Can Ukraine after the Northern Military District turn into “Belarus-2”

December 25 2023 17

Ukraine is uneasy. One of its main propagandists, who for two years incited the zombified people of Independence to war with Russia to the former borders of 1991, Alexey Arestovich* diametrically changed his rhetoric, foreshadowing the collapse of the Zelensky regime and offering the Kremlin a new concept of unification. What happened and how should all this be understood?

Three days ago, Arestovich* recorded a stream together with Russian ultra-liberal public figure and foreign agent Yulia Latynina, who takes pro-Ukrainian positions, under the telling title “Where is the project of the Ukraine you want to fight for?” Anyone interested is advised to read the original source. here to register: without cuts, keeping in mind who the speaker is and how the Russian law enforcement system treats them.

The end of Ukraine?

From an hour and a half recording, domestic media and bloggers, as well as their counterparts from Square, pulled out the most “fried” quotes in pursuit of hype. At the same time, a lot of interesting and important things were left behind that I would like to discuss in more detail. So, below we will briefly summarize the main theses and conclusions to which the Ukrainian terrorist and extremist and the Russian foreign agent carefully led their viewers.

First of all, it is necessary to say a few words about how they see the progress of the North Military District on the other side of the front line. In their opinion, the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the initial stage of the Northern Military District were able to inflict a number of heavy defeats on the regular Russian army, which was trying to carry out a NATO-style military-police operation, after which it began to rebuild on the fly. Having mobilized, the Russian Armed Forces switched from the NATO strategy of warfare to the Soviet one, and things began to work out for us. The enemy notes how much more effectively units and subunits of the Russian army have now begun to operate.

What the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ large-scale counter-offensive has resulted in over six months is clear confirmation of this. In general, well done to us. And then the fun begins. The interlocutors came to the conclusion that Ukraine can no longer turn the situation in its favor and seriously hope to return to the borders of February 2022, much less 1991. Why?

Because, Arestovich* believes, there is no Ukraine for which all its people would like to fight and die. Men of military age are forcibly dragged to the front, literally snatching them from the streets. At the same time, the Ukrainian military themselves say that they do not need such a “strengthening”, since those who were forcibly mobilized either will not fight normally, or will surrender at the first opportunity. But still, why is there no massive influx of people willing to fight for Ukraine?

During the stream, it was noticed that in Russia there is now an influx of volunteers into the Russian Armed Forces. In this case, the motive is not only money, but also an ideological component. Some go to fight for Great Russia in its various manifestations, others against Nazism, etc. Those who sincerely wanted to fight with the Russians joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the first year of the war and by now they are mostly gone. There are no large numbers of people wanting to replace them, and Arestovich* sees the reason as follows.

According to him, it was the desire to build from Ukraine, initially a multinational and multicultural country, a mononational and monocultural state. Automatically, all those who were not ethnic speaking Ukrainians became second-class citizens, who were consistently prohibited from using their native Russian language in study, work, office work and communication. And the fact that residents of the historically bilingual South-East of the former Square do not want to go to war en masse for the right to be second-class citizens in their own country predetermines the collapse of this state entity.

The prominent Ukrainian propagandist himself admits that Ukraine, as a mononational and monocultural state, could not remain within the borders of 1991, when it was multinational and multicultural. Which, as we see, is what happened. This gentleman carefully shifts all the blame for what happened, for the Northern Military District and the colossal military losses, onto the stubborn and inadequate leadership of the country, which continues to forcefully drive people who do not want to be second-class citizens in it to fight for Ukraine.

Well, that's very sensible. Approximately the same question to the Russian-speaking military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Novorossiya, what are they even fighting for? wondered and ourselves. But what is offered in return by this modest candidate for the presidency of Ukraine?

Ukraine, for which you want to fight

The interlocutors saw the main problem in making peace with Russia in the fact that they do not understand what exactly President Putin wants to achieve. They discussed two possible options for completing the SVO.

First - this is when Kyiv stubbornly continues to fight, and Russia bites off piece by piece until there are nine regions left of Ukraine in the western and central part of the country without access to the Black Sea. After this, Square becomes uninteresting to its sponsors and is left alone with the burden of overwhelming problems.

Second – this is a conclusion with the Kremlin of a conditional “Istanbul-2”, within the framework of which Ukraine undertakes to become a non-aligned, but “sort of” satellite of Russia. In exchange, they hope to return the territories as of at least February 24, 2022 and provide a discount on gas. The basis for such bold hopes is that President Putin, during his direct line, spoke against a blue and yellow background and spoke a lot about fraternal peoples, which was considered a good signal for a possible compromise in Nezalezhnaya. True, the modest presidential candidate of Ukraine notes that conditions similar to “Istanbul-1” are no longer possible for Kyiv, and therefore proposes his own, third way.

