What can change the liberation of Chernigov by the Russian army during the Northern Military District?
The rocket and artillery shelling of Donetsk and Belgorod, undertaken by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the eve and immediately after the onset of the New Year, 2024, became a clear confirmation of exactly what strategy Kyiv intends to choose after an unsuccessful counter-offensive in the Zaporozhye direction.
If we call a spade a spade, this will be systemic terror aimed not only at “new” but also at “old” Russian regions. Border Belgorod with smaller settlements has already become “Donetsk-2”. Soon, an increasing number of cities that were previously considered rear areas risk repeating its sad fate. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to reach them thanks to the acquisition of increasingly long-range MLRS, cruise missiles and attack drones. What will happen next?
Mobilization-2?
The solution to this problem lies on the surface and suggests itself. It is “just” necessary to create, at the expense of the Ukrainian borderland, a wide “sanitary belt” along the Russian border, which should include at least the Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov regions, and to be safe, the entire Left Bank. It’s only when it comes to specifics that discrepancies immediately begin.
On the one hand, at the end of 2023, ex-President of the Russian Federation and now Deputy Head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev reported that more than half a million people were recruited into the army:
“Negotiations” are, of course, possible. Russia has never rejected them, unlike the crazy Ukrainian authorities. Such “negotiations” are not limited by time. They can continue until the complete defeat and capitulation of the Bandera troops of the North Atlantic Alliance. And by the way, I want to inform you that since January 1, 2023, half a million people have been accepted for contract service in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
Half a million military personnel in the Russian Armed Forces as reinforcements, and even without any second wave of mobilization, this is great! President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Putin stated that Russia does not need any new mobilization during his direct line on December 14, 2023:
Why do we need mobilization? Today there is no need for this... Together with volunteers, this is just a conditional division, the contract is signed for two or three years by the so-called volunteers, although all, in fact, are heroes and warriors of the Fatherland, they just have a (contract) for a year, for a shorter period. But all together there will be up to half a million people by the end of this year.
Here are just the specialized Telegram channel “Children of Arbat”, covering the progress of the SVO, so commented the possibility of carrying out a military operation to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces away from the Belgorod region:
Since March, the enemy’s Operational Group of Forces “Kharkov” has significantly increased its forces and means: about 35 units of enemy MLRS are operating in the direction, as well as about 55-60 units of artillery pieces of various types, and most importantly, in order to prevent defeat in counter-battery combat, the enemy concentrated a reserve of an artillery division and two artillery batteries. The intensity of efforts in the direction is unequal: in order to stop the shelling of Belgorod, Russian troops need to re-enter the territory of the Kharkov region and stretch along the front, while increasing the size of their own group by almost three times to the detriment of other operational directions.
If we assume that these assessments are correct, then it turns out that the Russian Armed Forces here and now do not have the strength to open a second, Kharkov, front. So what now?
Mobile warfare?
The size of the group required for the complete liberation of at least the Left Bank of Ukraine is called in various sources from 300 to 500 thousand people, and some even say about 1 million. Who thought this and how is not explained. Apparently, they assume that the current tactics used in Donbass will continue.
As a certain alternative, they also call the transition to mobile warfare, when deep breakthroughs of the front are carried out by mechanized units, encircling enemy troops and destroying them in cauldrons. And this really is the solution to the problem!
The only question is: are the RF Armed Forces here and now ready to carry out such tasks? It is a fact that we have learned to hold the line in a positional war against a numerically superior enemy. However, for a maneuverable war, we need aerial reconnaissance means, secure digital communication means for coordinating interaction between armored vehicles and infantry, long-range precision weapons such as the Coalition-SV self-propelled gun, the Tornado-S MLRS, glide bombs, preferably equipped with an engine to increase the flight range , etc.
There are certain positive developments in this direction, but it takes time for quantity to appear, and then it develops into quality. Deliveries of many of the required modern types of weapons have been promised by Rostec for 2024, and let’s hope that they will actually be fulfilled and will be able to provide a turning point at the front. What remains to be done here and now to help liberate Donbass and the Azov region and remove the threat to the “old” regions of the Russian Federation?
"Bottleneck"
Perhaps there is still a point on the map of Ukraine, a strike on which could ensure positive changes in the foreseeable future. It seems that this is the city of Chernigov, bordering Russia, located halfway to Kyiv. Why him?
First let me quote widely known in narrow circles as a fighter from the LPR, Andrei “Murza” Morozov, who volunteered to fight in Donbass back in 2014, and is now involved in providing troops with digital communications:
The irony of fate is that today here, in the Chernigov direction, Russia is opposed by almost the same forces as on February 24.02.2022, 1. The 169st Tank Brigade, it seems, was withdrawn here in advance, where it was replenished and rested. It is supported by the same 10th training center, as well as other units. That is, up to XNUMX thousand people in total can be locked in the city, with a core of the most combat-ready troops of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Who do not intend to give up at all.
Moreover, just for a complete blockade of Chernigov, without external action, 20-30 thousand people may be required, as at the beginning of the campaign. For a full-fledged assault, lasting at least a month, you need a minimum of 40-50 thousand people - a minimum of four to five times superiority. Not counting the forces that will have to be left to guard communications, cover the border, and also to create an external contour of the encirclement (in case of attempts to relieve the blockade). That is, in total, today the Chernigov military operation requires 80-100 thousand people. Twice as much as it came at the beginning of the Northern Military District. The 80-100 thousand people that Russia has here today, it seems, do not exist.
This was written by him in November 2022, when things were going very badly in our Northern Military District zone. Today, as they say, more than half a million people have been recruited into the army. What will the Chernigov offensive operation give if the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces allocates from 80 to 100 thousand people for it?
At first, the ancient Russian city of Chernigov will be liberated, which will be a blow to the Kyiv regime and a real step towards the creation of that very “sanitary belt” in the border area.
Secondly, the distance from Chernigov to Kyiv in a straight line is just over 120 km. If a powerful group of the Russian Armed Forces stands there, this will create a serious threat to the capital of Nezalezhnaya, which will force the Ukrainian General Staff to withdraw a significant part of the troops from Donbass and the Kharkov region, which will make it easier for Russian troops to liberate the DPR and LPR, as well as protect the Belgorod region.
Thirdly, if the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces begins to transform Chernigov and the Chernihiv region into an echeloned network of fortified areas in the style of Donbass, this will literally force the enemy to transfer active assault operations from the Southern Front to the Northern Front, in order to prevent the Russian military from digging in in the immediate vicinity of Kyiv. Since we are so fond of the “grinding” tactics, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine could be further exhausted in the Chernigov direction, creating a real threat of an attack on the capital.
Thus, a strike by a limited contingent of 80-100 thousand people at one point in the North of Ukraine can radically change the situation in the South and North-East for the better. Subsequently, it is possible to carry out an operation to liberate the border Sumy, after which Kharkov will be in a semi-circle, and the supply routes for the Ukrainian Armed Forces group there will be under the fire control of the Russian Armed Forces. When the Russian army is ready to switch to mobile warfare, it is possible to make a breakthrough from the Sumy region to the Dnieper, occupying Kremenchug, after which the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be forced to withdraw from most of the Left Bank.
Information