Epigraph: "When sons of bitches come to power, everyone begins a dog's life!" (own observation)
I probably won't open America to anyone if I say that humanity develops in a spiral and history tends to repeat itself twice - once in the form of a tragedy, another time in the form of a farce. It seems to me that now, at a new historical stage, we are repeating the events of 80 years ago, preceding the beginning of the Second World War. And if then humanity plunged into a real tragedy, now we will most likely become participants in a cheap farce.
History teaches us only that it teaches nothing!
Everything says that we are on the eve of the war with Ukraine, this is evidenced by many factors that I will cite below, but an ordinary Russian and Ukrainian man in the street drives this idea away from himself. Russians with the words: “Yes, what are you telling us ?! We have been at war with Ukraine for 7 years now, we still cannot win, because we are not going to war. " And the Ukrainians are already so tired of the war that their country is waging with its northern neighbor exclusively from televisions and radios that they perceive it as white noise - there seems to be a war, but there are no consequences. So there is no war either!
The difference with the events of 80 years ago is only in the fact that then the Supreme leadership of the USSR in the person of Joseph Vissarionovich, realizing the inevitability of the impending war, tried in every possible way to delay it, went to the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact (in Europe better known as the Stalin-Hitler pact ), creating a buffer belt around the borders of the USSR from the newly annexed western territories (and they then helped Stalin not to lose the war in the first months of its summer campaign, when the Wehrmacht troops got bogged down in exhausting battles on the distant approaches to Moscow, but backfired after 80 years, when precisely these western territories of Ukraine and the Baltic States, which for half a century have not forgiven Stalin's annexation, became hotbeds of terrifying Russophobia), but, nevertheless, the same top leadership until the last moment did not believe in the possibility of the start of the war on June 22, 1941 years, although Stalin was reported from various sources about its beginning, up to the exact hour and date of the offensive of the German troops. But Stalin could not believe that Hitler had outwitted him and would start a military campaign even without winter ammunition. But Hitler, nevertheless, started it, intending to end the war within 3-4 months. Blitz Krieg, Plan Barbarossa - you know all this without me. How it ended for both too. Stalin then in the first two weeks of the war fell into a stupor, the situation on all fronts developed catastrophically, we lost in the very first hours of the war half of the regular staff of aviation, which the Germans bombed right on the airfields, the top of the Red Army was beheaded by pre-war purges and repressions, some military leaders were sent to the active army directly from the cells of the NKVD detention center, and instead of Stalin at that time, Molotov and Yuri Levitan spoke.
The current top leadership of the Russian Federation does not have any illusions about Kiev, it is well aware of its plans, and has recently been making titanic efforts to avoid a negative development of events for itself. The only difference is that they cannot change anything. The key to this box is in the hands of Washington, and no Berlin or Paris can influence the possessed Kiev any longer. The recent online talks of the Normandy Four in the mode of videoconference (without Zelensky) at the highest level only confirmed this. Neither Merkel nor Macron have any influence on Kiev. Merkel is generally an outgoing nature and dreams of jumping off this armored train flying downhill as soon as possible, cursing the day when she, having sat down at the wheel of her German vacuum cleaner, contacted Putin and the construction of the SP-2. Lavrov's negotiations with his Chinese counterpart also did not end with anything, Beijing is going to continue to sit on the shore and wait for the corpses of its enemies - the United States and the Russian Federation - float past (I hope no one here believes the Chinese assurances that the Russians and the Chinese are brothers forever, we they heard it 65 years ago under Mao Zedong, how it ended, they also have not forgotten).
We can objectively hope that now we will be shown a cheap farcical copy of the tragedy of 1941, if it were not for the consequences for the Russian Federation that would follow right after it. The funny thing is that neither in 1941 nor in 2021 did the people fully believe in the possibility of an impending war. Then, under the influence of Soviet propaganda, we were generally going to fight on foreign territory and grind the tank armies of Manstein and Guderian with cavalry saber attacks. The more severe was the disappointment when, leading bloody battles, the Red Army rolled back to the East in front of the advancing Army Groups "North" and "Center" of Fyodor von Bock and Wilhelm von Leeb. Now I, too, was amazed at the reaction of the Russians to my last textdedicated to the upcoming events in the near future and the catastrophic consequences that the Russian Federation may receive as a result. People were just blowing at me, telling me that I was an agent of the SBU and my place on Censor.net, not believing in the possibility of such an outcome, knowing exactly how this could end for Kiev. Putin has also more than once already verbalized the possible outcome of this confrontation, trying to warn Kiev against rash actions. But the end of statehood does not seem to scare the enraged territory under external control at all. Why worry about what is not? What kind of statehood and sovereignty? Ukraine has already forgotten what it is. Zelensky and his entourage are completely dependent on making such decisions. They will say to attack the Donbass or Crimea, they will do it. What difference does it make how many Ukrainians or Russians will die? But these comrades will spend the rest of their shitty days in abundance and abundance somewhere in Washington or London, like the government of Ukraine in exile (the Polish government also felt good in 1939-45 in hospitable London, "leading" from there the resistance of those who remained in the occupied territory Poles in fascist Germany).
