the March news. Even with them, this is plus or minus 300 billion.
                  1. Bakht
                    Bakht
                    0
                    31 October 2022 14: 50
                    So there are no newer ones. If you find, not considered for work, tell me.
                    But, I feel, I myself will have to look for
                    1. Peace Peace.
                      Peace Peace.
                      0
                      31 October 2022 17: 02
                      I was just talking about this, that there are no stuffing, etc. of public debt and cannot be. There are sales within a 1% margin of error. And that's it! No one can just take and sell all their bonds, the Anglo-Saxons will not "permit". The current Russia was able to do a bit, and then 350 lard was squeezed out in a brazen public. And the rest, there is also an opinion from "sources" that they cannot use their shares of no more than 10-15%, more than only with the participation of American companies and again, their weapons are unlimited for armament.
                      1. Bakht
                        Bakht
                        0
                        31 October 2022 17: 39
                        The United States and China are almost in a trade war. And China is not Russia. They will throw everything off and not even blink an eye. They just don't want the market to crash. Trade between China and the US is huge. The collapse of the US market will lead to the collapse of the Chinese. They are tied with one string. I would even say rope. This is the whole reason for China's cautious actions.
                        But China is pursuing a different policy that not everyone is talking about. He wants to issue his own yuan-denominated treasuries. Preparations for this are underway.
                        The only problem with this operation is that American Treasuries have never been defaulted. And they are considered (still considered) reliable (no one can say anything about the Chinese ones).
                        But I wouldn't be fooled. States may well throw out such a trick as a default. I was especially afraid of this under Trump. He's a bankruptcy specialist. Survived not that 5, not that 7 bankruptcies. And he became a billionaire.
                        But this did not happen when he was president. The situation on the markets is now clearly unstable. And the real asset will not be treasuries or exchanges. Real goods for real goodies (but not money). This will be our near future.
                      2. Peace Peace.
                        Peace Peace.
                        0
                        2 November 2022 07: 37
                        Treasuries not supported by a military component are fairy tales of 1000 and one night. China and Taiwan showed that it is a small section, a paragraph from there. And the verbs "may", "near future", etc., are incompatible with the economy. So what do we have now, there are no "skids" from China, from anyone.
                      3. Bakht
                        Bakht
                        +1
                        2 November 2022 08: 06
                        I agree that the dollar is backed only by military power. The fact that the Treasuries are not thrown off, still does not agree. Reset is in progress. New data will appear, we will see the dynamics. Without numbers, just according to media publications, the dumping of treasuries continues.
                        According to the Fed, there is only information that the discharge is going on at 20 billion a month (this is not much), but the total amount of the discharge is planned at 250-300 billion. Of the Fed's package of $4,5 trillion, this is a fairly large percentage.
                        That is, no one wants a market collapse, but it is necessary to get rid of a toxic asset.

                        It has nothing to do with the economy right now. But there should always be planning. Therefore, "possibly" and "near future" are quite acceptable terms. Otherwise, you will have to use the expression "when the thunder strikes."
                      4. Peace Peace.
                        Peace Peace.
                        +1
                        2 November 2022 08: 45
                        The dollar is treasury, treasury is like taking money from states. Guarded by the military power of the Anglo-Saxons. An economy without facts, that is, numbers, is not an economy, but a smart conversation of grandmothers at the entrance.
                      5. Bakht
                        Bakht
                        +1
                        2 November 2022 10: 08
                        So the numbers are given. China had over 1 trillion treasuries. Now less than 1 trillion. Resetting 100 billion is, it seems to me 10%. This is not a statistical error.
                        Japan also dropped about 10%. For the first half of this year. For the second I have no data.
                        If the Fed gave a forecast for a decrease in its portfolio by 250 billion out of 4.5 trillion, then this is about 7%.
                      6. Peace Peace.
                        Peace Peace.
                        +1
                        2 November 2022 15: 30
                        Well, where is the crash? This is spring data. How do you write the dollar, on the contrary, has strengthened. Treasury is the basis of the economy and the life of the Anglo-Saxon elite in general, without it there is no elite. How will they allow it? Molar teeth will hold on. The only country that "leaves" or wants to leave the system is Russia. You see the consequences, except for Russia, no one can withstand such pressure.
                      7. Bakht
                        Bakht
                        +1
                        2 November 2022 21: 13
                        Of course, 10% is not a collapse. But you can't call it the norm either. I would call it a reduction in risky investments. And the downward trend continues.
                        We start repeating ourselves. Data for May and June show a decline in interest in treasuries. There is no collapse, because a sharp reset will lead to a drop in their value. Therefore, a slow reset occurs. According to Bloomberg, the top 12 holders have reduced their portfolio in recent months.
                        We will see data for autumn at the end of the year. Or at the beginning of the next one.

