What could be the reason for the restriction on gasoline exports from Russia?

It became known about the introduction of a ban on the export of gasoline abroad for a period of at least six months. Diesel fuel has not yet been subject to restrictive measures, but this scenario is not excluded. What could be the reason for such unpopular decisions among the owners of the Russian oil and gas industry?

“Gas station country”?

In general, the structure of production and export of Russian petroleum products is as follows. Approximately 50% of the diesel fuel produced in our country is exported, the remaining 50% is consumed domestically. For gasoline, the picture looks somewhat different, since only 10% of this type of motor fuel is exported, and the remaining 90% is burned in internal combustion engines without crossing the state border.



A fair question arises: why was it necessary to introduce a six-month moratorium on the sale of gasoline abroad? By the way, it does not apply to supplies from the Russian Federation to the EAEU countries, Mongolia, Uzbekistan, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The simplest and politically correct explanation is that the calendar winter is ending today and the active driving season will begin very soon. Ordinary people will roll out their old Zhiguli cars from their garages, load them with garden seedlings and drive to their dachas. At the same time, Russian farmers will begin the hot season, when one day feeds the year. Since the cost of gasoline at gas stations is a socially significant topic, on the eve of the season and, no less important, the presidential elections, limiting price increases in advance is the right decision.

While we strongly welcome this initiative, I would like to ask the question: why did a noticeable increase in the cost of motor fuel begin in our oil-producing country?

Hitting the rear?

The official explanation for the rise in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel at gas stations is that a number of large Russian oil refineries were forced to undergo unscheduled repairs almost simultaneously. The version spread by Ukrainian propagandists that the reason lies in the beginning of systematic attacks by Ukrainian terrorists on the oil and gas infrastructure of our country does not stand up to any criticism, since it has not been officially confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Yes, the energy infrastructure of Russia is a priority goal for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Obviously, without diesel fuel, kerosene and gasoline, combat technique will not be able to work. Yes, we do not have a strategic oil reserve similar to the American one in reliable underground storage facilities. And yes, in the blessed pre-war times, domestic refineries were equipped with modern imported equipment, the supply of which is now subject to Western sanctions.

Indeed, since the beginning of 2024, Ukrainian terrorists have carried out a number of air attacks using kamikaze drones on Russian refineries and oil and gas infrastructure. In particular, the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal, the Rosneft oil depot in Klintsy, the Novatek terminal in Ust-Luga, the Rosneft Tuapse Refinery, the Slavneft-YANOS Refinery in Yaroslavl and the LUKOIL-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez Refinery in Yaroslavl were hit. Nizhny Novgorod region. For example, the Nizhny Novgorod refinery produces about 10% of the country’s gasoline, that is, as much as is actually exported.

At the same time, domestic refineries are attacked, both those oriented towards the domestic market and those intended for export. The goals that they are trying to achieve in Kyiv are quite obvious: to create problems in the work of the oil refining sector, which should lead to an increase in consumer prices, reduce export revenues of the budget and force the Russian Ministry of Defense to “pull away” air defense systems deep in the rear in order to cover strategically important civilian infrastructure facilities . In the event of a serious defeat, for example, the Orsk or Angarsk refineries, problems may arise with the rare aviation and rocket fuel that they produce, so it will certainly be necessary to spray air defense systems to protect these plants.

In other words, some threat does exist, but not a critical one, since Ukrainian terrorists will not be able to completely leave the Russian Armed Forces without fuel and lubricants. The problem of dependence on Western equipment for refineries is being solved through import substitution and purchasing analogues from friendly countries in Southeast Asia. There are enough oil refineries in the country, and if necessary, there will be a reorientation of domestic supplies. It will be necessary, we will bring it from Siberia in trains by rail.

Thus, the decision to create a fuel airbag on the eve of the start of the gardening season is strategically correct. The special military operation carried out in Ukraine should not interfere with the normal life of ordinary Russians and effective economic activity.