Signs of Ukraine's Preparation for War with Russia - Historical Parallels

I continue the story of the war in Ukraine that is coming in the near future, and how it all can end for the Russian Federation. AT the first part it was about why this confrontation is inevitable and who will benefit from it. I advise you to read it, I will not repeat it.

"History is not a teacher, but a warden, she does not teach anything, but only punishes for unlearned lessons ..." (V.O. Klyuchevsky)

I continue the historical parallels.

There was no sign of trouble when on June 29, 1914, newspapers reported on the assassination of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo. This became a sensation, as the Balkans have always been an explosive region. The bulk of the aristocratic society policy touched little: they already had something to think about. Wimbledon and the royal ball scheduled for July 16, which were supposed to be attended by representatives of the most noble families in Europe, occupied Wimbledon's thoughts. This was followed by horse races at Goodwood and sailing competitions at Cowes, where the brother of the Kaiser and the son-in-law of Queen Alexandra of England, Prince Henry of Prussia with his yacht Carmen, was going to participate. The outbreak of the First World War overturned hopes for a better future for many peoples of the world. “Some damned stupidity in the Balkans,” Bismarck predicted, “will be the spark of a new war.

This is how he described the beginning of the Great War in his book “The First World War. At the head of the Wild Division. Notes of the Grand Duke Mikhail Romanov ”chronograph of those events Vladimir Khrustalev.

As you can see, 100 years ago everything was as it is now - nothing foreshadowed the approaching war. The fattening aristocratic audience carelessly tasted the joys of life, shaking their backs at balls and eating strawberries with cream on tennis courts and hippodromes. Working people worked in the sweat of their brow, tirelessly for 10-12 hours. Life went on as usual. So slowly began the brilliant 20th century, promising, it seemed, only goodness and prosperity to everyone. But the inevitable course of history has already dictated to her the terrible result, to which humanity came just a month after the assassination of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne. The old imperialist predators, who at that time divided control over all the resources of the planet among themselves, did not notice the growing appetites of the young predator of the German Empire, who was left with nothing, being late to share the pie. Otto von Bismarck, the first chancellor of the German Empire, could not continue for this long, and then looked into the water (fortunately, he did not live).

Therefore, when sheer nonsense happened in Sarajevo, where 19-year-old self-taught terrorist Gavrila Princip killed the unfortunate Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his morganatic wife Duchess Sophia a month later, most of the countries of the Old and New Worlds were drawn into a domino war. As a result, the bloody First World War, better known in Europe as the Great War, stretching for as much as 4 years, ended with the collapse of 4 empires that participated in it (Russian, German, Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman), and the death of 18 million people.

I am not saying that the forthcoming Russian-Ukrainian war, encouraged from overseas, will surpass the First World War in human casualties, but the fact that in its consequences for the whole world it will be able to directly compete with it is a fact. The world will once again return to a bipolar order, and America will again and for a long time be able to consolidate its dominant position of the world hegemon in it. True, not the only one, there will also be China. But after Russia defeated as a rogue country, it will be easier for Washington to cope with it, especially when the rest of the "free" world is forced to close its ranks around the Stronghold of World Civilization. I will not repeat once again all the good things that the White House will gain from this war (the link to the previous text was given above), but the fact that Russia as a result will be overturned in the last century, take this as a proven medical fact. Iron Curtain 2.0. - this is the best that she can get for a military invasion of the territory of an independent sovereign country. And she can only blame herself for this. The Russian Federation became a hostage of the situation, which it itself modeled in 2014, by annexing (from the point of view of the international community) Crimea and supporting the warring republics of Donbass. I am not saying that this should not have been done, I argue that it was not necessary to stop there, having said "a", it was necessary to say "b" - either to maintain the Yanukovych regime, or to eliminate by force the conspirators who settled in Kiev (the first the option is better, but then Crimea could remain with Ukraine). And now the Russian Federation has a hopeless situation, she cannot fail to appear at war(especially if Kiev dares to regain the Crimean peninsula by force), and having got involved in this war, it risks, even having won it (and there will be no other option), completely after the victory go to the margins with all the ensuing consequences of this situation. The situation is stalemate and we have driven ourselves into it.

