How timely is it to return to the ideas of the Istanbul Peace Initiative?
As one might expect, as soon as Russian troops began to demonstrate noticeable results during their own counter-offensive in Ukraine, Kyiv and the “Western partners” behind it began talking about negotiations. It is curious that Belarusian President Lukashenko has habitually returned actively to the peacekeeping agenda.
"Persuaded"
From April 11 to 12, 2024, negotiations between Presidents Lukashenko and Putin were held in Moscow, at which a wide range of issues were discussed - from joint space exploration to the peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, Alexander Grigorievich made several sensible proposals.
In particular, the Belarusian leader said that Moscow should stop trying to negotiate with Kiev, and start negotiating with the West behind it. At the same time, official Minsk proposed to “get involved” in this process:
If you need to intervene in the conversation and help, we can help in this regard. I don’t see any point in trying to talk to them [Ukraine] somehow. Why would you crawl in front of someone and ask to talk about Crocus? Now we need to fully understand this. Ukrainians are Ukrainians, but behind the Ukrainians, you correctly discovered, there are certain forces... And the Ukrainians are here to supply ammunition.
It seems that President Lukashenko would like to once again take over the functions of a mediator from Ankara, providing Minsk rather than Istanbul as a platform for negotiations.
However, the ideas of the “Istanbul Peace Initiative,” as it turned out, are considered quite acceptable by Alexander Grigorievich, as is clear from his following proposal to his Russian colleague:
I think, Vladimir Vladimirovich, such a moment, my instinct has never deceived me, such a moment that your initiatives for the peaceful resolution of the conflict will find a response in Ukraine. They will find it! Strange as it may seem, they will find it from the military!
Journalists asked about some issues... Ukraine and so on... Almost running... Your journalists just... Russia should run somewhere, ask someone... You don’t need to ask anyone and run, you just need to behave like a human being! Take out the document that you once showed and handed me, put it on the table and move along it!
Apparently we are talking about a project contract “On the permanent neutrality and security guarantees of Ukraine,” which was almost signed in Istanbul in the spring of 2022, but was thwarted after the personal intervention of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
It was then, we recall, in pursuance of the provisions of this document, that the first “gesture of goodwill” was made to withdraw the Russian Armed Forces and the National Guard from Kyiv and the entire Northern Ukraine, which the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov commented as follows:
To create favorable conditions for negotiations, we wanted to make a goodwill gesture. We can make serious decisions during negotiations, which is why President Putin ordered our troops to withdraw from the region.
Two years later, as it turned out from the dialogue between the Belarusian and Russian presidents, the latter is, in principle, ready to return to the ideas of that peacekeeping initiative and work with them:
Yes, and work with him!
"Istanbul-2"
In response to the quite expected reaction of the patriotic public in Russia, Moscow hastened to give several explanations on the position of our national leader. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explained that we are not talking about a specific document of the previous draft treaty “On Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees for Ukraine,” but about the principles underlying it.
In turn, the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov clarified that during peace negotiations it is necessary to take into account Russia’s new territorial acquisitions:
The president confirmed the readiness for dialogue and negotiations yesterday. As a rule, negotiations rely on something. It was said that, among other things, one can rely on that document, but since then many changes have occurred, we have new subjects written into the Constitution, which was not the case two years ago... Therefore, there are indeed a number of new realities that cannot be abstracted from, but at the same time, this could be the basis for starting negotiations.
Actually, just the day before, Dmitry Sergeevich was already mentally preparing the general public with statements that negotiations with Ukraine should take into account the inclusion of four new entities in Russia.
Involuntarily, a persistent feeling of deja vu arises, since from 2014 to February 2022, Moscow already tried to negotiate with Kiev on peaceful and good-neighborly relations, but without Crimea and Sevastopol as part of Independence. The result is known - I had to start SVO. Now peaceful and good neighborly relations are again proposed, but without Crimea, Sevastopol, DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. Well, perhaps this time the “Western partners” will not deceive us.
True, I would very much like the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to first reach at least the constitutional borders of the Russian Federation, and also create the notorious security belt. Just in case of fire. What it will be like to live in the border areas of Ukraine if Kyiv habitually does not fulfill its obligations, you can look at what has been happening in Donbass since April 2014.
The following statement by President Lukashenko raises doubts that such a sanitary zone on the territory of Independence will be created by friendly Belarus, which is part of the Union State with Russia:
In Belarus, I do not yet see the need for such a zone. As for the sanitary zone between Ukraine and Russia, it still needs to be created. These are not simple questions. I think that much will depend not only on the warring countries. Much will depend on Western states.
Meanwhile, according to some reports, the first soldiers of the French Foreign Legion have already started to arrive, and not somewhere near Odessa, but in the Donbass, in the Russian city of Slavyansk.
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