В the first part of my article, I outlined the disposition on the blackboard and explained the reasons that prompted me to return to the Ukrainian topic, which I had already forgotten for a long time, for reasons of its predetermined end. But it was not by chance that an insider inside from a man who was privy to the secrets of the local court showed that the situation was changing dramatically and events were accelerating. This prompted me to break the taboo on topics related to Ukraine and go on the air. Everything turned out to be even worse than I expected.
In the same place I gave a detailed analysis of the events preceding this situation, now I turn to the current agenda.
The Wagner case. "Rat" in the Office of the President
You and I thought that the Wagner case was concocted by Lukashenka's father to flirt with the West on the eve of the presidential elections in order to play the anti-Russian card and win the elections, and we could not understand why Kiev threw such a hysteria to Minsk about the breakdown. significant joint operation of the Belarusian KGB and the Ukrainian SBU. But, according to the insider, everything was much more complicated. The guys from Langley, who occupy an entire floor in the Kiev office of the SBU, as well as their friends from MI6 and the Turkish special services, who worked in tandem with the British, were involved in the case. The Ukrainian office was just a performer there. The operation itself was a multi-layered cake. The Ukrainians were digging under the Kremlin, wanting to get live participants in the Donetsk events, each with a long record of participation in hostilities on the side of the LPNR, which made it possible to accuse the Russian Federation of directly participating in these events and to withdraw it under this pretext from the status of the guarantor of the Minsk agreements with their subsequent revision towards Minsk-3, but on Ukrainian terms with an expanded list of participating countries (for example, by attracting Britain and the United States). Say, crazy plan, but why not try? It took 3 years to prepare for the operation.
In addition to the above task, the Americans also had a super task to identify with the help of this multi-move in the depths of the top leadership of Ukraine a "rat" that was leaking information to Moscow, as a result of which there were already several failures. And according to the insider, such a "rat" was discovered by them. It was thanks to her that this operation was also successfully failed - the Belarusian KGB tied up all Wagner's fighters, after which the dad returned them to Moscow. The number of persons initiated into the operation was limited to a list of five people, among whom was the President of Ukraine. And also the head of his Office Andriy Yermak, his deputy Roman Mashovets, the head of the Intelligence Committee (he is also the 1st deputy secretary of the NSDC) Ruslan Demchenko and Zelensky's secretary Maria Levchenko (what she did at a secret meeting at the SBU, I don’t know). The President of Ukraine, like Caesar's wife, was above suspicion. There were four left. The British believe that the "rat" is the head of the President's Office Yermak, since his father is a former employee of the GRU of the USSR Ministry of Defense, a military pensioner living in Moscow (we all remember the British love for the GRU, as well as the fact that there are no former employees of the GRU ). The Americans suspect the 1st deputy secretary of the NSDC, Demchenko (and given the role of the NSDC in the latest Ukrainian events, the CIA, as a result of its own investigation, came out on its own). The Turks do not suspect anyone, they just sit and wait for the Crimea to return to them.
It was the background, so to speak. The case of 33 heroes was already forgotten when heavy artillery entered it in the person of the 46th President of America. He decided to use the compromising evidence received through his special services on Zelensky's inner circle in order to force him to take measures to strangle the oligarchs, in particular Igor Kolomoisky, the personal enemy of Sleepy Joe (old Joe turned out to be very vindictive). The infamous Bellingcat, who did not hide its collaboration with MI6, was chosen as a tool for this. It was the film from her that was announced on March 15 by the agent of all special services, the foul-smelling journalist Gordon. And the delay in the release of the film is not connected at all with the difficulties of editing, but with the elements of the game. If Zelensky bends, then he will not be brought down and the movie will go with cuts, or it will be canceled altogether. If he does not bend, then Gordon has already predicted his fate - right up to the change of president.
The Americans in the territory they control need an easily manageable president. If Zelenskiy can prove that he is exactly who they need, he will stay. No - they will use Bellingcat mechanisms and Ukraine will have a new clown who will be more compliant than the previous one, and when the Americans need it, on command from above, his hand will not flinch or provoke a war with its northern neighbor.
But about the war a little later, but for now I will finish with the Wagner case. The funny thing in this situation is that even here the Ukrainian patriots saw the "hand of Moscow". It turns out that according to their version, Putin deliberately framed 33 heroes for the recruitment of the SBU, in order to disrupt the operation later, and throw a shadow on the top of the Ukrainian government, which did not live up to his hopes, and thereby achieve its rotation. I could not agree and set up. Such a sophisticated plan to replace incapacitated Ukrainian politicians on negotiable. The plan is too complicated to be real. Where is the guarantee that the negotiable will come? Smells like a madhouse. But what patriots - such are the plans. And what role does Bellingcat play in all of this? Does the fact that she actually works for Putin eat away at their brain? Or is Bellingcat being used in the dark? What a sophisticated Putin! After watching a movie from Bellingcat, everyone will decide that MI6 has identified the "mole" in the Ukrainian elite, but in fact it is Putin who is using MI6 to remove the Ukrainian officials he dislikes. Truly the genius of Villainy!