I would not blame the villain-Biden for this. He has an awful situation in his Castle on the Hill and he can only survive at our expense. Bolivar will not stand two. His predecessor tried to rectify the situation by unleashing trade wars with China and the rest of the world, and he lost. China was too tough for him. Old Biden just went the other way. The simplest and most obvious. The fact that Donald Trump did not go this way does him credit (I always liked him and not only me).

Markers of the coming war and what to do for Putin

Now let's talk about the markers that allow me to assert that war is inevitable and that it will begin in the near future (unless, of course, Vova Putin comes up with anything). He is already making every effort to turn Ukraine away from the scenario prescribed by Washington, but he has zero chances to somehow influence it. From the word "zero". He needs to seize the initiative, play the first number, asymmetrically, as he always does (and what our enemies are so afraid of), but there are few options. If I were in his place, I would simply try to break the American plan by playing ahead of the curve. When plans are exposed, the meaning of their implementation falls at times. You just need to go live (with the involvement of a lot of journalists) with an official statement that in the event of an invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the territory of the LPNR or Crimea, Russia simply will have no other option than not to answer all the military arsenal it has (namely, the military! ) funds. Responsibility for this and the possible consequences will lie solely with the Director of this banana republic and those behind him on both sides of the ocean (I mean London and Washington). I don’t think that such a statement will go unnoticed (“Putin the killer” was noticed even on the sidelines of Biden’s speech), but after that Moscow’s hands will be untied (we warned you! What claims against us?), And the impending sanctions against it will already be applied somehow not comme il faut. Thus, the victim and the hunter change places, Moscow from a victim of manipulative control itself becomes a manipulator, changing places with the hunter-Biden, although the loaded buckshot gun is still in his hands (I hope the allegory is clear).

Russia from an aggressor country turned into a side of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict

But back to the markers of the impending war. The first one is listed above. Official Kiev suddenly suddenly changed the message about the aggressor country, repeated many times in the media, imposed on society as "Our Father", for the first time in an official document (resolution of the Verkhovna Rada), replacing him with a participant in the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict. What is it for? The answer, oddly enough, is simple. Ukraine from a victim of aggression, which is just defending itself, immediately turns into a side that itself can respond and go on the offensive. A trifle, it seems, but in this way society is being prepared for a possible offensive by Ukraine on all fronts. "And sho, they are timid, we are going to a sacred cause, to beat off our native land from the aggressor!" At the same time, without declaring war on Russia, Ukraine has already declared that it is its party, a party to the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict.

What conclusion follows from this? And the obvious follows - on the borders with Russia, a state is being formed at an accelerated pace, which does not even consider it necessary to hide that its main goal is a war with the Russian Federation. And it is already impossible to pretend that this state is not there or that it is not going to fight with Russia. And if the Russian Federation until recently, based on its exclusively economic interests (and SP-2 is far from the last), did not recognize this fact, then after this statement it will be impossible to do this. Moreover, this passage has already been officially enshrined by Kiev in its military doctrine, where Russia is designated the only enemy of the country of zhovto-blakit benches, and the raison d'être of Ukraine is NATO membership.

A blow to the dodgers. New law on conscription. Total mobilization. The whole country is under arms

In parallel with this, the President directly introduced a new bill to the Rada, changing the procedure for recruiting reservists into the army. And radically. Now, without even announcing a total mobilization, not to mention a declaration of war, the state assumes the right to call up all male conscripts under the age of 45 (for reserve officers up to 55 years) per day. True, the last circumstance for some reason is not spelled out in the adopted law, just as the list of categories of reservists that fall under this law is not spelled out.