                        The TIC report showed that the total position of non-residents in treasuries fell to the lowest for the year $ 7,4 trillion. The data is delayed and the June report could show an even bigger decline, given the sharp rise in 10-year yields in the first half of June

                        The dollar is supported by US military power. For this reason, the war in Ukraine is the most important tool to support the dollar. What will happen if Russia wins this war? I am confident in the victory of Russia. For this reason, I am skeptical about treasuries. And apparently I'm not alone. "Me and China is strength" (almost a quote).
                      8. Peace Peace.
                        Peace Peace.
                        +1
                        3 November 2022 04: 15
                        A collapse is impossible in principle, earlier under Khrushchev they were still afraid, but now they are not afraid of anything. In any case, this is how it is presented and others believe in it. If anyone tries, they will end up like Saddam, Gaddafi, etc. Again, China, you and I observed the "militant spirit" of China when the witch flew to Taiwan. So there is no hope for China. The public debt can be destroyed, but only from the inside.
                      9. Bakht
                        Bakht
                        +1
                        3 November 2022 10: 22
                        Collapse is basically impossible.

                        This is exactly where we disagree.
                      10. Peace Peace.
                        Peace Peace.
                        +1
                        4 November 2022 08: 27
                        Well, I'm talking about this, with 31 trillion in debt, the total mass of "throw-offs" of 300 billion - this is what concerns the exact numbers. This is again within 1%, within the margin of error. Where is the crash? China played for a raise and got a kick and pouts, but it can’t and won’t be able to do anything, if it brings out a semblance of Starlink .. That is, now if the dropping of Taiwan continues, he will not see his ears.
                      11. Bakht
                        Bakht
                        +1
                        4 November 2022 14: 02
                        You are beating the numbers 31 trillion and 300 billion. I will be beating the numbers 1 trillion and 100 billion Chinese treasuries. And almost 100 billion Japanese.
                        Your mistake is that treasuries are not the general debt of the USA. The amount of treasuries is about 8 trillion. Now less than 8 trillion.
                      12. Peace Peace.
                        Peace Peace.
                        0
                        6 November 2022 04: 54
                        Treasury is a casino where the hosts give a spoonful of honey to the chosen ones, and they themselves slurp five. That is, this is the US cash cow. All our reserves are devalued by printing papers, for your trillion dollars they will always have 10 trillion. Here it is guarded by the Anglo-Saxons. And our bureaucrats are bewitched by the dollar, many do not identify themselves with Russia, and are unlikely to go to alleviate the deficit.
                        And who is dropping it? China 9% and Russia, the rest are holding. They also squeezed 1,2 trillion from the Arabs, they were offended and began to move closer to Russia, but will it work.
                      13. Peace Peace.
                        Peace Peace.
                        0
                        6 November 2022 04: 59
                        I wrote on October 26 that China has 9%. And what of it? Total domestic and external debt, ie US national debt in October 31 trillion. Let's say they threw off not 300 but 400 billion, again the same 1% of the total debt. And that's it!
                      14. Bakht
                        Bakht
                        0
                        6 November 2022 07: 51
                        Of the 31 trillion debt, treasuries make up about 40%. The Fed has about 4,5-5,0 trillion. The remaining non-residents had more than 8 trillion. According to Bloomberg, over the past year, the share of non-residents has decreased to 7,5 trillion. How much non-residents threw off can be estimated. But it is clearly not 1%. About 7-8% on average in the hospital. Of these, China and Japan are about 10%. Yes, and the Fed itself plans to dump 20 billion a month. Up to 300 billion in total. Tell me, when do they get rid of an asset that brings 5% per annum profit?