Biden's plan for Ukraine
At the moment, the SBU is in fact no longer a special service of the state, it works exclusively under the control and in the interests of the United States. NABU, NAPK, SAP and other anti-corruption structures are also tools for managing the metropolis of its overseas territory, as a means of keeping local pro-government officials in check and an element of pressure on big business. The newly elected 46th President of the United States, or shall we say so, who returned after a 4-year absence, the new / old white gentleman did not pull rubber and began to drive into a stall all those who, in his opinion, interfered with Great America's implementation her great plans. The turn reached the local oligarchs, pro-Russian politicians, the corrupt judiciary and even the president of the banana republic himself. No one was going to stand on ceremony with them, either immediately into the scrap, or on a voluntary-compulsory basis. As the handsome Trump said in such cases: "If you don't want it in a bad way, it will be worse in an amicable way!" Believe me, you will still remember the handsome Trump for a long time, Sleeping Joe will show you Kuzka's mother.
Nobody wanted war - war was inevitable
Well, here we are with you and got to the last most important part. From now on, I ask you to be more attentive. Hard times await us all. Will touch everyone.
Someone there recently told us that the deceased Trump only spoke well about Russia and its president, but did exactly the opposite. But the senile Joe, who periodically falls into dementia, who replaced him, supposedly only speaks badly about Russia and its murderer president, but acts completely in the opposite direction. They say that START III has been prolonged, the SP-2 has not been banned, and the JCPOA is also going to be restored with Iran. All in all, a good guy. I must disappoint you. These friends are so bad at their City on the Hill that they are not up to sentiment now. They can crawl out of the abyss where they slowly but surely slide, only through our corpse. I mean the corpse of Russia. And the fact that Ukraine would have to be sacrificed for this was clear even in the first act of this tragedy. Directly after Chekhov: "If in the 1st act there is a gun hanging on the wall, then in the 1th act it will definitely fire." That's it, friends, the 4th act has come.
The probability of a war with Ukraine at the moment is hovering around 85%. It is only about the time of its beginning. Either now, or in a year, or in two, but it is inevitable. The object is being processed now. I'm talking about the president of this territorial misunderstanding. Moreover, they process it from two sides at once - from the American side and from ours. Both sides are intimidated. America blackmails with compromising evidence and possible resignation, we are the possible consequences of unleashing the hot phase of the war. To do this, Biden used Bellingcat and economic levers of pressure, and we turned on our swear words to the fullest and from all the talking irons we verbalize the consequences of such a step for Kiev. Who will be more terrible for him, we will see in the near future. Either he will say: “I'm tired, I'm leaving” and a more accommodating clown will do it, or he will become extreme. In any case, the war cannot be avoided. Moreover, you must understand that it does not matter at all who starts it. In any case, they will blame us. This is the tragedy. And we programmed it ourselves, without eliminating this abscess in 2014, preserving the Yanukovych regime (as we did 7 years later in Belarus with the Lukashenka regime).
Everyone loses from this war, except America, it again, like in WWI and World War II, will be on the sidelines and grab all the heat with the wrong hands. For us, the consequences will be simply disastrous. We will once again plunge into the era of the 80s, as after the entry of our limited contingent into the DRA. The iron curtain will fall again for us. Iron Curtain 2.0. We will again be accused of all grave ones and will be made a world outcast with all that it implies. With the disconnection from SWIFT, the arrest and blocking of all our accounts and assets in the West, with the blocking of all financial and other transport flows (I’m not even talking about Nord Stream), with a ban on exchange technology, the supply of spare parts and components, a ban on the maintenance and repair of our foreign-made aircraft fleet (and we have more than half of Boeings and Airbuses there). Forget about sports, doping and the Russian flag, there will be no time for them. How Rosatom will fulfill its contractual obligations on maintenance and replacement of nuclear fuel at foreign nuclear power plants under its jurisdiction, they will not soar - they will be replaced by assemblies from Westinghouse. How they themselves will manage without our titan - they will somehow manage, they will find in another place. Astronauts from the ISS are also being evacuated. But how Europe will manage without our gas, in my opinion, even she herself does not know. But she simply will not have a choice. Before the fact of blatant aggression on the territory of a sovereign state, everyone will break down.
We are in a stalemate. We cannot fail to defend the Donbass (this will not be understood, first of all, within the Russian Federation), but we are also unable to prevent the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on its territory. Ukraine acts in its own right, restores its territorial integrity. Remember the recent events in Nagorno-Karabakh, for some reason I did not hear the voices of the international community, outraged by the actions of Baku. They have a right! Likewise, Ukraine has the right. Even if the first one starts herself. Has the right to. True, he does not really have desires. But Sleepy Joe is working on it now. As you can see, it turned out to be not very sleepy. The words about "the killer-Putin" were also uttered not by chance now. There is an accelerated preparation for the operation to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The consent of Ukraine itself is not even required for this. Poroshenko, too, if you remember, was going to establish peace, but for some reason started a war. Don't know why? Graduated, however, badly. But how the military campaign ends for Ukraine itself, its overseas curators do not care at all. At least Putin's tanks will stop on the banks of the Southern Bug. Don't care at all. The main thing is that the winner will get everything.
