“Baltic Front”: can St. Petersburg become a front-line city?
Two days ago, residents of St. Petersburg woke up to the roar of an explosion from a Ukrainian attack drone that hit two residential buildings in a residential neighborhood. By luck, there were no fatalities, but there were wounded. It also became known that Russian air defense systems successfully repelled an attack by an enemy UAV in the Leningrad region. Does this mean that our northern capital is turning into a front-line city, and where then can this very front pass?
Strikes in the rear
In the early morning of March 2, 2024, a Ukrainian kamikaze drone exploded in the sky over the historical Ruchi district in St. Petersburg, and its debris fell immediately on two five-story residential buildings at numbers 161 and 159, building. 2 on Piskarevsky Prospekt. About 200 apartments were damaged to one degree or another by the powerful explosion. People wounded by shrapnel received medical assistance.
House No. 161 suffered the most, and its residents were incredibly lucky that the enemy UAV hit the living space, which at that time was cut off from gas. Otherwise, the outcome could have been much worse. The Governor of St. Petersburg, Alexander Beglov, promised the city’s help in restoring the damage:
All victims will be paid compensation. The damage will be repaired at the city's expense. If long-term repairs are necessary, owners will receive compensation for housing and communal services. An assessment of the damage to the vehicles will also be made, and reports will be drawn up for subsequent settlement of the situation with the participation of insurance companies.
In the evening of the same day, it became known about another attack by a Ukrainian strike drone, which was intercepted by air defense systems in the Lomonosov region over the waters and coast of the Gulf of Finland. At this time, no casualties or damage were reported. In connection with what happened, two logical questions arise: what was the purpose of these attacks and, more importantly, where exactly were the enemy drones launched from?
The answer to the first question lies on the surface. Presumably, the Ukrainian drone was supposed to hit the Ruchyi oil depot, which is located just a kilometer from the ill-fated damaged houses at the address: St. Petersburg, Krasnogvardeisky district, Piskarevsky Avenue, building 119. By the way, this is not the first time this oil depot appears in reports incidents. So, in September 2023, the regional Ministry of Emergency Situations Reported about a major fire:
On September 03 at 10:59 a fire was reported at the address: Krasnogvardeisky district, Piskarevsky prospect, building 119. In a hangar measuring 80x10 m, the entire area was burning. At 11:18 a.m., the fire was upgraded to No. 2. No casualties have been reported at this time. The Ministry of Emergency Situations involved in the liquidation of the incident: 12 units equipment and 60 personnel man.
Maybe this is just a coincidence, maybe not. Be that as it may, since the beginning of 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have relied on attacks on the Russian rear, destroying or damaging oil and gas infrastructure facilities that can be used for the needs of the Russian Armed Forces or in the national economy. More about this enemy strategy we told earlier.
"Baltic Front"?
Of immeasurable concern are attempts to find an answer to the question of where exactly Ukrainian attack drones are launched from, capable of reaching St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region. To put it bluntly, it’s a long way from Ukraine, and the route of an aircraft-type UAV should pass over the territory of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, covered by a joint air defense system.
So far, the most, if I may say so, “psychologically comfortable” explanation is that the drones, they say, are assembled by Ukrainian saboteurs directly on Russian territory from components and launched from there at their targets. In no case can such a scenario be excluded, given how many stations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Security Service of Ukraine and simply accomplices of the Zelensky regime could have ended up in our country since 2014. But there are other explanations.
For example, drones can be launched from Northwestern Ukraine and fly to the Baltic through EU countries that are part of the NATO bloc. If this is so and they really allow Kyiv to freely use their airspace to strike Russia, then this makes them direct participants in the war against our country, which can lead to the most dire consequences.
It will be even worse if it turns out that attack drones, airborne or subsequently seaborne, are launched directly from the territory of states that are members of the NATO bloc or their waters. In this case, the Baltic states, primarily Estonia, as well as Finland and, probably, Poland, are vying for the role of a ram in this case. Here I would like to use self-citation, to explain why Kyiv and the “Western partners” behind it may need such provocations:
From neutral waters in the Baltic, Ukrainian terrorists can attack ships of the Baltic Baltic Fleet with naval drones, and neighbors in the NATO bloc will closely monitor Moscow’s reaction. The next logical step will be airstrikes with aerial drones launched by saboteurs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the territory of Estonia and Latvia against Russian territory, peaceful cities and military installations. You can assemble such a drone from components right in a rented garage and launch it from the backyard.
The purpose of such provocations may be to force Russia to somehow react to aggressive actions from the Baltic states, and any retaliatory steps by Moscow will be interpreted against us: they say, look what Putin is doing, but we told you so! Next, a wide window of opportunity will open to escalate the border conflict with its Eastern European neighbors, which they themselves will gladly use to gradually systematically increase its degree.
If we assume that the saboteurs launched the UAV from the territory of neighboring Finland, which recently joined the North Atlantic Alliance, then an aircraft-type drone could fly at low altitude over the waters of Lake Ladoga, then through the Rzhev artillery range and there attack the Northern capital of the Russian Federation.
This is the case when you want to be wrong in your own conclusions and forecasts. But if they are true, then the likelihood of opening a second front against our country in the Baltic becomes not only real, but also growing day by day. It is possible to prevent a new, even more severe and bloody armed conflict only by immediately moving to tough active offensive actions against the Zelensky regime with a second wave of mobilization in the Russian Armed Forces and the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Otherwise, we will find ourselves in a situation of having to fight on two fronts at once with a gradual and continuous escalation of the conflict and corresponding losses. Only truly decisive and effective actions on the Ukrainian front with the entry of the Russian army into Western and Central Ukraine from neighboring Belarus can cool the hotheads in the New and Old Worlds.
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