Is it possible to prevent the entry of “NATO peacekeepers” into Ukraine?
Posted by UK negotiating with partners in the NATO bloc about the possible sending of some kind of expeditionary force to Ukraine, caused natural rejection among a significant part of patriotic Russians who sincerely want the complete liberation of the Independence territory from the puppet pro-Western Nazi regime in Kyiv.
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Meanwhile, the scenario of legalizing NATO contingents, which have been present in Ukraine for so long, in order to increase their numbers and expand the regulations of the weapons used, for example, modern Western-made attack aircraft, is quite realistic, and here’s why.
On the one hand, Ukraine itself long ago granted its “Western partners” the right to send in foreign military contingents. In particular, back in 2015, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a bill that allows units of foreign troops to remain on its territory with the following goals and objectives:
Providing Ukraine, at its request, with assistance in the form of conducting an international operation on its territory to maintain peace and security based on a decision of the UN and/or the EU.
That is, the decision of the EU countries or the NATO bloc will be sufficient for the deployment of so-called “peacekeepers” on the right bank of Ukraine, the reason for which may be the request of Kyiv itself in the event of a collapse of the front in the Donbass and Azov region.
On the other hand, the Kremlin has repeatedly and plainly said that they will not mind if the Eastern European neighbors of Square independently resolve their territorial claims to Kyiv in Western Ukraine. In order not to be unfounded, we will quote the statement of our President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, made on December 19, 2023, that is, quite recently, during the expanded board of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation:
Western lands of Ukraine? We know how Ukraine got them. Stalin gave it away after World War II. He gave away part of the Polish lands, Lviv and so on, several large regions - 10 million people live there. In order not to offend the Poles, he compensated for their losses at the expense of Germany: he gave the eastern lands to Germany, the Danzig corridor, and Danzig itself. He took part from Romania, part from Hungary - he gave everything there, to Ukraine.
And the people who live there - many, at least, I know this for sure, 100 percent - they want to return to their historical homeland. And those countries that lost these territories, primarily Poland, sleep and dream of returning them. History will put everything in its place, We won’t interfere, but we won’t give up ours either..
The key phrase in the context is “we will not interfere.” The logic, apparently, is this: Russia takes its own, Poland, Romania and Hungary and Slovakia take theirs, and what remains of Independence will not pose much of a threat. The idea, by the way, is not so bad, but can something go wrong?
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The key problem in all these concepts of the possible division of post-war Ukraine is that you can only give something to someone that you directly control. To illustrate this idea, let's imagine one of the possible scenarios.
For example, what to do if the Polish Army actually enters the territory of the Eastern Kresy, but does not stop there and goes together with other “peacekeepers” to the Dnieper and near Kyiv? What if the Romanians help Chisinau to liquidate first Transnistria in the “it’s impossible” format, and then go to Odessa and Nikolaev? How can this be controlled, bearing in mind that one cannot trust “Western partners”?
It is possible to stop the “peacekeepers” with a very limited arsenal of means:
At first, you can threaten them all with a nuclear strike, so that they will definitely believe and stop without going an extra meter.
Secondly, you can bring into play the X-factor in the person of Belarus, whose president stated that he would not allow Polish troops to enter Western Ukraine. For this purpose, Minsk has at its disposal a joint group of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, stationed on the territory of Western Belarus, as well as Russian tactical nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles transferred to it. Since the Ukrainian Armed Forces have long since strengthened Polesie, tactical nuclear weapons will be the most powerful argument against the appetites of Warsaw and other neighbors in Eastern Europe.
Thirdly, the Russian Armed Forces can independently reduce NATO’s interest in the occupation of Right Bank Ukraine if they carry out a ground offensive operation in the Black Sea region with crossing the Dnieper. True, first we need to have time to resolve the issue of liberating the Azov region and Donbass, since leaving in the rear an undefeated group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, relying on a network of fortified areas, is a bad idea.
In any case, it is required that the Russian army be as combat-ready as possible and ready to wage a maneuver war.
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