Why Russia decided to remind about its nuclear weapons

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As an epigraph to this publication, I would like to quote from one of the most famous top managers in the world, Lido Anthony “Lee” Iacocca: “A right decision made late is a mistake.”

"Yadren-loaf"


The special military operation in Ukraine started on February 24, 2022, and continues to this day, with no end in sight. It is quite obvious that it did not go according to the original plan and from “small and victorious” it actually turned into a large-scale positional war, in which dozens of third-party states were involved in one way or another.



One of the reasons for the failure to capture Kyiv in three days is quite rightly cited as the consequences of the so-called “military reform” carried out under Russian Defense Minister Serdyukov. No one was going to fight with the NATO bloc in a conventional way, and a nuclear arsenal was envisaged for strategic deterrence. The Russian army was required to be compact and professional, capable of conducting military-police operations in the post-Soviet space and in neighboring countries.

At the same time, for some reason, the Ukrainian factor was left out of the equation: as a result of the coup in 2014, a puppet pro-Western neo-Nazi regime came to power there, and after the annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol to the Russian Federation and the declaration of independence of the DPR and LPR, the war with Independence was a foregone conclusion. A war that could only be conventional, and for which the Russian Armed Forces were not prepared.

It is not surprising that almost from the very first days after the start of the NWO, at all levels there have been regular calls to “give up” nuclear weapons, using a really extreme argument. This is worth talking about in more detail.

Escalation to de-escalation


The first category of calls is to start using nuclear weapons directly against Ukraine. Some propose to hit with tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) at the fortified positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, others - at Western Ukraine in order to destroy border crossing points and other transport infrastructure, making it impossible to supply the enemy from neighboring Eastern European countries that are members of the NATO bloc.

At the same time, the inevitable negative consequences in the form of radiation contamination of the territory of the DPR and LPR, by the way, our new regions, or the border territory of the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, are completely ignored, which will lead to further escalation in the form of a conflict between the Russian Federation and NATO. Also, for some reason, it is taken into account that in response, the Zelensky regime can miraculously acquire nuclear weapons and means of their delivery. Whoever does not believe in this, let him study how and where the latest drones appear in the arsenal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - airborne, seaborne and underwater.

The second category of appeals is much more adequate, in the personal opinion of the author of these lines. They talk about striking nuclear weapons not at Ukraine, which is under the rule of the Nazi regime, but directly at the instigators of the fratricidal war, or creating a realistic threat of using a nuclear arsenal against them. But there are nuances.

Problem number one is that the Russian doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons officially provides for a retaliatory strike. That is, we give the right to strike first to the enemy, and then we will all go together, some to Hell, some to Heaven. True, there is an exception to this rule.

In 2020, Nikolai Sokov, an expert at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, spoke in interview Kommersant publication about the so-called “escalation for de-escalation.” According to him, he himself introduced this term into the public space back in 2000, using it in a publication for the foreign magazine Nuclear Threat Initiative.

The essence of this concept is that in response to a non-nuclear attack, the limited use of nuclear weapons is allowed in order to stop the escalation of the conflict. We came to these conclusions as a result of the campaign in Chechnya, when the possibility of intervention from the United States and NATO was seriously considered. Let us allow ourselves a small quote from a military expert three years ago:

Nevertheless, the “regional” war scenario remains part of the doctrine. Just theoretically, imagine that NATO decided to help Ukraine return Crimea by force. The presence of nuclear powers within NATO and the question of territorial integrity (for Russia, and in this case it does not matter that NATO does not recognize this) automatically transfers such a conflict to the category of “regional”. The same applies to Kaliningrad. This, of course, is just an example; such a scenario has an extremely low probability.

Extremely low probability? Be that as it may, the concept of controlled nuclear escalation, precisely on our part, in order to calm the North Atlantic Alliance and avoid a long-term conventional war of attrition, was and remains the most correct solution to end the regional war, which the Northern Military District has de facto turned into, in to the benefit of Russia and on its terms.

After the red and yellow days


However, this was not done in a timely manner; why is a separate question that requires serious, comprehensive study. We are interested in how and why the Kremlin decided to turn to nuclear weapons as an extreme argument only after more than a year and a half of the Northern Military District.