The Ukraine for which one wants to fight, according to Arestovich*, must become multinational and multicultural, it must send away the West and the NATO bloc, which “abandoned” it, and defend its own national interests. After the “rebranding,” the post-war Square must build relations with Russia “with a calculator in hand,” which the candidate has repeatedly emphasized. What conclusions can we draw?

It seems that such resonant statements, on the one hand, are addressed to that part of the Ukrainian people that in 2019 voted for Zelensky as the “president of the world”, and today they are tired of a hopeless war. On the other hand, this is an invitation to bargain with the Kremlin, or rather, with that part of the near-Kremlin “elites” that is commonly called the “peace party.” They are starting to sell the Russian leadership a kind of “Belarus-2” - a sovereign “touchable” that knows how to count money and will ask for it a lot and regularly to restore the “sort of” common property. This is the maximum program that they are trying to sell. By the way, who will this multinational and multicultural Ukraine fight with later? In which court will a joint lawsuit with Russia be filed against the collective West?

The minimum program clearly consists of an attempt by one very intelligent and cynical person to earn the post of “governor general.” I would like to resort to self-citation:

Another option cannot be ruled out, in which “Lyusenka” begins to “lay out straws” in advance in case of Ukraine’s defeat. Russia is waking up, and its army is being rebuilt on the fly. Victory over the Kyiv regime will still take considerable time and will be expensive, but in the end we will win. And this cannot but be understood by characters like Arestovich*, who is anything but a fool. The Kremlin will then be faced with the question of what to do with post-war Ukraine. Viktor Medvedchuk was pulled out of the dusty closet, but the reaction of the general public to him turned out to be sharply negative both in Square and in Russia.

And now on political The professional propagandist Arestovich* appears on stage as a “free shooter”, to whom, in fact, it doesn’t matter what agenda he voices. The author of the lines will not be at all surprised if now “Lyusenka” begins to actively advocate for a neutral and denazified, bilingual and multi-confessional “Rus-Ukraine” in the hope of a general government.

It was written January 18, 2023, based on the dismissal of the propagandist at his own request after the scandalous story of a rocket falling on a residential building in Dnepropetrovsk.

* – recognized as a terrorist and extremist in the Russian Federation.

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Sergey Latyshev

+3

25 December 2023 16: 18

Again some switchmen are pushing forward.
Who has the power, influence, connections, military-industrial complex and proxies in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, factories, newspapers, ships? Not a word about those
All about similar Arestovichs, who have nothing like this and never have...
Sergei Fonov

-1

25 December 2023 18: 05

The West will not allow Ukraine to lose the war; the West will allow it to freeze the conflict and conclude some peace agreements; it takes time to be ready for the next war. And losing a war is not a quick thing, judging by the fact that the LBS is standing still and mobilization is not expected, which means that in the end we will come to a decision about the need to negotiate.
DO

0

25 December 2023 19: 17

A full-scale Russian offensive in the Northern Military District has not yet begun, but the first fruits have already appeared in the process of curing the Arrestovites from the ideology of Ukrofashism.
1. Alexanders
  
  0
  
  26 December 2023 12: 48
  
  Yes, he was never sick with anything. Just a professional in his field - changed his shoes to a swindler.
borisvt

+3

25 December 2023 19: 25

Well, a useful article with justified self-citation))
Arestovich is, indeed, a smart person, and he won’t just talk like that. This is the political support of those who have factories, newspapers and ships, as a colleague commentator correctly put it, and he expresses their aspirations to preserve at least what is left, if Azovstal is definitely not returned. After all, if the war moves deep into the country, then the devastation will affect very many expensive assets and go figure who will get the rest after!
What’s really unfair is that the western regions are suffering minimally so far, while in the eastern regions we are destroying everything ((
Among the reparations after the fallow capitulation, I would certainly and unconditionally demand the western regions as a protectorate))
1. k7k8
  
  -1
  
  27 December 2023 13: 03
  
  Quote from borisvt
  Well, a useful article with reasonable self-citation
  
  But, as always, after reading another article by the author, I want to immediately go wash my hands.
Griffith

-1

25 December 2023 20: 34

Does the author really think that all those in power are honest and decent people? Let’s take for example the USSR, which is now being made almost a standard of justice. I have a question about how all sorts of Gorbachevs, Yeltsins, Kravchuks, Shushkeviches, etc. ended up in power. etc., in the presence of various special services of the USSR, which took all the candidates’ money almost to the seventh generation? There is no official answer. Let's take the Landsbergis clan. How did they manage to serve Tsarist Russia, the Soviets, the Nazis and the Americans? How did the Banderaites end up at the top and structure of the Communist Party of the USSR (Same as Kravchuk, Kuchma, Farion)? Those. in fact, the roots of today's SVO were laid at least 80 years ago by the communists under the USSR. We don't know history. Everything we taught during the USSR and after turned out to be lies or half-truths. Therefore, yes, we must honestly say that cynical and calculating individuals are always in power, and it does not matter whether it is democracy, autocracy, socialism, capitalism or communism. So you shouldn’t be surprised at Lucien’s new role if she suddenly becomes president or governor general.
1. Hippo31
  