                        Now for a debt of 31 trillion. This is the total debt of the United States, in which household debts make up a huge amount. Particularly mortgages. That is domestic debt. Comrade Powell, who is the head of the Fed, is worried about this. The rate hike makes these debts unsustainable.
                        Powell wants to bring inflation down to 2% by raising rates. But the rate hike is killing monetary policy and production.
                        We have all seen something similar in Turkey. The Central Bank of Turkey kept the discount rate at 20%. Erdogan had to replace 4 heads of the Central Bank, and by force to reduce the rate to 7-8%. This has whipped up inflation and devalues ​​the lira. But Erdogan said that it was more important for him to start production.
                        This year, the Central Bank of Russia also applied the same scheme. In the spring they raised the rate to 20% to stabilize the ruble. Now the rate has been reduced, because production is more important. And the Central Bank of Russia announced that it was abandoning the "inflation targeting" policy. That is, the rise in prices in Russia is inevitable.

                        The scheme is the same everywhere. Raising the rate is killing production. That is, monetary policy. Makes loans very expensive. There is no production without loans. The Fed is teetering on the edge. They want to raise the rate to 5% in the spring, and then start lowering it by 2023. Will they be able to pass between Scylla and Charybdis, I don't know. Nobody has enough data. Including Powell.

                        Conclusion: the asset is very risky. And the practice of freezing and confiscating gold reserves makes it simply toxic.
                        Dixi
                      15. Bakht
                        Bakht
                        0
                        6 November 2022 08: 15
                        The 2008 mortgage crisis was the subject of a film called Margin Call. I really like him, if only because from the first minutes I saw the same dismissal scheme that I experienced myself.
                        This film accurately describes the mechanism of work. A large firm has a risk management department. And if the risk is great, then they act just like that



                        I always recommend this movie to watch.
                      16. Peace Peace.
                        Peace Peace.
                        0
                        6 November 2022 05: 06
                        US government bonds (Treasurys)

                        US Treasury Securities are government securities issued by the US Treasury (US Treasury) through its Bureau of Public Debt. It is a public debt financing instrument.

                        https://ru.wikipedia.org
                      17. Peace Peace.
                        Peace Peace.
                        0
                        7 November 2022 01: 05
                        Above, I gave a link to what Treasury is. These are simply debt obligations of the state. I don't understand what's so difficult about it. Regardless of whether they are external or internal, these are obligations to pay. Of the 31 trillion, as you wrote earlier, about 7 are internal, the rest are external. Of course, I am also not an analyst, etc., but treasuries are different, I think about hundreds of types. And the most stable, that is, guaranteed to be profitable, are long-term ones with an interest rate of about 1,5%. And everything else above these 1,5% is the risk and the work of stock speculators. That is, the State itself gives a "drawdown" or dumps unsecured money, and these 1,5% are insurance against them. And that's it! There is nothing complicated.
                      18. Bakht
                        Bakht
                        0
                        7 November 2022 23: 46
                        I don't understand why you posted the link either. Again. In total, treasuries were issued in the amount of about 12 trillion. 4,5 trillion is the Fed, 7,5 trillion is non-residents. What's incomprehensible here?

                        I wrote from the beginning that the 4,0% rate makes servicing US DEBT a chore. BUT US debt includes not only treasuriesbut also government debt. And companies. And households. And no one knows how many of them are internal and how many are external.

                        Again. Your mistake is that you think that 31 trillion total debt. And NON-RESIDENTS threw off 300 billion not from the total amount, but only from 8 trillion treasuries. And the Fed itself is going to throw off 300 billion of its package of 4,5 trillion.

                        The total amount of discharge is about 7-8% (for the whole hospital).

                        Read your link again. It says (verbatim) "This is an instrument for financing the public debt." Does it say that Treasury is the ONLY instrument? Moreover, they are different. This is not a single coupon.