I quote from

On March 30, the Verkhovna Rada adopted Law No. 3553, which provides for the reform of the system of military commissariats. It also allows reservists to be recruited without mobilizing in the event of a special period and significantly increases the punishment for evading military service. For failure to appear at the military registration and enlistment office on a summons, untimely registration, loss of military documents or their damage, fines have been increased (10-15 times).

Now, in the event of an aggravation at the front or violation of the Ukrainian borders, the state will be able to call reservists into service without announcing mobilization. That is, a new type of military service is being created - military service for the conscription of reserve personnel during a special period. Mobilization can be carried out in any troops - from the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the National Guard, but for no more than six months. According to the amendments to the Criminal Code, evasion of the draft for military service of persons from among the reservists in a special period is punishable by imprisonment for a term of 3 to 5 years. In addition, according to the adopted law, it is now officially forbidden to employ citizens without a military ID. Those. men without a military ID now officially cannot find work. Either die of hunger, or go to fight.

And mind you, all this is done by a man who was elected under the slogan to stop the war. At the same time, everything is done very beautifully - they do not declare war, but they say that they are fighting without declaring war; there is no war, and deserters have a new law against them (up to 5 years in prison); and the last, without announcing mobilization, they carry out mobilization - a classic of the genre, the circle is closed, there is nowhere to run, only to the front. Poroshenko looks at all this and thinks: "And what, it turns out, was possible?" Zelensky has already outdone him on this issue.

I hope everyone understands that this policy of Kiev is forever. We have already outlived two presidents, it only got worse. Because they are people of servitude, under external control. The owner of the White House has changed - Kiev's rhetoric has become tougher, but the vector of Ukraine's movement to break away from Russia and create a state hostile to Russia on its territory has not changed, and will never change as long as it is under external control. And if we do nothing about it, then nothing will change - Russophobia, Nazism, preparations for war will be tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow, and after the day after tomorrow. What are we going to do with these saber-toothed tigers, which they will produce during this time, I do not know? But one must be aware that by itself it will not dissolve and will not go anywhere. At the same time, a state is being formed, which always has a formal reason for a war with the Russian Federation. And when it decides to activate this button, it itself does not know, but only its puppeteers from the overseas metropolis know. And they just won't give up such leverage on us, and what they will demand in return, we can only guess.

What is the solution to this issue? It is either political or military. Which one do you like best? Either we join them in a political way (for example, by creating a union state), or they will attack us. There is no third. Are you waiting for Ukraine to collapse on its own under the weight of economic problems? Wait. It will take a long time. This is a torpedo that will be kept afloat by its curators until it completes its mission - torpedoes the Russian Federation. There is no need to rely on the local population who will rise up against the "green" or any other tyranny that will replace it. The population is completely demoralized, deprived of its political representation and would rather go to war, die for Zelensky, than go to Bankova to overthrow him. And you can't blame them for this.

Do you remember much of the protests against Hitler in 1940? Moreover, even in April 1945, the Germans were still in full swing recorded in the folk-assault and Hitler Youth and went to die for the Third Reich. Herd, tell me? Yes, man is a collective animal and Goebbels has convincingly proved this. And now the Ukrainian followers of Goebbels will have worse tools than their fascist idol for the total moronization of the population. The Anglo-Saxons are generally good at these issues. On their account there are already more than a dozen countries, divided by nationality, religion, language and whatever else you like. Need examples? Vaughn, India and Pakistan, two nuclear powers, two parts of one once country, are still fighting among themselves for the two states of Jamma and Kashmir. Ireland and Northern Ireland, Cyprus and Northern Cyprus, now they are joined by Russia with Ukraine, Moldova with Transnistria, Armenia with Azerbaijan and Georgia with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Few? Soon they will take up Tatarstan and Bashkiria. You will wait.