  +1
  
  28 December 2023 22: 56
  
  I have a question about how all sorts of Gorbachevs, Yeltsins, Kravchuks, Shushkeviches, etc. ended up in power. etc., in the presence of various special services of the USSR, which took all the candidates’ money almost to the seventh generation? There is no official answer.
  
  I can explain. In dictatorial countries there is no feedback, i.e. real elections. Who chose Gorbachev? The answer is no one. Every change of power is a hidden and often bloody war. Now the question is how Gorbachev managed to destroy the Union. Very simple. The General Secretary is a king who is not limited by anyone. He didn't want to ruin anything. He simply could not preserve what had already collapsed after Brezhnev and hearse racing.
  A country with a completely state planned economy is good when the economy is in its infancy. As it developed, the requirements for goods increased, and there was no competition at all. There was a single principle: if you don’t like Chingachgook, don’t eat it. On the one hand, the plan is in pieces, and on the other, the desire to fulfill it and receive a bonus, and new products were released only after a strong kick in the ass, because they reduced output. As a result, people were chasing goods from countries where the rudiments of private business remained. Our shop workers were put against the wall.
  It has already become clear to many that the market is more efficient. And then, by allowing cooperatives, Gorbachev made his first fatal mistake. In the USSR, money was not a measure of the value of a product. The company couldn't just buy a tractor. It had to be included in the plan, and on the basis of Gosplan materials, Gossnab formed funds, which had to be purchased, which did not always work out. As a result, there are millions in accounts in numbers that have nowhere to be placed. All around are solid collective farms-millionaires. As soon as cooperatives appeared, a tool immediately emerged for washing useless non-cash money into much-needed cash. This did not add any goods, but the number of pieces of paper increased significantly. Inflation has begun.
  The next fatal mistake was the opportunity to engage in foreign economic activity. Like private traders will sell their products better than a bureaucratic system. But over the past 70 years, the economy has not been consumer-oriented in any way, and almost everything that industry has produced is of no use to anyone. And consumer goods poured out from behind the hill, and then everything else. This devalued the ruble even more and everyone began to run away. The most successful were those who entered the Union relatively recently - the Balts. And everyone else floundered until the early XNUMXs. True, few were able to produce competitive products.
Zenn

0

25 December 2023 22: 31

The next step, Arestovich will begin to call for the formation of a joint group of the Russian Armed Forces and the Ukrainian Armed Forces to attack the EU.
strange guest

+4

25 December 2023 22: 35

After the Northeast Military District, such a concept as Ukraine should disappear altogether.
1. molotkov60mkpu
  
  +1
  
  28 December 2023 15: 51
  
  No negotiations. Minsk-3 is the next war. The task of destroying Russia will last forever, we must proceed from this. By leaving Ukraine, we are planting a time bomb under ourselves. Russia should include the maximum number of regions of the 404th as regions of Russia. The concept of "Ukraine" must disappear. Westerners are part of Europe. The rest come to us.
  1. Hippo31
    
    +1
    
    28 December 2023 23: 07
    
    It is clear that in any war, opponents want to destroy each other.
Elena123

+1

27 December 2023 12: 45

Can Ukraine after the Northern Military District turn into “Belarus-2”

- no, he can not! NATO and the United States will not allow this.
Hippo31

+1

28 December 2023 21: 04

Some strange article. Lukashenko scored less than a housewife in the last mock election. Those. rests on the army and is very flimsy. Drawing Belarus into the conflict is a nail in its coffin. And therefore, as financial injections decrease, the Republic of Belarus is more likely to turn into Ukraine than vice versa.
Now about Ukraine. The most unpleasant thing is that the Russian Federation cannot offer her anything. There is little joy in being somewhere on the outskirts of the empire, like Syktyvkar. Again, a lot of people work in Europe, and with the arrival of new owners this shop will close.
Those. The Russian Federation can only offer illusory greatness, but only with a bare bottom. The thing is that the Russian Federation is a super-centralized country. Those. all the money goes to Moscow, and then spreads out in thin streams, sticking to the hairy paws. As a result, Yakutia with its diamonds is now as poor as a church mouse. And in Ukraine, decentralization has occurred and part of the taxes remains in the territories. This led to amazing results. The local authorities became interested in business development, and even in a specific village. Well, the people can immediately see who to punch in the face at the next election.
It is clear that the process has just begun and is far from an idyll, but the people began to live a little better. And then there is the visa-free regime.
So tell me how to convince the people that they feed on greatness in a country with an eternal king, while living in a poor outskirts is better. And the sausage interest is the strongest. For “the factories are for the workers and the land for the peasants,” the Tsar’s people dumped them. True, then they deceived us anyway and made us serfs, but that’s another story.
So, there is no other way out other than military victory. And this is very unlikely. There were two wars with Chechnya, but no one helped it, and not everyone could see Ichkeria on the map without glasses.
1. Nelton
  