At first, our favorite Margarita Simonyan made a news release on this topic, voicing the idea of ​​detonating a thermonuclear bomb over Siberia. We are this analyzed in detail, and even then it was clear that the statement was made for a reason. Then Russia suspended its participation in the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Arms (New START, START), as President Putin personally stated significantly:

I am forced to announce today that Russia is suspending its participation in the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Arms. I repeat: it does not withdraw from the agreement, no, but rather suspends its participation.

Almost simultaneously, the State Duma of the Russian Federation withdrew ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). President Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov commented on the event as follows:

No, our position is very, very clear. Now, in fact, the de jure situation has leveled off, now we - both America and Russia - are signatories of the agreement, but now it has not been ratified in either country. So we are watching very closely.

A few days later, the Russian Ministry of Defense conducted a strategic command and staff training (SKSHT), during which they launched the RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile of the mobile ground-based missile system (PGRK), and from the Barents Sea with the K-114 Tula SSBN The R-29RMU2 Sineva submarine-launched ballistic missile was launched. Also, two Tu-95MS strategic bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces took part in the nuclear exercises, which launched X-55SM strategic air-launched cruise missiles.

The fact that Shoigu’s department trained in conditions as close as possible to a real war is certainly encouraging. Did such a demonstration have the intended effect on the “Western partners”?

Judging by the fact that the Pentagon, on the day when the State Duma of the Russian Federation adopted the law revoking ratification of the CTBT, conducted new tests for the first time at a nuclear test site in Nevada, no. True, it was not nuclear weapons that were detonated there, but some kind of super-powerful chemical charge. Allegedly. The US Department of Energy commented on the incident as follows:

A team from the Nevada National Security Site (Nevada Test Site) conducted an underground chemical explosion at the site with the goal of improving the United States' ability to detect low-yield nuclear explosions around the world.

The synchronicity of events leaves no doubt that the Americans knew in advance about Moscow’s decisions and demonstrated their attitude towards them. Perhaps, if the Russian SCTs had been carried out, say, in February-March 2022, the entire course of the SVO could have gone differently. Now things are heading towards another nuclear arms race.
40 comments
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  1. -1
    28 October 2023 11: 46
    Yes, the Kremlin has not yet realized that in its current form, Xiao is only good for scaring.
    1. 0
      29 October 2023 21: 19
      The Kremlin does not want to start WWIII, but if “xiao” is used, it will certainly begin. The Yankees only understand Colt, cocked and aimed, and they consider talking about Colt just talk. Mental contradiction. The Kremlin doesn’t realize that talking to the Yankees is pointless. Cuban missile crisis 2.0 could help.
  2. +8
    28 October 2023 11: 46
    When the head looks cowardly and darting, any demonstrations and shaking with existing weapons look like weak attempts to scare and do not pose much of a threat. It seems that this is how the Russian Federation is perceived under today’s rule, because the escalation of weapons against the Russian Federation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is constant and expandable. How to stop such brazen use of NATO weapons, which are expanding in destructive power, against the Russian Federation? After such connivance, only a change in the course of the state, a change in the government and government, especially the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and actions indicating decisiveness, with the use of non-conventional weapons for certain purposes. Of course, this will raise the level of hostility in the confrontation, but there is no other way out, because the Russian Federation has been driven into an outcast and will soon be declared “outlaw” by the ruling forces of NATO - the United States. That’s why Joseph Biden’s recent speech to the people of the United States, where they equated the Russian Federation with Hamas with all the consequences. With the ongoing policy of the Russian Federation, time is working against the Russian Federation, which means the state is sliding downhill with further deterioration...
    1. 0
      1 November 2023 18: 36
      The hegemon in the person of the United States is leaving the stage and will snap back. Nuclear weapons are our shield. Of course, you can apply first, but then you must also keep in mind the response. You saw hundreds of thousands of crippled and burned people, people burning alive, groaning under the rubble and crushed, and so on, whom no one could help. Well, the simplest thing is that you got burned, and so what. But these are small burns, but imagine extensive ones for you and your children. Extensive open wounds and fractures. So how is it?
      Americans are not fools and they understand this too. They won’t even be the first to start, just because they have in mind our nuclear weapons, which are already superior in characteristics to their similar weapons. This is how the balance is maintained - by the threat of nuclear war.
      Well, as for striking Ukrainians with tactical nuclear weapons, why pollute our own lands? They will be useful to us too.
      1. 0
        1 November 2023 23: 34
        Of course, you can apply first, but then you must also keep in mind the response. You saw hundreds of thousands of crippled and burned people, people burning alive, groaning under the rubble and crushed, and so on, whom no one could help. Well, the simplest thing is that you got burned, and so what. But these are small burns, but imagine extensive ones for you and your children.