                        In the department's database, the column "total public debt" indicates the amount of $ 31,123 trillion. Most of the debt is held by individuals, holding over $24 trillion. American debts to foreign governments amount to nearly $7 trillion.

                        The structure of the public debt is not public information, so you will not find details anywhere.

                        Read this analysis.
                        https://www.interfax.ru/business/849079

                        Government spending on interest payments from October, when fiscal 2022 began, to May amounted to about $311 billion, up nearly 30% from the same period a year earlier, according to the country's finance ministry.

                        And that's just for 6 months.

                        And it was written about the interest rate of 1,75%. What figures should be at 4% is not said, because no one expected this

                        “We already assumed that the Fed was going to raise and normalize rates, but they are doing it faster and are probably going to raise them even higher,” said Mark Goldwein, senior director of the budget committee. “Compared to previous expectations, this is somewhat more costly for the budget - that they are raising rates faster."
                      19. Peace Peace.
                        Peace Peace.
                        0
                        8 November 2022 02: 30
                        I once gave a link like, so they are going again?
                        When operating with economic indicators, give data on fait accompli, everything else is analytics.

                        Government spending on interest payments from October, when fiscal 2022 began, to May was about $311 billion, up nearly 30% from the same period a year earlier, according to the country's finance ministry.

                        and you did not confuse "throw-off" with debt service.
                        Again, there is no difference between foreign and domestic government debt. 31 trillion - they are all treasuries in general, a simple borrowing of the state, and instead of receipts, bills, that is, treasuries. Now about the main thing, where is the dropping of countries after the "spring" data. Where? In the total portfolio of public debt "left" about 1%. You torment me that in the future it will go away, or maybe it won’t go away, this is not the case. If China still throws off 10%, then write, we'll see. And the rest is forecasts and assumptions.
                        You live on the money that you have on the card, or in the store they let you go for "future" income.
                      20. Bakht
                        Bakht
                        +1
                        8 November 2022 14: 57
                        It's no good anymore. We are not discussing, but manipulating numbers. Finally got to the basics. Treasuries are securities issued by the Fed. In debt of 31 trillion - treasuries are only a part of this amount.
                        You stubbornly do not notice specific numbers. Of the 8 trillion treasuries that non-residents had at the beginning of the year, 7,5 trillion remained. That is, in six months they threw off 500 billion. This is not a forecast, but a fait accompli. This is the first thing that is not a forecast.

                        The second fact (not a forecast) concerns the entire amount of the debt of 31 trillion. Servicing of this debt increased by 6% in the first 30 months of the financial year. Again - not a forecast, but a fait accompli. For this year, interest alone will amount to about 400 billion, and in the next 10 years the total amount of interest payments will be 8,1 trillion dollars (these 8 trillion are just a forecast, and the most probable one at that).

                        Third. The yield of treasuries is growing against the backdrop of an increase in the discount rate. The yield of two-year Treasuries equaled the yield of ten-year ones. I'm not very good at these parameters, but Bloomberg considers this indicator very important. And this speaks of the unreliability of these securities. This is also a fact, not a prediction.

                        Fourth. Of the total $31 trillion, $10 trillion is due this year. This is also not a prediction, but a fact. You can still believe in treasuries. Yes, they have never defaulted. But this does not mean at all that default is impossible. Moreover, default is inevitable in the event of Ukraine's defeat on the battlefield. I also wrote about this.

                        We don't seem to agree. You are trying to prove to me that Treasuries are reliable. I am convinced that you are wrong.
                      21. Peace Peace.
                        Peace Peace.
                        0
                        9 November 2022 23: 15
                        Dear, with all due respect to you and your knowledge, I have never said that a default on Treasuries is impossible as such, I wrote that it is possible under strong external pressure or from within. Be careful.
                        In Ukraine, we are just seeing what may be the last battle for the hegemony of the dollar. Now please explain what the hegemony of the dollar is, how it manifests itself and how it is dangerous to other countries. And then I think it will become clear to you that all 31 trillion of public debt to the cent is treasury. It’s just that some are long-term, some are short-term, up to payments per week. It is important for America to preserve the total amount, since the majority of TNCs are in external borrowing. The main thing, as in any bank, is a pyramid, the principle is that depositors did not ask for funds in bulk. And so as not to be asked - and there is an American fleet.
  10. Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev
    0
    24 October 2022 21: 18
    And who is against fast? nobody
    But how easy is it to do if the capitalists of Ukraine are against it? no way

    almost no one remembers the goals declared at the beginning - demilitarization and denazification.
    Militarization has become, as it were, no stronger, the Azovites were defiantly released