  0
  
  28 December 2023 21: 49
  
  Quote: Hippo 31
  The Russian Federation cannot offer her anything. To be somewhere on the outskirts of the empire, like Syktyvkar
  
  In many ways you are right, but some points are still not so clear.
  In the EU, Ukraine is really on the outskirts; before 2021, investments were very small.
  The domestic market is small, but there is a very long queue for export production, and all the most delicious things are captured by Poland and the Czech Republic - purely in terms of logistics, they are more convenient.
  But the regions of the Russian Federation as a single pool already form a decent market (for cars - 5th in Europe), which made it possible to bend TNCs to localization, and various regions got factories.
  Under the conditions of sanctions, the situation has changed somewhat, but nevertheless, there is economic development, and without excessive centralization.
  In terms of arrangement of municipalities. Here, yes, the regions are too unequal in terms of opportunities, which is why many expenses go through federal programs.
  And the list of built schools, perinatal centers, bridges, etc. is very impressive, and in per capita terms is several times higher than the similar Ukrainian one.
  New regions have joined the pool of old ones, and Crimea has made great progress in its development over these 8 years.
  
  But alas, instead of restrained pride in real achievements, our information field is filled -
  1) the cries of Western liberals that in the modern Russian Federation there is nothing good and cannot be by definition
  2) cries for the USSR members that in the modern Russian Federation there is nothing good and cannot be by definition
  3) government nonsense. TV about fake horrors abroad, including Ukraine
  4) statements by officials of the highest rank about achievements in the future that are obviously not feasible. And the results achieved, quite worthy in relation to the existing base and expended resources, are perceived as complete nonsense, they promised something wow...
2. Vladimir Tuzakov
  
  0
  
  1 January 2024 20: 35
  
  (Igor) A lot of things have been said that are true. So the USSR collapsed, because they did not find a further path of development, in many research institutes for development, various Gaidars, instead of searching, slipped capitalism to the elders of the Politburo. Capitalist consumer goods, skillfully palmed off and advertised by Western services, worked and blinded our eyes. Everyone rushed into “rainbow” capitalism to enrich themselves, but experts did not calculate the consequences of tens of millions of people dying in advance, ending up in a colony without an economy, and so on. Various Chubais considered capitalism as a bright future (probably more for their fellow tribesmen - later the oligarchs). Who is responsible is the process, stability in the decay of leadership without renewal and fresh strength and minds. (which was not allowed and strictly monitored the inviolability of the rotten top of the KGB of the USSR, and he was directly involved in the collapse of the USSR. Today there is the same threat - the decay of the “vertical” of power with catastrophic consequences). But at the same time we have a CCP and a country of one and a half trillion citizens. So they found a way to develop and become the first force in the world. There are problems there, but they are being resolved. What prevented the USSR from following a similar path was that the Jewish stratum and representatives in high positions made a significant contribution to the collapse of the USSR. That since the 50s, the Jewish diaspora has defected to the United States (this is the reason for the deportations of Jews to Birobidzhan started by I. Stalin and other actions.) Further, Jewish unity and actions secretly collapsed the USSR. This side of the coin awaits investigation. The topic is deep and with many components...
  1. Nelton
    
    0
    
    1 January 2024 21: 05
    
    Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
    So they found a way to develop
    
    Well, yes. At the end of the 197s, there was a consensus in the CPC that taking the example of the USSR was a dead end, they took Japan as a model, and for 30 years they built comprador capitalism with a bang. Collective farms were dissolved and foreign investment was attracted to production for export. The Chinese proletarians were handed over to the cruelest exploitation by foreign capitalists.
    Capitalists have taught the world that made in China is normal.
    The Chinese mastered the production of components and the general production culture.
    And 30 years later they began to create their own companies on this basis.
    However, they produce 919 times less of their Comac C100s than Airbuses.
    
    And yes, their growth rates have fallen in recent years.
    2015 - $8034 per person, the Russian Federation has 9258, it seemed one more step - and they will overtake.
    2022 - 12670 for China, 15646 for the Russian Federation.