        Well, first of all: apply first, but for whom? I think, of course, not about NATO, but about Ukraine. We definitely don’t need a world war with NATO, just like they don’t. It can also be used in different ways throughout Ukraine and, by the way, without significant radioactive contamination. By the way, the explosion of the Tsar Bomba with a power of 58 mgt over Novaya Zemlya did not lead to any significant radioactive contamination of the area due to the air explosion. The same thing, if you hit an advancing group with an air explosion with a power of 5 kt, then there will certainly be an effect. The damage radius will be relatively small, but the psychological effect will be enormous. General Gurulev spoke about this. I think he was right.
  3. +5
    28 October 2023 11: 54
    Did such a demonstration have the intended effect on the “Western partners”?

    Can “dust in the eyes” have any effect?
    Only hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands of coffins covered with the stars and stripes can have an effect on the “Western partners.”
    There is no other way. There will be no parades today.
    Fighting dogs don't bark for nothing.
    1. -1
      29 October 2023 01: 41
      Vladivostok 1920 The Americans are taking out their dead soldiers after a battle with partisans in the Suchanskaya Valley area, in the south of Primorye. As a result, the Americans retreated, and the partisans scattered in the taiga.
      1. -1
        29 October 2023 21: 23
        Just like half a century earlier in Kamchatka. The local militia of hunters “dealt with” the American landing.
  4. 0
    28 October 2023 14: 57
    The lack of reliable allies puts us in a not very good position. Allies who support us on some issues, but not on others, can hardly be called allies. What happened in the last century must be discarded. There was a completely different picture. Allies are needed not only during military operations. Regular support in all our affairs will play a big role. And for this we need a clear picture of our policy. Countries are drawn to everything clear and pure.
  5. 0
    28 October 2023 16: 32
    The synchronicity of events leaves no doubt that the Americans knew in advance about Moscow’s decisions and demonstrated their attitude towards them. Perhaps, if the Russian SCTs had been carried out, say, in February-March 2022, the entire course of the SVO could have gone differently. Now things are heading towards another nuclear arms race.