    And their oligarchs, who support the military, are losing everything, so they will fight to the last in order to save something for themselves. Grain deal, ammonia deal, gas deal, etc.
    They know that Russian capitalists will take everything for themselves ... remember the promises "a resort park on the site of Azov-Steel"
    The oligarchs immediately said - yeah, dream on, open your ears ... such billions don’t lie on the road .... we’ll take everything ...
  11. vlad127490
    vlad127490
    +1
    24 October 2022 22: 23
    The author, the citizens of Russia are interested in how to survive, write about crazy prices for everything, about healthcare, when there is no free medicine in the country, there is commercial and paid taxes, write about bread that is baked from tenth grade wheat, about vodka that costs 20 times more expensive than cost, write about the oligarchs, about the capitalists who export everything to the West. Why is there no gas in the village??? etc.
  12. voznesensky
    voznesensky
    +2
    24 October 2022 23: 14
    The author of the article, Mr. Z, with the words "it is necessary to break now ... on the shoulders of the retreating enemy, who never took Kherson, with a blow to Nikolaev - Odessa with access to Transnistria, in parallel with this - a cutting blow from above, from Belarus ... a blow to Lutsk and below, with the closure of the ring, "almost word for word (in meaning) repeated my judgment about the operation of the Russian Armed Forces that I proposed to be decisive for the outcome of the war in Ukraine, the start of which cannot be delayed. If journalists, and not quite sophisticated netizens (to whom I consider myself), and even military experts from the States, began to talk about this version of the alleged events in the press, this means that the idea is in the air and cannot but be considered in the most serious way by the military . The whole question is whether we will have time to meet the deadlines allotted to us by the enemy for the preparation and concentration of the forces of the strategic reserve of the RF Armed Forces on the given directions. I think we have a very tight time limit...
    1. Peace Peace.
      Peace Peace.
      0
      26 October 2022 03: 29
      The Yankees also secured the division. If we start, will we be able to eliminate this division?
  13. Muscool
    Muscool
    +1
    25 October 2022 08: 46
    Relying on the Russians here, who "oh my God, want to watch TV shows" is, to put it mildly, strange for many reasons, for example: our officials, who, by the way, are to blame for being fooled as the last suckers and forced to get involved in this war, themselves from the word they didn’t reorganize at all in a military way, they buy garlands for the new year, from another, children with British citizenship in Italy (an bureaucrat from the Krasnoyarsk Territory) work for the good of Russia and a bunch of blatant stupidity. In such situations, blaming ordinary citizens seems impudent to me.
  14. gene1
    gene1
    -1
    25 October 2022 09: 32
    More and more I come to the conclusion that the hottest phase of this epic will end on November 22-Dec.
    1) The culmination of the battle - the alleged nuclear strike. The stakes are at the maximum, then only the denouement.
    2) And the outcome will be ours. Nuclear blackmail will stop after an undetectable Neptune strikes a test site in Nevada. (presumably in November). The Anglo-Saxons understand that they were made and there is no need to spend further resources.
    3) The final destruction of the energy system of Ukraine. Chaos.
    4) Entry of peacekeepers. (probably in December)
  15. boriz
    boriz
    +1
    25 October 2022 10: 05
    The budget surplus, which we have been legitimately proud of for these six months, has slowly faded away, since the sanctions, although with a temporary lag, are doing their dirty work.