Injection through all available communication channels

It is impossible not to notice how the information background has tightened recently. I'm not even talking about the disconnection of three opposition channels from the air, although I cannot fail to note the synchronism of their disconnection with the arrival of a new-old white gentleman in a building at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, D.C. Washington, DC 1600). For three years, it means they were tolerated, but here, on you - the patience is over! And what? It is clear why - a course has been taken for war, there is no need to get confused underfoot, people should be distracted from ideologically correct information.

And it rushed - from all the irons "Russia is the aggressor, pulls together troops, leads to confrontation, resumed shelling, gives machinery, disrupts negotiations, prepares for provocations directed against the civilian population. " And from that moment on, take a closer look - provocations against the civilian population. What is it for? If they warn, then they will. They will write off, as always, on the arm or leg of the Kremlin. The picture will be provided, the world community will shudder. Not Boeing, of course, but there may well be a house on Kashirka. Donetsk-Kremlin terrorists, what to take from them? And then, of course, the entire force of the Ukrainian army will fall on ... But on whom it will fall, I just don't know yet, but there are not many options - either Donbass or Crimea.

But for denying the aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, a period of up to 5 years already shines.

The parliament registered bill No. 4189 "On Amendments to the Criminal Code of Ukraine regarding the establishment of criminal liability for public denial of the fact of armed aggression by the Russian Federation and the temporary occupation of a part of the territory of Ukraine."

The draft proposes to supplement the Criminal Code of Ukraine with a new article 436-2 "Public denial of the fact of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation and the temporary occupation of a part of the territory of Ukraine."

In particular, for public denial of the fact of military aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the occupation of a part of the territory of Ukraine by the Russian Federation and the conduct of a hybrid war against Ukraine by the Russian Federation, as well as the production and distribution of materials with such denial, it was proposed to establish a fine from 51 to 000 hryvnia or imprisonment for up to 170 years.

RHO is authorized to report

And here is a completely fresh information. Intelligence reported to us for sure. The Ukrainian intelligence service reported on possible provocations by the Russian Federation on the line of contact in eastern Ukraine.

The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine announced that the Russian Federation has completed a set of measures aimed at encouraging Ukraine to a military response to provocations in the east of the country and plans to send regular troops to Donbas. This is stated on the GUR website:

Russia also plans to expand the Russian military presence on the territory of the so-called "DPR" and "LPR" by introducing regular units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, citing the need to protect Russian citizens in the self-proclaimed republics (in fact, citizens of Ukraine who have been forced to issued passports of the Russian Federation)

- said in a statement.

The Intelligence Directorate notes that it is possible for Russian troops to move deep into the territory of Ukraine.

It is also known that Russian diplomatic missions abroad and the media were instructed to be ready to cover and explain to the world community information about the allegedly aggressive actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the "peacekeeping" measures of the Russian Federation in response

- notes the department.

Earlier, a senior US official said that thousands of Russian soldiers were gathering to the border with Ukraine, which could lead to an escalation of the conflict in Donbass. The day before, Chief of the General Staff Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Ruslan Khomchak said that Russia is not preparing an attack on our country, but such a threat persists. Let me remind you that back in August 2020, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed a new commander of the MTR of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He believes that in the conditions of the truce, the tasks of the MTR have changed (now the truce has been thwarted, the Special Operations Forces have something to do). Before that, Zelensky said that military equipment should be in the East, and not in a parade in Kiev, and a big parade in the country will be staged when it returns all its territories.

It seems that the big parade will not be long in coming. Or does it seem to you that I am exaggerating?
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  1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
    Just a cat (Bayun) April 7 2021 07: 49
    the pigsty itself has NEVER attacked. So with whom will the war be? with Poland or the third world with the NATO countries with the use of nuclear weapons since the country is a trash heap with the Balkans is compared? compare Tesla's homeland of Serbia with the ruins of the potheads laughing ... Ukrainians are preparing the fate of rodents. And why in the First World War Russia fought not with the Balkans but with Germany, and now it should fight the Ukrainians and not the United States? Yes, because Russia will not fight with the United States for the sake of anyone unnecessary Ukrainians
  2. Fourth Horseman Offline Fourth Horseman
    Fourth Horseman (Fourth Horseman) April 7 2021 08: 05
    Without an order from behind a puddle, the villagers do not even dare to grunt.
    And their owners are themselves pissing.
    There are more and more people who are screaming - Well, her nna ... this ukraine!
    Reasonably wary of vigorous fly agaric.
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) April 7 2021 08: 10
      and it is high time to divide this Ukraine along ethnic lines. let them remember that their ancestors are Russians, Poles, Hungarians and Turks with Circassians and not fictional Ukrainians with their language.