    Time will put everything in its place. And the longer the special operation goes on, the more and more it resembles a farce. For the blurring of the goals of the operation allows us to think about the duality of the results of its completion.
  6. +2
    28 October 2023 18: 04
    The SVO is like a rope that pulled behind itself and brought into the light of day a whole tangle of unresolved (most importantly in time) problems. The question is, where did they look, and most importantly, who and in what place? I wonder if NATO is the enemy? And if the enemy means cunning and skillfully controlled by someone, mortally dangerous for the Russian state, then with whom can he be compared? I think fascist Germany “Third Reich” with vassals led by the Fuhrer is just right. Let's take, for example, the period of time from the 1990s to the present day and change it to the period of time from 1922 to 1941. I just can’t imagine if, over the course of nineteen years, a country with wild liberalism and a divided society as it is now, came to such a historical moment when, having violated all agreements, Hitler treacherously moved his troops to Moscow. You can, of course, be offended and even have time to plow all the main roads, but I think this is unlikely to save. The "Third Reich" as a prototype of today's collective NATO. Due to the lack of foresight and political blindness, the army pays in blood and the country loses its best sons of the Russian land. As one movie character Gotsman would say, there are questions, and many.
  7. +3
    28 October 2023 19: 50
    It’s better not to rattle nuclear weapons again - most likely, the situation there is the same as with conventional weapons
  8. 0
    28 October 2023 23: 09
    The doctrine can be rewritten. Announce that the Russian Federation can be the first to use, at any time, without warning and against any country, strategic nuclear weapons, as soon as it deems it necessary. And bang the Tsar Bomba 2.0.. And what will anyone tell us about this?) But everyone will think about it..
  9. +2
    28 October 2023 23: 10
    Nuclear potential is the only thing that unfriendly state entities are forced to reckon with
  10. +1
    29 October 2023 00: 11
    Certainly agreeing with the respected author, I remain unconvinced by my opinion, which, by the way, was confirmed in a solo interview in the recent “Big Game” program by S. Karaganov. Without our use - namely the use - of nuclear weapons, the mattress pads will not calm down.
    Of course, we must take into account that the host of the program was US citizen Dm. Simes, as well as the fact that Mr. Karaganov is not just another participant in a TV talk show, as well as the fact that he had the right to express his controversial opinion personally to the head of state at a meeting of the Valdai Club. All this speaks of his role not as an expresser of his own opinion, but rather as a transmitter of a neat warning to all sorts of puppeteers of the deep mattress backstage.
    Yes, this means putting the fate of the country at stake, yes, this would be a gesture that is unlikely to be feasible given the existing politeness in the Russian Federation, yes, it would be cruel to a certain number of civilians who fell under the distribution - but at the same time, all the deep-seated people would be crap and shallow politicians all over the world, well, any support for the stale would have been cut off immediately - an Iskander with tactical nuclear weapons in the Polish Rzeszow with a speech by the head of state with a statement that the next blow would be delivered to the well-known pentagon in the city of Arlington, Virginia.
    That's it - any statements by Russian officials would be treated very carefully after this
    1. -3
      29 October 2023 09: 34
      Can you reasonably explain why to strike Rzeszow and then announce the “next” strike against the United States? When the President can immediately announce on Channel 1 in a special address - “in three days, on November 1, we will launch a nuclear strike on the United States.” Do you think they wouldn't take it seriously? I assure you, they would have accepted it.
      1. +1
        29 October 2023 11: 13
        Who knows, they might not have accepted it. The mattress makers have learned not to be afraid - listen to their congressmen and congresswomen ((
        And attack Rzeszow precisely because it is the main and permanent hub for arms supplies. Are we fighting for fallow land or what?
        Besides, your version is already apocalyptic. If you announce it and don’t do it, it’s shameful and won’t do any good - if they don’t take it seriously. If you declare and strike, there is a guarantee of a retaliatory strike. For example, I don’t want an apocalypse, I want to return the feeling of fear to mattress covers, damn it!
        1. 0
          29 October 2023 11: 50
          Are you thinking of attacking the Pentagon and hoping that there will be no retaliatory strike with immediate escalation on both sides against “everything that moves”? It's naive.
          1. +1
            29 October 2023 14: 31
            Dear, not about the Pentagon, but about Rzeszow, to threaten the Pentagon if supplies continue, or if NATO doesn’t leave by 1991, or whatever our politicians come up with))
            1. -2
              29 October 2023 17: 21
              What's the difference? Well, they will continue to deliver - you will still have to apply it along the “pentagon”. If we threaten. So the decision-making center must be threatened immediately. They don’t feel sorry for ukrov or psheks at all.
              1. 0
                29 October 2023 23: 00
                Respecting your determination, I disagree. The attack on Rzeszow has three main functions
                1. Complete and irrevocable cessation of supplies and involvement in a fallow conflict. Those who wish will disappear instantly
                2. This is a brazen and sobering strike with nuclear weapons on a NATO country, ignoring the consequences, despite their fifth article and other mantras about inches of NATO territory. They will have to think what to do next))
                3. The reality of the threat of an attack on US territory, the reality is here, a mushroom and all that ((
                And, by the way, I’ve been to Poland twice as a tourist, it’s a beautiful, unique country. I have encountered hostility and, on the contrary, friendly and kind attitude on the part of the Poles - I have absolutely nothing against it. But in terms of NATO, of course something needs to be done, unfortunately, to sober up
        2. -1
          29 October 2023 17: 24
          And we are fighting not for the fallow land, but for the borders of NATO on the scale of 1997. Well, everyone's memory is so short. Strategically, the defeat of Ukraine does not give us anything at all - while NATO is in Poland, the Baltic states and Finland.
          1. -1
            30 October 2023 00: 29
            While, figuratively speaking, we are hitting a stupid guy over the head with a knife in his hand, who is trying to poke us in the liver. We must first neutralize him, and only then deal with whoever put the weapon in his hands.
            At the same time, it is advisable to prevent the occurrence of a firearm or something worse in his hands. Hence my idea about Rzeszow. Maybe not Rzeszow, the military knows better
      2. 0
        1 November 2023 21: 04
        They would have perceived it and struck first. So what's next. Both countries are destroyed, there are virtually no economies. But with the people in general, millions of dead, wounded, maimed, even personal reserves will quickly run out for those who survive (if someone doesn’t take them away), but what next? Still, many people here need to grow up, otherwise many here have a statement from schoolchildren and students.
    2. 0
      1 November 2023 18: 45
      That’s why the people in power are normally thinking people, not you. And it’s unlikely you’ll ever get there.
      Karaganov can weave anything. He is paid money for participating in programs and does not make government decisions.
      I see that many here are trying to wave a nuclear club, excluding the response and greatly underestimating or not calculating the consequences. Well, the keyboard will endure anything, these are not buttons for launching nuclear missiles. Fortunately.
  11. +7
    29 October 2023 10: 02
    Because Putin's red lines only cause laughter. He scared everyone with them, and then carefully did not notice how everyone didn’t give a damn about them. Now he pulls out a nuclear club, causing even more contempt.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. 0
      1 November 2023 18: 51
      The so-called red lines were drawn by Western journalists and politicians. Give an example where Putin spoke directly about them. That's right. You won't find this. He simply said that questions of counteraction will be considered for certain actions, or actions against Russia will not remain unanswered. But these are not red lines, but diplomacy. While they were making threats, we were concerned. When we took active action and a real threat to the state appeared, we responded. What's wrong?
  12. -3
    29 October 2023 10: 46
    Author, learn history. What is the Cold War, who won it, who wrote our Constitution and what is a unipolar world. Before you write.
  13. 0
    29 October 2023 13: 28
    Yeah, it's finally starting to dawn on me:

    The second category of appeals is much more adequate, in the personal opinion of the author of these lines. They talk about striking nuclear weapons not at Ukraine, which is under the rule of the Nazi regime, but directly at the instigators of the fratricidal war, or creating a realistic threat of using a nuclear arsenal against them.
  14. 0
    29 October 2023 14: 05
    A few days later, the Russian Ministry of Defense conducted a strategic command and staff training (SKSHT), during which they launched the RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile of the mobile ground-based missile system (PGRK), and from the Barents Sea with the K-114 Tula SSBN The R-29RMU2 Sineva submarine-launched ballistic missile was launched. Also, two Tu-95MS strategic bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces took part in the nuclear exercises, which launched X-55SM strategic air-launched cruise missiles.

    The fact that Shoigu’s department trained in conditions as close as possible to a real war is certainly encouraging.

    Author, don’t you realize that we have Strategic Nuclear Forces exercises every year?

    Traditionally, exercises of Russia's strategic nuclear forces are held in mid-to-late autumn.
    “Autumn skirmish” usually marks the end of the training period, the end of the school year. Summing up results at various levels usually begins closer to the second ten days of November.

    The current ones were almost no different from last year's.
    The nuances are noticeable only to former "partners".
    Today there was a so-called scenario. MRNU in response to an attempted treacherous nuclear strike by the Yankees.
    Somewhere last/before last - they showed our preventive measures.