    The surplus came to naught because Nabiullina overvalued the ruble instead of keeping it around 75 to the dollar. This suggests that our main enemy is not in Ukraine and not abroad at all. Inside.
    And our budget is still supported by such taxpayers as Gazprom, which some local authors love to poison so much. It is they who fill the budget, unlike, for example, offshore Mordashov. Order?
    And the mobilization was started mainly for the sake of creating a Constitutional Court, within which Mishustin creates parallel structures for governing the country, past 3 million "managers" - liberals and many tons of their "laws" and by-laws written over the past 30 years.

    ... moreover, the Russian ruble also strengthened against the US dollar, ...

    Here is the joy! No. Everything is good in moderation.

    That's right, America. As a result, Europe is in the ass, Biden is the champion, and sanctions will also be imposed on Russia and Putin personally for this.

    In fact, Russia is one of the beneficiaries of Europe's weakening.

    Russia is on the verge of collapse, faced with an existential threat in the face of Ukraine and its sponsors, and the careless Russians do not seem to notice this.

    That's just not necessary to roll too much on the Russians. Not only Ukrainians have been massively blitzed over the past 30 years. Yes, and the human brain is so arranged that it tries to isolate itself from what is unpleasant for it.
    In Ukraine, they did not notice how they bombed the Donbass for 8 years. And now anti-Russian sentiment is growing as the infrastructure is shut down. Americans do not want to remember how they demolished Iraq, where in the end there were no weapons of mass destruction. Which started the mess.
    So the Russians do not think the same days and nights that the country is being robbed in favor of the IMF. The roof will move. Need to relax.

    At a time when an Alzheimer's patient deprived Moscow of its last trump card, ...

    Sleepy Joe is driving the US into a hole, squandering the rest of the oil reserve before the election. After the elections, the sky will seem like a sheepskin to them.

    As before, half of our income comes from the oil and gas sector, ...

    Naturally, because they pay taxes, and do not drive money offshore. Like the same Mordashov.

    Did he think that on September 27, the cocky grandfather Joe would put an end to both the subject and the bargaining (in the literal and figurative sense of the word), nullifying Putin's main trump card and making sniffy Europe dependent on supplies of its own expensive (in every sense) American LNG?

    In my opinion, he is not what he thought, he knew and agreed.
    After the US elections, support for Ukraine will sink to the floor. WB will start to be driven under the bench (yes, they have already driven it, Johnson, who drowned for the restoration of the British Empire, was not allowed to take the helm). Europe, deprived of indications of support for 404, will face the fact that gas at affordable prices (not for 200, as before, but now they can get 800 for happiness) can only be obtained from Russia and only through the State Customs Service. And there Ukraine interferes with the process, the agreement of 2019. And they will crawl to Putin with the lowest request to take Ukraine and do whatever they want there. And Eastern Europe as well. It's just the logic of events. They themselves liquidate Zelensky and others who know a lot of superfluous things.
    Moreover, Scholz has already taken the first step towards the collapse of the EU. This caused a quiet panic.
    But here no one noticed or commented on this.
    1. Fangaro
      Fangaro
      0
      25 October 2022 20: 09
      Well, where do these words come from? They will crawl ... When it comes to "I give a tooth" or "you're wrong. Answer", here some kind of ancient instinct works for the majority, or something. And it starts with a conversation at elevated levels, then someone has something stuffed, then who is for, then ... Then, for a long time, the debaters beat each other. Then, very often they drank together. And in the morning they went to work.
      Now those who did not study well at school are working. And those who live from what he himself invented, made, raised. And he shot. (
    2. Peace Peace.
      Peace Peace.
      0
      26 October 2022 03: 36
      The ruble was overvalued so that parallel imports could import something. If the rate remained at 75, then customs clearance and margin and inflation would increase the price of goods very much, I think so.
    3. ibn.shamai
      ibn.shamai
      0
      26 October 2022 10: 08
      After the US elections, support for Ukraine will sink to the floor.

