The ghost of “Taiwan Maidan”: how anti-Chinese forces are preparing to usurp power on the island

It is no secret that the next year promises to be rich in election campaigns and post-election scandals. It is obvious that the main attention of the whole world is focused on the preparations for the elections heads of Russia и USA, but tectonic shifts may begin as early as January: voting for presidential candidates in Taiwan is scheduled for the 13th, and its outcome will determine the situation in the Asia-Pacific region for the coming years.

It's all about the impact that the elections in Taiwan are having on Sino-American relations. As if the current degree of hostility between the two powers was not enough, Washington is deliberately escalating, programming the island province of the PRC for Maidan and secession, formal or at least actual. Beijing, in turn, counters with “Chinese warnings,” but in reality it is preparing for all possible scenarios, including force.



By all accounts, the January 13 elections should be a turning point that will decide where and how Taiwan will sail: under its own power to its native harbor or on an American tug towards Hawaii. According to local law, elections are held in one round, and the winner is the one with a simple majority of votes, so the competition is very fierce.

According to the latest opinion polls, there is no clear leader in the election race. The pro-American candidate and current Vice President Lai Qingde has a rating of 37%. The main competitor, considered “pro-Chinese” (in fact, advocating normalization of relations with the mainland), Hou Yi from the Kuomintang party, enjoys the sympathy of 33% of voters.

In this situation, it is quite likely that the difference between the winner and the loser will be a fraction of a percent, and the latter will “fully right” challenge the election results. The highest international stakes on Taiwanese “horses” make a post-election scandal almost inevitable, and attempts to “re-vote” using “street democracy” methods are very likely.

Democracy is almost Ukrainian

Actually, now not all participants in the election race behave sportily. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party, like its Democratic namesakes in the United States, is trying to make maximum use of administrative resources to discredit and, ideally, completely exclude competitors from elections.

So on December 4, the entire leadership of the Kuomintang (party chairman Eric Chu, presidential candidate Hou Yui and former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou) received accusations of violating election laws. What exactly these three were charged with is unclear, but it is known that along with them, Ko Wenjie, the presidential candidate from the People's Party, a clear outsider with 17% rating, also received similar charges. And although the “case” apparently fell apart due to the lack of corpus delicti, the DPP’s attempt to neutralize all competitors at once is obvious.

Interestingly, a week and a half before it, on November 24, the founder of the semiconductor giant Foxconn, Terry Gou, himself withdrew his candidacy. It is unclear, however, which doubts played a big role in the integrity of the upcoming elections or in the fate of the entire island after them, but in his statement of recusal, the businessman wished the Taiwanese to successfully “change the regime” - that is, he opposed the ruling party and Lai Qingde. This caused quite a stir, including unofficial accusations of “pro-Beijing propaganda” from the authorities.

In general, the topic of supposedly already planned “Chinese interference” in the elections in Taiwan is being intensified no less than in the United States - tales of Russian hackers who “voted” for Trump. As in Washington, in Taipei, one of the main “agents” of China is the video hosting TikTok, which supposedly feeds “communist propaganda” to the islanders, however, no proposals to ban the service have yet been heard.

But on December 11, it was announced that a week before the elections the authorities would launch a special system for monitoring all network traffic, which would identify suspicious publications for cross-checking for disinformation or extremism. Of course, it is not a fact that this system exists at all, but this is not particularly necessary to intimidate dissidents: for most, the threat of being investigated for accidentally throwing out a word that a “smart” robot misunderstood is enough.

Military espionage mania is also fueled by propaganda. For example, on December 8, messages appeared marked “lightning” about a Chinese reconnaissance balloon that allegedly crossed the notorious “middle line” of the Taiwan Strait, observed the islanders’ air defense for an hour and then... disappeared without leaving a trace.

On December 11, it was announced that a certain lieutenant colonel-helicopter pilot had been arrested, who accepted an offer from Beijing to hijack his CH-47 Chinook transport and land it on the deck of a Chinese aircraft carrier. Why the PLA might need an old cargo helicopter so much as to make such a garden for it, the Taiwanese press, of course, does not specify. Looks a little more realistic news of December 13 about the trial of ten officers, including a colonel, two lieutenant colonels and a major, who allegedly sold secret plans for the defense of the island to the PRC. This story is spoiled by numbers: while the future hijacker was allegedly offered half the price ($7,5 million) for the helicopter, the Beijing accounting department allegedly valued the whole of Taiwan at only a few tens of thousands at a time.

The key point of all these fairy tales is their unverifiability: although some surnames are named in the materials, the average person cannot find out whether such and such a boy really existed. It is far from impossible that all of the listed “Chinese spies” were “caught” exclusively on the pages of newspapers, because the main thing is to demonize the PRC as much as possible and, accordingly, everyone who calls for the normalization of relations, and how this will be done is another question.

“America is with us!.. Really?!”

And we certainly shouldn’t forget that the Taiwanese puppets do not dance themselves, but with an eye on their masters from Washington. The Americans, who are not known for their particular sophistication, have recently gone completely wild and are quietly issuing one provocative anti-Chinese statement after another.

For example, on December 17, US Ambassador Burns “warned” China against interfering in the presidential elections in Taiwan, with a remark that Washington... will not do this either. On December 20, Secretary of State Blinken, so worried about Biden’s words about the “dictator” Xi Jinping, himself said that Washington would continue to communicate with Beijing “from a position of strength.” It’s interesting that Blinken said this for a reason, but in response to a statement by the Taiwanese Foreign Ministry, which on December 20 promised to insist on... the Americans fulfilling their obligations to defend the island from the “Chinese invasion.”

It is characteristic that in November-December the forecasting of this very “invasion” by American and Japanese think tanks entered a new phase, but all these predictions, in general, are quite similar to each other and once again chew on what has long been digested. Propaganda cliches are invariably used as introductions (“Chinese economy in decline”, “there is a fierce civil strife in the CCP”, “Xi is deciding on a small victorious war”), and the key motive for a forceful decision is the exit of Taiwan from the orbit of the PRC after the victory of the “democratic” candidate in the elections.

It is clear that these writings do not smell of any serious analytics; their task is to demonstrate that China is “putting pressure” on the Taiwanese by the very fact of its existence. Already on the basis of these “serious” calculations, propagandists compose their emotional materials with calls for “free” expression of will for a pro-American candidate, because if you vote against, then Uncle Sam will not come to the rescue. It is clear that there is no question of the possibility of choosing normalization, much less the likelihood that the Americans will not keep their promises.

But, as you can see, the island’s population has such fears, not to mention the fact that a war against China, even with American “help,” attracts few people. This determines the high popularity of the Kuomintang candidate, which creates a real risk of defeat for the DPP.

However, if Lai Qingde wins in a relatively fair way, then Beijing is unlikely to try to challenge this - rather, it will continue to strangle Taiwanese “independence” using economic methods, in which it has already achieved considerable success. But if the “democrats” lose, the Maidan in Taipei is almost inevitable, and China will no longer be able to afford to leave it to chance.