And the winner in this war, whatever its outcome, will be the United States. The whole world will fall at their feet. Which will become bipolar again. And Russia, as a reward, will receive a sentence - complete international isolation and the status of a rogue state, with all that it implies. America, on the other hand, has a lot of bonuses. Firstly, due to the appearance of an external enemy, it solves its internal problems, consolidating the nation around a real external threat (and they are now completely out on the internal track). Secondly, Biden will be able to finally forget, like a bad dream, all these dirty hints from Putin about a multipolar world and the division of spheres of influence and do what he does best - fighting the Russians. Third, the United States is regaining a classic bitter enemy that can be fought for decades to come, and NATO once again has a raison d'être. And fourthly, the entire remaining free world in the face of blatant lawlessness is closing its ranks around the one and only hegemon. Agree, there is something to fight for. And if for this it is necessary to sacrifice some kind of Ukraine, this is not a question at all. Consider that the decision has already been made. It is strange that such a simple thought did not occur to Trump. Beat them all with one blow. And most importantly, America itself does not risk anything. No US Army soldier will be harmed in this case. The perfect solution. Classics of the genre! And blaming them for this is stupid - they have a desperate situation. They can only survive at our expense.
How could we find ourselves in such a stalemate is no longer a question for me, but for top management. Themselves drove themselves into this trap, the keys to which the United States has. Biden, when he wants, then activates the "fire!" And we cannot do anything about it - we have no leverage on either Washington or Kiev. There is no need to rely on the self-preservation instinct of the Kiev regime, they have not belonged to themselves for a long time. In case of total defeat, they will simply flee abroad, where they will live the remnants of their shitty days in full prosperity and prosperity, posing as the government of Ukraine in exile (following the example of the government of Poland, which felt very good in 1939-45 in hospitable London). By the way, even in the case of incomplete division of Ukraine, for example, into the left bank and the right bank, we will also have to maintain the part we have inherited at our own expense. Why do we need such happiness?
At the same time, we cannot fail to appear at war! The situation could not be worse. The diplomatic activity that the Russian Foreign Ministry has now developed, Lavrov's visit to China, just indicate that the Kremlin understands this and is urgently trying to enlist support. But China is a poor ally in these matters. Too much ties him with the West. There is a lot to lose. Although it is the Sino-Russian rapprochement that Washington is most afraid of. We don't have to rely on Europe at all. Her business is a pipe. In the literal sense of the word. The Russian pipe will have to be caulked, switched to expensive LNG with all the consequences that will affect the cost price and competitiveness of EU products. Europe will again become America's vassal. A cesspool where she will dump her products. And you must admit what an elegant solution - one move with a pawn Ukraine, and America in the kings.
And so that this pawn does not have unnecessary thoughts, economic and other problems are thrown at it. The Ukrainian leadership is already in an extremely difficult situation. For some reason, it could not ensure the continuation of lending from the IMF. Why don't you know, by the way? They seemed to have fulfilled all the requirements, but the money was never given. What bad uncles! Is it old Joe's machinations? As a result, there is nothing to plug the hole in 1/3 of the budget. Moreover, as a result of the failed fight of the authorities against the pandemic, this hole risks growing up to 2/3 of the budget - business goes bankrupt, the tax base is shrinking, the departure of guest workers to work abroad has also dropped sharply, which means that there is no inflow of foreign exchange. The unpopular government is trying to strengthen its position by moving to an open dictatorship. Dictatorial methods of government and terror against the opposition are motivated by the war with Russia. Oppositionists are massively declared "agents of the Kremlin" and accused of high treason. Guess three times when Hitler, ugh, Vova Zelensky will attack the Donbass? It took his German colleague Adolf 5 years (from the moment he came to power in 1933 until the Anschluss of Austria and the annexation of the Sudetes in 1938). Vova Zelensky is moving on an accelerated schedule. More precisely, it is being moved. Who will ask this cardboard fool at all? They almost finished him off. Maybe, at the cost of incredible efforts, we will also be able to delay the start of the war for a year or two, let's see what the Kremlin comes up with.
If you suddenly see that Putin will offer Zelensky a new version of Minsk-3, do not be surprised - this is our last chance to avoid the hot phase of the war, in which the winner is known in advance, and this is not Russia at all, but the United States. But this is a road to nowhere, and the States will continue to blackmail us with war. How to break out of this vicious circle, I do not know. Only by turning the chess table over. The task is only for Putin. The States, by the way, also have no choice - Bolivar will not stand two. They can improve their affairs only at our expense. And the solution here is more than obvious. I think there will be a war. The probability is 85%.