      How many, in different countries, during the conflict, there were elections and they always said: "There will be elections And ........" But none of them happened. So why do you think that after the elections in the United States something will change, are there preconditions?!
  16. Oleg_5
    Oleg_5
    +3
    25 October 2022 10: 27
    Everything is easier. Take out the power system a little more - and they themselves will give up. In cities without electricity (water supply, sewerage) one cannot survive.
    1. Sapsan136
      Sapsan136
      +5
      25 October 2022 11: 31
      If they began to spread right away, and didn’t play with white gloves, maybe now all this would have ended ... We need to bomb regularly and even harder than now, otherwise this bodyaga will stretch for a long time
    2. Fangaro
      Fangaro
      -1
      25 October 2022 20: 15
      In our cities located on the territory of the Russian Federation, without electricity and heat, we will also freeze. But I really hope that before Novosibirsk, Syktyvkar, and even before Leningrad / St. Petersburg, this will not happen.
  17. usm5
    usm5
    -2
    25 October 2022 16: 52
    This article is logical in the paradigm of the capitalist division of labor and material wealth in the state. But theoretically, Russia can fight indefinitely. In this unique country, everything is there, and what is not can be bought for unique resources (gas, oil, metals, grain, etc.). The stupidity of the ruling layer of the USSR was that mountains of first-class weapons were made, and the people were in poverty. Therefore, the production of the necessary goods and their exchange should be arranged in Russia. That's actually what money is needed for, the amount of which is calculated according to a relatively simple method and is released into circulation. And in the end, the army, like any other production unit of the state, must pay for itself at the expense of Russia's enemies. Therefore, she will have to fight and win along the entire perimeter of the borders with our insolent neighbors who imagine themselves to be "Aryans". And it also seems important not to engage in the wholesale nationalization of industrial enterprises, but to develop a socially controlled mechanism, when the owner, who allocates significant funds for luxury goods, does not develop technologies or does not operate in the national interests of the state, is deprived of this property in the prescribed manner with its transfer to competitive basis to another owner.
    1. smart fellow
      smart fellow
      0
      26 October 2022 04: 29
      And in the end, the army, like any other production unit of the state, must pay for itself at the expense of Russia's enemies.

      It's right on Sun Tzu's The Art of War.
  18. ValBor
    ValBor
    +1
    25 October 2022 18: 24
    I don't think it will end soon. Until the EU is involved, they will not stop. We need devastation, debtors for loans, guilty people, etc.
  19. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich
    Ignatov Oleg Georgievich
    +2
    25 October 2022 21: 31
    The author has some strange ideas - Who is who, or rather - what is what. What does it mean - Voynushka needs to end, we can't afford it! Does the author understand what he is writing? Imagine Stalin at 41 announced to the entire USSR - We don’t need to start a war with Germany, because it is a war with Germany for us - the USSR can’t afford it.
    1. Monster_Fat
      Monster_Fat
      -4
      26 October 2022 09: 50
      It's funny to see how "total war", "nuclear strikes", the death of everyone and everything, the country is a single military camp .... It all started with the fact that someone wanted to play a small, victorious war game. .. And everything will end ... very, very badly.
  20. borisvt
    borisvt
    0
    26 October 2022 12: 36
    Great article, thanks to the author! In particular, I was pleased with the story about my father, lively and with details. smile
    My father, during the war with the artillery school, returned to the liberated, destroyed Kyiv, and then - he said - near Koenigsberg, after the end of the Second World War, he prepared with artillery to "meet" the Americans if they trample further east, there was already such a danger ((
  21. alexxnumx
    alexxnumx
    0
    27 October 2022 02: 21
    the coordinating committee is NOT an analogue of the State Defense Committee, because the latter had many times more functions.

    and careless Russians do not seem to notice this.

    notice and what should all the Russians do? people live such a life and that everyone needs to walk in formation?

    What will be the conclusions? The war must be ended.

    this is already clear and Putin spoke about it, only the deadlines were called by the summer of 2023.

    Now imagine for a moment a direct NATO conflict, first with Belarus

    they will open a second front and also in the Baltic - plus they will support Ukraine in every possible way. in terms of numbers, our army is inferior to the APU, even taking into account mobilization, technically they will arm the APU - the conflict is beneficial for the Anglo-Saxons.
    So I doubt that what is described in the article will happen.
    The committee is a good thing, but the current authorities will not pull the military economy to the GKO to this committee as to the moon. But parallels can certainly be drawn.