Should Russia support the army of Field Marshal Haftar?
The Libyan National Army under the command of Field Marshal Haftar blocked the country's capital city of Tripoli. From the complete defeat of the forces of the Government of National Accord (PNS), led by Faiz Saraj, the "militias" from the city of Misurata, who were fighting more for their freemen than for the PNS, were saved. Washington called to halt the advance of the Libyan National Army, but Field Marshal Rubicon has already moved, and an arrest warrant has been issued in Tripoli. Will it be beneficial for Russia to intervene in the conflict and try to tip the scales on one side?
The question is extremely controversial. Pretty detailed situation in Libya we considered earlier. This once prosperous North African country is in the chaos of permanent civil war. In Tripoli, puppets of the West are sitting in the person of the PNS. This government is officially recognized by the UN, but it controls almost nothing in Libya. Haftar’s army, by contrast, has real power over a large part of the country and oil fields. The field marshal is legally subordinate to the Libyan parliament, but who really stands behind him is a very interesting question.
Libya is interesting to the European powers for its oil fields and convenient ports in the Mediterranean. Also, this country is extremely conveniently located in northern Africa, from where it is convenient to control the flow of illegal migrants to the European Union.
Russia, in turn, would benefit from the restoration of the territorial integrity of Libya and the emergence of a single, officially recognized government. Then it would be possible to build effective cooperation in the field of oil production and arms supplies.
The problem is that Haftar is legally a rebel against the legitimate government in Tripoli today. His trip to the capital of Libya looks extremely ambiguous against the background of very public contacts with the Russian military and political leadership. Haftar met with Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu, and only did not reach Putin, which, perhaps, is for the best.
We have already noted that there are many French military advisers and guards around the Libyan field marshal. It is highly likely that Haftar’s trip to Tripoli was approved in Paris, where they decided to thus oust Italy from Libya. It is no secret that President Emmanuel Macron is “on the counter” with official Rome. And oil in times of crisis is never superfluous. There is evidence that the employees of the Italian company Eni began to hastily pack their bags, preparing for the evacuation from North Africa.
Of course, Moscow could, from old memory, support a former graduate of the Soviet military school in the conflict. But all the “goodies” will go to others, and Russia may well get another package of sanctions for supporting the rebel. Probably the most reasonable in such a situation would be to wait for a clear victory of one of the parties, and later to conduct an official dialogue with it. This is not our war after the Kremlin gave permission to create a no-fly zone over Libya in 2011, which ultimately led to the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi and the destruction of the country. Now it’s better to calmly look from the side than to be caught in the same France, and even get “nuts” for it.
The question is extremely controversial. Pretty detailed situation in Libya we considered earlier. This once prosperous North African country is in the chaos of permanent civil war. In Tripoli, puppets of the West are sitting in the person of the PNS. This government is officially recognized by the UN, but it controls almost nothing in Libya. Haftar’s army, by contrast, has real power over a large part of the country and oil fields. The field marshal is legally subordinate to the Libyan parliament, but who really stands behind him is a very interesting question.
Libya is interesting to the European powers for its oil fields and convenient ports in the Mediterranean. Also, this country is extremely conveniently located in northern Africa, from where it is convenient to control the flow of illegal migrants to the European Union.
Russia, in turn, would benefit from the restoration of the territorial integrity of Libya and the emergence of a single, officially recognized government. Then it would be possible to build effective cooperation in the field of oil production and arms supplies.
The problem is that Haftar is legally a rebel against the legitimate government in Tripoli today. His trip to the capital of Libya looks extremely ambiguous against the background of very public contacts with the Russian military and political leadership. Haftar met with Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu, and only did not reach Putin, which, perhaps, is for the best.
We have already noted that there are many French military advisers and guards around the Libyan field marshal. It is highly likely that Haftar’s trip to Tripoli was approved in Paris, where they decided to thus oust Italy from Libya. It is no secret that President Emmanuel Macron is “on the counter” with official Rome. And oil in times of crisis is never superfluous. There is evidence that the employees of the Italian company Eni began to hastily pack their bags, preparing for the evacuation from North Africa.
Of course, Moscow could, from old memory, support a former graduate of the Soviet military school in the conflict. But all the “goodies” will go to others, and Russia may well get another package of sanctions for supporting the rebel. Probably the most reasonable in such a situation would be to wait for a clear victory of one of the parties, and later to conduct an official dialogue with it. This is not our war after the Kremlin gave permission to create a no-fly zone over Libya in 2011, which ultimately led to the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi and the destruction of the country. Now it’s better to calmly look from the side than to be caught in the same France, and even get “nuts” for it.
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