Therefore, the current leadership of Ukraine does not care at all where Putin's tanks will stop, even on the left bank of the Dnieper, even on the right bank of the Southern Bug. But the consequences of this for the Russian Federation will be more than catastrophic - Iron Curtain 2.0. and defeat in rights as a rogue country with all that it implies. We risk going back to the 80s when our limited contingent entered the DRA. Disconnection from SWIFT, arrest and blocking of all our accounts and assets in the West, with the blocking of all financial and other transport flows (goodbye to the unfinished SP-2 and other SP-1, Yamal-EU, I am not even talking about the Ukrainian pipe), a ban on exchange technology, the supply of spare parts and components, for the maintenance and repair of our foreign-made aircraft fleet (in our country, half of it are Boeings and Airbuses, who will extend their air resource?). This I sketch only the first thing that comes to mind, every little thing like a sport, a flag, an anthem, doping, just forget it - there will be no time for them.
But the United States will straighten its shoulders - finally, they will have a real, not a fake enemy with whom they will be able to fight for decades to come, rallying the entire civilized world under the banner of this struggle, which will be forced to close its ranks around the world hegemon again. The decrepit Biden will finally rally his nation against the threat of an external enemy and will do what he has always done well - the fight against the Soviet-Russian threat, and NATO will regain its meaning of existence. The world will become bipolar again and fall at the feet of the United States. And if this requires some kind of Ukraine to attack the Russian Federation, then consider that it has already done this. The sense of self-preservation is the last thing that is inherent in our non-brothers.
Moreover, I draw your attention to the fact that they will act exclusively in accordance with the norms of international law, restoring their territorial integrity. They are going to fight on their territory. Whose Crimea, have you not forgotten yet? And whose Donbass? Remember the recent events in Nagorno-Karabakh, I somehow did not hear the voices of the international community, outraged by the actions of Baku. They have a right! A bad example is contagious, especially when your friends-comrades from Washington and London are pushing you to this, supplying you with military instructors and words of support, and through Comrade Saakov, excuse me, through Comrade. Erdogan is also being supplied with drones. We can only guess whether Kiev will launch an offensive against the Donbass or immediately against the Crimea so that Moscow does not get rid of the PMC. At the same time, I do not exclude an imitation of an attack by the "green men" on themselves, as Hitler did in 1939, staging an attack by Heydrich's men dressed in Polish military uniforms on a German radio station in Gleiwitz during Operation Canned Food, initiating an excuse to start WWII. Right there, Ukraine doesn't even need a pretext, it already has all the international rights to restore its territorial integrity. Even if the first one starts. We are in a stalemate. We cannot fail to defend Donbass (I’m not even talking about Crimea!) (They will not understand this, first of all, within the Russian Federation), but we are also unable to prevent the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on its territory. Ukraine is acting in its own right, restoring the lost territorial integrity.
There are a whole bunch of markers for that. I'm just tired of talking about them already. Starting with "Putin the killer", which was dropped by Biden by no chance (do you believe in such accidents?), And ending with the echelons of military equipment that Kiev drives along the contact line without any camouflage in the daytime. And if we add here all the nonsense that flows from the pro-government Kiev matyugalniks warning the population about possible provocations of the northern deranged neighbor, and the laws adopted by the Rada on the total mobilization of the male and even female population liable for military service under 60, then the oil painting will be complete - Kiev is preparing for war, and not sometime tomorrow or next year, but right now. The time before it started went for months, either May or June (hopefully not the 22nd).
As the classic said: "Nobody wanted war, war was inevitable!" The worst, as a rule, happens when he is not expected at all and when it seems that the worst is over. As history teaches us, when everyone says - tomorrow is June 22, graduation party, and then summer, then, as a rule, the war begins ...
When you tell me how it will end for Kiev and where Putin's tanks will stop, I want to ask you - do not waste your time, I know, and Zelensky also knows. But he does not start this war. And not to win it. They begin to lose it, refuting the famous assertion of Karl von Clausewitz that "the war is fought to the point of victory, period." This war is started to be defeated. Moreover, everyone will lose - both Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the EU, only the United States will win, moreover, without sacrificing any of its soldiers for this. It will be a brilliant victory for the senile Biden, worthy of being recorded in the annals of history. Why such a brilliant move did not occur to Trump, I do not know. One move with the pawn "Ukraine" - and America is in the kings.
You may ask me: “What has changed? What happened in the world that right now Kiev has become more active in this direction? Why didn't this happen a year or two ago? What did Moscow do to trigger this trigger? " My answer is that Moscow hasn't done anything like that! Everything that she could not do, she did not do in 2014, recognizing in fact a coup in Ukraine, and for the sake of her economic interests, continuing to cooperate with the fascist regime established there, instead of burying it, preserving the Yanukovych regime for herself. (as she did 7 years later with the Lukashenka regime in Belarus). Now he just returned to the White House after leaving for 4 years personally participating in the events of 2014 in Ukraine, Biden, and decided that the gun that he hung up in Act 1 should finally fire in Act 4. Otherwise, why did he hang it up?
Markers that speak about how serious all this is, and how it all can end, I will give in the next text - it did not fit here. Not saying goodbye.