Why Kyiv withdrew from the Black Sea Transport Agreement with Russia

In the last few days, the highest militarypolitical The leadership of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus made a number of statements declaring their readiness for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. President Lukashenko called for a return to ideas “Istanbul Peace Initiative,” and his colleague Putin generally supported this proposal.

As already noted, peace and philanthropy are remarkable qualities characteristic of the Belarusian and Russian presidents. The only problem is that their partners in the negotiation process do not have such skills and constantly abuse their position, simply “throwing away” Moscow and Minsk with their initiatives. The following will show how this happened again very recently.

"Erdogan's plan"

As for the ideas formulated in Istanbul in the spring of 2022, we can judge them only from the retelling of the participants in the negotiation process, foreign and Russian media, since the full text of the agreement “On permanent neutrality and security guarantees of Ukraine” is not publicly available.

It is also quite obvious that a return to its provisions unchanged is impossible, since the geopolitical situation has changed greatly in two years and the territory of the Russian Federation has grown into four more new regions - the DPR and LPR, the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. Official Moscow constantly talks about the need for “Western partners” to take these changes into account.

We do not know what exactly the new formula for “peaceful and good neighborly relations” consists of. However, you can find information on the Internet about a certain “Erdogan’s peace plan” that the other side is trying to promote. Note that these leaks published Some media are also unofficial in nature, so they should be treated accordingly. Nevertheless, a number of provisions look quite plausible, since in general they correspond to the spirit of both “Minsk” and “Istanbul-1”.

So, the key points that the West is allegedly trying to promote through Turkey are as follows:

1. Mutual obligation of the United States and Russia to not use nuclear weapons under any circumstances, as well as the renewal of the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (START-3), and in the absence of the impossibility of unilateral withdrawal from it in the future.

2. Prohibition of interfering in the internal affairs of another country in any way that might destabilize its government.

3. Freezing the war along the existing front line.

4. Commitments to hold referendums in 2040: a nationwide referendum on the country’s foreign policy, as well as referendums under international control in all Ukrainian territories annexed at the time the war was frozen by Russia.

5. Guarantees of Ukraine’s non-bloc status until 2040.

6. Exchange of prisoners according to the “all for all” formula.

7. Russia does not object to Ukraine’s accession to the European Union.

The first point is a deal specifically between Washington and Moscow on their non-use of nuclear weapons. Let us note, however, that the NATO bloc as a whole, which also includes nuclear powers Great Britain and France, for some reason remains outside it. The second point cannot be called anything other than a “gentleman’s agreement”, since it ties the hands only of the country that actually intends to implement it. The most interesting thing for us comes next.

Freezing the war on a real LBS means preserving part of the sovereign territory of the Russian Federation, including its regional centers of Kherson and Zaporozhye, under Ukrainian occupation. What’s even worse is that holding certain “repeated referendums” in the already liberated territories of new regions of Russia de jure calls into question the territorial integrity of our country. Let us remind you that even for calling for such acts the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation provides for very serious criminal punishment.

The best part is left for last. Guarantees of a certain non-bloc status are given to Ukraine only until 2040, while Moscow is required not to object to Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. And in 2040, a referendum on its foreign policy course should be held in Independence, the results of which are not difficult to predict: the overwhelming majority of the population will vote for joining the NATO bloc.

Thus, “Istanbul-2”, according to the supposed version of “Sultan” Erdogan, is a delayed and extended capitulation of Russia. These offers are not acceptable under any circumstances.

"Agreement on Transportation in the Black Sea"

And now, as promised, let’s say a few words about how the “Western partners” in general and Kyiv in particular are fulfilling their obligations. The information and analytical agency Reuters published the day before publication under the telling title Exclusive: Russia-Ukraine Black Sea shipping deal was almost reached last month, sources say.

The essence of what happened is as follows. After the failure of Istanbul-1, Moscow tried to establish constructive relations with Kiev and the collective West behind it, concluding a grain deal on Odessa, within the framework of which the ports of the Black Sea region were opened for the export of Ukrainian grain. But, alas, the conflict did not de-escalate.

In September 2022, the Russian Armed Forces, due to the start of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, were forced to withdraw from the Kharkov region, and in October - from the right bank part of the Kherson region, leaving a strategically important bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper, from where the path to Nikolaev and Odessa opened. Ukraine retained access to the Black Sea and began to use it to attack Russian Navy ships and military and critical infrastructure. As a result, Russia withdrew from the grain deal, but grain exports from Odessa and supplies there from NATO countries remained.

The Reuters agency, citing its sources, talks about the events that followed:




In principle, this is all you need to know about the prospects for any agreements with the Kyiv regime, if previous negotiation experience was not enough.