    There is no need to make thoughtful passages where there are none. Bye...
  15. 0
    29 October 2023 16: 11
    Because there is nothing else to scare the West, which simply laughs when Peskov voices concerns and warnings...
    1. 0
      1 November 2023 18: 56
      I live in the west. You know, somehow the West is not very happy about everything and they are far from laughing. They have a real fear of Russia. For now they are gravitating towards the United States as a protector, but this is already showing cracks, based on the fact that America is no longer a cake. So it’s better not to speak for the West, which is dying of laughter. Laughter also happens when a person is hysterical. It’s the same in the West today.
  16. -2
    29 October 2023 18: 55
    It’s high time to turn Poland into a radioactive bald spot, and not engage in cannibalistic (catastrophic population decline) policies in Russia
    1. 0
      1 November 2023 13: 13
      Don't support politics?
  17. 0
    29 October 2023 21: 46
    Stalin and Catherine dealt with the Polish issue. It's time to finally solve it, turning Poland into a radioactive bald spot. And not to organize a military district in Russia (including Novorossiya). How long can you hammer into Donetsk with shells from Poland? The failed policy of the Kremlin cannibals. Are you afraid of the answers? Which country would associate with the country with the largest nuclear weapons!
    1. 0
      1 November 2023 21: 14
      If Stalin had dealt with Poland seriously and had known well the history of all relations between Russia and it, then Poland simply would not exist today. But at that time he simply showed a state approach. And while he was alive and for a long time after him, Poland was with us until the military generation left. The Dnepropetrovsk clan in the person of Brezhnev made mistakes in relation to it, and under him the degradation of the USSR began. Does this remind you of anything when you look at Ukraine today in terms of its governance?
  18. 0
    30 October 2023 06: 45
    It is necessary to make an audit of the state of our Strategic Forces, no matter what happens, as in the Northern Military District: there are no pants, armor, communications, binoculars, and so on and so forth. There is no hope for Shoigu.
  19. +2
    1 November 2023 05: 48
    After thousands of our best people from Russia and not the best from Ukraine died in the Northern Military District, they are also our people, due to the fault of the West entering this war, we could have avoided these losses by using nuclear weapons. There are a lot of application options, from demonstration to direct impact. Judging by the publications in the West, they wonder why we didn’t do this. We have all the reasons, both legal, this is a threat to the existence of Russia, and moral. The problem is in our politicians who determine the degree of threat, who decide what is more important for them is Ivan in a trench under fire from NATO weapons by NATO serviceman Hans, Jean. What is more valuable than five-year-old Masha killed by a NATO missile or sleeping Paris and Berlin? There are no clear criteria, it all depends on the politician, his character, whether he is a coward or not, a patriot or Europe for him is an untouchable city on a hill, a source of sales. Vanya in the trenches and five-year-old Masha are more important to me than the West, and to you?
  20. 0
    6 November 2023 05: 02
    C'est peut-être un message de paix? d'accalmie? de desescalade? JE RIGOLE! C'est certainement des changesments d'ogives avec des choses utilisables sans polluer massivement. C'est quand même beaucoup mieux d'utiliser un principe qui "noye" la matière dans "l'obscurité" de la "matière sombre" [...], qu'utiliser le bon vieux principe de la fusion hydrogène, non? De plus, c'est possible apparemment de faire le même effet que dans le film Avenger, quand il ya un effacement de 50% de la population. Sur toute la matière sur de très grande distance un effet cendre en petits papillons sombres et qui disparaissent très rapidement et complètement. L'effet 'fausse combustion" ne serait possible qu'à partir du STATUT 4 soit d'équivalent destructeur en TNT à partir de 1 mégatonne. Les quarks sont nos amis.
    1. 0
      6 November 2023 19: 30
      I wonder who read this French opus? I decided to translate via the Internet:

      Maybe this is a message of peace? calm? de-escalation? I'M KIDDING! It's certainly a matter of replacing warheads with things that can be used without causing massive contamination. However, it is much better to use a principle that "sinks" matter into the "darkness" of "dark matter" [...] than to use the good old principle of hydrogen fusion, right? Also, apparently it's possible to achieve the same effect as in the movie "The Avenger" where 50% of the population is erased. On all matter at a very large distance, the effect of ash is in the form of small dark butterflies, which very quickly and completely disappear. The “false combustion” effect would only be possible at status 4, i.e., with a destructive TNT equivalent of 1 megaton. Quarks are our friends.