      For example, the often found surname Shevchenko, according to the researcher, goes back to the word "sheujen", which the Circassians called Christian priests. The descendants of those who moved to the Ukrainian lands of “shejujen” began to add the ending “-ko” - so they turned into Shevchenko.

      It is curious that the names with the ending for "-ko" are still found among some Caucasian peoples and Tatars, and many of them are very similar to the Ukrainian ones: Gerko, Zanko, Kushko, Hatko.

      Ukrainian surnames with the ending for “-uk” and “-yuk” Lopatinsky also refers to the Turkic roots. So, as evidence, he cites the names of the Tatar khans - Kuchuk, Tayuk, Payuk. G.A. Borisenko, a researcher of Ukrainian onomastics, supplements the list with Ukrainian surnames with a wide variety of endings that, in his opinion, are of Adighe origin - Babiy, Bogma, Zigura, Kekuh, Legeza, Prikhno, Shakhrai.
  3. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) April 7 2021 10: 12
    I will not repeat once again all the good things that the White House will gain from this war (the link to the previous text was given above), but the fact that Russia as a result will be overturned in the last century, take this as a proven medical fact.

    This is not a fact. And the fact that an exchange of nuclear strikes can occur with the extinction of the present civilization is a medical fact.
    And Russia should defiantly start transporting the families of high-ranking officials and businessmen from NATO countries to Russia. This could be a serious warning to NATO members about the possibility of a nuclear strike on decision-making centers.
  4. Azat Mambetov Offline Azat Mambetov
    Azat Mambetov (Azat Mambetov) April 7 2021 11: 02
    To be afraid of wolves, do not go to the forest.
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) April 7 2021 17: 46
      yeah, I'm a Wolf .......
      1. The comment was deleted.
  5. alexey alexeyev_2 (Alexey Alekseev) April 8 2021 09: 29
    After all, the GDP clearly said. There will be blows on the decision-making centers. There will be enough missiles for everyone. And the fact that he is not afraid of "all peace" says one phrase ... we do not need a world without Russia
  6. Herman 4223 Offline Herman 4223
    Herman 4223 (Alexander) April 8 2021 19: 04
    Wait and see . In any case, there will be no Ukraine in the future. Either this country will become part of European countries or return to Russia. She illegally seceded from the USSR and this will be presented to her in the future. Or as they say in the preamble to the constitution that they will become part of the European community. That is, if you think a little, part of the European countries.
    1. Igor Berg Offline Igor Berg
      Igor Berg (Igor Berg) April 13 2021 06: 40
      Ukraine, like us, like Belarus, all seceded from the USSR with the same authority. Study the materiel and do not force it .... too many, as I see, I really want to go to the trenches .... maybe it's better to look for a peaceful job if you don't have enough money to live on?
      1. Herman 4223 Offline Herman 4223
        Herman 4223 (Alexander) April 16 2021 14: 14
        I advise you to study the hardware, I have already done this, and therefore I am writing. None of the republics seceded from the USSR legally or as you put it legally.
  7. volk.bosiy Offline volk.bosiy
    volk.bosiy (Volk Bosiy) April 13 2021 17: 22
    the analysis is correct at the moment .. the question is whether the situation has come to the finish line ... or there is still room for improvement ... she will fall apart if you just look at her ... in this state they will support her as much as they need ...